Earnings Labs

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

Q1 2011 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 21, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Newmont Mining First Quarter and Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to turn the call over to John Seaberg, Vice President of Investor Relations for Newmont Mining Corporation. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

John Seaberg

Analyst

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our first quarter 2011 earnings call. With me today are the members of our executive leadership team. They will be available for questions at the end of the presentation. Before we get started, I'd like to refer you to our cautionary statement on Slide 2, as we will be discussing forward-looking information, which is subject to a number of risks, as further described in our SEC filings, which can be filed -- sorry, which can be found on our website at newmont.com. And now I'll turn the call over to Richard O'Brien, our President and Chief Executive Officer.

Richard O'Brien

Analyst · JPMorgan

Thanks, John. For those of you on the webcast, we'll begin on Slide 3. First of all, I want to thank all of you who attended our Investor Day two weeks ago, either in person or via the webcast. We've got a lot of positive and constructive feedback from the investment community on our approach to deliver growth with good returns. Specifically at Investor Day, we announced plans to grow from our current outlook of 5.1 to 5.3 million ounces of gold production for 2011 to approximately 7 million ounces of annual production by 2017. And that is a 35% growth net of decline, while simultaneously returning capital to shareholders to enhance their exposure to gold price. We've also heard that you want more color on our gold price link dividend and on the timing of our production from our projects and our growth plan. We plan on covering both of those in our call today. In addition to that, we'll provide highlights for our first quarter results. And our first quarter results were very solid with the benefit of robust gold and copper price environment, combined with strong operating results. We continue to have a rock-solid balance sheet and the potential to generate significant additional cash flow. This, combined with the commitment and enthusiasm of our workforce across the globe, gives me confidence that we will deliver on our growth plan. And now to recap our first quarter performance, I'll turn the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Russell Ball.

Russell Ball

Analyst · Stifel

Thanks, Richard. Good morning, all. Turning to Slide 4. As you can see, we had another strong quarter due to a combination of our continued focus on safe execution and delivery and strong metal prices, gold in particular. A few highlights from the quarter. We realized an average gold price of $1,382 an ounce, and while the record is approximately $115 below current spot prices. We generated record operating cash flow of almost $1 billion, a 36% increase over last year on a 25% increase in gold price. It is clear to me that the company-wide focus on operational execution and delivery is being driven to the bottom line in an environment of expanding margins, as reflected in the operating cash flow for the quarter. Attributable gold production was 1.3 million ounces, slightly the same as [ph] last year and slightly ahead of our budget for the first quarter. Attributable copper production decreased to 57 million pounds driven by lower production at Batu Hijau in Indonesia, as we strip for Phase 6 and process lower-grade stockpiles. We should access Phase 6 ore in late 2013. Copper production was, however, ahead of budget for the quarter. As far as the bottom line, there was essentially no difference between reported net income and our adjusted net income figures shown on the slide of $513 million or $1.04 a share, a really clean quarter from an income statement perspective. Continuing on Slide 5, revenue for the quarter was up 10% to $2.5 billion. On the cost side, cost applicable to sales were up 17% and 42%, respectively, with higher copper operating cost driven by lower production at Batu Hijau, as previously mentioned. On gold operating costs. Starting this quarter, we have added 2 non-GAAP metrics that we think will provide investors with a…

Brian Hill

Analyst

Thanks, Russell. We summarized our regional operating performance on the Slide 12, and year-over-year growth production was essentially unchanged at 1.3 million ounces, with higher contributions from our Africa region. They were offset by lower production from South America, while North America and APAC production was essentially flat. Consolidated costs applicable to sales were 17% higher than last year due to lower production in South America, as well as higher waste mining, milling and diesel costs in North America. And as Russell mentioned a few minutes ago, this is generally in line with our industry as a whole. Commencing our regional discussion on Slide 13 with North America, you'll see a recent picture of the gold quarry area in Nevada where remediation from the slide that took place in December 2009 is nearing completion. Over 40 million tons of alluvium and bedrock have been removed, and all of the equipment that was trapped by the slide has been safely recovered. We are currently mining fresh ore feed for Mill 5, and approximately 50% of the ore going to Mill 5 is direct from gold quarry. Turning to first quarter results. Attributable gold production in North America was 482,000 ounces, up 2% over last year's first quarter. This increase was primarily due to higher leach placement at the Soledad-Dipolos pit at La Herradura in Mexico. Gold ounces produced in Nevada were virtually unchanged in the first quarter of 2011 from 2010, as higher mill production from underground sources was offset by a lower leach placement due to mine sequencing. North American costs applicable to sales per ounce increased 7% in the first quarter of 2011 from 2010 due to higher waste mining, milling and diesel costs, and lower leach production in Nevada. This was partially offset by higher copper and silver…

