Earnings Labs

Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 24, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Kathy, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Mohawk Industries Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference is being recorded, today, February 24, 2012. Thank you. I would now like to introduce Jeff Lorberbaum, Chairman and CEO. Mr. Lorberbaum, you may begin your conference.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you for joining our fourth quarter 2011 conference call. Joining me on this call is Frank Boykin, our CFO, who'll review our Safe Harbor statement and later our financial results.

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst

I would like to remind everyone that our press release and statements we make on this call may include forward-looking statements, as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which are subject to various risk and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, those set forth in our press release and our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call may include a discussion of non-GAAP numbers. You can refer to our Form 8-K and press release at the Investor Information section of our website for a reconciliation of any non-GAAP to GAAP amounts.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Thank you, Frank. Our fourth quarter earnings per share were $0.62 as reported or $0.72 excluding unusual items, an increase of 9% over 2010. Volume and price increases, as well as cost reductions, contributed to our earnings improvement over last year. Sales grew by 9% as reported or 10% on a local basis with all segments showing sales growth over the last 3 quarters. Price increases across many product categories are being implemented in the first quarter to offset higher costs. Excluding unusual items, we reduced SG&A to 18.9% of sales, holding spending flat with last year by overcoming inflation and specific growth investments. Our leverage is at historically low levels with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2x, and we have liquidity of more than $900 million available to redeem our 2012 bonds and provide flexibility for future opportunities. In the U.S., both our residential and commercial categories expanded, but the commercial category continued to expand at a faster rate than residential. Builder sentiment rose in January for the fourth consecutive month. In 2012, forecasts for existing home sales expect growth of 5% and for new home starts improving about 15%. The trend has been improving for both U.S. consumer confidence and employment. Our long-term outlook supports a rebound from the present low level -- sales levels experienced by the flooring industry with future growth projected to outpace the overall economy. Frank, would you give the financial report, please?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst

Sure. Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. We ended the fourth quarter with net sales of $1.378 billion, 9% up over last year. Sales increased in all segments with both residential and commercial gaining over last year. Our gross margin as a percent of sales was 24.3%, down from last year's 27.1%. Raw material inflation impacted us during the quarter, with price increases that were going to be implemented in the first quarter of 2012 to offset the inflation. SG&A was $269 million or 19.5% of sales as reported. It included noncash charges for an estimated change -- included noncash charges for an estimated change in lease accounting and restructuring activities. Excluding the charges, the fourth quarter SG&A improved by 140 basis points over last year. Our team did an excellent job of managing SG&A. Our full year dollars were actually flat with last year. We were able to offset inflation with productivity improvements. Our emphasis on cost control continues to benefit the business. Charges included $8 million for restructuring and $6 million for a lease accounting change. Dal-Tile results included $3 million of the charges with the balance going into the Mohawk segment. $5 million of the charges were included in cost of goods sold and the remaining $9 million in SG&A. Our operating margin excluding charges was 5.8% compared to 6.9% last year. Interest expense was $24 million, an improvement over last year's $30 million. We had better rates and a new bank facility that resulted in a lower interest expense. We're estimating our 2012 interest expense to be approximately $90 million. Income tax rate excluding charges was 9% during the quarter. We're estimating our full year rate in 2012 to be 20%. Earnings per share excluding charges were $0.72 compared to $0.66 last year, representing a…

