Mike Milotich
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thank you, Jason. Although I know many of you on the call today, I'm excited to speak with you in my new capacity as the CFO at Marqeta after joining the company 2 weeks ago. While Marqeta has already reached significant scale with over $110 billion in TPV in 2021, there is still a massive opportunity to support innovative partners who are meeting evolving consumer needs in digital commerce and global money movement. I look forward to partnering with Jason, the executive team and all of our employees to help the disruptors scale and those at scale become more disruptive. Marqeta delivered a very strong quarter to close out our first fiscal year as a public company with both TPV and net revenue growth accelerating to 76%. Net revenue of $155 million and adjusted EBITDA of positive $1 million were meaningfully better than we expected primarily for 2 reasons: one, stronger holiday and overall consumer spending drove the majority of the upside, benefiting the BNPL and digital banking verticals in particular; and two, higher card network incentives as a result of reaching a new performance tier. So let's dive into the Q4 TPV, which was $33 billion, growing 76%, accelerating 16 points from Q3. BNPL benefited from the increased consumer spend during the holiday season, growing over 50% sequentially versus Q3. Digital banking growth accelerated 15 points versus Q3, in line with the overall TPV acceleration. Newer clients and growing verticals increased their contribution to our growth as we continue to diversify our customer base. Our top 5 customers continue to perform well with TPV growth over 50% in Q4, while the remaining customers grew over 200%. As further evidence of our growing diversification, newer customers who joined our platform since 2019 grew 3x faster than customers who joined the platform prior to 2019. The growth of these newer customers and outperformance from the BNPL vertical were a big reason why we saw another significant decline in our top customer concentration, which Jason highlighted earlier. Net revenue growth of 76% was consistent with TPV growth and accelerated 20 points versus Q3. The net revenue take rate declined less than 1 bp versus Q3 purely due to changes in the mix of volume. In fact, the Q4 take rate improved versus Q3 within several of our large verticals. Gross profit grew 108% on a year-over-year basis, over 30 points faster than revenue. The gross profit margin of 49% improved 4 points versus Q3 for 2 reasons, each contributing approximately 2 points. First, incentives. We amended one of our card network incentive agreements in Q2, and we hit a new volume tier in Q4 that resulted in a higher incentive being applied to volume over the past 3 quarters. Therefore, the 3-quarter catch-up benefit was booked in Q4, which made the impact more significant. These incentive agreements are a testament to our strategic relationships and strong alignment with network partners as well as the powerful operating leverage that can be achieved in our business as we scale. The second factor was volume mix. The holiday season had a TPV mix that provided more favorable gross profit. Our GAAP net loss was $37 million driven mostly by continued investment in people and technology that are fueling the growth of our business and the scaling of our platform. On a non-GAAP basis, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was positive $1 million, which exceeded our expectations by roughly $10 million, entirely due to higher gross profit. To quickly summarize full year 2021 performance, TPV of $111 billion and net revenue of $517 million delivered robust growth of 85% and 78%, respectively. Gross profit grew 97% with a gross profit margin of 45%, which is on the high end of our long-term target range of 40% to 45% due to improved scale and favorable network incentives. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $13 million, equating to a negative 2% adjusted EBITDA margin. We ended the year with over $1.7 billion in available liquidity in cash and marketable securities. Now let me move on to 2022. First, let me share some of the key assumptions informing our Q1 guidance that was noted in our press release. We expect Q1 net revenue growth to be between 48% and 50%. Our take rate should be relatively similar to last quarter. Therefore, the lower growth compared to Q4 '21 is related to volume growth, mostly due to 2 factors. Q1 is facing tougher comps due to the government stimulus in the first quarter of 2021, and to a much smaller degree, the beginning of the ramp in BNPL volume. Our sequential net revenue growth last year from Q4 '20 to Q1 '21 was 22% compared to an average of 15% growth from Q4 to Q1 in 2019 and 2020. This tough comp is partially offset by the tax season returning to April this year, where the benefits of tax refunds are split across Q1 and Q2 versus last year when the benefit was mostly in Q2. Also, January got off to a bit of a slower start as Omicron likely impacted volume in many of our verticals with the exception of on-demand delivery, which thrived as more people stayed home. Volume did pick up in February as the Omicron wave passed, with February volume comfortably exceeding January despite having 3 fewer days. Q1 gross profit margin should be in the 43% to 44% range, which is consistent with the first 3 quarters of 2021. This is lower than Q4 '21, which benefited from the catch-up incentives and favorable volume mix during the holiday season. We expect the Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin