John Van Heel
Analyst · FTI Consulting. Please go ahead
Thanks, Effie. Good morning and thank you for joining us on today's call. We are pleased that you are with us to discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal 2017 results. Today, we will start with a review of our results and update on our growth strategy followed by our outlook for fiscal 2018. Then I'll turn the call over to Brian D'Ambrosia, our Chief Financial Officer, who will provide additional details on our financial results. Looking back over fiscal 2017, our business was impacted by challenging economic conditions facing our customers coupled with unseasonable weather particularly in the fourth quarter which led to a decline in comparable store sales for the fiscal year of 4.3%. As we have in the past, our company responded to this difficult environment by capitalizing on attractive acquisition opportunities allowing us to grow our total sales for the fiscal year by 8% to a record $1,022,000,000 while limiting our earnings downside through effective cost management. Importantly as we entered fiscal 2018, our fiscal 2017 acquisition which includes 71 stores and approximately $150 million in annualized sales growth over fiscal 2016, they set a strong foundation for future sales and earnings growth. Additionally, our significant Greenfield expansion added 30 more stores in fiscal 2017 providing us with greater store density and sales in our core markets at very attractive cost. I will provide more details behind our 2018 in a moment but first I would like to recap our fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2017 results. Total sales in the fourth quarter increased 10% on strong acquisition growth despite a decline in comparable store sales of 8%. Following a strong December which posted positive comparable store sales of 11% in the month led by tires, we saw weaker top line trends in the fourth quarter. From a geographic perspective, the moderate weather in the fourth quarter led to regional disparity in comparable store sales performance as our Northern Markets underperformed our southern markets by 500 basis points. We believe these top line trends and regional differences are very similar to the sales cadence of other competitors in the aftermarket space, as well as the acquisition candidates we are engaging with. We are not only continuing to maintain our market share but we believe we are making more money in this difficult environment than our competition. So far in fiscal 2018, we see meaningful improvement in comparable store sales which were up approximately 3% in April and 2% month-to-date in fiscal May. The comp increase is being driven by an increase in average ticket. This increase is led in part by higher average tier ticket of 2%. We are also encouraged to see strength in the brake category with higher than average ticket repairs. We believe this may signal that customers report more work to be done after long deferring repairs. Additionally, the geographic disparity between our northern and southern markets has narrowed in terms in favor of our northern markets quarter-to-date both regions are comping positive. In fact our strongest markets has been New Jersey, New York and Maryland in which we have seen high single and double-digit comp sales increases. Despite these positive trends quarter-to-date, we remain cautious with respect to the health of our consumer and are hopeful that we will finally see normalized weather in the second half of this fiscal year following two consecutive warm winters. Turning to gross margins, fourth quarter gross margins declined by 310 basis points versus the prior year primarily as a result of the sales mix impact from fiscal 2017 acquisitions and de-leverage from negative comparable store sales. On a comparable store basis, portfolio gross margin declined by 40 basis points year-over-year due to deleverage. For fiscal year on a comparable store basis, gross margin declined by only 20 basis points despite the second worst comparable store sales decline in 20 years, while I'm not happy about our comps, our ability to maintain our gross margin and minimize the impact on profitability highlights the strength of our business model in tough operating environment. Turning to expenses, total operating expenses for the fourth quarter increased by $7.7 million however on a comparable store basis, total operating expense dollar actually declined slightly year-over-year underscoring our diligent cost control and performance based plans. Now I would like to provide a brief update on a number of new customer focus enhancements we began implementing across our store base in late fiscal 2017 and into 2018 to drive sales and efficiency. These include new ways to communicate directly with our customers including the ability to send text messages directly from our stores, a new and improved customer relationship management system and use online informative videos educating our customers on service and repairs helping us close more sales. Second improvements to our point of sales systems including improved fleet business processing, more efficient tire quotes and enhanced electronic ordering from our parts vendors which will result in lower price cost. Third a comprehensive online training program to more fully support the career development of our technicians and fourth the