Earnings Labs

Medifast, Inc. (MED)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 20, 2024

$10.79

+0.28%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Medifast Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Steven Zenker, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, Steven. You may begin.

Steven Zenker

Analyst

Good afternoon, and welcome to Medifast's fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Dan Chard, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Maloney, Chief Financial Officer. By now, everyone should have access to the earnings release for the quarter ended December 31, 2023, that went out this afternoon at approximately 4:05 Eastern Time. If you have not received the release, it is available on the Investor Relations portion of Medifast website at www.medifastinc.com. This call is being webcast, and a replay will also be available on the company's website. Before we begin, we would like to remind everyone that today's prepared remarks contain forward-looking statements and management may make additional forward-looking statements in response to your questions. The words believe, expect, anticipate and other similar expressions generally identify forward-looking statements. These statements do not guarantee future performance, and therefore, undue reliance should not be placed on them. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements. All of the forward-looking statements contained herein speak only as of the date of this call. Medifast assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements that may be made in today's release or call. And with that, I would like to turn the call over to Medifast's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Dan Chard.

Dan Chard

Analyst

Thanks, Steve, and thanks to everyone for joining us on today's call. With me is Jim Maloney, Medifast's Chief Financial Officer. I'll kick off with some comments on the company's work to drive business transformation and empower sustainable growth in Medifast and an update on how we are delivering against our objectives. I'll then hand things over to Jim to walk through our Q4 and full year financials. Over the course of the past 40 years, Medifast has established itself as an important player in the U.S. health and wellness landscape. The company has consistently adapted to shifting consumer behavior, maintaining and building its relevance to ensure that it stays at the heart of the wellness journey of customers everywhere. Now Medifast is embarking on its biggest and most important transformation to date, taking bold steps to forge a new future as a diversified health and wellness company with significantly increased growth opportunities. While we historically focused on the $8 billion structured weight management segment of the total $230 billion health and wellness market, our new focus includes the medically supported weight management and sports nutrition segments, together, we expect these to more than quadruple the size of our target base. The weight loss market is expected to grow significantly over the next six years with GLP-1 medications alone projected to reach up to $100 billion by 2030, according to several Wall Street firms. Several factors are driving the significant growth projection, including further clinical development that improves efficacy and ease of administration, increasing insurance coverage and changes in pricing. At the end of last year, we announced a new strategic collaboration with leading telehealth provider, Life MD. Through this collaboration, our customers will have access to both our personalized habit-based coach guided approach along with the medical expertise of…

James Maloney

Analyst

Thank you, Dan. Good afternoon, everyone. 2023 full year results were in line with our guidance as we begin to leverage the cost savings generated in the prior quarters to establish a foundation in new markets and take action on planned growth initiatives. Revenue for the full year of $1.07 billion was at the upper end of our guidance range of $1.05 billion to $1.07 billion, but decreased 32.9% versus 2022, primarily driven by continued pressure on customer acquisition, which has led to a decline in the number of active earning OPTAVIA coaches and productivity per active earning OPTAVIA Coach. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2023 decreased 43.4% to $191 million from $337.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 as customer acquisition continues to be pressured by growth in popularity of weight loss medications. We ended the quarter with approximately 41,100 active earning OPTAVIA coaches, a decrease of 32.5% from the fourth quarter of 2022. Average revenue per active earning OPTAVIA Coach for the fourth quarter was $4,648, a year-over-year decline of 16.1% reflecting the continued headwinds to customer acquisition. Gross profit decreased 39.5% to $141.4 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, driven by lower revenue, gross profit margin improved 470 basis points to 74%, positively impacted by cost savings from the company's Fuel for the Future program as well as the absence of restructuring cost of certain manufacturing agreements that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2022. On a non-GAAP adjusted basis, excluding onetime expenses related to the 2022 restructuring. Gross profit decreased 42.5% to $141.4 million, and gross profit margin increased 110 basis points to 74%. SG&A expense was down 34% to $132.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2023 and primarily due to decreased coach compensation on lower volume and fewer active earning coaches,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Jim Salera with Stephens Inc. Please proceed with your question.

James Salera

Analyst

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking our question. If I take a look at the number of active earning coaches in the fourth quarter, at the end of the fourth quarter, I think if my math is correct, it's the biggest year-over-year decline of 2023, and I believe the first time quarterly revenue per coach was below $5,000, at least as far back as I have the quarterly numbers, I think, to 2017. Is that a trend that we're going to need to see reverse before the sales trend can stabilize or do you guys feel that when you turn on the marketing spend at the company level, that it's going to enable you to grow without relying as much on a return to growth in coaches as well?

Dan Chard

Analyst

Yeah. That's a great question. And I think part of the answer is tied to what we saw in the period going from 2016 to 2017, as we resume growth based on our new model. So what we expect to see is as we complete the integration of the technology between Medifast and LifeMD that will give our clients -- our coaches the ability to have a seamless experience for clients and we'll expand our offer to include not only the new products that we've launched, but also a seamless experience as they are able to access LifeMDs clinician services as well as the medically supported weight loss products. At that point, what we'd expect to see is a little bit lower per order revenue number, but an expanded ability to acquire new clients returning to something closer to what we've seen in the past. The other thing that we expect to see Steve (ph) is that we will we'll have a broader or longer lifetime in terms of mismeasure by months for each of these new clients. So those two things together should drive that productivity per coach back up to historical levels.

