Earnings Labs

Noodles & Company (NDLS)

Q1 2017 Earnings Call· Tue, May 9, 2017

$11.84

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon and welcome to today's Noodles & Company First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. All participants are now on a listen-only mode. After the presenters' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce Noodles & Company's Vice President of Finance, Sue Daggett. Susan Daggett - Noodles & Co.: Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Just wanted to apologize quickly for the late start, (00:27) was having some technical difficulties, but I think we're on track now. Welcome to our first quarter 2017 earnings call. Here with me this afternoon is Dave Boennighausen, our CFO and Interim Chief Executive Officer. Let me start by going over a few regulatory matters. I'd like to note that during our opening remarks and in response to your questions, we may make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. Any such items, including our guidance about our anticipated results in 2017 and details relating to our future performance, should be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are only projections and actual events or results could differ materially from those projections due to a number of risks and uncertainties. The Safe Harbor statement in this afternoon's news release and the cautionary statement in the company's most recent Form 10-K and subsequent filings with the SEC are considered a part of this conference call, including the portions of each that set forth the risks and uncertainties related to the company's forward-looking statements. I refer you to the documents the company files from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for its 2016 fiscal year and subsequent…

Operator

Operator

Yes, sir. And our first question comes from David Tarantino with Baird. Your line is now open. David E. Tarantino - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: Hi. Thank you. Good afternoon. Dave, to ask the first question on the recent trends you've been seeing, it seems like March and April combined have been fairly weak and I was just wondering if you could maybe elaborate on what your thoughts are and why you're seeing that weakness. I guess we're not seeing that more broadly? And then I have a follow-up related to the outlook? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Sure. So, on the first question, so specific to us, I think, some of the things that were unique in April. The way the timing worked out in terms of menu rollouts, we ultimately did not have price in our system in the back half of March as well as throughout the month of April. So, that was one factor that was a little bit more specific to us. The second thing is we're still overlapping quite a bit of discount and promotional activity, which we should get through the end of that, as you get through Q2 we should start having the completion of the lap of kind of the heavy promotion that we'd done the prior year. Taking away those two factors, ultimately traffic was actually pretty consistent between the first part of Q1 and then at the end of March and April. David E. Tarantino - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: Got it. That's helpful. And then, I guess on the outlook, Dave, I know, once you get past some of these issues you just mentioned, I guess there is line of sight to getting better related to that. But what's needed I guess…

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from John Glass of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. John Glass - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hi. Thank you. Dave, just first on the first quarter you just reported, I think you had said in the fourth quarter call, $4 million in EBITDA and you came in a little under $3 million, around $3 million and it looked like comps were kind of where they were running when you gave the guidance and I think your margins were kind of on target. Just remind us or help us what was the difference then? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: I'm sorry. I misunderstood the question. John Glass - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: You guided to, I think, $4 million of EBITDA in the first quarter, and you reported $3 million, right? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Yeah. I believe it was $3.8 million. So, it's right on the – really close towards it. Ultimately, we did see some more softness in March than we had anticipated. So, that was the major variable. John Glass - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Got it. Okay. And then, can you just bridge the gap between your previous guidance and your current guidance. And I understand comps are weaker, maybe that influences margins. But you did get your store closures done earlier, so maybe that's a positive. What are the puts and takes just to get you to the new EBITDA guidance and margin guidance versus the prior? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Yeah. Absolutely. The major benefit would be the completion of the balance of the closures, which was not incorporated in our original guidance. What was changed was, as we looked at the softness that we had in…

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Jake Bartlett with SunTrust. Your line is now open.

Jake Rowland Bartlett - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open.

Great. Thanks for taking the question. Building on the last question about margins, understand the impact of closing these underperforming units, but how much had the new unit growth been hurting, been pressuring margins, I imagine just that alone should enable you to expand your margins, maybe we can frame both of those two impacts and I understand maybe they overlap a little bit, given that these were – the ones you're closing are some of the newer units, but if you can go into that, that would be helpful. David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Yeah. Yeah. It's a great question, Jake, it's not something we've quantified very recently because as you said there is significant amount of overlap there. The traditional trajectory that we've seen in our restaurants has been that the first two years or so, the restaurants tend to run at 85% to 90% of company average and tend to have restaurant level margins in the low double digits and then you move from there. And what that has typically done is negatively hurt our comparable restaurant sales by roughly – averaging of volumes by roughly 50 basis points and our margin is a little bit less than that. So in the neighborhood of 50 basis points, maybe a touch lower. So there will be some benefit from that, but it's probably somewhat modest compared with the benefit of the closures as well as the labor efficiency opportunities that we see.

Jake Rowland Bartlett - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open.

Okay. And then just to clarify, it looks like – were there three franchise store closures in the quarter? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: There were three franchise locations that closed. They were in the Long Island area.