Richard O'Brien

Analyst · JPMorgan

Thanks, Brian. As mentioned at the beginning of the call, we'd like to provide some additional detail on the growth plan that we announced in our recent Investor Day. First, I'll recap our growth strategy on Slide 17. As shown, we plan to grow 35% to about 7 million ounces of attributable gold production by 2017 from a base of our current outlook of 5.1 of 5.3 million ounces of gold for 2011. In order to get to that 7 million ounce run rate in 2017, we need to bring about 3.2 million ounces of incremental production online over the next few years to offset the decline in the balance of our portfolio. Our growth will be faced in, with about 20% of our new growth reflected in production by 2013, 50% by 2015 and the balance expected to be in production by 2017. On Slide 18, we've added some additional color to the timing of that incremental production by breaking down our growth profile by project. I've noted that several analysts have already got this fairly close, and so we're providing some information that some of you may not need, but in the interest of clarity, we're going to give it to everybody in this format. The sequence begins with the Subika and Nevada expansions where development is advancing, and it goes all the way through the commencement of production at Long Canyon, which we expect, as shown on this slide, in 2017. If you'd like to reference this growth plan against our potential decline, we would direct you to the detailed regional waterfall that we provided in our Investor Day where we gave the regional decline for each of our operations. As we previously told you, 5.1 to 5.3 million ounces is our current base, and we expect…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from John Bridges, JPMorgan. John Bridges - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Many thanks for the information, especially Slide 18. That makes life a whole lot easier. Wish I could run my model of that. Just wondered, the higher grades in Africa at Ahafo, can you give us a little bit more color that and how confident you are that you're only going to make your current guidance there?

Brian Hill

Analyst

John, it's Brian. Towards the end of last year, with some of the mine sequencing changes we made, we stockpiled some fairly higher-grade ore coming out of Apensu. So in the first quarter, we actually ran that higher-grade material through the plant. And with the higher grades, we also saw some higher recovery as well. So we kind of see that as more of a one-off, which we had happened in the Ahafo. So we're still -- even though we did have quite a good quarter, we're still expecting to produce in that original guidance range by year end. John Bridges - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Okay. How much flexibility do you have in the pit to go after higher grade areas, or just accelerate into Subika and sweeten up the feed that way?

Brian Hill

Analyst

We have some flexibility. We don't have a lot of flexibility actually in Subika because, as you know, the portal to go underground is on the one side of the wall where we're doing all the exploration work underground. So we do have some flexibility out of Apensu and out of Awonsu. But for the balance of this year, we don't expect to see any significant changes over the last three quarters that would cause us to sort of look at the significant different production profile. John Bridges - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Okay. And then Australia was a bit ahead of expectation as well. What's going on down there?

Brian Hill

Analyst

In Australia, good results coming out of the Tanami and KCGM, and Boddington essentially performing on par. So we have seen some of the other operations perform extremely well in Australia as well. So really coming out of those two, the switch to owner-operated underground mining at the Tanami is -- we're seeing some significant positive improvement in operation there. So really coming out of Tanami and KCGM. John Bridges - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Okay. Excellent. Many Thanks, congratulations, and I'll get out of the way and make room for somebody else. Thank you.

Richard O'Brien

Analyst · JPMorgan

Thanks, John.

