Earnings Labs

Noble Corporation Plc (NE)

Q2 2017 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 4, 2017

$50.76

-5.30%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Christa, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Noble Corporation Second Quarter 2017 Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Jeff Chastain, Noble Corporation's Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Jeffrey L. Chastain - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Okay. Thank you, Christa, and welcome, everyone, to Noble Corporation's Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. We, as always, appreciate your interest in the company. In case you missed it, a copy of Noble's earnings report issued last evening along with all the supporting statements and schedules can be found on the Noble website. And, again, that's noblecorp.com Before I turn the call over to David Williams, I'd like to remind everyone that we may make statements about our operations, opportunities, plans, operational or financial performance, the drilling business or other matters that are not historical facts that are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. And our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are posted on our website, discuss the risks and uncertainties in our business and industry and the various factors that could keep outcomes of any forward-looking statements from being realized. This includes the price of oil and gas, customer demand, operational and other risks. Our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements and Noble does not assume any obligation to update these statements. Also note we are referencing non-GAAP financial measures in the call today. You will find the required supplemental disclosure for these measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP measure and an associated reconciliation, on our website. And then finally, consistent with our quarterly disclosure practices, once our call has concluded, we will post to our website a summary of the financial guidance covered on today's call, which will cover our third quarter and full year 2017 figures. With that, I'll now turn the call over to David Williams, Chairman, President and Chief Executive of Noble.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

All right. Thank you, Jeff, and good morning to everyone. We appreciate your interest in Noble and for the opportunity to review our second quarter results as well as some of other topics, which should be helpful in your evaluation of our company and the offshore industry. In addition to Jeff, this morning I am joined by Adam Peakes, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, also I have the privilege this morning of introducing two individuals who have recently assumed new management roles at Noble. First, Robert Eifler. Robert was recently appointed to the position of Vice President and General Manager of Marketing and Contracts. Prior to this appointment to his new role, Robert was responsible for our company's marketing and contract activities in Eastern Hemisphere. He's based in London, and that's an area where we have expanded our geographic footprint pretty well over the last couple years. I know that our global commercial efforts are in good hands under Robert's leadership and with the ongoing support of our talented marketing team. So you'll hear from Robert here in just a moment. Also I'm delighted to welcome Mr. Thomas Sloan to the company as our Vice President-Controller. And he's responsible for our global accounting functions, policies and controls. Thomas began his new role in July and brings many years of broad experience from prior service in the energy and offshore industries. Thomas replaces Dennis Lubojacky, who will retire from the company later this month after 10 years of service. And we appreciate all that Dennis has done for the company and we wish him all the best in his new phase of his life. So, Thomas, welcome and, Dennis, good luck. So with that out of the way, I'll begin this morning with some brief comments on the…

Adam C. Peakes - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Thank you, David, and good morning to all. As David touched on, our second quarter results were another example of excellent operational performance. Fleet downtime remained at a historically low level of just 2.2% and operating costs of $148 million once again settled below the low end of our guidance range when adjusted for a special charge that I will review in just a moment. Also, we generated $112 million in cash flow from operations, improving our year-to-date total to $254 million, which added to our cash position and pushed total liquidity to just over $3 billion. Finally, our capital needs continued to trend below expectations, leading us to adjust lower our full year spending plan. I'll begin this morning by providing some clarity with respect to our reported results in the quarter. As noted in our press release, we recognized net charges in the quarter totaling $16 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, resulting from the bankruptcy filing of Paragon Offshore. I'll provide more color on these charges in just a moment. I'll also comment on contract drilling revenues for the second quarter and provide an explanation on contract drilling costs, SG&A expenses and capital expenditures, as all three items deviated from our guided range. I'll close with updated guidance for full year 2017, including some thoughts on the third quarter, and comment on the revised 2017 capital expenditure plan, our balance sheet and liquidity position. For the second quarter, Noble reported a net loss attributable to the company of $93 million, or $0.38 per diluted share. Net charges of $16 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, are reflected in the results. The net charges are composed of approximately $1 million, or less than $0.01 per diluted share, in discontinued operations resulting from the confirmation on June 7 of…

