Richard Montoni
Analyst · CJS Securities
Thanks, David, and good morning everyone. With another solid quarter of financial results behind us, we are able to raise our earnings outlook for the year and affirm the growth platform for fiscal 2013. Today, I’ll focus my comments on some notable events since our last call including health care reform and new awards in both current and new geographies.
I’d like to start off with an update on our domestic operations. On the health services side, the Supreme Court’s decision earlier this summer reaffirmed that health care reform remains a great opportunity for MAXIMUS. The court’s decision clarified the States must proceed with some form of health insurance exchange, but Medicaid expansion is now optional.
Let’s start with the State Hicks procurement environment. Most of the procurements to date have been heavily weighted towards technology-only bids. We recently announced our first health insurance exchange award, a $41 million contract to design, develop and implement the technical solution for Minnesota’s exchange. The Minnesota RFP was the first in the marketplace with a strong focus on the consumer facing components of the exchange. As we’ve said early on, our focus for exchanges is primarily an operations in business process management. As the prime contractor, MAXIMUS will lead a team of specialized technology firms. With our direct experience in process model development and delivery execution, our role in Minnesota is a natural extension of our core competencies. We can draw on our deep experience of implementing business process model improvements and delivering efficiencies and eligibility in enrollment for large public health insurance programs.
As we begin our work on the Minnesota exchange, we continue to remain well positioned for the downstream future operations of the exchanges. We believe there are only a handful of BPO vendors who are logical players in the health insurance exchange operations markets. As the deadline approaches for exchange operations to begin in fall of 2013, States are evaluating their procurement approaches. We believe that some States will look to leverage existing service center infrastructures and contractual relationships. Consequently, we think we are in a really good position to win our fair share of exchange operations awards.
Looking down the pipeline, we believe that approximately 20 States, most of which have received substantial grants, are best positioned for a State-based exchange. 12 of these 20 States recently affirmed to the Secretary of Health and Human services their intent to create State-based health insurance exchanges. Approximately 24 States remain undecided. These States are considering whether to develop their own exchange or adopt either of the Federally Facilitated Exchange, or FFE, or State partnership models either as a long term solution or as a temporary bridge to a fully State-based exchange. The remaining 6 States will most likely participate in the FFE.
The Federal government is in the process of building the technology for their exchange and we expect to see additional procurements for the operations and other support functions later this year. We believe MAXIMUS is well positioned to support the Federal exchange initiatives through our Federal services subsidiary. Regardless of the model or path the States choose, it’s important to note that health care reform is a multiyear effort, and that revenue from health insurance exchanges will not reach mature levels until fiscal 2015 or 2016.
The Supreme Court ruling also gives States additional flexibility on the timing and scope of Medicaid expansion. So States are carefully studying the economic impacts of Medicaid expansion. With 100% Federal funding, initially decreasing to 90% in later years, States may have a hard time turning down Federal dollars for services and programs that they currently fund largely from their own budgets. States must also consider how hospitals who handle lower disproportionate hospital share, or DISH payments, for uninsured individuals without the additional coverage from Medicaid. And there’s been substantial discussions on how Medicaid expansion can benefit local economies through job creation and health services industry. However, a recent GAO survey of State Budget Directors highlights concerns that the technology administrative cost of Medicaid expansion would outweigh prospective savings for States in the near term. Some States are waiting for the November elections, while others are requesting additional flexibility through the waiver process, such as block grants or unrestricted lump sum payments. So we recognize that not every State will proceed with Medicaid expansion and those that do may implement at different points in time.
Following the Supreme Court ruling, the Congressional budget office revised their coverage expectations of their health care reform. CBO has now stated that the direction of States remains uncertain and now estimates that 11 million new enrollees will come in by 2022, down 35% from their original estimate of 17 million. Based on this estimated 35% reduction, we have modified our expectations for the annual total addressable market under Medicaid expansion accordingly. We now expect this addressable market to range between $130 million and $200 million annually. The low end of the range establishes a floor if certain States never expand Medicaid. However, we think that the more likely scenario is that over time many States will ultimately elect to expand their Medicaid programs over the coming years.
As a result of the affordable Care Act's enhanced outreach in streamline eligibility rules and systems, most Medicaid programs, even those in the non-expansion States will likely experience increased enrollments of currently eligible individuals. This is often referred to as the welcome mat or the woodwork effect. So moving forward, we continue to expect that the States will seek multiple paths to drive efficiencies and contain costs including shifting Medicaid populations into managed care.
California is one State that is taking a number of steps to increase efficiencies and manage costs. The State has a plan in motion to shift Medi-Cal/Medicaid populations from additional counties into managed care beginning in mid-2013. The State also plans to move Medicare benefits for its dual-eligibles in Medi-Cal, and we are in the early planning stages to support the States on both of these efforts. Under the 2 initiatives, the State estimates savings of approximately $1.7 billion by the end of 2014.
