Earnings Labs

Noodles & Company (NDLS)

Q2 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 10, 2017

$11.84

+3.05%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-3.85%

1 Week

-5.13%

1 Month

+20.51%

vs S&P

+17.93%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to today's Noodles & Company Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. All participants are now in a listen-only mode. After the presenters' remarks, there will be question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now introduce Noodles & Company's Interim Chief Financial Officer, Sue Daggett. Susan Daggett - Noodles & Co.: Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our second quarter 2017 earnings call. Here with me this afternoon are Paul Murphy, our Executive Chairman; and Dave Boennighausen, our Chief Executive Officer. Let me start by going over a few regulatory matters. I'd like to note that during our opening remarks and in response to your questions, we may make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. Any such items, including our guidance about our anticipated results in 2017 and details relating to our future performance, should be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are only projections, and actual events or results could differ materially from those projections due to a number of risks and uncertainties. The Safe Harbor statement in this afternoon's news release and the cautionary statement in the company's most recent Form 10-K and subsequent filings with the SEC are considered a part of this conference call, including the portions of each that set forth the risks and uncertainties related to the company's forward-looking statements. I refer you to a document that the company files from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for its 2016 fiscal year and subsequent filings we have made. These documents contain and identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those…

Operator

Operator

Certainly. Our first question comes from the line of Jake Bartlett from SunTrust. Your question, please.

Jake Rowland Bartlett - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Hey. Thanks for taking the questions. First, just some book-keeping and also just any indication. So first is traffic. You didn't – you explicitly provide that if you could for the second quarter at company stores, that'd be helpful. David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Sure. So, Jake, in terms of sales, again, we're negative 3.9% on the company side with about 1.5% of price. Menu mix was pretty negligible. So, as you look at traffic, it was in that negative 5.5% range.

Jake Rowland Bartlett - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then in the past you've shared kind of quarter-to-date trends in July. Could you share those to see how you're doing so far in the quarter? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: No, as we – as Sue talked about, there is a lot of volatility. And what we're seeing in particular, there's volatility as we lap over discounting this year. It's something we've talked about in some prior calls about the heavy amount of discounting that we've been getting away from. So we've seen actually a significant amount that we've been lapping over the last several weeks as we got into Q3. So I don't think it's prudent at this moment to really be talking about quarter-to-date given that volatility.

Jake Rowland Bartlett - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then in terms of your comp drivers, your sales drivers like the new guest bussing stations and menu simplification, some of the other marketing initiatives I think you've done a rollout soon. But can you just remind us where you are with all of those? How many stores have the new bussing stations? Maybe specifically, what the franchise stores have that the companies don't that might be accounting for that differential? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Sure. There's a few things in there, Jake. So I'd ask Sue to carry on where I was misplaced. First, talking about the franchise side, aside from implementing some of our initiatives, I think potentially the bigger place that they're ahead of our curve is in the turnover and people engagement side. If you look back a year ago, we've talked in the past that at the company level, we are approaching kind of 200% team member level turnover on an annualized basis, manager turnover was 50%. Those numbers significantly improved now at industry average. The franchise community never had that. So, from a pure cadence of operational execution ensuring the standards are met, they've been able to kind of pick up the pace faster than we have on that. The good news is where we're at from a company side. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we're now able to really calibrate the processes and getting tightened up to ensure consistency. It's not necessarily as much the initiatives surrounding bussing stations and quicker pickup that they've been implementing as much. It's just the standards and pure execution. To answer a few more of your questions in terms of where we're at with the initiatives such as bussing stations, we had to wait until we had the capital raised…

Jake Rowland Bartlett - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Palmer from RBC. Your question, please.

David Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Hey, Dave. Just a follow-up question on your – on delivery, takeout and pushing that. I'm a fan of your concept when it comes to that, and it seems that you're trying to push on that lever. Could you talk about that mix and how cannibalistic that is, whether it's delivery on takeout or takeout the in-store business? And then also when it comes to value, when it comes to a delivery order or a takeout, oftentimes the bar gets higher for value because you're getting into family orders, and that check size can swell and become – it's a little bit of a sticker shock. Can you talk about trying to make that value work for a family in particular, as they – as you try to grow that delivery and takeout business? Thanks. David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Sure. Well, thanks, David, for the question. First, I want to step back and say why we believe this is such a great opportunity for us. Again, we're approaching 50% of our sales that are coming off-premise. And our concept, by virtue of our strength with families in that dinner occasion, the variety we have, the fact especially when you look at items like the Asian category, we generally lend ourselves well to the off-premise occasion. That said, it hadn't been much of a focus in the organization past several years, or maybe not as much of a focus as it should have been. When we look at cannibalization versus incremental business, where we see particular incremental business is, right now, when you look at that occasion where speed is of the essence. When we can get our guest to order online, that's something that allows them to skip the line and really becomes a throughput equalizer for…

David Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andy Barish from Jefferies. Your question, please.

