Selim Bassoul
Analyst · Joel Tiss from BMO
Joel, let me take you through and give you some perspective. So from a data standpoint, you're right that, basically, fast casual has had a slowdown, which is our main dominant player. So we've been a dominant player in fast casual, and the fast casual has slowed down. So if you look at sales of fast casual, the sales -- the foodservice sales of fast casual, it has gone down to around 4%, and that's economic data. So if you look at that, it used to be in the 6% to 7%. So fast casual has slowed down, especially in the U.S. It's not definitely at 1.5% to 2%, which is what casual dining is. However, let's go back and take a bigger picture, since you've asked to look at the next three years. I'm not going to look at the next five years. I'm going to look at this and say that the global restaurant sector continues to be attractive, with high growth potential in several markets. So if you look at the restaurant market size and the size of the bubbles, it's still a strong consumer spend per meal is taking place in the U.S. will continue. And you're going to start seeing the other markets continues to go even more aggressively. So if I look at the chains, the chains are accelerating expansion efforts in new market to capture that growth. So let's talk about the markets a little bit more in specific. So if I look at the markets globally and where we spent the last 20 years, spending time in looking at the growth per market where we've invested heavily in massive investments starting in 1999, specifically when we opened China. While we opened Philippines in 1996; we opened China in 1999; India in 2003. So if you look at the markets, China, India, Mexico, Brazil, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Australia, South Korea, we get into Europe and to UK, which are the biggest markets in terms of annual sales growth. We are very well-positioned there. And we'll continue seeing double-digit growth coming from our international market as we see those markets growing significantly. We've made heavily investment in them, and we'll continue looking at our infrastructure and our logistical service in those markets. So where does it take us from here? So as I continue looking at the segment in general, having been at it, I think one of the longest executives in this business. Yes, the segment has always had, what I call, not a roller coaster effect, but I would say a 5-year trend effect where our customer trying to reinvent themselves and go at it. So today, they are having to face, around the world, a younger consumer base that today have different eating habits or the way they order. So from that perspective, the only thing that's great for us is that younger consumer prefer chains, and we are dominant in the chain business. On the other side, as we basically move forward in the next three years, consumer expect to spend more of our -- in dining out than they did in the past 12 months. So if I look at it, there would be the data, and that's coming from AlixPartners, that talks about, literally, consumer expecting in the next 12 months to 24 months to dine out even more significantly as we move forward. Year-to-year, the percent of consumer intending to dine out has basically continues to go up. And that's continuing throughout, literally, many countries outside the U.S. Now let's basically dissect that. Diners are planning to exceed spending on eating out on meals that are less than $5 and on meals that are greater than $30. So now, if you're stuck between $5 per ticket and $30, you have a problem, which brings a lot of solutions. How do you get back to delivering either a value that gets you where the ticket -- the meal ticket is over $30 or to go back to a $5 meal ticket, which is where fast casual is stuck. So they need to figure out a value proposition to get them to this $5 to $6 meal ticket for lunch. So as I look at this, I'm very optimistic about the segment and our sector, our industry. Now from time-to-time you're going to have a competitor, discounting and stealing one business here and stealing one business here. But I'm talking macro. In general, I'm looking at where we see the industry. Having seen it over the last 20 years, I don't think that I'm looking today and panicking about this industry. I think the industry is stable. It's going to continue growing. And globally, I think that you will have some challenges that has to be met by equipment provider like us, such as labor shortage and labor cost. Food quality can only be attained by a good piece of equipment as well as ingredients. But the food cost can be attained by making sure that the kitchen is relevant. You're not overstaffing the kitchen; you're automating the process so the food quality is consistent. So when you test a product in your lab, if you are a chain, and it goes back and you have 1,000 stores, you have to make sure that, that food quality is consistent in the all 1,000 stores. And that can only be accomplished by equipment and training, but mostly making sure the equipment is reliable, it's easy, it's simple and it's not so smart that operators cannot run the equipment. So from that perspective, I'm very confident that the segment, I'm not talking about -- I'm talking about all of us is going to be lifted in the next five years.