Jake Rowland Bartlett - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open.

Is that something that we should expect to continue kind of in keeping with what the company is going through right now? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: I don't believe so. I think that overall we have a very strong franchise base as you've seen their momentum relative to ours. They have maintained and been pretty well above the industry average. So, I think you might see one or two, but I don't think you will see any wholesale changes.

Jake Rowland Bartlett - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open.

Okay. And then as you think about the prospect of refranchising some units, can you give us a sense, is there any way you can kind of give us a scale as to how extensive that would be, whether it's 20% of the system or more or less, just to kind of give us an idea of what this could look like? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: I don't want to assign necessarily a percentage to it because we're still having discussions on that and I will tell you that, we as a company see tremendous upside now as we focus more on executing on our initiatives and so, we want to make sure that we're able to realize a lot of those from the company-owned restaurants. That said, we certainly still see markets where we believe there is a lot of tremendous potential and that they're going to do incredibly well, potentially another franchise ownership, expect that that process will be lengthy. And you'll probably not see much refranchising activity for us until Q3 and into Q4 and then throughout 2018. Hard to peg a specific number on it, but if right now, you could think of maybe a ballpark of 10% of restaurants for the near- to medium-term shifting from company to franchise ownership.

Jake Rowland Bartlett - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open.

Okay. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Joshua Long with Piper Jaffray. Your line is now open. Joshua C. Long - Piper Jaffray & Co.: Great. Thanks for taking my question. You touched on it a little bit, Dave, but I wanted to get a better sense of the timing around some of those labor initiatives. It seems like some of those – maybe hourly savings, that's three to five hours that you might be able to pull out could come in around 3Q, 4Q. But just curious about some of the other moving pieces that either – the kind of impact, just the timing and the ability to roll some of those things out over the course of the year. David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Sure. So, as a management team, we believe it's important that when you look at labor, you're able to quantify specifically to the teams, here is where those labor savings are coming from. So, as an example, two items that we've changed as we went into this rollout this past week was introducing a chopper to help us, where we had been cutting everything by hand, we're still bringing produce in the same way we always had, but now, we are utilizing a chopper, which allows a much more consistent ultimate ingredient, but also makes it considerably more efficient for our teams when they're doing their prep procedures, also again to add processes around how we approach the rolling of silverware. Those little things ultimately add up. And we feel very good that we've got two hours of savings a day coming into play here during the back half of Q2. And that as we get into Q3 and Q4, we believe we can get an additional hour to three hours depending on…

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Andrew Strelzik with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Ryan Royce - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Great. Thanks for taking the question. This is actually Ryan Royce on for Andrew. Just on the restaurant margin guidance, you took it down for the year. It looked like 1Q was within your expectations and now you have the additional closures that are now incorporated in the guide. I guess, what was the thought process behind lowering the guidance. Is it really just a softer top line outlook and should we think about 1Q as the bottom for restaurant margins? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Certainly, we would hope and expect that Q1 will be the bottom between the benefit of closures as well as the initiatives that we're working on, combine that with the fact that just seasonally Q1 is always our lowest volume and lowest margin quarter. So absolutely, we would expect that this would be the trough when it comes to margins. And then for the change that we had in guidance, ultimately, yes, it is because of the drop that we have seen during April and just trying to make sure that we are conservative and appropriate with our sales during the balance of the year.

Ryan Royce - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Great, thanks. And then you talked about the rolling out the loyalty a little broader. I guess, can you just share some color on what you're seeing from the guests in terms of how they're responding to the loyalty program in the markets it's implemented so far? David James Boennighausen - Noodles & Co.: Sure. So, Ryan, we've been in test since about October of last year, currently in 50 restaurants. How we approach it was, first we wanted to make sure that the technology worked, that the way the programs function was how we expected, and then we wanted to make sure that we had done the right tests in terms of the different campaigns to be using. It's a surprise and delight type program where you can specifically target users based on their purchase history as well as what their usage has been over any period of time. So we want to see that and what we're very pleased with is very strong correlations between the restaurants that have it versus those that don't in terms of their sales performance. And within the restaurants that have the rewards program, the more guest sign-ins they're getting, the better their same store sales and overall performances as well. I would say that these are two areas we've talked about significantly over time in terms of the opportunity in off-premise as well as the opportunity from a rewards program. Those are the ones I think we've been discussing for the last few quarters. We really wanted to get the capital raises behind us in order to execute on those items. There is an investment that's incorporated into our guidance, that we had held off on for the loyalty program. So those are things that we're now able to execute on that we weren't necessarily able to execute on before, and that's where the consumer is going. The consumer is certainly going towards convenience, towards speed, toward consistency, and a lot of our efforts are to make sure that we're capitalizing on our opportunities there.

Ryan Royce - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

At this time, I'm showing no further questions. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.