Operator

Operator

Next question, a question from George Topping with Stifel. George Topping - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: On the Australian mines, I see cash cost go from $560 an ounce in Q1, and I think the guidance is, a midpoint, about $735. Can you give an indication of how that's going to increase through the quarters?

Russell Ball

Analyst · Stifel

George, sorry, I -- can you repeat the number you said for the guidance because I don't think that it's the number I was looking at. Sorry. George Topping - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: The guidance, $700 to $770 per ounce, other Australian/New Zealand.

Russell Ball

Analyst · Stifel

George, some of that will be currency. Fairly, we have a decent early dollar hedge book but it's $1.05. You're starting to see the impact of the currency on that. We could get into some more detail, maybe we can take it offline and get back to you there with some inventory movements, and we'll get some more of that. In Batu, we'll have a tougher second half of the year. We'd work through some inventory in the first quarter at least. So a number of factors moving around, largely driven by production.

Randy Engel

Analyst · Stifel

Just maybe comment on the numbers. It's Randy. We've got $600 to $675, is the cost guidance for the entire region. Now the CapEx guidance on the next column over there is $650 to $750. But you'll see, coming out of Australia, the highest cost figures that we quoted, $700 to $770 for other Australian/New Zealand, that's going to come from some higher cost operations, particularly at Tanami and Jundee. George Topping - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. Good. That's what I was looking for. Also, I noticed on Slide 18 that the Elang isn't mentioned. Could you give us an update on how the restart of the exploration program is going there?

Guy Lansdown

Analyst · Stifel

Sure. This is Guy. We have just recently got the permit to start exploration at Elang. So the focus is now to reestablish camp facilities, start working with the community and then continue with drilling operations. But at the moment, that's what we're going to focus on, and that's sort of one of the project that sits in our pipeline further out in the production profile. George Topping - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Right. Okay. You have to start the exploration now?

Guy Lansdown

Analyst · Stifel

Yes. Correct. And we plan on starting this year with drilling. George Topping - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from John Bridges with JPMorgan. John Bridges - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Just follow-on. Given the big building program you've got ahead of you, are you going to get to -- be more aggressive in putting hedges on, on the currencies and oil? Just wondered what you're going to do there.

Russell Ball

Analyst · JPMorgan

John, we continue to look at that. We have a small oil book. Historically, the issue's been there around, getting the hedge accounting, so we don't have to take then off from market volatility. I'd say that we're probably going to cross the Rubicon in the not-too-distant future just taking economics on the hedges and letting the accounting move. And so we'll have to explain a little more noise on a quarterly basis. But as we look at the projects here, as we are looking at managing our costs around those projects, you will continue to see more cost-related hedging to not so much be able to pick bottoms but to reduce volatility, because we think of the end of the day, being able to reduce that volatility has values. So we will continue to look at opportunities both on the commodity, FX and interest rates side related to these projects. John Bridges - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Okay. Excellent. Now that makes sense. Thanks again.

Russell Ball

Analyst · JPMorgan

Thanks.

Richard O'Brien

Analyst · JPMorgan

And just for the avoidance of doubt, just underlying what Russ said, in the cost side, we do not hedge revenues. So just to be clear with anybody who didn’t understand that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the John Tumazos, John Tumazos Independent Research.

John Tumazos - Independent Research

Analyst

While you have a splendid array of projects, there's an anomaly where some gold stocks haven't gone up even as the price of gold seems to make new records almost every week. Long Canyon is a very good example of a transaction close to your infrastructure. Miramar, three years ago, is maybe a good example of a transaction out of your infrastructure. But could we expect further strengthening of the project queue, that's already strong, given that it's easier to find gold on Wall Street sometimes, make [indiscernible] oil industry than to spend time on exploration, et cetera.