to be negative 8% to 9% due to elevated investment levels to drive long-term sustainably high net revenue growth. I will talk more about our investment priorities for 2022 in a minute. Amid the current economic uncertainty, I did want to share some preliminary thoughts on 2022, and we'll plan to share more next quarter once I'm completely settled in here at Marqeta. It remains to be seen whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine will have any broader implications that may impact our business. Similar to previous years, we expect the majority of our growth to come from our largest customers, which are spread across the digital banking, on-demand delivery, BNPL and expense management verticals. Our newer customers are growing several multiples faster than our top customers, and therefore, growing in share but even our largest customers keep growing at a strong pace as evidenced by our high revenue retention of 175% in 2021. Our business massively expanded during COVID. 2021 net revenue was more than 3.5x 2019 net revenue. The pandemic accelerated consumer adoption and usage of newer commerce experiences, such as on-demand delivery and BNPL, where Marqeta was an early innovator and market leader supporting many of the top companies in those categories. The increased shift to digital payments during COVID has also led to increases in consumers using digital bank or neobank offerings, which tend to provide great digital user experiences. Again, this is a market where Marqeta established early leadership. As a result, we are growing off a much larger base of business in 2022. The pandemic recovery is now well underway, and consumers' new commerce habits are sticking and stabilizing. Therefore, we expect our net revenue growth to be at least mid-30s for full year 2022. To put the change in scale during the pandemic into context, let me share one fact. We expect our year-over-year revenue growth in dollars in 2022 to be larger than our total net revenue just 3 years ago in 2019. Consistent with the scaling over time, net revenue will grow the fastest in Q1, step down several points sequentially in both Q2 and Q3 before a larger step down in Q4 as we lap the incredible quarter we just finished. Also note that Block's acquisition of Afterpay, who is also a meaningful client for us, means we don't expect to make progress on our Block concentration as we add Afterpay performance to Block's starting in Q1 2022. If we were to normalize for the acquisition and combine the companies for past years, we do expect a minor reduction in our concentration. We expect 2022 TPV to grow faster than net revenue at over 40% with take rates declining slightly on a year-over-year basis, on par with the decline in 2021 as customers who grow in our platform enjoy better pricing. This is partially offset within gross profit by achieving better pricing from our card network and bank partners. We expect our gross profit margin to be in the low to mid-40s, consistent with our long-term guidance of 40% to 45% on an annual basis. Network incentives can be inconsistent as we just saw in Q4 '21, so let me share a few more details to help with the quarterly cadence. Our incentives operate on a contract year that runs from April through March, which means volume tiers reset in Q2 of each year. This means Q2 will typically be a lower gross profit margin quarter, generally at the bottom of our long-term range, while Q3 to Q1 of the following year typically benefit from growing cumulative volumes. If we hit certain volume milestones in individual quarter can be above the long-term range. Based on our client pipeline and because of the time it takes to onboard and ramp new clients, we need to invest in advance of the revenue to best position us for success. Therefore, we expect the adjusted EBITDA margin to be negative high single digits in 2022 and relatively consistent with each quarter, except Q2 will be a few points lower due to the lower gross profit margin. While the investments we make in 2022 will result in negative EBITDA in the short term, we are looking to achieve sustainably rapid growth while also being committed to a path to profitability. In the long run, we remain confident the business will operate at a 20%-plus adjusted EBITDA margin once we have captured more of the immense market opportunity. We began stepping up our level of investment as we progress through 2021 as it became clear our revenue and gross profit were scaling rapidly. We plan to stay on that investment cadence through 2022. The investment is mostly directed towards technology and product, primarily through hiring in those areas as well as increasing software and services to support our platform. The primary focus of the investment is new capabilities in digital banking and credit, international expansion and platform scale. Once the volume is captured, our unit economics are very attractive due to low marginal operating costs with the ability to generate positive EBITDA as we did in this most recent quarter. To close, Marqeta just completed a fantastic year, surpassing $500 million in net revenue. Looking ahead, we have a wealth of opportunities ahead of us, including new products, geographies and verticals, all while our existing customers thrive on our platform. We believe our differentiated offering will continue to be the destination for disruptors as digital commerce and global money movement rapidly evolve, fueling strong growth for many years to come. I will now turn the call back over to Stacey and the operator for questions.