Gordon M. Stetz
Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets
Thanks, Alan, and good morning, everyone. Given the difficult economic situation that consumers are facing in many of our large markets, we were encouraged by our solid financial performance for the fourth quarter and operating results, which were generally in line with our expectations. In each of our 2 segments, we grew sales at a double-digit rate, with a 13% increase for the total business. Operating income was up 4% net of a 4% headwind from acquisition-related transaction cost, and we delivered earnings per share of $0.98 compared to $0.99 in the fourth quarter of 2010, including the unfavorable impacts of these transaction costs and tax rate. Let's start with top line growth and a look at our consumer business. As seen on Slide 14, we grew consumer business sales 13.5%, with a 12% increase in local currency. In a period of increased pricing, our volumes held up well, and we had a strong contribution from acquisition activity in the fourth quarter of 2011. In the Americas region, we grew consumer business sales 7%. As seen on Slide 15, sales from Kitchen Basics added 3% to growth, and the effect of currency was minimal. Pricing was up 7% this period with the impact of both our December 2010 price increase and the pricing actions that went into effect in the fourth quarter of 2011. Along with these price increases, we had some shift in sales as customers purchased product in advance of the increases. In fact, we were affected by an estimated $10 million shift into the fourth quarter of 2010 from the first quarter of fiscal 2011 and by an estimated $10 million shift into the third quarter of 2011 from the fourth quarter of 2011. So compared to the year ago period, these shifts in customer purchases created a $20 million headwind for us in the fourth quarter of 2011. This had an unfavorable impact of about 4% on consumer sales in the Americas region, a 3% sales impact on the total consumer business and a 2% sales impact on our fourth quarter sales for the total company. In the Americas region, volume and product mix declined 3%, which reflects the 4% unfavorable impact from the shift in sales, offset in part by a 1% increase in the underlying business. We are pleased with this result given the pricing actions implemented in 2011. In Europe, the Middle East and Africa, EMEA, we grew consumer sales 36% with a 32% increase in local currency. Our Kamis acquisition added 26% to sales this quarter, with the remaining increase mainly from pricing. Excluding Kamis, we had a 1% increase in volume and product mix. The primary drivers of growth this period were export sales into developing markets and improved results in some of the smaller markets, such as Portugal. We remain cautious in our business outlook in Western Europe. Our fourth quarter performance was solid in France, with increased pricing only slightly offset by lower volume and product mix. We supported sales of our Ducros and Vahiné brands in this market throughout 2011 with incremental brand marketing support, distribution gains and a number of new product introductions. In the U.K., we continue to operate in a competitive retail environment, where private label share has increased in many categories. We have launched differentiated new products, such as Recipe Inspirations and are delivering enhanced promotional programs to offer value to consumers. We are also redirecting a portion of our brand marketing support to emphasize the value of our products. While these initiatives combined with the merchandising of our brands in store and execution of specific activities are showing encouraging results, we expect our business in the U.K. to continue to be under pressure in 2012. Consumer business sales in the Asia Pacific region rose 36% and in local currency were up 29%, with Kohinoor in India adding 33% to sales this period. Excluding this impact, sales this period were below the fourth quarter of 2010. A change in the timing of customer purchases in China led to a sales shift, which unfavorably impacted the fourth quarter of 2011. For the full year, in local currency, consumer sales in China rose 10%. For the fourth quarter and throughout 2011, our business in Australia has been challenged by a tough retail and competitive environment. Across the entire region, we expect solid growth in our Asia Pacific consumer business in 2012, led by new products, expanded distribution and stepped-up marketing in China along with the incremental sales from Kohinoor. Fourth quarter operating income for our consumer business increased $5 million to $164 million, with the favorable impact of higher sales and CCI cost savings offset in part by increased material cost and $7 million of transaction cost related to the completion of the Kamis and Kohinoor acquisitions. During the quarter, we invested an incremental $9 million behind our brands, with increased advertising behind Thanksgiving in the U.S., Recipe Inspirations in Canada, Vahiné products in France and Grinders in China. $4 million of the increase related to our acquisitions. Let's turn to the sales performance of our industrial business. For this segment, we also grew sales at a double-digit rate. In local currency, the increase was 12%. McCormick continues to drive industrial business sales with product innovation and expanded distribution to support our strategic customers as they grow globally. On Slide 20, industrial sales in the Americas grew 11%, with 6% from pricing and 4% from volume and product mix. We grew sales to food manufacturers at a double-digit rate, with new products that included snack seasonings in both the U.S. and Mexico. Many of these products featured all-natural ingredients, reduced sodium, lower calorie and other healthy attributes for which we continue to see high demand. Sales to the food service industry also rose with the increase due primarily to pricing actions. In EMEA, our industrial business had another quarter of strong sales growth. We grew fourth quarter sales 12% and in local