Robert W. Eifler - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Thank you, Adam, and good morning to all. I'm pleased to be with you on the call today to provide a perspective on the global offshore market, and I look forward to meeting each of you in the months ahead. I'm honored to direct an effort that has yielded some impressive contracting success to-date. Our strong team of marketing professionals remain focused, as bidding activity levels are as high as at any time since the downturn began. Given our strategic emphasis on fleet quality, we are well-placed to capitalize on opportunities as positive trends emerge. In keeping with the company's past practice, I would like provide a brief overview of our fleet status and then take some time to review developments in offshore activity across the globe. Though the offshore market remains challenging, 19 of the 28 rigs in our worldwide fleet are currently contracted, while others remain well-positioned to secure pending opportunities. Eight of the 19 rigs are contracted into or beyond 2019 and contribute to our solid base of revenues for 2018 and 2019. Included in the 19 contracted rigs are the Noble Tom Prosser, which will begin a contract in Australia in September 2017, and the Noble Regina Allen, which we anticipate will be mobilized into Eastern Canada in the fourth quarter of this year. And David has already mention the Nobel Globetrotter II program in the Black Sea. Updates to the Fleet Status Report issued in mid-July, include the Noble Houston Colbert, which last week completed a the program offshore Qatar and is currently idle, the Noble Paul Romano, with the already mentioned contract extension into December, and the Noble Hans Deul, which is anticipated to continue work on its current contract until mid-November. While our 14-rig jackup fleet has maintained an industry-leading utilization rate of…

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

All right. Thanks, Robert. Good job. As a final thought this morning, our industry continues to make steady progress as it rises out of this lengthy recession. Over the past six months, we've seen what appears to be a bottom in the cycle for the jackup rig segment, with the number of contracted units steadily rising. Also, following a seemingly endless period of inactivity in the floating rig sector, the floating rig sector has begun to respond with approximately 87 contract awards or extensions since February, including 21 in the month of July according to data collected from IHS. In addition, field development decisions are on the rise and customers continue to report a decline in project costs as they successfully re-evaluate field development economics in today's cost environment. Our customers access to offshore regions is increasing, with new licensing rounds initiated or planned by countries who look to benefit from the large prolific offshore resource base. We take great interest in some of the new emerging offshore regions that continue to reveal their abundant hydrocarbon potential. These regions are expected to drive an increase in rig demand, with several rig needs in the near term. While the offshore industry requires more time to recover, I'm encouraged by the steady progress now underway. In short, we're very enthusiastic about the prospects for our company. Noble continues to execute at a consistently high level. We are currently securing new contracts in both our jackup and floating rig fleets and we remain well-positioned for other pending opportunities. Our contract cover, representing $3.2 billion of backlog at the end of the second quarter, should continue to be supported by further contracting opportunities through the remainder of 2017 and into 2018. And our efficient management of capital expenditures, which continue to decline, supports our positive free cash flow position while enhancing our already strong liquidity position. I'm convinced that Noble and the offshore industry are moving in the right direction. So thank you again for your participation in this morning's call and your continued interest in Noble. And, with that, we'll turn the call back over to Jeff and take some questions.

Jeffrey L. Chastain - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Okay, David. Thank you. Christa, let's go ahead and move into the Q&A segment of the call. If you would go ahead and assemble the queue, I'll remind everyone if you would limit your questioning to one plus a follow-up so we can take as many calls up to the top of the hour. Christa?

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Scott Gruber with Citigroup. Your line is now open.

Scott A. Gruber - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Good morning, Scott.

Scott A. Gruber - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Dave, investors have been somewhat surprised by the action of a few your peers with regard to spending some cash to reactivate floating rigs from various states of stacking despite other drillers, such as yourself, having some warm-stacked rigs still available. Can you just provide some color on this trend? Is it temporary? Do you see it continuing? Were there other opportunities for the Tom Madden and Sam Croft that have kept you from bidding at the low end on recent tenders that have concluded?

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

I'll give you a little bit of color. I think most of those projects that you're referring to are actually fairly long-dated on when they were bid. We would characterize what we've seen more as an anomaly than a trend. I think it doesn't really change our view that the rigs that are warm-stacked are better positioned. Some of those opportunities we availed ourselves of, some we didn't. How contracts view the market is going to be little bit different for each one of us, but it really didn't change our view of the market.

