Craig L. Knutson
Analyst · FBR Capital Markets
Thanks, Gudmundur. On Page 10, we purchased approximately $500 million of RPL NPL mortgage-backed securities in the first quarter while experiencing paydowns of approximately $200 million, thus, growing its portfolio by a little over $300 million. We particularly like these assets due to their low sensitivity to interest rates, what we believe to be low credit risk while at the same time, providing low double-digit ROEs. Their low duration is due primarily to the 300-basis-point coupon step-up after 3 years, which gives us confidence that they will have, at most, a 3-year final. In fact, most similar deals have been called well prior to their 3-year soft final. Now while the underlying loans certainly have credit risk, the combination of significant credit support, approximately 50%, and the locked down nature of the cash flows on the subordinate piece ensure that the senior bonds are well protected, and this credit protection increases as the deal seasons. Turning to Page 11. The credit metrics on the loans underlying our Legacy Non-Agency portfolio are very solid. Home price appreciation and principal amortization, approximately 60% of the underlying loans are now amortizing, both of these combined to reduce the LTVs. Delinquencies also continue to decline. 60-plus day delinquencies as of March 31 for the portfolio have declined to 14.7%. The loans are, on average, 108 months or 9 years seasoned. And as indicated in our press release and as Bill mentioned earlier, we again lowered our estimates of future losses in the portfolio and we transferred over $22 million from our credit reserves to accretable discount. All else equal, this increases the yield and we will recognize over the remaining life of these bonds. Turning to Page 12. On Page 12, we illustrate the LTV distribution of current loans in the portfolio. In particular, we focused on the at-risk loans, where the homeowner owes more on the mortgage than the property is worth. Although these mortgage loans are current, these borrowers are not delinquent at this time. These are the loans that we worry most about transitioning to delinquent in the future because of the fact that the borrowers are under water. As of March 31, less than $200 million face amount of current loans had LTVs over 110%. This is only about 4% of the current loans. On Page 13. We show realized losses experienced on the portfolio over the last 3 calendar years and for the first quarter of 2015. Keep in mind that these realized losses are fully expected and precisely why we have established the credit reserve. Note that after realized losses of $164 million in both 2012 and 2013, losses in 2014 decreased to $90 million. During the first quarter of 2015, realized losses were $20 million. Now the $874 million credit reserve has already been reduced by all actual losses already realized. At one point, these credit reserve was as high as $1.5 billion. These realized losses occur when the property securing mortgage loans are liquidated for less than the outstanding loan amount. In addition, for many of the fixed rate bonds in the portfolio, unrealized losses are generated when mortgage loans are modified through coupon reductions to troubled homeowners. While the loan modification reduces the interest rate paid by the borrower, the bond that we own has a contractual fixed rate coupon. So the interest collected from the borrower may be less than interest owed to us to the bondholder. In order to cure this interest shortfall, the trustee uses principal receipts to pay interest on our bond. This use of principal to pay interest effectively undercollateralizes our bond as the underlying principal balance of the loan is now less than the principal balance of the bonds that we own. In some rare cases, this loss is recognized in the period in which it occurs and pass through as a realized loss. But in most cases, the loss is not realized until the loan balance is reduced to 0 and yet, we still have a bond balance outstanding, which is very likely many years from now. At that point, the unrealized loss will become a realized loss. Turning to Page 14. We have become increasingly active in the credit-sensitive residential whole loan space, growing this asset class threefold since September 30 to $387 million. We're excited about this asset class for several reasons, one, investments in this asset class utilize much the same residential mortgage credit expertise that we have effectively deployed in the legacy non-agency space since 2008. Two, supply dynamics suggest that we will have significant opportunity to purchase these assets as current holders are obliged to shed them. Total supply is estimated at anywhere between $500 billion and $1 trillion, with $30 billion to $50 billion of expected annual sales in 2015 and 2016. Compare this to legacy non-agency, which is the shrinking market with fewer and fewer opportunities to purchase bonds. Three, we're excited to have the ability to oversee servicing decisions on troubled loans. For instance, by offering modifications to borrowers with such a modification will produce a better NPV outcome than a foreclosure and liquidation. Again, compared to legacy non-agency MBS, where we have no seat at that table, no visibility into the decision and often see losses pass through on these bonds that look excessive. Four, residential whole loans are good assets for us. That is the qualifying interests for purposes of the REIT qualification, which most RPL NPL mortgage-backed securities are not. And residential whole loans are qualifying interest for the purpose of the 1940 Act exemption, which legacy non-agency MBS are not. And finally, we believe that credit-sensitive residential whole loans further round out MFA's focus on credit versus pure interest rate risk. Turning to Slide 15. We are buying these credit-sensitive whole loans at material discounts to both their unpaid principal balance and also to the underlying property value. Our $387 million portfolio comprises 2,700 loans acquired through 13 transactions with 11 different counterparties. We've established relationships with dozens of key market participants, most of whom are different than our traditional trading partners for agency and non-agency MBS. We added some leverage to this asset class in the fourth quarter, and we're in discussions with additional lenders to add more financing in 2015. Leverage ratios on this asset class could be 2 to 3x debt-to-equity. And with that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Bill.