Gordon Stetz
Analyst · Andrew Lazar of Barclays Capital
Thanks, Alan, and good morning, everyone. Today's announcement of our second quarter sales and profit performance demonstrates the strength of our brands and the effectiveness of our CCI program. We are particularly pleased to be delivering year-to-date high performance across most of our operating units. Let's start with a closer look at top line results. There has been a lot of interest in our pricing activities, so let me begin with a few general remarks and then move into a discussion of our 2 segments. In response to higher raw and packaging material costs, we began to implement pricing actions early in fiscal year 2011. In the second quarter, pricing added 3% to our sales growth -- all right, let me correct that, in the first quarter, pricing added 3% to our sales growth. In the second quarter, our pricing actions were more fully in place for our Consumer business, and we continue to pass-through higher costs with increases to industrial customers. As a result, pricing added nearly 5% to second quarter sales. Keep in mind that as we head into the third quarter of 2011, we will begin to lap some significant pricing on pepper that was taken in August 2010. As indicated on Slide 14, in the Americas region, Consumer business sales were up 9%. Our pricing actions accounted for 7% of this increase, and we grew volume and product mix by 2% in the quarter. This increase was led by authentic regional cuisine in the U.S. and dry seasoning mixes and Billy Bee Honey in Canada. Unit sales of Zatarain's branded products rose 16% as a result of distribution gains for frozen products and incremental marketing behind the brand. We grew net sales of Hispanic items in the U.S. at a double-digit pace through our direct store delivery system in Western markets and the campaign Alan described. For many of our other products, we believe the emphasis by certain retailers on private label limited our sales growth during this period. We are responding to this environment by analyzing and adjusting our promotional activities, launching differentiated new products and ensuring we have good distribution of our products, both brand and private label, in all channels. Consumer sales in EMEA increased 10% and in local currency rose 2%. In this region, pricing of 4% was offset in part by a 2% decline in volume and product mix. This was an improvement from a 6% decline in volume and product mix during the first quarter. What we saw in this most recent period were mixed results. Sales of our Ducros and Vahiné brands in France benefited from new product introductions and product distribution. Increases in developing markets related primarily to distribution gains. In the U.K. and the Netherlands, we experienced volume and product mix declines. In these countries, consumers remained under pressure and a competitive retail environment has led to aggressive actions with private label items in many categories. As stated in the first quarter, we are addressing this situation by: first, redirecting a portion of brand marketing support to emphasize the value of our products; second, accelerating new product activity to differentiate from private label; and third, working to improve our in-store merchandising. In the Asia/Pacific region, Consumer business sales rose 23% and in local currency were up 13%. The result this quarter was led by China, where we grew sales, volume and product mix with our efforts to introduce new products and expand distribution geographically and into additional retail channels. This pace of growth in China is on top of a double-digit sales increase in the second quarter of 2010. Operating income for our consumer business was $77 million, a 13% increase from the second quarter of 2010. We achieved this increase largely through higher sales and CCI cost savings. Recall that in the second quarter of 2010, we increased our brand marketing by 18% to support the launch of Recipe Inspirations and Perfect Pinch in the U.S. This year, we maintained nearly the same level of spending with incremental marketing support behind Zatarain’s and Hispanic products in the U.S., as well as social media activity in a number of markets. Let's take a look at the sales performance for our Industrial business by region on Slide 15. In each region, we have taken pricing actions with our industrial customers to pass-through increased material costs, and we expect this pattern to continue for the next 2 quarters. Industrial sales in the Americas grew 9% and in local currency were up 8%, with similar increases in volume and product mix and in pricing. Volume and product mix this period was driven by new products and increased demand by food manufacturers for snack seasonings, cereal flavors and other products. We continue to see a robust pipeline of new products that include simple ingredients, a healthier profile and ethnic flavors. Also in the Americas, sales to the food service industry were comparable to the second quarter of 2010. We have stronger sales to quick-service restaurants that included new products and expanded distribution, but saw some weakness this period in the sale of branded food service items. In EMEA, our Industrial business posted yet another quarter of strong sales growth. We grew second quarter sales 13% and in local currency, 7%. Volume and product mix drove this increase, as well as our pricing actions. Demand from quick-service restaurants continues to be the key sales driver in this region. We saw particular strength in