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Thank you, Frank. Our Mohawk segment sales grew by more than 8% with both residential and commercial channels showing improvement. Operating margins were compressed by higher raw material costs and the delay of our price increase until the first quarter of 2012. A price increase of 5% to 7% is presently being implemented and will partially offset material inflation in the first quarter. We continue to lower our manufacturing cost with improved productivity and reduce our infrastructure with efficiency improvements and restructuring activities. In our Residential business, we introduced 2 brand extensions in our exclusive SmartStrand product category. SmartStrand Ultra is a unique brand for the specialty retail channel with a collection of new soft stylized products with enhanced warranty that complement their value position. We also introduced the next generation of soft carpets, with our new collection called SmartStrand Silk. No other carpet compares to SmartStrand Silk's soft feel, performance and environmental position. SmartStrand Silk is being enthusiastically received by the market and will begin shipping in the first quarter. Our EverStrand and Wear-Dated Revive polyester products grew significantly, driven by fashionable products, excellent value and industry-leading recycled content. The expansion of our polyester collections with new styles and price points are being well accepted by our customers. We're integrating our premium carpet cushion into our carpet-selling systems to enhance the mix and margins of our customers. Sales of our Mohawk hard surface products grew with engineered hardwood showing the greatest gains, particularly our domestic, exotic and distressed surfaces. We also launched a new line of luxury vinyl tile with our patented Uniclic technology for easier installation. A 2% to 6% price increase for our vinyl products is being implemented this month. Commercial sales posted strong year-over-year gains for the sixth consecutive quarter with both broadloom and carpet tile…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan. Michael Rehaut - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: The first question I had was on the top line expectations. You'd said in the release that you expect growth in the first quarter but to a lesser rate than the fourth quarter due to easier comparisons you had in the fourth quarter. I was interested if that kind of slower growth rate you expect to be uniform across all 3 segments or with the initiatives that you're having, for example, with the Home Centers with the laminate and wood if Unilin could maybe benefit from that, or if there's any type of company-specific trends that might allow one segment to maybe do a little better than another. And I guess, that question is also more broadly for 2012.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

We typically don't get into the exact details of each of the segments in the 4 pieces. I can tell you that for the -- if you look at the full year 2011 growth, we expect those trends to continue going on into 2012. And what happened in '11 though, we had, in the second half, the comparisons were a little easier so they’ll be a little different in '12. But we think that the present trends we're seeing will continue in all the different categories. Michael Rehaut - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. I guess the second question is on the margin side. With Unilin kind of lower than where it's been in the last previous few years, and I think you guys have talked about some of it being a negative mix. I guess going forward, over the next 2 or 3 years, I mean, should we expect a 9% to 10% type of level as the new normal? And also if you could give us any thoughts around the royalty situation, if that should change the profitability of the unit over the next year or 2?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst

Where to start with that one? The margins in the Unilin segment are depressed as the whole market has gone through a downturn. The market continues to remain difficult, so the margins have been compressed. We see the market remain difficult in the period. As we look forward into next year, we see slowing of the European economy in general. The compression, I guess, relates back to -- in Europe there's more excess capacity in the marketplace as the economy really hasn’t -- in the building segment, things haven't bounced back yet, and there are still customers trading down. What’s happened to ours in the short-term is that our portfolio growth has been more in the non-laminate products, and that growth is that -- and the non-laminate products don't have the same margins as our differentiated laminate products. If you look over the long term, we expect the margins to improve as we come out of this thing going forward. But I think that they'll probably be in the mid-teens rather than we're up in the 18% range -- 16% to 18%, probably be in the 14% to 15% when we come out of this thing.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of David Goldberg with UBS.

Susan Maklari - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS.

It's actually Susan for David. It sounds like as we go through 2012, you’re focusing more in terms of new products and expansion and those kinds of efforts versus taking cost out of the business. Is that -- should we expect that you're primarily done with a lot of your restructuring and that most of that is sort of behind us as we go through the year?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst · UBS.

We've done a lot of restructuring in all the businesses. We don't have any planned at this point. But I have to tell you, we're always looking to better position the business, if we identify opportunities to do that that we'll do it. We will take short-term charges and implement those as we go forward. If I left you the impression we're through with cost reductions, I made a big error. It is on top of the list of each of the divisions. It's pushed down through the pieces. We have developed over the last few years really good systems of identifying potential opportunities. They are all aligned by business, by -- all the way down to the department levels. There are monthly reviews of those pieces, and we're driving them hard.

Susan Maklari - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS.

Okay. I just meant more in terms of the bigger trends that we're seeing. And then can you just give us -- has there been any change in what you're seeing in terms of maybe M&A opportunities? Are you seeing more attractive things come up as perhaps the market stabilizes a bit?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst · UBS.

There are some conversations going on. As is typical when you're in these points in time, you're sort of at an inflection point where the sellers of businesses believe that they want to get paid for the future improvements, and the buyers want to pay for what the business is presently doing. So in those times, we're in a time where there probably be more acquisitions going on in the marketplace over the next year, but we have to move through those where they profit the line with expectations on both sides.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of David MacGregor with Longbow Research.

Jarrod Rapalje - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research.

