Alfred E. Mann
Analyst · Piper Jaffray
Thank you, Hakan, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. During the last conference call, we reported we had completed recruitment for the 2 key clinical trials, MKC-171 in type 1 diabetes, now known as Affinity 1; and MKC-175 in insulin-naive type 2 diabetes, now known as Affinity 2. Those 2 recruiting milestones were critical because they have set the timeline for a completion of those trials that will be the primary basis of our NDA resubmission to the FDA. Hakan has described some of the details in the progress of those 2 trials, and I'm going to provide a little more detail so that we can focus more on some of the details and results that we expect. This study protocol was generated in close collaboration with the FDA. After run-in period of 4 weeks for Affinity 1 and 6 for Affinity 2, there are 12 weeks of titration, 12 weeks of treatment and a 4-week follow-up after completion of the therapy. Affinity 1 will thus complete in late May and Affinity 2 in mid-June. Data log and preparation of the resubmission will take at least about 3 months, so as Hakan noted, the filing is anticipated in late September, early October. We should be able to release the Affinity trial results in August. We had reported that for these trials, the FDA wanted to include patients with A1Cs averaging between 8% and 8.5%. Such a high average A1C required of some patients at baseline A1C of 10% or more. Those high initial A1Cs will enable a patient to show truly substantial lowering, but as the premier centers are conducting these trials, there are not many such poorly controlled patients. To satisfy that baseline and ensure that we have more than 399 and 246 completers respectively for the 2 studies, we screened 1,402 patients for Affinity 1 and 1,381 for Affinity 2. That was a major challenge and took more time but was successfully achieved. One of our concerns had been potential patient dropout because of the substantial demands on the patients in those trials. We therefore overenrolled to better ensure that we have adequate statistical power. We are pleased to report that both studies are tracking well. At this point, we are quite confident that the trial will be completed as scheduled with more than enough patients. As of last week, 297 patients already completed the treatment phase for Affinity 1, that's about almost 75% of the total, and 167 for Affinity 2 or approximately 2/3 -- a little over 2/3 of the target. For almost all of the major earlier trials, the primary target was noninferiority for A1C versus rapid-acting analogue prandial insulin. The endpoints of those trials were successfully met and showed AFREZZA to comparable to the best of the current prandial insulins in A1C. Additionally, those studies showed clear advantages of AFREZZA [ph] and other measures of efficacy and also a much lower incidence of hypoglycemia. Yet even though the kinetic dynamic profile of AFREZZA is so much more physiologic, our early trials were not yet able to clearly validate superiority of AFREZZA for A1C. But that can be explained. Since A1C effectively reflects the average blood sugar over about 2 to 3 months, substantial lowering of A1Cs can only be realized by reducing fasting level, as well as lowering prandial rises. However, since the excessive late persistence of current prandial insulin is the primary cause of hypoglycemia, out of concern for such risk in clinical practice today, physicians typically resist increasing basal insulin to lower fasting levels. As a consequence, they are managing their diabetes patients at very high fasting glucose levels that result in higher A1Cs with increased risk of long-term diabetic complications. Since there is no excessive -- such excessive persistence with AFREZZA, fasting glucose can be much more safely lowered. At a fasting level over 100 milligrams per deciliter, it's really hard to imagine how the kinetic dynamic profile of AFREZZA could lead even to a mild hypoglycemic incident. Modular A1Cs should thus be achievable, and that would reduce the risk of long-term complications of diabetes. Since our earlier trials, basal insulins were actually not titrated, the fasting glucose for the AFREZZA patients were thus excessive. What is different in this trial is the protocol very clearly defines the proper titration of the basal insulin. As a result, the AFREZZA patients end up with much lower fasting levels, though far less change would likely be possible with the current prandial insulin because of their excessive persistence. The caveat of this is that nonphysiologic interpatient variability in glargine, the basal insulin used in Affinity 1, which can also cause -- which is really the primary cause of hypoglycemia, there will probably be some residual hypos even in the AFREZZA cohort. Past experience suggest that there should not be many of those exceptions, so we are confident of good outcomes in this -- in the trial. Expectations for the Affinity 2 trial in insulin-naive type 2 are also very positive. Approval for such patients would