Scott A. Gruber - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. And what are the latest estimates, if you can provide them, on the reactivation costs for the two idle Bingos?

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

We have not given guidance on those and I don't think we will. Both those rigs are cold-stacked. And so the biggest cost of those rigs will be deferred maintenance, then recertification of the BOPs. And with both those rigs, since they're stacked in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, we removed the thrusters and so there's some time sensitivity from taking them offshore to reinstall the thrusters. So those rigs, if you look at the Croft and the Madden, there's a little bit of deferred maintenance, but not a lot on those rigs. So it's really full crews for a period of time to run the equipment and do a little bit of deferred maintenance. On the two cold-stacked semis, the Day and the Adkins, it's going to be a little bit more than that. Tens of millions, but not a huge number. So I would say some of the numbers that you've seen for reactivation of these rigs are probably in the ballpark of what we'd expect to spend on those rigs.

Scott A. Gruber - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. I appreciate the color.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Yep. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ian Macpherson with Simmons. Your line is now open. Ian Macpherson - Simmons & Company International: Thanks. I appreciate the disclosure of the Paul Romano dayrate. That's a refreshing breath of transparency. And it's also I guess another data point that you're working above cash breakeven on one of your older rigs, notwithstanding the pricing pressure in the market. Given how things are picking up, just from a contracting momentum perspective, where do you think we are overall with regard to pricing pressure? There has been a preponderance of undisclosed dayrates that we've assumed have been around cash breakeven. Do you sense that we are still above the trough as far as overall floater rates go? Or do you think that this quickening in contract momentum is going to help firm things up as we move into 2018?

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

It's still a very competitive market. So the way we would expect this to play out is there still to be some pressure on rates for some period of time until we see more contracting activity and more announcements. You'll see pricing power I would say in certain areas. It'll be regional. And the short-term nature of the business right now, I think if there are multiple operators looking for a rig, you'll see them want to steer towards the hottest rigs in those regions. And when they have to deviate from that, you'll see a little bit pricing power. So, again, I think it was described before, it's going to step up in stages. So I think it'll be regional in nature. The reality is one thing that we're all watching very closely, I'm sure all of our friends and our peers and we are watching it, probably you guys are watching it as well, is what really is the number of active rigs. In spite of the fact there have been some stacked rigs started up, the operators are still going to steer themselves largely towards rigs that are hot. There may be a reason they take a stacked rig, but they're going to steer that way. So this thing is going to step up. And the number of real live active rigs out there is not as big as you think. In our conversation with operators, we've had calls very recently where they look for opportunities and they're only going to consider a few contractors in these exercises because they're targeting certain rigs. So I think we're in the trough. I think we'll continue to see some pressure for a while, but I think we're headed out of the ditch instead of into the ditch. Ian Macpherson - Simmons & Company International: That's helpful. Thanks. I'll turn it over.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Thanks, Ian. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Haithum Nokta with Clarksons Platou. Your line is now open.

Haithum Nokta - Clarksons Platou Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Clarksons Platou. Your line is now open.

Hi. Good morning. I heard the mention of multi-year contract durations. And I was curious if that's something that you are seeing more so on jackup side right now, or is that also what you're seeing on the floater side in terms of your opportunity set?

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

I would say we're seeing some multi-year stuff in both jackups and floaters. The bulk of the work now is denominated wells, not years. There is some multi-year work out there. There's also some work that, when you add up all the wells, it becomes a year or more or even two years. I would say it's a mix. We're seeing some of both, but still pretty short term. Robert, do you..

Robert W. Eifler - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

No, I agree with that.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Okay. That's the way we're seeing it right now, Haithum.

Haithum Nokta - Clarksons Platou Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Clarksons Platou. Your line is now open.

Okay. All right. And I guess some of the peers have talked about rise of riskier contract terms in the industry. And I guess, it seems like I can interpret that as oil companies trying to shift some of the more catastrophic risks or black swan-type events onto the drillers. Are there red lines that Noble is not willing to cross and are there certain opportunities, things you're just not going to consider based on that?