Andrew Marc Barish - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Hey, guys. On the items that came off the menu with the simplification, any preference or impact on comps that was greater or less than you expected, or was that generally kind of in line as those were lower mixing items for you? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Yes, Andy, there were certainly lower mixing items, particularly in sandwiches. Very little resistance, if any, from that, and we saw an immediate improvement in our throughput in our operational metrics as we remove those. The one that we talked about last quarter was the one that surprised us a little bit, which was as we removed the Whole Grain Tuscan Fresca, definitely we saw some feedback from our guests about wanting that Fresca sauce and our Fresca profile, which is why we did bring back the Pasta Fresca nationally just a couple months later. It was actually already in the works, but we just accelerated its movement into the restaurants. I wouldn't necessarily quantify much of an impact on same-store sales. And if so, it would have been in Q1, not Q2. But overall, I think the streamlining of the menu has helped certainly more than hurt in terms of just improving our ability to execute operationally.

Andrew Marc Barish - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

And then on the food cost side, are you starting to see inflation in the back half, and what are you specifically contracted or knowing about right now to look out to 2018 and thinking that that's going to be inflationary at this point? Susan Daggett - Noodles & Co.: Hi, Andy. This is Sue. We are contracted out on all of our commodity-based ingredients through the balance of the year. But we are watching for 2018, the preliminary forecasts are indicating that it's going to be a modestly inflationary year next year. One of the things that we're watching closely, things like durum wheat which had tough – no rain, drought, hot weather up in the Dakotas and Northern Montana. So we're watching those very closely, but we feel confident for the balance of 2017 and now looking into 2018.

Andrew Marc Barish - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Glass from Morgan Stanley. Your question, please. John Glass - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thank you. David, you just – stepping back and looking at the sales trajectory of the business, now it stepped down a bit in the first half of this year, and there's a lot of the factors at work, and I'm sure distraction and focus on other things is one of them. But how do you think about what your sales driving initiatives are? What is rank – if you could rank order, kind of what you think will help sales the most in the next two quarters? How would you handicap or rank those initiatives? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Sure. I think from the short-term, I would say that the REWARDS program is one that we continue to believe will allow us to not just increase frequency but target our guests. In the past, when we talked about the heavy promotion that we've been trying to get away from, one challenge that I had with the heavy promotion was that we didn't quite have the tools at our disposal to have those messages be really targeted based on guest behavior and based on their profile. So I do think from a short-term perspective, the REWARDS program absolutely can be a driver as we look into the back half of the year. As a reminder, the REWARDS program started in mid-July, John. Medium term, though, and what we think is probably the biggest thing we need to get done is operational execution and continuing to calibrate with our teams to just ensure that that guest experience is as strong of an execution of our brand as it can be. We've made…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nicole Miller from Piper Jaffray. Your question, please. Nicole M. Miller Regan - Piper Jaffray & Co.: Thank you. Good afternoon. Just two quick ones for me. How does delivery play a role in terms of mix? Like, I would think that would contribute to mix in a positive fashion in terms of a potentially higher check, yet mix is kind of flattish. So, can you just help me reconcile that train of thought? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Sure. On that one, Nicole, I think it's just a lot being a small number right now. So it's only 10% of our restaurants during Q2. It's only – was 6% of sales. So you're really talking about an average check lift that was really only impacting about six-tenths of our overall revenue. But you are correct. Average check is higher for the delivery occasion. Now, we currently do not add or increase our prices for delivery, which several concepts do. So that's one element that we maybe have not seen as much average check lift with some other staff. But I think you will see average check and more benefit as we expand this to a third of our restaurants. Nicole M. Miller Regan - Piper Jaffray & Co.: Excellent. Understood. Thank you. And then just the last one, I think it's interesting that you use the term recalibrate many of the processes and procedures. So, thinking about growth – higher growth and then lesser degree of growth and a lot of marketing spend and now lesser degree of marketing spend, I think a lot of what you're talking about today is very encouraging. So what is a fair timeline so that we can calibrate the stock? If…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets. Your question, please.