It's actually Jarrod Rapalje filling in for David. My first question is on margins. You listed a lot of start-up expenses that are expected to weigh on margins by segment. Can you just talk about where you expect to see the brunt of this affect margins, maybe some quantification about how much of an impact you can see? I know you're just talking about raw material inflation being neutral starting in 2Q. Can -- so what kind of pressure can we expect to see from the start-up costs?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst · Longbow Research.

In the fourth quarter, there was about $3 million of start-up costs. I don't have it by the quarter. For next year, it's probably going to be an additional $8 million to $10 million with most of it front-end loaded in the first half.

Jarrod Rapalje - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research.

Okay. And is that -- can you talk about where most of that is going to be seen by segment?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst · Longbow Research.

Most of it is going to be in the Dal-Tile, in Unilin businesses. The Dal-Tile is starting up the Mexican plant and the Unilin putting more investments in the Russian plant getting it off the ground. And then there's a lot of smaller things across all the businesses.

Jarrod Rapalje - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research.

Okay. With the Mexican plant, you mentioned it's going to be up and running by next -- by April. What -- how quickly or how much of a bump can we expect to see from that? And in terms of profitability, how quickly will it be accretive to the P&L?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst · Longbow Research.

The capacity put in Mexico, the average selling price of the material is about half of what it is in the U.S. because of the different materials, as well as we don't have the same distribution margin in it as well. The plant, as it's set up, will probably have a capacity for around $50 million of additional sales when it starts up. It can be significantly expanded from that point. It should impact the margins when it gets running sometimes towards the end of the year. We expect the cost to come down. And as we move to production from our either northern plant, which we're actually shipping higher-cost products at lower prices getting prepared for that, and as we bring other products in, it should impact positively the margins in Mexico a few percentage points.

Jarrod Rapalje - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research.

Okay. If I can sneak one last one in there, within Mohawk this quarter, with -- can you break out the volumes of Residential and Commercial and tell us what you're seeing in the Commercial business? If you -- any slowdown over the last several months?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst · Longbow Research.

We'll break out the specific pieces, the -- I think in last year, the commercial carpet grew as an industry somewhere at about 7%. Part of that is driven by a shift to higher-priced tiles, so that's actually growing -- the dollars are growing faster than the units in the whole industry. As we look at the Residential business in our thing, we see the industry as a total, we think, is probably flat to off slightly but improving. Our view going forward in '12 is that the residential piece is going to continue strengthening with the employment and the economy, and we really expect the Renovation and Building businesses to improve, what’s built into our own forecast.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Dan Oppenheim with Crédit Suisse. Daniel Oppenheim - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: I was wondering if -- because you're talking there about the switch to some higher-priced tile. Within all the segments really, are you seeing much of a -- any of a positive mix shift occurring? Over the past couple of years, there was definitely a shift towards more commoditized lower-priced items. Are you seeing anything of that and any thoughts in terms of a positive impact on margins from that?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

We're not seeing a significant change at this point. We believe it's bottomed out. And we're optimistic about it improving with the economy, but I can't say we’ve really seen it yet. Daniel Oppenheim - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Okay. And then a second question, I'm just wondering when we think within the Mohawk segment, what do you think about the ability to push for further price increases if needed, given input costs and such, after sort of seeing some challenges with pricing last fall? How do you look at that if there's a need for further price increases?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

We have -- in the last years, we've gone through significant inflation in the carpet industry. We have been able to pass it through. What you saw last year was not that we weren't able to pass it through, is that the timing was moved 1 month or 2, which is not exactly the same thing. I see no reason why if the raw materials go up that we won't pass them through because they're such a high percentage of the total cost when they go up.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Dennis McGill with Zelman & Associates. Dennis McGill - Zelman & Associates, Research Division: I guess my first question is similar to the pricing announcements. I think within the Mohawk segment, I believe the announcements you made last year will get you to a double-digit type increase, but the realized price adjusted for mix is somewhere in the low-single digits. So I was just hoping to square those 2 if you could talk about how much of the drag was mix, what the effective pricing really was and anything else that's maybe causing a diversion from that timing or something else?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

