Vincent Galifi
Analyst · Itay Michaeli with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question
Well, thank you, Don, and good morning, everyone. As Don mentioned, following the worst year-over-year decline in vehicle production during the second quarter of 2020, that we can recall, we experienced a significant recovery in our key markets in the third quarter. And we quickly bounced back to profitability, stronger margins and solid free cash flow generation even on relatively low vehicle production. Our third quarter results include sales of $9.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $778 million, which is up 39%. Adjusted EBIT margin of 8.5% compared to 6% last year, adjusted net income attributable to Magna of $585 million, up 34%; adjusted diluted EPS of $1.95, up 38% over the third quarter of 2019 and free cash flow of $1.3 billion. We also returned $115 million to shareholders through dividends. Lastly, we increased our outlook for 2020. I'm going to cover these in my financial review. Our third quarter total sales were $9.1 billion, a decline of $190 million or 2% from the third quarter of 2019. Our sales were negatively impacted by lower assembly volumes at Magna Steyr, lower vehicle production, particularly in Europe, the end of production on certain programs and net customer price concessions. These were partially offset by the launch of new programs, the negative impact of the labor strike at GM that was reflected in our results in the third quarter of 2019 and currency translation, which was about $117 million tailwind. On an organic basis in the third quarter, our sales were roughly in line with global production, largely as anticipated coming into this quarter. Year-to-date, our sales have outgrown production on a Magna weighted basis by 4%. We also expect solid sales outperformance of the market in the fourth quarter, as you will see in our outlook. Despite the lower sales, adjusted EBITDA increased $220 million or 39% to $778 million. Our adjusted EBIT margin also increased compared to last year. We reported 8.5% in the third quarter of 2020, up from 6% in the third quarter of 2019. The increase reflects a higher margin percent earned on sales as a result of discretionary and structural cost savings and efficiencies realized across the company, the labor strike at GM, which negatively impacted results in the third quarter of last year, lower launch costs, productivity and efficiency improvements at certain underperforming facilities, lower spending for autonomy as a result of exiting our Lyft partnership at the end of last year and favorable mix in our complete vehicle segment. Also benefiting our margin in the third quarter by about 70 basis points with COVID-19 related government employee support programs, which have substantially come to an end in the third quarter. These were partially offset by higher foreign exchange losses and net warranty costs. Each of our segments generated a better adjusted EBIT both percent of sales and dollars compared to last year. Our effective income tax rate increased to 22.6% this year, compared to 19.6% in Q3 of 2019. The increase was primarily due to lower favorable changes to our reserves for uncertain tax positions, partially offset by change in the mix of earnings. Net income attributable to Magna was $585 million compared to $438 million in Q3 2019, reflecting the higher EBIT partially offset by higher interest expense and the impact of the higher effective tax rate. Diluted EPS was $1.95 for the second quarter compared to $1.41 last year. The increase reflects the higher net income and 4% fewer shares outstanding. I'm going to take a moment to discuss accounting for the non-cash impairment charge against the carrying value of our investment in our GJT joint venture. The legal ownership of the Getrag joint ventures is quite complex. We’ve included a summary in our appendix. Our net impairment this quarter is $200 million. However, a number of income statement lines are impacted. The pre-tax charge of $337 million, a tax recovery of $62 million and minority interest recovery of $75 million. Lastly, the U.S GAAP EPS impact on Magna of the impairment charge is $0.67. I will now review our cash flows and investment activities. During the third quarter of 2020, we generated $1.6 billion in cash from operations compared to $750 million in the third quarter of 2019. This included $518 million in cash generated from working capital, reflecting among other things the collection of customer receivables that have been delayed from the second quarter as well as a return to normal payment patterns with our supply base. Investment activities amounted to $293 million, including $213 million in fixed assets, $68 million in investments, other assets and intangible assets and a $12 million increase in private equity investments. Free cash flow was $1.3 billion in the third quarter. In addition, we returned $115 million to shareholders in the quarter through the payment of dividends. Our balance sheet remains very strong. At the end of the third quarter, our liquidity stood at $5.3 billion, including 1.6 billion in cash. Our adjusted debt, adjusted EBITDA at the end of the third quarter stands at 2.1x lower than the 2.35x in Q2. As anticipated, this is above our target range given the severe decline in EBITDA in the first half of the year. We will likely stay above the target range in the short-term, but expect the ratio to normalize back into the range in 2021. Yesterday, our Board approved our third quarter dividend of $0.40, reflecting our collective confidence in our liquidity and our future. We announced today that our Board approved subject to approval by the Toronto and New York Stock Exchanges a new Normal Course Issuer Bid to purchase up to 29.6 million of our common shares. This new bid will expire in November of 2021. Next, let me turn to our updated outlook. As always, our outlook is predicated on a set of vehicle production assumptions. Compared to other years, there remains a higher degree of uncertainty surrounding future production given risks associated with consumer demand, increasing COVID-19 infection rates, supply chain or other production challenges and other factors. If actual production vary significantly from our assumptions, our results may also very significantly. Our 2020 margin and cash flow outlook has improved from our August outlook, primarily reflecting strong operating performance and higher sales expectations. The improved sales expectations relate mainly to higher expected 2020 light vehicle production in key markets and currency tailwinds, some of which we experienced in the third quarter as well as increased anticipated assembly sales. The improvement in free cash flow outlook mainly reflects better than previously expected cash from operations and a slight decline in our expected capital spending for 2020. We also reinstated other elements of our outlook including sales by segment, equity income and net income attributable to Magna. In the appendix to our conference call slide deck, we've also included expected segment margins for full-year 2020. A few observations regarding our implied fourth quarter outlook compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Vehicle production is expected to be down approximately 4% and 6% in our key markets of North America and Europe, respectively. Overall, we also expect global vehicle production down approximately 10%. We anticipate another solid quarter in Q4, despite production volumes being down year-over-year. Our total sales range implies sales at worst level with Q4 2019 and a best up 11% with organic growth over market expected to be strong. Our EBIT percent range implies an EBIT dollar range of about $675 million to $850 million compared to $590 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. Our range for net income attributable to Magna is $515 million to $640 million compared to $433 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. And our free cash flow range for 2020 is now between $800 million and $1 billion implying a range of $550 million to $750 million for the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to a very strong $1.1 billion in Q4 of '19. This would bring our second half free cash flow to between about $1.85 billion and $2.05 billion compared to the $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion range we expected back in August. This solid outlook reflects the combined actions we have been taking across our business to address the current industry environment. Thanks for your attention this morning. We would all be pleased to answer your questions at this time.