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Absolutely. This is not new. Every time the pendulum swings one way or the other, you would like to think that the rate becomes the barometer of the market. But the reality is other commercial terms, other commercial realities come to play in shifting risk to one side of the other, who pays for mob, who pays for this, who pays for everything. How much risk you're willing to take always becomes part of that equation. But absolutely, there are red lines that we will not cross, and those really don't change from good markets to bad. We have a view of how much risk we want. We largely view these as cash risk and then our risk tolerance doesn't change dramatically. But our ability to get work under certain risk guidelines moves with the pendulum. But absolutely, there are red lines we won't cross.

Haithum Nokta - Clarksons Platou Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Clarksons Platou. Your line is now open.

Thank you. I'll turn it back.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Certainly. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Lewis with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open. Gregory Lewis - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Yes, thank you and good morning.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Good morning, Greg. Gregory Lewis - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Could we talk a little bit about the decision by Noble to move forward with AFGlobal and start looking at putting MPD on a couple rigs and what was the driver of that? And was that customer-driven? And really how should we be thinking about that?

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Thanks for the question. It was an opportunity set. Managed pressure drilling is a technology that's been under development in many veins for a while. We certainly have a good understanding and have the equipment to be able to manage it. It's an expensive prospect for the operator to rent that equipment or for the contractor to install it on one rig. So what we undertook to do was to work with the manufacturer to design basically a skid-mounted unit that we can deploy on any of our rigs if we had the opportunity. There are a number of prospects out there that may require that technology at a later date. And if you look at what it costs to rent that equipment from the providers and have it, we thought it was an opportunity for us to build the unit that that we can deploy on virtually any of our deepwater rigs, or frankly any rig. So it was an opportunity for us to do it in advance of other contracting opportunities where we thought it might be necessary for us. Gregory Lewis - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Okay. Great. And then just, Adam, as we think about the balance sheet, and obviously you guys have the undrawn revolver in place, are there any restrictions around that which would maybe prohibit you from going out and looking at buying some of your debt that's trading at a discount?

Adam C. Peakes - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

No, Greg. in terms of restrictions or our ability to access that, I think we have complete access to it. And that's why when we talk about our liquidity position, we include that. We think that's a tool that we have. We look at the balance sheet and look at opportunities including some of the debt we have and some of the debt that's trading at a discount and figure out if there are opportunities to retire some of that. So in terms of using that, no restrictions. The equation we look at is just balancing the near-term liquidity picture with our desires to chip away the leverage. So I think as you put yourself on our shoes, you should very much consider that revolver as a tool we have available and that in the right circumstance we would use. Gregory Lewis - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Okay. Perfect. Thank you very much, gentlemen. Have a good weekend.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Thanks again, Greg. You, too.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sean Meakim with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Hey. Good morning.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Good morning.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

So I was hoping maybe if you could just drill in a little more on the Middle East prospects, thinking about the Colbert and Mick O'Brien. Just maybe a sense of what the opportunity set could look like into 2018 and just how the changes underway in the KSA influence how you think about that market over time.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Well, I'll just say we have opportunities for both of those rigs this year, which is before 2018. So we're pursuing opportunities for those rigs in the region this year and next year. And we feel as we've had recently all of our jackups under contract. So we think that the technical capabilities the rigs lend themselves very well those opportunities and we feel very good about our positioning there. I'll let Robert comment on some specific targets, if he's got any comments.

Robert W. Eifler - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Well, first, the rigs have performed really, really well. And the Noble Houston Colbert come off of JX, the customer has been really pleased with it, and that helps in the region, of course. We're bidding that rig in certain occasions outside the region. But we do anticipate that there's a fair amount of incremental demand, some of it in 2017 and then a bigger portion of it in 2018. So we anticipate that we'll find some good work for those rigs. I would say, on the KSA question, I don't think we see our dynamic or our relationship with Aramco changing on account of the recent announcements from our competitor. We have a great relationship with the company and we hold a somewhat unique position in the wells we drill in Kingdom there, and we expect that to continue.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Okay. Got it. Yeah, that makes sense. And then just thinking about the Bob Douglas and potential for some follow-on work there, just how do you think about – given Noble's position, you've got this nice backlog into 2019, so relative to some of your peers, you got good line of sight on a portion of the fleet, how does that play into how you strategically prioritize well-to-well contracts versus taking perhaps lower dayrate term in a region like that?