There's a lot of moving pieces. So first, you have the price increases that went in. I don't have it in front of me the average pricing went up. But what happened is not only you're having those go up, you have a change in mix from nylon to polyester. So there was a mix change so you bought similar value products out of lower raw materials. There's a dramatic shift going on in that, offsetting some of the price increase that's going on. In addition to that, you have the consumer trading down from our higher-priced products to a lower one, so what you -- the realization to the price in total is different. I don't have that by segment. If you look over the whole business, I would guess that about 4% of the total was price increase across all the various businesses -- of the total dollar increase, about 4% of it is pricing across all the various businesses. Dennis McGill - Zelman & Associates, Research Division: Would you expect that the Mohawk business was above that average?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst

I don't really know because -- it was probably a little bit, but I don't know for sure because of that -- the mix change was so dramatic. Dennis McGill - Zelman & Associates, Research Division: Okay, got it. Separately, you touched on this a little bit, but just curious on your thoughts as best as you can quantify it, share across the different segments what you think you did plus or minus in 2011? And then as you move into next year, it sounds like the share gains are most pronounced in the Dal-Tile and Unilin business, but any other expectations that you'd have for share growth?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst

In most of the businesses, we don't have specific numbers to get them at this point. The industry numbers aren't available in most of the different pieces. I think that in the Mohawk segment, we turned a corner, and I think that we did slightly better than the industry. We put a lot of things in place to improve our share over the past year through enhancing our sales team, expanding our polyester and SmartStrand offering, improving our commercial offering on those. In the Dal-Tile business, we keep expanding our presence and broadening our product line in the United States. The commercial business has improved in the U.S., and we have a large -- a larger share of the commercial business and the residential business in the Dal-Tile business. I think we're set up to grow faster than the industry as it picks up. The Unilin business has a lot of different parts in it. I think that our laminate business we improved share in, but we're in a lot of businesses in Europe that are highly depressed. And I don't know exactly when they're going to come out.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Stephen Kim with Barclays Capital.

John Coyle

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

It’s actually John Coyle filling in for Stephen. Just want to try and understand the nature of the homebuilder relationship. Do you guys have an idea like what your share is with the top 20 builders, how the relationship would work between you guys and a builder? Is it exclusive, or does it vary regionally? And then if you can maybe quantify your leverage to new single-family starts?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Yes, we do have the information. No, I don't have the information. We track all of the major builders in each of the different relationships we have. The major builders we have multiple ways of getting to them depending upon how they want to do business. Some of the builders have specifications that they specify the products to it. Some have national specifications. Some have regional specifications. Some buy through contractors that they make arrangements for. Some control the purchases that the contractor provides them. Some of the contractor provides them, so we develop relationships with the various contractors within it. And there's -- then you get to the smaller ones, there's then 100 other ways to do business. So there's all types of ways. I think that we have good relationships with most of them. We're doing things to increase the specifications in all of our businesses with them. I think we're well-positioned in the marketplace, and we'll continue to do things to try to maximize our share. When we look at it this year, it's going to improve. We're guessing about 15% or so. So 15% of a relatively low level versus historical, and we hope to participate more than our share of it.

John Coyle

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Got it. Then just in the event of a -- sorry, of an increase in volume, just trying to get a -- just trying to get an idea of the margin leverage across the various businesses. Could you maybe talk about them in order of magnitude, how you look at each division on like an incremental-margin basis?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Yes, at the operating margin level, I think we're looking at the Mohawk division at maybe 15% incremental margin. And then Unilin or rather Dal-Tile at about 25%, and Unilin at about 30%.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Bob Wetenhall with RBC.

Steven Bachman - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC.

This is Steven Bachman in for Bob. Given the increasing confidence for both builders and investors over the past couple of months, I mean, has anything specifically changed in the broader market to give you guys confidence that the price increases can be successfully implemented versus a couple of months ago?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst · RBC.

I mean, the price increases for the most part are well being executed already. So it's not like we don't know where they are. They're going through the marketplace and being implemented as we speak. We understand the competitive market at this point, and they're basically in place moving forward.

Steven Bachman - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC.

I guess as a clarification, is there something that has changed that you think is the reason why they're going through? Or is it just kind of this is the way the market works?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst · RBC.

I don't see anything unusual about it. This is the way it works.

Steven Bachman - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC.

Make sense. And as a follow-up, can you give an overview of how much of some of your key raw materials have increased on like a percentage basis over the fourth quarter, be it propylene or something else? And if there's any incremental view on the extent to which they're rising in the first quarter?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst · RBC.