currency, 13% as a result of favorable volume and product mix. We are meeting greater demands from quick service restaurants with products that we supply from operations in the U.K., Turkey and South Africa. In the Asia Pacific region, industrial business sales rose 29% and in local currency, grew 22%. Australia, China and sales in Southeast Asia all achieved strong increases in sales of new products, such as beverage flavors, as well as more basic ingredients, including pepper. For sales to quick service restaurants, we also benefited this period from their promotional activity and expansion in the region. Operating income for the industrial business rose 5% to $28 million. This was a significant improvement from the decline in profit that we reported in the third quarter and due in part to our ability to get price increases in place for many of the smaller ingredients that are not part of the pricing protocol. This profit growth puts our industrial business back on track with a 5-year record of increases in operating income. For the year, industrial operating income was up 4%. In this period of material cost volatility, we are closely managing our pricing actions and cost pass-through protocol. For the total business, fourth quarter operating income rose 4% from the year ago period. This is after the effect of a 4% unfavorable impact from acquisition-related transaction cost. At the gross profit line, we achieved a 7% increase in gross profit dollars with the strong sales performance and CCI cost savings. During the quarter and for the fiscal year, we were able to offset material cost inflation with a combination of pricing actions and CCI cost savings. Gross profit margin ended 2011 at 41.2%, down 130 basis points from 42.5% in 2010. As a percentage of net sales, the positive effects of our pricing actions and CCI cost savings were more than offset by material cost inflation as well as unfavorable segment and product sales mix. Product mix within the industrial business was unfavorable, with increased demand for ingredients as well as weakness in our sales of branded food service items. Segment mix also weighed on gross profit margin with our 2011 sales growth from the industrial business a bit higher than the consumer business. SG&A rose 10% from the fourth quarter of 2011 but as a percentage of sales, was down 80 basis points. This period, SG&A included a $10 million increase in brand marketing support, $9 million for our consumer business and $1 million behind our branded food service products in our industrial business. For the year, we increased marketing by $20 million, with $4 million of the increase in both the fourth quarter and fiscal year related to acquisitions. SG&A this quarter also included the $7 million of transaction cost related to Kamis and Kohinoor. Our mix of earnings during the fourth quarter of 2011 led to a tax rate of 28.7%, which compared favorably to our 31% guidance for the fiscal year. Even at this reduced rate, the fourth quarter 2011 tax rate exceeded the 26.7% tax rate that we had in the fourth quarter of 2010. If you recall, in the year ago period, we had a favorable impact from U.S. foreign tax credits that resulted from the repatriation of cash from foreign subsidiaries. Moving to income from unconsolidated operations. We reported $4.5 million this quarter, down $1.4 million from the fourth quarter of 2010. Results from our joint venture in Mexico were under pressure from higher soybean oil cost and the devaluation of the Mexican peso. While we had incremental profit from our Eastern joint venture in India in the quarter, we also had investment spending behind the [indiscernible] joint venture in Turkey this period. For the full year, sales of our unconsolidated operations rose 32%, with 18% of the increase from our new Eastern joint venture in India and 14% of the increase from existing businesses, particularly our long-standing joint venture in Mexico. Profit from higher sales was offset in part by material cost pressure, currency impact and our initial investments to launch our brand in Turkey. Income from our unconsolidated operations ended 2011 at $25.4 million and accounted for 7% of our reported net income. Early in 2012, we expect the favorable impact of higher sales to be largely offset by unfavorable material cost as well as currency exchange rates. This is likely to cause a decline in income from unconsolidated operations in the first quarter. For the full year, we project income from unconsolidated operations to be about even with 2011. At the bottom line, as shown on Slide 27, fourth quarter 2011 earnings per share was $0.98 compared to $0.99 in the prior year period. Operating income added $0.04, which included $0.05 from acquisition-related transaction cost. This $0.04 increase was offset by a higher tax rate, lower joint venture income and higher interest expense. While we continue to expect 2012 accretion from our latest acquisitions, their profit impact was neutral in the fourth quarter during the integration phase of these businesses. Let's turn next to our year-end balance sheet and 2011 cash flow. We maintained a solid balance sheet in 2011 even with the spike in material cost and a $441 million investment in acquisitions and joint venture interest. Debt at November 30 was $1.3 billion compared to $0.9 billion at the end of fiscal year 2010. We expect to continue our pay down of debt in 2012 as we return to our target debt ratios and prepare for future acquisitions. A portion of our debt was used to finance increased inventory in 2011. As we have discussed throughout the year, much of the increase was due to increased material cost as well as strategic inventory positions we've taken for certain spices and herbs in order to secure a steady supply of high-quality materials for our customers. At year end, inventory was up $136 million, with about 1/3 of the increase due to the cost impact, 1/3 to strategic positions and about 15% related to our acquisitions. In 2012, we anticipate further material cost inflation, but given our current