Rob McEwen
Analyst · Alliance Global Partners. Your line is open
Thank you, Meri. I'd like to start off by saying this year has been a very disappointing year. We got hit really hard in the first half by some very unusual event that led to a very disappointing performance. In fact, it was so hard that what happened in the first half, we raised $70 million of revenue from our projections for this year. And that set off a series of events. We borrowed some money back in August of 2018. I'll run through a couple of excuses, which I'm sorry, but I'll share with you. We took out the loan, thinking we had the -- everything in hand, that Gold Bar would come on stream, on time as promised, Black Fox will be producing, neither of those happened. And then Argentina came along and imposed an export tax. And then there was a smelter that our partner was using and it went bankrupt and we are unsecured. There was a $20 million hit to the joint venture. Then we had operating problems at Black Fox, a fire, a flood in Gold Bar. I'm sorry. I can only laugh a little bit when I think about it. But in the third quarter we started seeing improving performance at Gold Bar. And as you heard from Sylvain, we saw excellent exploration results occurring at Black Fox. So, the fourth quarter, we're coming back on to where we -- after two painful revisions of our guidance, it looks like we're going to come on target for the fourth quarter. And then for 2020 we're looking at some 70,000 ounces coming out -- approximately 60,000, 70,000 ounces coming out of Gold Bar. Black Fox, we're going to cut back our production there and we're going to concentrate on drilling inside the mine. We think there's some excellent potential on the west side of the mine and the mine suffers from not having a good geological model which we've been working to build. And once we have that in place, we think that we can put a mine plan on and create a profitable mine plan there and a longer life than its current very short life. We're also thinking that the Black Fox property has the opportunity to provide us with multiple sources of production, not only from the Froome deposit which we've just started development on. We've -- we're doing our drive our tunnel over to that. It will take about a year. And as you heard from Chris, we expect to see production coming out of this deposit in 2021. We have the Grey Fox deposit to the South end of the Black Fox property -- Black Fox Mine property which -- that's probably a three to four-year of production story. And then over at Stock, some very exciting news in Stock West, but some good grade in Stock East and Stock Keep. That -- we've learned that that mine is considered temporarily suspended by the regulators and would take little to start-up given we put a mine plan on it. So what might be possible three, four years down the road is Black Box could be -- it is very conceptual, but producing 100,000 to 120,000 ounces a year with a good life. These are shallow lines and deposits in a district that is known for having deep roots. So it's -- as I look at it I think we are -- we have a chance. We're optimistic about the future because you have to be after the first half of this year. But next year we're looking at production in the range of 190,000 to 200,000 ounces which was what we were hoping to do this year. And I just want to jump to another topic about us. When I first got involved after leaving Goldcorp, I bought into a company called US Gold and it had a small number of shares outstanding. It had a property in Nevada and that was it. We did -- we listed it -- it traded over the counter. We listed it on Toronto raised some money. And the stock in 2006 ran from $0.36 to over $9. We had 50 million shares outstanding and we got up over $9. And so there was a market cap of about $450 million. In 2009, we raised some money to do more work in Nevada and bring on our Mexican exploration and we were up to 106 million shares. Two years later we raised some additional funds and we're now up to 136 million shares. And our share price went over $9. That gave us a market capital of $1.2 billion. The gold market peaked in 2011. In January of 2012, we merged US Gold with Minera Andes to form McEwen Mining. And that combination we were up to 186 million shares. But we had a source of production out of Argentina, we had a large copper deposit, and we had this development pipeline in Nevada and also in Mexico. The gold market fell apart and everybody was raising money and we needed some money for exploration and development of our projects. So, we did a rights issue. I believe that giving our -- all of our shareholders the opportunity to participate in the financing was what we should be doing. Unfortunately, rights issues are very long, cumbersome and expensive, and you do it at a very significant discount to market to ensure that the rights issue is completed successfully. At the end of the rights -- the $60 million rights offering, our share count went up to 297 million. And then we've done several financings. One in 2017, October, to buy the Black Fox mine for $0.06 on $1. We looked at it, and thought this was a big promising land position in the middle of a very prolific gold district, with a mine that could only be described as a turnaround situation. It was going to require work, but it was the exploration there that was quite intriguing. And I'd have to say, based on the past two years of exploration, it's -- as Sylvain said, it's showing us that our thoughts about the potential have been justify. We did a flow-through financing, which for our non-Canadian shareholders, is a tax-deferred method of raising money, where you can sell your stock at a premium. In this case, at a 24% premium to market, we raised $10 million. Then in the summer of 2018, our share price was around $2.60. I thought it was low. We looked at our projections -- financial projections that we're comfortable, maybe a little tight, but we're comfortable. We could do -- we could handle the debt. We raised $50 million rather than doing equity in hindsight. I should've -- we should've raised equity and not put that pressure of debt on us before we had Gold Bar up and running. A few months later, we did another flow-through funding to finance, again, the exploration on our Black Fox properties. And when we bought Black Fox, not only did it come with 1.25 million ounces and production of 50,000 ounces, but it was high cost. It was short life, but it also had a mill that was an operating mill with excess capacity, and we had visions of increasing our production there from various sources. So we raised some flow-through money at a 26% premium to market. We're now up to 345 million shares. As I said, the first half of this year chopped huge chunk of our revenue out of our forecast, and the debt that we've taken on in the summer of 2018 had some covenants, one of which was working capital. And if you went below that level of working capital, the interest rate would spike, and you'd have to declare a default, neither of which are good news for share prices. And at the end of March, we raised $25 million. $22 million of that came from one shareholder, and the other $3 million came from insiders. So we're at about 362 million shares. Today, our market cap is a little over $500 million, and we're looking at our debt today, looking to rework it, extend the term, possibly lower the interest rates. But I can say that we have advanced -- we have a better asset package than we had back in 2005, than we had in 2011, than we've had any time before this. We have some production growth. At Los Azules, we've advanced significantly. We continue to believe that's a wildcard in our portfolio. We have advanced Mexico, and we've been extending the life in Nevada, and we hope to do the same in Timmins. But I'd also like to apologize to all the shareholders for what has happened this year. It has not been a pleasant time at all, but there's a light ahead a long tunnel, and we're getting close to the end of the tunnel and into the sunshine. So thank you for your patience. If you want to yell at me or anybody else on this call, please feel free to do so. It's perfectly justified. I'd like to open up for questions and answers.