Andrew Clyde
Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is now open
Good morning and welcome to Murphy USA’s first quarter 2017 conference call. I would like to start the call today by referencing our press release from April 18, which stated that first quarter performance was influenced by a variety of market conditions that led to weak financial results beyond normal elements of seasonality. The purpose of the pre-release became obvious when we subsequently launched our bond offering. This maintains our goal of being transparent with both equity and debt investors. We do not expect to make early releases in ongoing element of our cadence. To investors, the most obvious area of underperformance was in the product supply and wholesale results. However, we note that first quarter retail volumes and margins were also both soft compared to 2016. When coupled with higher SG&A expense, which we will discuss later and other operating costs such as credit card fees, which reflect higher gasoline prices in a larger store network, year-over-year adjusted EBITDA of $30.3 million was well below first quarter 2016 results of $83.1 million. While these results were below expectations, it is important to remember that the first quarter typically comprises the smallest contribution to our net income on an annual basis. Moreover, our 2016 Q1 results were well above the prior 4-year average of $39 million. So, on a relative basis, first quarter 2017 results were still below average, but the comparison is not as severe when looking at what was really a very strong first quarter in 2016. At a more granular level, record high gasoline inventories from the early and sustained buildup of winter-grade refined product and subdued retail demand early in the year resulted in depressed wholesale prices and discounted pipelines base values, which negatively impacted product supplies spot-to-rack margin. When coupled with lower RIN prices, which were negatively impacted due to heightened regulatory and political uncertainty first quarter all-in margins were below our expectations and historical average. There are few key points to make here around these results. First, given the heightened level of investor interest in the relationship between RINs and PS&W results and that is what we have spent the majority of our time talking about over the past 9 months. RINs are not the only factor in determining how much gain or loss flows through the product supply business. There are other more fundamental market factors that also influence spot-to rack margins in an oversupplied market with closed ARBs between the Gulf Coast, New York Harbor, negative line space values and weak consumer demand would, of course, be one of those scenarios. While RIN prices remain embedded in the spot price of gasoline, other factors [indiscernible] severely depressed wholesale prices and the spot-to-rack margin. Second, given all that we have said about RINs and the embedded function within the fuel supply chain, at the end of the day, the RIN market is its own paper market, where prices are determined by its own set of supply and demand factors. The most significant of which is the anticipated demand from refineries based on regulations, including the annual volumetric mandate in any associated waivers. Given all the noise and uncertainty about potential changes to the RFS program, we saw an environment where RIN demand was artificially low due to externality outside of the normal market structure. When the political uncertainty was clarified and the regulatory uncertainty resolved for now with the end of the moratorium, RIN prices stepped up were in line with the historical relationships. Third, the retail environment also underwent some challenges. Consumer demand was lower year-over-year versus a very strong first quarter in 2016 and this showed up at the pumps and in customer traffic. First quarter volumes were down 3% on a same-store basis and this coincided with retail margins that were lower across the industry. Finally, markets are characterized by ups and downs by periods of strength and weakness. When we look back at prior periods, first quarter results are usually the least impactful on the full year results and we know prior periods of weakness that were offset by later periods of strong fundamentals. Although, we can’t anticipate nor expect a drop off in crude prices similar to the 2012 and 2014 periods that helped generate strong retail margins to the rest of the year due largely to the fact that crude is trading at a much lower price level. We do expect market conditions to average out over time. And in fact, we have witnessed in recent weeks, improving fundamentals and product supply in wholesale throughout the month of April and an even stronger recovery in retail margins, especially in the last half of April. As a result, given the weak business conditions experienced in the first quarter, we did take the opportunity to maintain transparency with both equity and fixed income investors and revised our full year guidance to reflect the unfavorable business conditions experienced through the first half of April. As expected from taking a longer term view of our business, the bond market responded with enthusiasm to our $300 million debt offer, which was nearly 10x oversubscribed and was priced at a very attractive long-term fixed coupon rate of 5.65%, which will continue to fund our near-term growth plans