launch in March of our new private label credit card named the Drive Card. This new bank sponsored credit card is exclusive to Monro brands and provides us with complete control over customer targeted marketing and promotional offers which we believe will drive greater long-term customer loyalty. We have been very pleased with the early results of the Drive Card as our total sales volume on this card has already surpassed the Goodyear cards that we previously issued. In March and April we processed just short of 10% of our overall retail sales on these cards and look to close the Drive Card's penetration to 20% of retail sales. Our field team has embraced this customer loyalty tool as demonstrated by the fact that we are currently taking about five times the number of applications we work before this launch. Our fiscal 2018 budget includes great Drive Card offers such as discounts and changes, service discounts and career rebates which we believe will drive increased returns from our customer and attracts some new ones as well. We expect these initiatives to be positive contributors to traffic, employee retention and store efficiency in fiscal 2018 and we also believe there remains significant opportunities to incorporate technology throughout our business and help our teams drive top line growth. It's also worth noting that we continue to see strong increases in our online appointments which were up approximately 20% for the fiscal year. Additionally, the customer reviews we collected in fiscal 2017 remains very favorable with an overall satisfaction score of 4.5 out of 5 on 100,000 completed surveys. Now let's turn to our growth strategy. We are continuing the integration of our fiscal 2017 acquisitions which is progressing in line with our plans and is expected to add approximately $150 million in annualized sales representing 15% sales growth over fiscal 2016. This includes the most recent acquisition completed in our fourth quarter of 16 Car-X stores, 13 of which are located in Illinois and three of which are in Iowa. We continue to expect these stores to generate $15 million in annualized sales representing a sales mix of 75% service and 25% tires. As a reminder, we also completed the acquisition of Clark Tire in mid-September which is expected to add approximately $85 million in annualized sales representing a sales mix of approximately 50% retail and commercial and 50% wholesale and lastly the McGee Auto Service & Tires acquisition completed in May of 2016 is expected to deliver $50 million in annualized sales representing a sales mix of 40% service and 60% tires. These fiscal 2017 acquisitions are strategically significant because they expand our retail and commercial business by 71 stores and $105 million in the key markets of Florida, North Carolina and Illinois while also adding $45 million of wholesale tire sales which combined increases both our scale and market share. They increase our tire unit purchases by approximately 25% expanding our tire assortments and strengthening our purchasing power which is particularly important as we enter the first fiscal year of tire cost increases in several years and we look to move purchasing volume to manufacturers with the most attractive costs. They allow us to directly distribute tires to approximately 100 of our stores or roughly 10% of our chains strengthening our position as an independent dealer and reducing our reliance on distributors thereby allowing us to maximize profitability while creating new organic growth opportunities in the wholesale locations themselves and lastly they expand our acquisition opportunities to include competitors with integrated retail commercial in wholesale locations. We believe these acquisitions will continue to strengthen our competitiveness in the market while also providing another valuable avenue of growth over the next several years. As we told you in the past, our long-term acquisition growth is underpinned by independent deal is getting older and not having an internal succession option, that said we continue to see an elevated level of acquisition opportunities in the marketplace and as a result of the difficult operating environment. We are more than 10 MDA signed each of them represents in five, between 5 and 40 stores within our existing markets, we will continue to capitalize on these attractive opportunities and aggressively grow and expand our business. However any potential reduction in tax rates for small businesses contemporarily delays some transactions through the second half of fiscal 2018. At the same time, a rising cost environment for tires should pressure the earnings of smaller dealers which should result in more attractive prices for these businesses. We are also continuing our Greenfield expansion with the goal of opening between 20 to 40 stores per year. In fiscal 2017, we opened 30 Greenfield locations and we expect to open a similar number in fiscal 2018 including approximately seven locations in the first quarter. As a reminder, Greenfield stores for us includes new construction as well as the acquisition of one to four store operations. These locations are expected to average approximately $1 million in annual sales and require roughly half the investment per store compared to a larger acquisition which should result in an even high return on investment over time. Turning now