Richard O'Brien

Analyst · JPMorgan

John, it's Richard. What I would say is 2 things that first, as you point out, our own exploration program is increased this year. We do know that historically, and as we project in the future, we can discover at the most optimal cost per ounce on new projects through our own exploration activities. So that's the first thing that we're focused on. From time to time, though, as you point out, whether it's Miramar or Long Canyon, we will take advantage of opportunities where we see upside, and perhaps the market doesn't fully appreciate that. But I would say that not a steady diet for us, it's something that will take on from time to time. In addition, I would just remind people that we tended to look at these acquisitions in a cash format, not one where we utilized shares. So that by itself helps define how big or how much we'll do. And lastly, I would just say, with the one-off in junior stocks, I don't think that it's always cheaper to buy things on Wall Street that it is through our own exploration efforts. So it's a combination approach for us. That's what we've shown historically. That's what -- we'll stick to it.

John Tumazos - Independent Research

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next question from David Christie with Scotia Capital.

David Christie - Scotia Capital Inc.

Analyst · Scotia Capital

Just quickly on the Batu Hijau, could you give me an idea, you said you had troubles in the second half of the year there, or it's going to be lower I guess. What's a great profile for the stockpiles for the year? Do you have an idea what that is?

Russell Ball

Analyst · Scotia Capital

David, it's Russ. Just briefly we had inventory at year end that we're working through both in the bond but also ahead of the crushers. So we're seeing that through. We disclose that average grade on the stockpiles, and that was in the table, and they are actually in the appendix to this release. It will move around a little on a quarterly basis depending on where we were accessing in those stockpiles, but you should look to that. And the current year's production profile is a reasonable indication of an annual basis, again, with some quarterly volatility, and that's gets accentuated a little bit by productivity in the wet season. For us, we're going into the dry season, so we have 2 months of nice, dry roads, and in the fourth quarter, a little more challenging. So as we look at our current production profile, we're roughly in there. We also do have a schedule down on the segmental replacement, which will allow a throughput for the balance of the year. So that is an extended down as a fairly significant rebuilt, and we will see that obviously impact the availability in production.

David Christie - Scotia Capital Inc.

Analyst · Scotia Capital

When they're down coming?

Russell Ball

Analyst · Scotia Capital

In May.

David Christie - Scotia Capital Inc.

Analyst · Scotia Capital

In May. Okay. In the last, what, 30 day or...

Russell Ball

Analyst · Scotia Capital

It's about a 45-day down, David.

David Christie - Scotia Capital Inc.

Analyst · Scotia Capital

Okay. And just Yanacocha, the tons declined, is that where the -- the tonnage throughput in this quarter that we should expect for the rest of the year?

Russell Ball

Analyst · Scotia Capital

Yes. That's sort of in line. This was last year, and then this year is a lower leach tonnage placement year. So that's sort of a fairly good projection for where we expect to be. We're still expecting to be within original guidance at Yanacocha by year end.

David Christie - Scotia Capital Inc.

Analyst · Scotia Capital

Great. And recoveries should be similar but tons would be the same as it was in this quarter. Okay. And I think that was it. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Michael Dudas with Jefferies & Company. Michael Dudas - Jefferies & Company, Inc.: Russell, great presentation, especially on the cost movement in the industry. As you look out for Newmont the next couple of years, as you're transitioning towards the growth, of the 10 items that impact industry average cost, what are the 2 or 3 that we can look for to focus on for Newmont as that will impact your company on a general basis?

Russell Ball

Analyst · Jefferies & Company

Thanks, Mike. Sure, yes. It's a very interesting perspective, and I would like to remind people, we currently look at the top line, we're going to look at the top end of cost line. And I think what we'll see if that thesis is correct, the weaker U.S. dollar will drive gold production cost curves up, because obviously the majority of gold production is outside the U.S. So I think FX is the one that's going to be industrywide. Again, if the thesis is correct on a weaker U.S. dollar, and you've seen that certainly on a trade-weighted basis over the last couple of modes. The other issues, obviously, fuel for us. Energy costs are about 25% of our cost structure. Again, we have budgeted at $90 oil, and we're sitting today at around $110. And if you think about labor costs, that's about 45% of our cost structure. And labor costs are largely for us non-dollar denominated. So I'd say those in conjunction with our lower grades. These deposits, the average grade has decreased, and you've seen that in the gold industry and in the copper industry, where grades have come up significantly. So I think you've got grade and you've got things working against you. And it is going to be a challenge for us, as Richard said earlier, maintaining our relative position on that cost curve and at the end of the day looking, as John suggested, to try and manage some of the volatility around those cost structures, but clearly some challenges. I think what you will see on the cost is $35 to $45 to $50, who knows where silver prices are going to be. A lot of the producers with significant silver byproduct will be shielded because, clearly, silver has had incredible run over the last 6 to 9 months that will offset some of those cost pressures. But those are ones that I lose sleep over, Mike. Michael Dudas - Jefferies & Company, Inc.: Fair enough. Just wished you had some rare earth to kind of offset some of that. Anyway, thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Pawel Rajszel with Veritas Investment Research.