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Well, look, we have rigs available and we're in the business of drilling wells, not stacking rigs. So we can price anything. Certainly, we want to balance what our term opportunities are versus what we think how the market may respond during the life of that term. But the beauty of term work is you don't have a payroll every day. And even in the climbing market work, in short term there could be periods where you may have idle time between wells. So you don't want to tie them all up at the current rates for long term. But certainly the opportunities to put some rigs to work with some longevity and give you chance to reach back, the Croft and the Maiden are both very high performing rigs with good track records. And we think that they have good utility going forward. So if there's an opportunity where we believe we could price it, and, again, we don't want to go too long and we don't want to do them all, but to have a mix, that's what we'd like to see.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

That's fair enough. Okay. Thanks a lot.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Campbell with Tuohy Brothers. Your line is now open.

Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Your line is now open.

Good morning.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Good morning.

Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Your line is now open.

My first question is, do you feel that the worst of the contract revisions are over with now as you look toward 2018?

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Contract revisions, you mean in terms of the terms and conditions that we're asked to take? Or...

Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Your line is now open.

Or day rate revisions, downward revision of day rates, any of this...

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

I would say that, yeah, I think that I would hope that we're at the trough or at the bottom. Whether or not the pace of play continues, which, at this point, it looks like it's not just continuing, it's improving, we would expect this to be close to the trough. Now, one or two contracts doesn't make a trend, so that doesn't prohibit somebody from going low on a job they think that makes sense or somebody who's able to price one contract above where everybody else is. That doesn't necessarily mean that all rigs are picking stuff up. When you see repeated behaviors that will be more clear. But, again, I think we're headed out of the tunnel instead into the tunnel. So there may be still some pricing pressure and you may still see some rates come down, but marginally speaking, I'm not uncomfortable with where we are pricing things going forward.

Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Your line is now open.

Okay. And the other one is, I thought I was understating when the press release talked about the Globetrotter II's advantages and going in and out of the Bosphorus. So I just wondered if you could provide a little color on that.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Sure. The Globetrotter II is one of two rigs of that class and four rigs that we have that have the Huisman Multi Purpose Tower. The Globetrotters are a little bit unique in that they've got, on the drilling side, they've got a 2.4 million-pound hook load. On the backside, on the construction side, they've got about a 2 million-pound hook load. But we can take the top part of the Tower down with the rig crane and sail under the bridge, whereas if you've got a conventional derrick, even if you have a planned breakaway part, you've got to rig it down and basically reassemble it and put it back up. So I think our last transit under the Bridge was seven days, eight days, maybe a little longer, maybe 10 days, something like that. But I know from past experience and what some of our competitors have done, looking at three months to get a rig under the Bridge and put back together, we can do it in under two weeks. So this will be our third well in the Black Sea and also our third transit into the Black Sea. So I mean, we pull up, we take it off, sail under the Bridge, put it back on and it go back to work in a matter of days, where somebody else, one of our peers, without this kind of technology is looking at months. So it doesn't preclude us from moving in or out. And if somebody's got a short-term program in, we can get in and out that very easily and very quickly. The two Globetrotters are really the only ones that have that capability.

Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Your line is now open.

Okay. Great. Thanks for the color.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kurt Hallead with RBC. Your line is now open.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC. Your line is now open.

Good morning.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Good morning, Kurt.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC. Your line is now open.

It's been a long time coming, but finally good to see some consistent positive news on the demand front, that's for sure.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Yep. And we agree.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC. Your line is now open.