rise only modest comparative advantages for A1C in this study for the patients of AFREZZA versus those on the placebo. Prior trials have shown that AFREZZA itself lowered fasting glucose levels. According to opinion leaders, because it reduces insulin resistance. That effect, coupled with the adequate dosing to reduce prandial rises, should enable much lower A1Cs for the oppressive cohort with virtually no risk of hypoglycemia. Enrollment in this trial also includes some patients with very high fasting glucose levels of A1Cs. For those type 2 patients with more advanced disease, they will surely benefit from the substantial lowering dose measures of AFREZZA, but they should be using basal insulin in addition to AFREZZA. In any case, this trial ought to validate AFREZZA as a very effective and very safe antiglycemic agent in insulin-naive type 2 diabetics. Ultimately, we anticipate the use of AFREZZA throughout the entire spectrum of diabetes, not only for Type 1 but also for gestational diabetes and almost the entire range of type 2, at least after metformin. That would seem to offer an enormous opportunity for AFREZZA, although our factory, even with additional equipment, will be able to serve only about 2 million people. I anticipate that we will surely soon need to plan additional manufacturing facilities. As I have communicated before, I believe AFREZZA will become a major weapon in the battle against the global diabetes pandemic. AFREZZA is so very significant because it addresses the prandial glycemic problem in the most natural and most effective way. AFREZZA delivers the very same regular insulin that is supplied from a healthy human pancreas. Importantly, AFREZZA's kinetic dynamic profile in the blood quite closely mimics the natural insulin physiology of a nondiabetic in response to a typical meal. AFREZZA should thus enable a much improved glycemic control without the serious problems, risks and limitations of current antiglycemic products. And I mean not just today's insulins but also the alternative antiglycemic drugs. The value of the alternative antiglycemics is really due to the lack of any physiologic insulins today. Indeed, in spite of the deficiencies with days of exogenous insulin products, the limited efficacy benefits, the side effects and the potential safety risk of the alternative antiglycemics are fostering a growing movement towards early use of insulin in type 2. A more physiologic insulin should surely accelerate that movement. The American Diabetes Association is one of the organizations urging ever earlier use of insulin. In the January 28, 2013, issue of The Wall Street Journal, there was a frightening article entitled, "Grim New Diabetes Milestone," expressing serious concern about the explosion of type 2 diabetes in children. Metformin, now the only oral antiglycemic approved for use by children, is apparently much less effective in pediatric patients, more even with than in adults. What appears to be evolving for these young patients is far greater early use of insulin soon after diagnosis. The ultrafast kinetic dynamic profile of AFREZZA should certainly be even more important for children. Moreover, the simple, discrete and convenient inhalation of AFREZZA should be an important contributor to compliance, especially in the very young. However, AFREZZA will not soon be available for pediatric patients. The clinical trials to date were all in adults, and the initial label upon approval will be limited to use by people over the age of 18. Last year, that FDA requested we submit a protocol for a Phase IV study in pediatric patients. They directed us to conduct that clinical trial in children down to age 4. The protocol is almost final, but as the Phase IV trial will not be initiated until after approval of AFREZZA for adults. Key opinion leaders are becoming increasingly positive and enthusiastic about the potential of AFREZZA. Some are suggesting that by reducing pancreatic stress, AFREZZA may slow and perhaps stop and even reverse progression of type 2 disease. Moreover, delivery of AFREZZA by the inhalation with a tiny, whistle-size inhaler is so simple, so convenient and will be so very cost effective. I truly believe many patients will prefer this therapy modality. As I have consistently said in previous calls, I am absolutely convinced that AFREZZA will become widely recognized by patients and clinicians alike as the better, safer and more effective therapy throughout almost the entire diabetes spectrum. For quite a few years in the future, I assert that AFREZZA plus the basal insulin patch pump ought to be the optimum basal-bolus therapy for type 1 and late type 2 diabetic patients. Since the first launch of early type 2 is prandial control, not fasting control, at least after metformin, an ideal therapy for most of these patients should be AFREZZA alone -- or along with metformin. As you can see, I remain absolutely confident of the clinical significance and the enormous opportunity with the AFREZZA. And now let me open -- let's open up the call to your questions. Operator?