Pawel Rajszel - Veritas Investment Research Corporation

Analyst · Veritas Investment Research

It's Pawel Rajszel here. And just working off of the production outlook midpoint, roughly 5.2 million ounces, adding the 3.2 million that you have slated for growth and declining by the 1.6 million, getting to those 6.8 million, and I noticed in the Investor Day, you had the 200,000 of production that was kind of classified under other. I'm wondering if you could just give some clarity on where that 200,000 would come from to get you to the 7 million?

Randy Engel

Analyst · Veritas Investment Research

Hi, it's Randy. I'll take that question. If you note in the same presentation, there was a slide that preceded that waterfall chart, and there were a few areas that we noted upside. In North America, the upside, we think there is good upside potential coming out of Hope Bay. In South America, we think there's good upside potentially in our portfolio in Suriname. In APAC, in our Asia-Pacific region, we have good upside coming out of KCGM. And then upside out of Africa, potentially coming out of Akyem. Those are the main areas where we see some of that adding up to 200 or perhaps slightly more.

Pawel Rajszel - Veritas Investment Research Corporation

Analyst · Veritas Investment Research

Okay. Great. And earlier you had mentioned that you're looking for other opportunities to return capital to shareholders. Just wondering what your views are on share buybacks, especially if we get gold prices that are sustaining around the $1,500 mark that we have now?

Richard O'Brien

Analyst · Veritas Investment Research

It's Richard. I'd just say at $1,500 there's a world of opportunity for us, and share buyback is certainly a tool that we could use. I think the gold price link dividend is one that provides some certainty and flexibility in that upward pricing environment, and there's an opportunity to share more with investors over time through that should we choose to do so. And then, additionally, I think with additional cash flow comes the ability to accelerate some of the production that we might have and some of our other projects that aren't even listed here. So I think that additional cash flow is really an opportunity for us to continue to underlie that growth with more certainty over time, provide more flexibly over time and provide the opportunity for our shareholders to benefit through not just upward sloping production but also upward sloping cash return. So a share buyback is certainly one of the tools we could use, but one of many.

Pawel Rajszel - Veritas Investment Research Corporation

Analyst · Veritas Investment Research

I agree. And the just leading into that, I guess Hope Bay isn't in your timeline through 2017. What do you think it would take for that project to start to come in to the profile?

Richard O'Brien

Analyst · Veritas Investment Research

Well, as you know, in our Hope Bay project at the moment, we're driving a decline. We're actually advancing that project, we think, in a very responsible way to ensure that we know how big the deposit can be before we commit significant infrastructure. But we're spending significant dollars on exploration. We believe in the district. We think there's significant upside there. I think our conservative stance here would say, we're now ready to advance this into our production timeline that we have on Slide 18. And as Randy pointed out, it's one of many opportunities to bring into production. We'll keep the street updated on that at the moment. As I said, we are driving decline, and I think things continue to look good for us and we'll continue to keep you updated.

Pawel Rajszel - Veritas Investment Research Corporation

Analyst · Veritas Investment Research

Great. Thanks for that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David Christie with Scotia Capital.

David Christie - Scotia Capital Inc.

Analyst · Scotia Capital

One more question for you guys. On silver, you mentioned byproduct credits from silver, but I don't think you guys disclosed your silver grades anywhere. I was wondering if you could give me what your silver grades were at your probably -- your 2 most highest concentration of silver, be Yanacocha and La Herradura; is that right?