So, Dave, I and to shift from going into a trough to coming out of the trough. I want to gauge from where you sit the economics of some of these offshore projects. There's been a lot of discussion around $50 breakeven, $40 breakeven. And I think semantics – we need to delve into semantics a little bit, because $50 breakeven doesn't mean it's economically incentivized for an oil company to go after an offshore project. So can you just talk through some of that dynamic and is there a significant amount of pent-up demand, is it a limited amount of pent-up demand? And I just want to start gauging the momentum that you think we have coming out of this trough.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Well, so I would say at this point in terms of pent-up demand, I wouldn't say there's a lot because of the appetite of our customers, they've been in a cash flow hold for the last couple of years. We would, based on the information we see, be coming out of that this year and next year and give them an opportunity. The reality I think is that while shale plays and onshore plays are very short-cycle returns, the ability of these or the majors and some of the other companies that have a large portfolio offshore, their ability to replace reserves and replenish their capital base is going to require offshore exploration. And the longer this goes, the weirder it's going to be when it turns around. I mean, we've seen virtually no activity by these guys other than what they have to do to maintain to some kind of base-level production, we've see no real activity in the last three years. So if you look at any kind of growth scenario overlaid with natural decline curves around the world with the numbers that you see, you can't beat that with shale. So, offshore is just is another piece of the pie. We think it's a large piece of the pie. Our customers tell us the same thing. And so the longer this period of inactivity by our customers goes, it's going to be when it turns around. We would much prefer to see more of a steady state. But the reality is, it's a volatile commodity and it's a volatile business. But we will see it return. You talk about $40 or $50 barrel oil to be buyable. I think that's a good marginal number. We've certainly heard numbers much lower than that on certain field development scenarios. When you see markets that have a good bit of infrastructure, I would say that that marginal field development in those areas is possible at numbers much lower than that. It's interesting, you look at a satellite photo of U.S. Gulf of Mexico, and there's basically a line at the Border between the U.S. and Mexico. The amount of exploration and development opportunities in Mexico is huge, and we haven't even started it yet. So we think offshore, shallow water and deepwater, is a big part of the future. We continue to believe that market obsolescence or the cash constraints that many contractors are operating under is going to continue to drive the fleet size down. We think that operating efficiency and technologies are going to continue to be what drives our customers' decisions. And we think that our fleet of new and highly capable rigs puts us in a very good spot going forward.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC. Your line is now open.

Thanks. Thanks for that detail. Now, another question for you is you've been through, lived through and have the scars to prove you've lived through, many cycles in this business. And I know that we've gone through a period of significant rig attrition over the last couple of years. So how do you think, as optimism improves, as demand dynamics start to improve, have we seen the bulk of rig attrition at this point and these rigs that people thought would never come back will again likely find yet another life?

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

No, I don't think that we've seen much of the rig attrition at all, frankly. There's a lot of good reasons why contractors don't want to announce and officially retire assets. But the reality is that their ability to spend money to maintain those assets in some kind of condition that the operator is going to want to use those rigs has been limited. And so even though they may not have announced retirements, steel, saltwater and air don't mix. And so the longer these rigs sit idle and the condition they were in when they were laid up is a material piece of how that deterioration accelerates. But the way this will work out, we're in a short-term rig environment market. Unless it's a specific rig that has a specific niche capability, most of these rigs are going to be started up or have an opportunity against very short-term contracts, one or two wells, unless the market gets so heated up that they may have some longer-term. And in that case, our rigs will be working, we'll be making a ton of money and I'll be delighted to see it. But the reality is they're going to have opportunities against short-term startups and the cash to put those rigs back in service to make them competitive is going to be prohibitive. So, no, I don't think that we've seen the level of attrition that we're going to see. And we may not see it, Kurt. It's market obsolescence or material obsolescence just through deterioration is going to drive it. You may not see a number of announcements, but the reality is you not seeing those rigs come back into the market. The fleet size is not nearly what we think it is.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC. Your line is now open.

Okay. And then maybe just to finish up, by the number of companies that may go into bankruptcy, are in bankruptcy and are about to emerge from bankruptcy, and with the improving outlook for the offshore drilling market, what do you think the prospects of some of these companies actually being consolidated are? And do you think that they're going to be emboldened by an improving demand outlook?