On specific items you're asking?

Steven Bachman - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC.

Yes, like propylene, for example.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst · RBC.

I don't have those in front of me, but there are charts that show market prices of them that are readily available. What happened in last fall, the polypropylene were high. They took a dip, and then they came back up where they are. The prices going forward, they're anybody's guess. They're driven by oil prices on one side, their chemical capacity on the other and worldwide demand, and they can be going opposite directions. So far my forecasts, I mean, they're not worth the paper they're written on 3 to 6 months from now.

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst · RBC.

But we do believe our current price increase that we've got in place that we're implementing now is going to cover any present raw material cost. And as Jeff said earlier, we'll adjust further as we need.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from John Baugh with Stifel, Nicolaus. John A. Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: I was wondering if we could look at raw materials in calendar '11 in full. And you mentioned, I think, that you estimated 4% pricing for the year. What would raw materials have been? And what I'm trying to get at is, you keep talking about catching up with the prices that you're going to implement now. I'm wondering sort of what the dollar spread was between how much raws went up in 2011 across all of your businesses versus how much your prices went up.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

We don't have the exact numbers. The raw materials in total across all the different businesses probably went up approaching $200 million across the various businesses. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me. And what happened is that we passed through a lot of it. On the other hand, a lot of the productivity and improvements we made went -- offset that, which is why the margins didn't jump dramatically. John A. Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: So -- but if that were true, I mean, you did, what, $5.16 billion in revenue, and you said 4% of that was maybe pricing.

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst

And mix, John. We can't separate those 2. So mix is a negative in that equation, right? John A. Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Okay, okay. And not in terms of what's going to flow through your P&L here in the first quarter because I anticipate there's still margin pressure there, but what's happening right now with the key raw materials on the spot market, if you will? We’ve seen oil move dramatically here. Has there been a recent spike in any of those or not?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

There's not enough time past to see the impact of that, and we're still waiting to understand it. And what the erratic part of it is, it's hard to tell what it's going to be a month from now. John A. Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: And my final question would be on Unilin. If we were somehow able to separate off just the European Laminate business, Jeff, has the margin there pretty much held up? Have the volumes pretty much held up? I understand all the Board issues and other things, where it sounds like it's pretty depressed.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

In Europe, you have the same thing that's going on here is that there's been trading down of the quality of the products. So that as you traded down, some of the margins were compressed with the trading down. We've been able, through the expansion of our distribution into the DIY channel, that our product to, we think, do better than the marketplace. And volume -- on the other side, we think our margins are much higher than the rest because we have no commodity business in the -- in that business where there's other participants that have huge commodity businesses.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sam Darkatsh with Raymond James. Sam Darkatsh - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: A couple of questions here that are left. Specifically, related to Dal-Tile pricing, I know historically that it's been difficult to get pricing in ceramic tile because of all the input pricing pressure. Do you anticipate there being issues with this particular price increase? Are the importers seeing the same inflation in the opacifiers that you folks are seeing? What's the sense of the ability to jam that one through?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

I can't speak for all the importers. I can tell you that we're seeing it in Mexico, in China and the U.S. So the raw materials in every market I’ve seen are going up. They have the same suppliers across the world. So all markets are having those. The other part is that you got to keep remembering in Ceramic is that a large part of the costs are moving it to the destination in transportation, and I don't care where you buy it from. It goes up. Sam Darkatsh - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: Okay. And last question then, you're talking about your liquidity being $900 million, and you have the bonds coming due. I guess that leaves about $600 million-or-so in free liquidity to make an acquisition if need be. But there's more than half of that would be, I'm guessing, tied up in Europe. So does that mean that if you were to make a deal that you would lean more towards looking in the European theater for acquisitions because that's where the cash is tied up?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

We are looking for places to use the cash in Europe, but you're assuming that I don't have any other options to raise capital, which I don't think is correct.

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst

And let me just clarify, the money that is outside of the U.S., we can use it anywhere outside of the U.S., not necessarily just in Europe and not have tax consequences.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Keith Hughes with SunTrust.

Keith B. Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · SunTrust.

As you look at the organic growth, I believe you had different days in the fourth quarter of 2010. Is there an adjustment we need to make to that to get to the, kind of, core number?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst · SunTrust.

The days in 2010 and 2011 fourth quarter, Keith, were about the same in those 2.