Russell Ball

Analyst · Scotia Capital

David, it's Russ. We'll have to get back to you. We don't track our silver grades, and we don't report them on our reserves. But to your question, we did produce a fair amount of silver out of Midas. If you look at -- in the North America, Midas is the big producer and then Yanacocha, although the recovery is low, we did produce significant silver out of there, but I'll let John Seaberg to get back with you. Nearly at $5 no one paid too much attention to the silver production, but around $40 to $50, it is nice and we'll take it as we get.

David Christie - Scotia Capital Inc.

Analyst · Scotia Capital

Yes, as long as the byproduct credits were increasing nicely. So thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next question, Adam Golaski with Goldman Sachs.

Adam Golaski

Analyst

You mentioned earlier that you are looking at acquisitions in a cash format, not in a format where you'll utilize shares. And you mentioned that, that approach limits your acquisition bite size. But you’ve still got greater than $5 billion of cash and marketables and liquidity on your balance sheet. So I'm wondering, is that the kind of bite size that we should be thinking about if we are thinking about how you might look at M&A opportunities?

Richard O'Brien

Analyst · JPMorgan

Just to be clear, what I said is one where -- I may not have said it clearly as I should have. When we look at acquisitions that don't bring current production, we would generally tend to use cash. And I think you could think of bite size as being kind of what we've done traditionally. Miramar was about $1.5 billion, Fronteer was about $2.3 billion. I think those are the sizes that are probably big enough for us, unless we see something clearly unusual, but again, just to emphasize, what we have on Slide 18 is really a way for us to underpin our growth without having to do additional acquisitions. And I think it's just additional upside for us. So we don't have to buy anything. If we do, we expect we'll buy it for value.

Adam Golaski

Analyst

Great. Thank you. The question just has to do with the gold price link dividend. Can you talk about -- and I apologize for not knowing this, because I'm sure you probably mentioned it already somewhere else. But if and when the gold price should ever fall, and let's hope it's a long time away, but how does the gold price dividend behave? Is there any ways stickier on the way down than on the way up?

Russell Ball

Analyst · Stifel

Adam, if you look at the slide on Slide 11 there, where we've showed a downward $1,100 gold price, we would be at a $0.40 annual dividend. Obviously, the dividend and the level of that dividend is a function of the board's approval, and we discuss that quarterly with them. But as you said, we have a very strong balance sheet, still generating significant cash flow, and even at that $1,100 gold price, as we stress test for the downside, we still have that availability to maintain that dividend. So anything for at least $1,100 are just -- we would obviously take that to the board in light of ongoing other operating costs and financial capability that we have on the balance sheet.

Richard O'Brien

Analyst · JPMorgan

And I'll just underlie that this is a company which just take a dividend for a long period of time indicating both the financial strength and desire to ensure that shareholders have a reason to stay on this stock for yield really. So we'll continue to look at that, as Russ said, every quarter, and that really is the way that our board will approach this policy.

Adam Golaski

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Elizabeth Collins with Morningstar.

Elizabeth Collins

Analyst · Morningstar

Can you give us a reminder of what Batu might look like once the ores reach in Phase 6? We have an idea of Phase 7 cost in production, but maybe you can give us a little bit more color on Phase 6 once the ores reach in late 2013?

Russell Ball

Analyst · Morningstar

Yes. Hi, it's Russ. Phase 6 will look very similar to Phase 5. We were right in the bottom of phase 5, so I would use 2010 as a reasonable proxy. What we see is the bottom of these phases of ore is a disproportionately higher gold production versus copper. So both the copper and gold grade increase, but the gold grade increases proportionately more so. I'd looked to Phase 5 as a reasonable approximation for what we'll see in Phase 6 in 2014 and '15.

Elizabeth Collins

Analyst · Morningstar

Thank you.

Richard O'Brien

Analyst · Morningstar

Thank you very much for your attention today, and we hope you all have a great weekend and a good Easter.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude the conference. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time.