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Well, I would say it remains to be seen. I would say, based on what we think we hear from bankers and others who are involved in these things, if you go through one of these processes where you exchange equity for debt or debt for equity, however you want to look at it, probably those new equity holders are not as interested in the long-term viability of operating a drilling company is as the guys that owned the equity were. So you would expect there is probably another transaction to come. That's the way I would expect it to play out, but that still remains to be seen. So, we'll see. Noble certainly has a history of being involved in acquisitions and M&A. We certainly want to be part of that process, if and when we think it's time. We think it's early at this point. There's the market that we're coming out of a hole, but there's still some recovery to be had and there's always a chance that there could be some other inflections in oil. So we want to see the market mature a little bit before we think it's time. We think it's early. But we certainly expect to see out those opportunities and we want to be ready when they're there.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC. Your line is now open.

Okay. Appreciate the color, Dave. Thanks.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Thank you. Have a good weekend.

Jeffrey L. Chastain - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Christa, let's go ahead and take our final question, please.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Colin Davies with Bernstein. Your line is now open. Colin Davies - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Hello. Good morning.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Good morning. Colin Davies - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Just noticed there in terms of the slight uptick in recent contracts, it's been a lot of quite long-distance mobilizations for relatively short-term contracts, where people are justifying by strategically positioning the rigs in the more attractive, or potentially more attractive, markets. Maybe give us a little bit more color on that. You've done a couple of big mobs yourselves. Is that a trend we're going to see where certain markets are going to become quite strategic, or the positioning of the rigs are going to become quite strategic, as the market eventually recovers?

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

I think we all try to get our rigs as close as we can to their highest and best use. And so to the extent there's an opportunity that you can position yourself either for a specific opportunity or for a coming opportunity, yeah, I think we have to take advantage of those. I mean, you look at the Globetrotter opportunity, we are being paid a healthy mob fee to move the rig up there and at a rate that, while we're not disclosing it, we're certainly proud of. So that's an opportunity for a rig that's got a specific capability. We have a great relationship with that customer and we think that that positions the rig very well. The fact that Shell is also paying us just makes it that much better. But in other opportunities, we have moved some rigs around, but we've been paid for those moves. And I don't necessarily see this as a trend. Ships are mobile, they're very mobile. That's one of the beauties of having a self-propelled vessel that can move itself efficiently. Even semi-submersibles, some are self-propelled. But I think largely it's easier to move them on the heavy lift ship just because of the drag created by two hulls. But I think all contractors to the extend that they have a rig they think has a niche opportunity will position themselves. I don't view that as necessarily a trend. It's a reality of how contractors view different opportunities in different places. Colin Davies - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: That's great. And then just one follow-up, if I may. As we come out through the summer, we're going to be starting to head into the planning season for 2018, in terms of your customers. Is there anything you're hearing or seeing from the different components of the industry, be it NOCs, majors, independents, that would suggest a differing stance to the offshore as we think about planning for 2018?

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

I would say that the current oil price view probably is a little more stable than what we've seen. Certainly last year it felt like it was stable. The previous two years was highly volatile going through the budget cycle and made our customers' planning activities extremely treacherous. But I would say that the current oil price view, to me it doesn't have to be $60 or $70 if they have a view that's going to be stable. At least if it's stable, they have an expectation they can plan accordingly. If it's going to be $50, and they view it at $50 and it's going to be $50, that's good for us. I would say that the view in the market is, our customers in the offshore arena, particularly in the deepwater, have been on the sidelines for three years. I think they're building up a portfolio of drilling requirements. We're starting to see those. We are getting requests for what I would characterize as price decks for next year for planning purposes, which is good. And more of a steady-state environment is all good for us. So I would just say that when I wouldn't characterize this is overly optimistic or enthusiastic, the level of comfort and just the body language and behavior of customers right now all bodes well for next year. Colin Davies - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Right. That's extremely helpful. Thanks very much.

David W. Williams - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Thank you.

Jeffrey L. Chastain - Noble Corp. Plc

Management

Okay. Thanks, everyone, for your participation on today's call. Make a note, please, that we'll expect to report our third quarter 2017 results on November 2 with a call to follow the morning of November 3 and we'll confirm those dates as we get closer. Christa, we appreciate your time in coordinating today's call. Good day and have a great weekend, everyone.

Operator

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.