and other corporate activities, including our share repurchase program. I hope this provide some context and color to the biggest performance driver in Q1 beyond that in the early press release, which was needed prior to the subsequent bond offering. So, let’s move on now and review some of the other parts of the business following our framework of the simple formula for creating shareholder value. The first point is, of course, around organic growth. We opened 5 new sites in the quarter versus a single store in the prior year quarter. Being able to load level our construction process around new stores in conjunction with a more aggressive raze and rebuild program this year will help us control cost and timing around new store openings which were heavily concentrated in the spring and summer months versus the majority of the 2016 build class was put in service late in the third and fourth quarter of last year, which is not an opportune time for new store openings. With stores opening during summer when traffic is heavier is much easier to attract new customers. As mentioned 17 high-performing sites are down for raze and rebuild. We expect to have these sites back up in time for the summer driving season, along with 3 other raze and rebuild projects, which should complete in the fall. While this timing has a noticeable impact on our fuel and tobacco volumes in Q1, this approach generates the best long run performance, which is what matters the most. Additionally, we plan to install approximately 240 of the larger 3-door super coolers this year, which will largely complete our network expansion. We have some other opportunities to add smaller 2-door super coolers that will comprise part of our 2018 CapEx, but these opportunities are fewer in number approximating about 100 locations. As a reminder, the super coolers offers 68% more capacity, a more diverse higher margin mix of beverages outside of the carbonated soft drink category and these additional facings allow us to better execute promotions and qualified for better shelf allowances and rebates. The refresh program is continuing on pace. As a reminder, this is the last year of our accelerated refresh program of around 300 stores. At the end of the year, we will have touched 900 stores in the network leaving roughly 100 to 150 stores that will require a full refresh in 2018 and then a much slower pace, less capital intensive maintenance schedule will continue after that. On fuel contribution, for the retail business, per store volumes on an average per store month basis average 243,000 gallons, a 3.6% decline from 252,000 gallons in the prior period. 1.1% of which is attributable to the extra weekday in 2016. Additionally, we also took down 17 high performing stores for raze and rebuild earlier versus the 10 stores we took down last year later in the first quarter. As these 17 stores had volumes well above the network average, we estimate an additional 40 basis points of lower volumes, suggesting an adjusted per store decline rate closer to 2%. January consumer demand was impacted by three main winter storms, which resulted in soft year-over-year volumes. But I would point out that while quarterly same-store volumes were down 3% year-over-year, March same-store volumes were showing momentum with the 2.8% increase versus March 2016 where prices were rising dramatically. Let’s look at fuel breakeven starting with merchandise margins. As a reminder, there are number of outlier events in adjustments we have to consider when we compare first quarter results to year ago results. The first is of course the extra day in 2016, which creates a roughly 1.1% negative impact on the numbers right of the top. Second, the transition to our new supplier Cormark occurred in February last year and we also received a partial final payment from the claim, which raised our margins in 2016 and this largely shows up in tobacco margins. Third, as you recall, there is a $1.6 billion lotto jackpot in play last January, which generated large margin contribution from the lottery category that was not repeated in 2017. And last, we have recognized that the market environment was not strong to start the year tracking along the lines of fuel demand in January. So the negative comps are not all one-time items, but I would point out that we existed March with momentum in merchandise and with some new initiatives we are seeing Q2 results that are more representative of the potential of our business. Total merchandise margins in the quarter averaged 15.7%, up 40 basis points from 15.3% a year ago. Total merchandise contribution on a per store basis decreased slightly to $21,307, down from $21,506 a year ago, partially attributable to the one-time events already mentioned. We will say January and February results weighed heavily on the year-over-year comps. For a perspective, March performance show tobacco margins up 2.9% on a year-on-year basis on a 3.7% decline in per store sales, while non-tobacco sales were up 8.7% driving an 8.4% increase in year-over-year margins. We continue to make progress on operating expenses through store level efficiencies as we drove down operating expenses before credit card fees by 2.5% on a per store basis during the quarter. In the phase of ups and downs on fuel volatility, we continue to see and execute on opportunities to improve our fuel breakeven and long-term competitiveness. With that, I will turn things over to Mindy.