the sales of products that we manufacture in our facilities in Turkey and South Africa. In fact, we just increased production capacity in our consolidated industrial joint venture in Turkey by 26%. In the Asia/Pacific region, Industrial business sales rose 21% and in local currency, 12%. This increase builds on a 13% increase in the second quarter of 2010. It is also a sequential turnaround from the first quarter of 2011 when sales were affected by the emphasis on certain menu items by our quick-service restaurant customers. This quarter, we benefited from some new products for these customers, along with support for their business-building activity in India. Across all regions, operating income for our Industrial business rose 10% from the year-ago period to $32 million in the second quarter of 2011. This increase was driven by higher sales and CCI cost savings. We were able to improve our operating profit margin through CCI and a shift in mix toward more value-added products, achieving 8.4% in the second quarter. We were pleased with this improvement, given the downward pressure on margins that is created by our pricing protocol in an inflationary environment in which we adjust prices dollar-per-dollar to reflect changes in material costs. For the total business, second quarter operating income rose 12% from the year-ago period, following a 12% increase in the first quarter. Operating income margin was up slightly from last year at 12.4%. Gross profit margin on the other hand was down 120 basis points. This was a reversal from 130 basis point increase in the first quarter. Heading into the first quarter, we had some lower cost inventory in the system and didn't experience the full effect of higher material costs. By the second quarter, a greater impact of higher material and packaging costs had worked their way into our cost of goods sold. We succeeded in offsetting the dollar impact of higher costs with our pricing actions and CCI cost savings. However, the net effect of these factors caused gross profit, as a percent of net sales, to decline in the second quarter. McCormick employees are achieving excellent results with CCI, and we have increased our projected cost savings for 2011. However, material costs continue to escalate. From our initial cost inflation estimate of 7% to 8% for the year, we are seeing further increases into the second half of our fiscal year. While we expect pricing actions and CCI cost savings to continue to offset the dollar impact of higher costs, we also expect a decline in gross profit margin to continue into the second half. SG&A rose 5% from the second quarter of 2010, but as a percentage of sales, was down 140 basis points. The tax rate was in line with our guidance at 31.1%, up slightly from 30.2% in the year-ago period. Keep in mind that for the next 2 quarters of 2011, we will be comparing to a third and fourth quarter in 2010 that both had very favorable tax rates. As projected, income from unconsolidated operations was down slightly in the quarter. The primary reason for the decline was the impact of higher soybean oil on our joint venture in Mexico, where mayonnaise is a leading item. The fundamentals of our joint venture's performance remain solid, including aggregate sales growth of 24%, of which about half is due to the incremental impact of Eastern condiments in India, which is performing right on plan and half from increases across our other joint ventures. At the bottom line, as shown on Slide 17, earnings per share was $0.55 compared to $0.49 in the second quarter of the prior year. This $0.06 increase came from higher operating income. I'd like to turn next to the balance sheet and cash flow. During the quarter, we spent $39 million to repurchase 807,000 shares at an average cost of $48.32. At the end of May, $270 million remained on our $400 million share repurchase authorization. In mid-May, we curtailed our share repurchase activity in anticipation of our acquisition activities. We expect to use a combination of cash and debt to finance our recently announced transactions. Net cash flow from operations was $36 million for the first 6 months of 2011. This is down from $65 million in the year-ago period. Net increase -- net income has increased in 2011, and we have improved our receivables collections. However, as we saw in the first quarter, inventory has increased since our 2010 fiscal year end. This increase is driven in part by higher material costs, currency impact and inventory positions. The higher cost of raw and packaging materials mean that the inventory we hold also has a higher cost, which accounted for about one quarter of the increase versus the year-ago inventory balance. The impact of currency added another 20% of increase. And as we mentioned last quarter, in response to world events and potential supply issues, we are currently holding certain positions of spices and herbs to assure a steady supply of high-quality products for our customers. This accounts for more than half of the remaining increase. In the face of these increases, we are very focused on lowering our inventory levels. One initiative currently underway is the implementation of new inventory management processes in North America. Once we fully implement this system and begin to drive reductions in our inventory in North America, we will turn our attention to implementing those new processes in other parts of our business. Given our current inventory level, the continuing cost pressure and the importance of holding strategic inventory in