outlook, we expect inventory to level off and begin to decline as we work down a portion of our strategic inventory. In addition, we have seen some early progress with our new inventory management processes in North America and expect this to have further benefits in that region in 2012 before we expand it to other regions. As evidence of our progress, net cash flows from operating activities in the fourth quarter of 2011 exceeded cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2010. For the full year, net cash flows were $340 million in 2011 compared to $388 million in 2010. The increased inventory was the primary reason for this decrease. During the year, we used a combination of cash, debt and proceeds from stock option exercises to fund $441 million of acquisitions, $149 million of dividends, $97 million of capital expenditures and $89 million of share repurchases. In 2012, we expect to further pay down our debt and resume our share repurchases in the absence of any acquisition activity. At November 30, 2011, $270 million remained of our $400 million share repurchase authorization. Let's turn next to our outlook for 2012 on Slide 29. As Alan described, we continue to operate in an uncertain environment, facing further cost inflation and consumers that are under economic pressure in many of our markets. We are responding to this environment with our latest pricing actions and CCI program and have initiatives in place to drive sales with product innovation, brand marketing support, new distribution and our acquisitions. At the top line, we are projecting 9% to 11% sales growth in local currency. We estimate this range will be reduced by 2% based on prevailing foreign exchange rates. Acquisitions will be an important driver of sales growth in 2012, and we expect an incremental impact of 5% to 6% in the first 3 quarters from Kamis, Kohinoor and Kitchen Basics. For the full year, the expected sales increase is 4%. We anticipate sales of our base business to grow 5% to 7%, with a similar increase in both the consumer and industrial segments. We expect our pricing actions to be a large driver of this 5% to 7% increase, with volume and product mix flat to up slightly. While we are seeing an impact on volumes from our latest pricing, we expect to offset this with our new products, brand marketing and distribution expansion activity. Operating income is projected to grow 9% to 11%, driven largely by higher sales. We expect to offset high-single digit cost inflation with our pricing actions and at least $40 million in CCI cost savings. We plan to increase total brand marketing support by at least $10 million with about half of the increase related to the acquisitions. As Alan indicated, this builds upon the $20 million of incremental brand marketing support in 2011. There are 2 more factors to keep in mind as you update your 2012 financial models. First, we recorded $11 million of transaction cost in 2011 related to completion of acquisitions. This will create a favorable variance for us in the second half of the year when comparing 2012 to 2011. The second factor largely offsets this favorable variance and relates to our retirement benefit expense, which is projected to increase $9 million in 2012. This increase is largely a result of the very low discount rate at November 30, 2011, which was used in the actuarial calculation of 2012 expense. Below the operating income line, we expect interest expense to be higher following our 2011 acquisitions, and we project a tax rate of 30%, which compares to 29% in 2011. Although we believe 2012 will be a year of strong sales growth for our joint ventures, as I indicated previously, unconsolidated income is expected to be about even with 2011 as a result of increased material cost and the unfavorable exchange rate of the Mexican peso. At the bottom line, our guidance for 2012 earnings per share is $3.01 to $3.06. We do not typically provide quarterly guidance. However, based on our current outlook, we expect earnings per share of $0.51 to $0.54 in the first quarter. This is down from $0.57 in the year ago period, and there are several factors behind this projection. The first relates to cost inflation. If you look at our first quarter of 2011, gross profit margin increased by 130 basis points. At that time, we were not yet feeling the impact of higher material cost, but this quickly reversed in the second quarter when year-on-year gross profit margin declined 120 basis points. So we have a bit of a tough comparison in the first quarter of 2012 as it relates to gross profit margin, which we expect to be down around 250 basis points, similar to what we reported in the last 2 quarters of 2011. For the balance of the year, we expect gross profit margin to be close to the prior year. The second factor also relates to raw material costs and the effect on our income from unconsolidated operations. As I mentioned earlier, higher costs year-on-year and currency exchange rates are going to cause a decrease in income from unconsolidated operations, which is expected to lower first quarter earnings per share by about $0.02. Third, we plan to increase our brand marketing support in the first quarter by more than $5 million. As a result of these factors, our first quarter is going to be a slower start to 2012, but we expect to resume profit growth beginning with the second quarter. The last part of our 2012 outlook to cover is cash. As indicated earlier, we expect to achieve an increase in net cash flow from operations primarily driven by higher net income and a reduction in inventory. We are planning capital expenditures of $100 million to $110 million, further debt reduction and share repurchases that will result in a slight decline in our shares outstanding. To summarize, our 2012 outlook is for 9% to 11% growth in sales in local currency, a 9% to 11% increase in operating income and a solid EPS result. We are committed to solid execution of our growth initiatives and to achieving these goals. Alan has a few closing remarks, but let's turn next to your questions.