Keith B. Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · SunTrust.

Okay. And if we look specifically in the U.S. carpet market at the big surge in polyester product. I guess have we seen that peak in the last couple quarters? Is it still continuing? What's your view there, Jeff?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst · SunTrust.

We think the trend's continuing, and it's going to continue. Polyester products are being able to be put in a broader selection of products. The customers are looking how to provide the most value to their consumers. They're trying to offset the price inflation of the raw materials, so we believe that polyester will continue growing, which is one of the reasons we invested almost $100 million in expanding our extrusion capacity to support it and our SmartStrand. The 2 things are different. The SmartStrand is going into higher-value products, and we really believe that we have a huge opportunity in the high end with the new silk products we're introducing. There is -- there are 2 trends in the marketplace. One is cheaper products in polyester, and the other is softness. And our silk products are a dramatic step change for the marketplace.

Keith B. Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst · SunTrust.

When we get a stronger economy, most likely, the mix will go back to the other direction back to the high end of the market. It appears you have a lot more competitors at the low end, particularly in polyester, one particular new entrant. When we go back to a shift to the high end, will that be a sheer gain opportunity for Mohawk?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst · SunTrust.

I mean, we always try to improve our position in all the pieces. We participate in all the parts in the marketplace. I think that as it shifts -- it's going to shift back because nobody wakes up in the morning and says they want the cheapest thing in their homes. They all aspire to have better. And there's been a compression through the entire channel about the retailer trying to present a value to the customer to get a bigger share and the suppliers trying to meet those needs, so that compression has made it much worse. At some point, it's going to turn, and we think we're positioned to participate in both.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Alex Cook [ph] with Voyant Advisors [ph].

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

What percentage of the increase in inventory related to raw material concentration and what percentage related to inventory quantities?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst

The raw material inflation was about $26 million. But -- I'm sorry, $44 million. But we also, as I mentioned, we bought ahead. We make -- we strategically increased our carpet raw material inventories about $26 million to get ahead of some cost increases.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

And that's on a year-over-year basis?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst

Yes.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And then you guys mentioned a change in lease accounting, but in the earnings release, you guys called it a correction of an immaterial error. So was this a change in lease accounting, or was it an actual error?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst

It's a -- let me just kind of go through that for you. It's -- first, to make it clear, there's no cash impact on us. The accounting rules here require that uneven lease payments be expensed on a straight-line basis. And we were previously estimating the amount. We put in a new lease accounting system that gave us a more precise number, and that's what we're recording now so it's a true-up to get us to a more precise number.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And then one last question. You'd mentioned that there would likely be restructuring charges in FY '12. I was wondering if you could quantify what the restructuring charges would be in Q1 and in FY '12?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

What I said was there was no restructuring at this point and that we're always looking to better position the business. And if we find things we could do, we would do them.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Eric Bosshard with Cleveland Research.

Tom Mahoney

Analyst · Cleveland Research.

This is Tom Mahoney calling in for Eric today. Just quickly, what are you guys seeing in January and February versus the 10% organic number in the fourth quarter?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst · Cleveland Research.

We're seeing continued trends at the sales level. What we said was that the second half of last year and the fourth quarter in particular had easier comparisons because the prior year, the volume went up in the first half and was under pressure in the second half. From there, we said as we look forward into this year, we think that the overall growth for 2011 will continue into there, noting that the comparisons will be a little more difficult though.

Tom Mahoney

Analyst · Cleveland Research.

Okay. And then what's the best way to think about the 1Q comparison because if you take out the calendar impact from 4Q, sales were up 2% -- from 4Q '10, sales were up 2%. And then you move into 1Q '11 and organic sales were flat. What's the best way to think about the comparison in the first quarter?

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst · Cleveland Research.

I'm not sure we followed your numbers there, your percentage increases.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst · Cleveland Research.

They don't sound like they're aligned with ours.

Tom Mahoney

Analyst · Cleveland Research.

Okay. I will -- we can follow it up after the call.

Frank H. Boykin

Analyst · Cleveland Research.

Yes. That might be better.

Operator

Operator

At this time, there are no other questions. I will now turn the call back over to the presenters for closing remarks.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Thank you very much for joining our call. It looked like were well-positioned at the marketplace, and we’re optimistic about 2012. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.