Additionally, California’s fiscal 2013 budget includes an initiative to move the children served by the healthy family’s CHIP program into Medi-Cal. The transition is currently expected to begin no earlier than January 2013, will be done in multiple phases and is expected to last a full year. We are working closely with the Managed Risk Medical Insurance Board and the Department of Health Care Services on how we can best support the transition planning, design and implementation activities.
We are in active discussions with our California clients and we believe we may likely retain several of the operational functions we perform in the CHIP program today. The program generated just over $50 million in revenue in fiscal 2011 since the shift from Healthy Families in the Medi-Cal won’t be a one-to-one revenue match; we know revenue will be lower. But at this point in time, we cannot speculate on how much until we finalize the scope of work that we will likely to continue to perform.
New Hampshire is another State that’s moving individuals into managed care in response to the increased Medicaid expenditure and the need to improve services to beneficiaries. MAXIMUS is one of small but strategic contract with the State to operate a temporary call center to assist Medicaid participants with the self-selection and enrollment into managed care plans. We are pleased to develop relationships and serve the Medicaid population in a new state.
Turning now to our Federal operations. We are very much on track with our expansion strategy. As we mentioned previously, we are enhancing our current offerings and looking at new agencies and adjacent markets where we can apply our core competencies. In contrast to the defense contracting market, we see promising new emerging opportunities in the health and human services space. Our sales pipeline for longer term Federal opportunities has grown significantly over the last 18 months and we have successfully added 7 new government-wide acquisition contracts, or what is referred to as GWACs, to our available contracting vehicles. And we recently won a CMS duals program assessment contract which is small, but strategic in our swim lane. The progress of our Federal services team is sowing the seeds for growth for fiscal 2013 and beyond.
Finally, wrapping up our domestic update with human services. The integration of PSI is moving forward as planned. The additional resources we’ve picked up, including top flight proposals and solution teams, are a tremendous assets to our business development efforts. Let me share a couple of examples, MAXIMUS recently started work on a new child support services project in Missouri, under a 3-year, $5.7 million contract, which also carries an additional 3 option years thereafter. We’ve also expanded our geographic presence with a one-year $2 million workforce services contract in South Carolina for the jobs upfront Mean More Pay, or JUMMP program. This program has four additional one-year option periods following the base contract.
Moving now to our international operations. I just returned from a visit to U.K. where I had the pleasure of meeting with the team. I am pleased that overall the program operations remain on track and as David noted, we still expect the contract to breakeven during the fourth quarter, setting as on the right path for fiscal 2013. As you know, the economy continues to be a challenge for the U.K. and the work program has received both positive and negative media attention. However, the government and MAXIMUS both remain committed to the success of this important welfare reform initiative.
We also have good news out of Australia to share this morning. We were recently awarded a contract with a new client, the Department of Immigration and Citizenship. The 20-month contract has an estimated value between $15 million and $20 million depending on the specific client volumes and has a 12-month extension option. This new work should more than offset a couple of short-term initiatives that were completed earlier this year. Under this new award, MAXIMUS will provide client support and independent observer services for the young, unaccompanied asylum seeker and refugees arriving in Australia. MAXIMUS is excited to be delivering these very important support services for the Department of Immigration and Citizenship to clients originating from countries around the world.
And finally, we have a very exciting development in the expansion of our global operations. MAXIMUS has been selected to operate a pilot program to provide assistance to job seekers in Saudi Arabia. The contract was signed in June and operations went live last week. The program is expected to provide 15 months of revenue in the range of $12 million to $15 million. MAXIMUS is serving job seekers through 5 sites, providing case management support and addressing barriers to employment. Each site has a business development officer to develop and maintain relationships with employers and local industries. As we’ve mentioned before, governments around the world face similar challenges with social issues and we are pleased to expand our core service offerings to a promising new geography.
Moving on to new awards in the sales pipeline. At August 3, fiscal year-to-date signed contract wins totaled $1.2 billion, and new contracts pending are those that are awarded but unsigned, totaled $185.8 million. Our pipeline of total sales opportunities is at record levels of $3.4 billion at August 3. Most notably, of the $3.4 billion in total pipeline, we have submitted proposals totaling $1.7 billion of contract value that we are awaiting decision on. The overall sales pipeline represents many growth opportunities across both segments and all geographies. As a reminder, investors should expect routine fluctuations between the pipeline and new sales categories. These shifts are driven by the different stages in the procurement process as well as the timing of when contracts are awarded and ultimately signed.
In closing, I am pleased with our progress on our short term goals to grow the business domestically; the integration of PSI continues to go well. We signed our first health insurance exchange contract and we are on our way to winning our fair share of health care reform work. And we are making very substantial progress gaining more traction in our Federal operations. Internationally, we continue to expand the global footprint of our workforce services operations with a new pilot program in Saudi Arabia and a new population in Australia. And our U.K. contract remains on track to achieve breakeven status before the end of the fiscal year. With increased EPS guidance for the remainder of fiscal 2012, fiscal year 2013 is shaping up to be great year as the results of the full year’s contribution from PSI, our profitable contract in the U.K. and the many domestic and global opportunities on the horizon.
And with that, let’s open it up for questions. Operator?