Andrew Strelzik - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Hey, good afternoon, guys. A couple of questions. First one, you talked about the strength with families. I'm wondering if you try to parse out the day parts, are you seeing that the evenings maybe are a little stronger? Are you seeing that that's manifesting itself in the current trends or is it a little more consistent across the board? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: We do see a little bit more strength at dinner than we see at lunch, Andrew. And I think that part of that is just competitively a lot of fast casual that's been building up over the years that's had a little bit more of a lunch day part. And part of it's in the operational execution. In terms of the lunch, there ultimately is probably a little bit less room for air. And we probably lost some mind share and some ability to be in the decision set by not executing quite as crisply as we think we should. The other thing I would add to that is that those that have been in the restaurant space for a long time know that how strong your execution is at dinner is often a very clear reflection of how well you executed at lunch because it sets you up for the full day being very successful. So that's another reason why we continue to focus on lunch from an execution perspective, but at the same time, feel that the off-premise occasion delivery, how we're approaching faster pickup, that's really going to resonate with families.

Andrew Strelzik - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. And clearly, the excitement – you can feel the excitement around the reward side. In the restaurants where you tested that, the 50 stores initially, how did you really see that manifest itself? What were the learnings from that that has you so excited? And I think you even – seems like you're rolling it out maybe a little bit faster than you had initially planned. Maybe that's splitting hairs. But I guess I'm wondering what pieces you've seen that maybe you can give some color to make us as excited as you are. David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Absolutely. It's hard to get as excited as I am because I'm pretty excited. But really, the REWARDS program is something our guests have been asking for for a long time. We started testing it in October in several of our restaurants. I don't want to necessarily pin a same-store sales lift to it, but we definitely did see that as restaurants had an increased level of check-ins and an increased level of engagement from the REWARDS program, we did see their sales results improve. And then that's really frequency from our existing guests, maybe users that have become either lapsed or they've become more frequent than they were in the past. I think what's particularly exciting for me is that, really, we did put such a large focus on this during the testing phase that of all the launches that I've been a part of in my 13 years here, I think this was potentially the most flawless in terms of the level of execution at our restaurants, the level of execution at our own current team. But we are seeing nice lifts to same-store sales and average check from the restaurants that have tested it. While we're still only a few weeks in to this current – to the program being nationwide, I'm very excited with what we're going to see here. Susan Daggett - Noodles & Co.: And that's -

Andrew Strelzik - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

And then, my last question, wondering about the supply side dynamics. Have you seen the competitive activity from a unit growth perspective and the number of competitors out there? Has that continued to accelerate? Have you see any shakeout at all that maybe that's starting to ease a bit? Wondering – in your most important markets, how you're seeing that play out? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Yes. I think, ultimately, as you can imagine, we're focused on what we can control, which is the guest experience and ensuring that we're executing the brand as well as we possibly can. I do believe that the unit growth is starting to moderate. We're seeing that in certain markets like Colorado where we're starting to see improved results versus prior quarters. So I do think it's moderating. At the same time, really, our focus is on what we can control. And the fact that we are so differentiated, it still gives me a lot of confidence that even as you have new entrants into the space, we should be one of those that win.

Andrew Strelzik - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of – it's a follow-up from the line of Jake Bartlett from SunTrust. Your question, please.

Jake Rowland Bartlett - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks. Thanks for taking the follow-up. Dave, on the delivery in the 10% of the stores that have it and the 6% mix I believe that you mentioned, did that build over time? I'm thinking about the prospect of getting to a third of the stores by the end of the year. I mean, it seems like the math would imply that that could be up to a 2% boost to comps in 2018. Is there something wrong with that thinking, like the stores that you initially did it with are just particularly well suited for delivery? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Yes. I mean, that would be the only – not necessarily a flaw, but the only caveat to that thinking is that certainly our initial focus was on locations that tended to be their central business district. Collegiate, they tended to be those types of ones that are a little bit more applicable for the delivery experience. But we absolutely do think there's a big up – there is a nice upside here over the long-term. So it hasn't grown over time at those restaurants. Yes, with the typical volatility that you would see from especially the college restaurants where it goes up during school and then fades off a little bit during summer.

Jake Rowland Bartlett - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

But it's kind of leveled off around that mix? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Yes. I mean, again, it's 45 restaurants and the sample size gets a little small. Some restaurants, it just continues to grow, grow and grow. We see that especially in California. Other markets that are more collegiate in nature, again, tend to have leveled off.

Jake Rowland Bartlett - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then lastly, you've mentioned in the past that you have been exploring potentially refranchising some stores. Any more thoughts on that, any changes to your thinking? And maybe – I think you framed potentially 10% of the stores. Is that still what you're looking at? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Yes. Certainly, as we've talked about in the past, we've expected that this would be somewhat of a lengthy process going through 2017 and through 2018 as well. Still believe that franchising and refranchising has a good opportunity for us. At the same time, as Paul has come on board and as we've been spending time calibrating, this is something we'll look at. But again, no changes to our thinking right now that we still expect to do refranchising, but it'll be more of a late-2017, 2018 opportunity.

Jake Rowland Bartlett - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And this does conclude the question-and-answer session as well as today's program. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation. You may now disconnect. Good day.