this environment, we are not likely to reach the goal set in April 2010, which is to reduce our cash conversion cycle by 10 days by 2012. We achieved the reduction of 3 days in 2010, but do not expect to see further progress in 2011. Be assured that activity to improve our working capital continues. We remain committed to improving our cash conversion cycle, and we'll revise the goal once we have better visibility in this volatile cost environment. I'm going to wrap up our remarks with our latest financial outlook for 2011. During my review of McCormick's second quarter results, I provided some comments about certain aspects of our projections for the balance sheet of -- balance of the year as they relate to our existing business. Let me summarize this outlook and then incorporate the impact of the 2 transactions that Alan discussed. We are including them in our guidance at this time, because we have a high degree of confidence they will be completed later this quarter, most likely by the end of the third quarter. So on Slide 19, starting with our base business, we are reaffirming expected sales growth of 5% to 7% in local currency. Although at this point in the year, we are seeing more of a shift toward pricing within this range. Another 1% of growth is expected in incremental sales, with 3 months of the Kohinoor and Kamis businesses. This takes our sales growth outlook in local currency to 6% to 8%. Based on prevailing currency exchange rates, the impact of foreign currency is now expected to add 2% to sales, up from our earlier estimate of 1%. Turning to earnings per share on Slide 20, we began the year with a $2.80 to $2.85 range. We are reaffirming this range for our base business. This may seem overly conservative given the double-digit increases achieved in each of the first 2 quarters. However, we remain cautious about the impact of the global economy on our consumers and on our retail and industrial customers. In addition, as I stated earlier, we are facing further increases in material costs. While we do not typically comment on specific quarters, I have a few quick remarks on the third and fourth quarters of 2011 and ask that you keep in mind for any financial projections. As I mentioned earlier, we had some significant tax rate variances that boosted earnings per share in both the third and fourth quarters of 2010. In the third quarter of 2010, we recorded the reversal of a significant tax accrual, which increased GAAP EPS by $0.10 to $0.76 but was excluded from our adjusted EPS of $0.66. In the fourth quarter of 2010, a favorable tax rate added $0.09, which was included in EPS of $0.99. Another thing I'd like to point out, based on our marketing plans for the third quarter of 2011, we expect to increase brand spending by at least $6 million as we continue our Hispanic campaign, add incremental support for Zatarain’s and emphasize a brand value message to consumers. Now to update our 2011 earnings per share for the anticipated impact of the 2 transactions. We expect to report approximately $9 million in acquisition-related costs related to Kohinoor and Kamis, which will lower 2011 EPS by $0.06 to $2.74 to $2.79. As for the timing of these acquisition-related costs, $2 million was recorded in SG&A in the second quarter, which lowered EPS by $0.01. We expect to complete these transactions in the next few months and record the remaining $7 million in the third quarter, which is projected to lower EPS that quarter by $0.05. Any fourth quarter impact for profit from these businesses should be minimal due to initial integration costs and planned investment spending. For fiscal year 2012, both businesses are expected to be accretive, adding an estimated $0.07 to $0.09 to EPS. While we plan to call out the acquisition-related costs in our guidance and will highlight them in our financial results, we do not plan to report them as non-GAAP expense, as we view these types of acquisitions and joint ventures as an integral part of our strategy. I hope that my remarks in the previous press releases that we have provided the information you need as you evaluate these transactions and our latest outlook. Joyce is available after our call should you need help with additional details. On Slide 21, we have summarized our latest guidance, which includes the sales growth and earnings per share, along with CCI savings of at least $45 million. We continue to expect a decline in gross profit margin and an increase in our marketing expense that is in line with sales, even at the higher growth rate. Our outstanding shares are likely to be flat rather than down 1% as we have curtailed repurchases pending cash outlays for the new acquisition and joint venture. Let me summarize. This is an exciting time for McCormick. We have delivered excellent financial results for the first half of the year, results that are in line with or ahead of our goals for 2011. Following double-digit profit growth in the first half, our outlook for the full year is tempered a bit by the current economic and input cost environment. But we fully expect our new products, upcoming brand marketing and latest distribution wins to maintain momentum for our business and lead to a solid second half performance. Accelerating this momentum as we head into 2012 are some excellent additions to our global portfolio of leading brands. We look forward to completing these agreements and moving forward with the integration and growth of these businesses. Thank you for your attention. And operator, let's take the first question.