to our outlook for fiscal 2018 based on current economic conditions, the contribution of recent acquisitions and positive quarter-to-date comparable store sales, we expect total sales in the first quarter of fiscal 2018 to be in the range of $217 million to $275 million representing an increase of 14% to 16% year-over-year, this is based on an increase in comparable store sales of 2% to 3%. We anticipate first quarter dilutive earnings per share to be in the range of $0.52 to $0.56 an increase of 4% to 12% year-over-year compared to $0.50 in the first quarter of last year. Please note that our first quarter earnings per share guidance seems slight contribution from our fiscal 2017 acquisitions. For the full fiscal year, we anticipate comparable store sales to increase 2% to 4% on a 52 week basis or 4% to 6% when accounting for the 2% comp sales benefit from an extra week in our fourth quarter. We expect fiscal 2018 total sales of $1.125 billion to $1.155 million representing an increase of 10% to 13% year-over-year. As mentioned previously, our comparable store sales quarter-to-date are up approximately 2.6% driven by higher average tickets. For the fiscal year, we expect that higher tire selling prices driven by the pass-through of higher cost will lead to a sustained increase in overall average ticket of 2% to 3% year-over-year. Please note that the high end of our fiscal 2018 comparable store sales guidance also incorporates a 1% traffic increase. Fiscal 2018 guidance does not assume any future acquisitions or Greenfield store openings. Now let's turn to our outlook on costs. As we mentioned on our last earnings call, recent increases in raw materials have led several tire manufacturers doing price increases of between 3% to 14% with the highest of these increases driven by branded tire manufacturers. Importantly, the level of price increase varies significantly by manufacturers with several manufacturers actually beginning to offset these announced increases with additional volume rebates as raw materials moderate. It is important to note that our direct import tires have been subject to cost increases towards the lower end of the range referenced. These imported tires represent approximately one third of our tire units sold in the fourth quarter and allow us the flexibility to source tires at attractive costs as well as realize higher gross profit dollars per tire branded alternative. Our fiscal 2018 guidance incorporates a cost increase for tires and oil combined which we believe will be lower than most competitors particularly smaller independent dealers. This guidance reflects higher cost for tires partially offset by lower oil costs. In light of these cost increases, we expect to generate operating leverage on a comparable store sales increase above 2%. This is higher than reflect the negative comparable store sales we needed to level expenses in recent years. Also every 1% increase in comparable store sales above this 2% threshold generates an incremental $0.08 in EPS for the fiscal year excluding the extra week. Based on these assumptions we expect fiscal 2018 earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $2.10 to $2.30 representing earnings growth of 14% to 24%. This includes $0.10 in contribution from the extra weeks in the fourth quarter and $0.15 to $0.19 in accretion from fiscal 2016 and fiscal 2017 acquisitions. The mid-point of our fiscal 2018 guidance assumes an increase in operating margin of 70 basis points. As we discussed with you on recent calls and as seen again this quarter the commercial and wholesale location we acquired as part of the McGee and Clark Tire acquisitions operate at a lower gross margin primarily due to higher sales mix of tires and the respectful wholesale business of higher sales mix of tires without installation. Rather these acquisitions also refer a lower level of SG&A expenses, therefore we continue to expect this change in our sales mix will continue to reduce the gross margin by approximately 250 basis points and be offset by a similar reduction in SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales until we fully wrap these acquisitions in the third quarter of fiscal 2018. Importantly, we continue to have a favorable outlook for the industry and we expect trends will continue to strengthen moving forward. Most beneficial to our business is that total deal closing operations are expected to grow over the next five years with vehicles in our sweet spot of six year old and older representing the vast majority of this growth. This is in contrast to the pressure on this group over the past several years including a significant decline in vehicles, six years old to 10 years old. Additionally, the number of service base is expected to continue its slow steady decline. These trends represents a tailwind to our comparable store sales over the next several years. Vehicles 13 years or older accounted for 28% of our traffic in fiscal 2017 up from 26% last year providing further evidence that the average age of vehicles continues to rise. These vehicles produce average tickets similar to our overall average demonstrating that customers continue to invest in and maintain their vehicles even as they advance in age. And with that, I would like to turn the call over to Brian D'Ambrosia for a more detailed review of our financial results. Brian?