James Salera

Analyst

As a follow-up, Dan your comment on LifeMD, should we think about the incremental sales lift from that partnership as kind of limited until the fully integrated offer is launched. I mean does that prevent you guys from seeing much incrementality or should we still expect to continue that to ramp even before the integrated product is launched in the middle of the year?

James Maloney

Analyst

Yeah. So this is Jim, Jim. So our Q1 guidance, we're -- we believe we're going to continue to see pressure in revenue due to we're looking at that seamless offer. And in our prepared remarks, we mentioned that's going to happen midyear. So once that activity is finalized, then you're going to see incremental advertising, company advertising pretty much in the range of about $20 million to $30 million, which the company has really never spent that kind of money in this channel before. So we're expecting the channel regarding LifeMD for customers and the channel for company-led acquisition to be in the back half of 2024 due to that seamless offer, getting the technology ready for that seamless offer.

James Salera

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then if I can maybe sneak in one other question for you, Jim. You guys saw a solid gross margin uplift in 4Q. And I believe in the slide deck, you mentioned $45 million in fuel for savings for the year for 2023. Can you maybe just size up what the opportunity for that is in 2024, given the headwind that you're going to see from the increase in company led marketing?

James Maloney

Analyst

Yeah. I mean we’re – the 110 basis point improvement on a non-GAAP basis in gross margin, we are – that was mainly from the price increase that we took at the end of Q4 of 2024, and it’s really just lapping that price increase. What I’m expecting the fuel for the future program that generated about $45 million to operating income that benefited both cost of sales and SG&A, and that will continue. Those cost savings will continue into 2024. We haven’t presented a target for that. So we’re not – we didn’t provide any target for that, but we are going to get additional savings, but we do expect that all the cost savings from the fuel for the future will be spent back on investment for growth opportunities. The one you mentioned is the marketing – the company-led marketing activity, that will be about $20 million to $30 million on a full year basis that really won’t start until later on this year once we get the seamless offer ready. Also, we’re spending funds on market research, technology and other activities regarding medically supportive weight loss in Q4, just to give you a feel, we – those investments were about 690 basis points, and that did not even include the $5 million of the initial payment that we paid LifeMD. So we’re going to continue to invest in the – in these growth opportunities for the next year and you’re going to see pressure on not just our gross margin, it’s going to be more really looking at our operating income margin, is really where that’s going to be impacted the most. So it’s going to be included mostly in SG&A, where it was in Q4.

James Salera

Analyst

Got it. Helpful color, guys. Thank you. I’ll hop back in the queue.

Dan Chard

Analyst

Thanks, Jim.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Linda Bolton-Weiser with D.A. Davidson. Please proceed with your question.

Linda Bolton-Weiser

Analyst

Hi. Thank you. So just so I understand the comments you made about the incremental costs and expenses. The 200 basis points to 300 basis points of incremental spending, which I think you said would all be in SG&A. Is that in -- is that in addition to and separate from the advertising spending that you're talking about?

James Maloney

Analyst

No, that's the same. So the 200 basis points to 300 basis points, which really equates to approximately $20 million to $30 million. We're going to start spending that in the coming months as we get the seamless offer completed by midyear. So you're going to see that type of spend start to happen probably towards the end of Q2 and then into Q3 and beyond. So that's our expectations at this point, Linda.

Linda Bolton-Weiser

Analyst

Right. But I'm trying to clarify, like, is that advertising spending to draw people into the seamless offering?

James Maloney

Analyst

Yes, it is. Correct.

Linda Bolton-Weiser

Analyst

Okay. Then you should have the seamless offering already to go at the time you start turning on that advertising spend. Is that the way to think about it?

James Maloney

Analyst

That's exactly right. Yes. And we're thinking that's going to happen midyear, and that's when you're going to see that type of incremental advertising happening. And that will be recorded in SG&A.

Linda Bolton-Weiser

Analyst

Okay. I got you. So that means that well, I guess, I guess here's the thing. I mean are you working in conjunction in a collaborative effort with LifeMD to put forth an advertising message and are they spending the same amount or are you spending? Like what's the combined spending on the advertising front?

Dan Chard

Analyst

I think that's -- we -- what LifeMD spend is something for them to announce. The message is the message they're putting out is to draw -- is to say, their traditional message, which ties to their primary care physician services. What we do know, though, and we mentioned this in the comments, if you step back and you say, what is it really that we're doing as a company, and it's, first, we're giving a new message to our coaches, which means that coaches can now offer the support of the clinician for the OPTAVIA programs. So it's a modified message for them, and they'll continue to use that message over both in our communities and using social media platforms. The second channel for client acquisition is the one that Jim just described and that you asked the question on, which is company-led acquisition. That's done in coordination with our coaches and it's providing coaches -- the coach offer within that message. The third is the one that you're asking about now, which is client acquisition through our partner, LifeMD. So what -- they have a very specific formula to drive the best results for their client -- the patient acquisition. What they also know is that once their patients are in and using their prod, let they've surveyed them and they know that's a significant portion. So I'll describe that as above 50% and of the patients they bring in are looking for additional support for lifestyle programs. And the type of lifestyle programs that we offer through OPTAVIA. So the intention is to support those patients who want to have that kind of support. So we're at the very beginning of this. This was part of the reason they were excited and enthusiastic about partnering with us through this collaboration agreement. And we believe that through these three new client acquisition channels, we have an important and meaningful way to impact our client acquisition capabilities as we move through the year.

Linda Bolton-Weiser

Analyst

So as we go forward in time, over the long term, do you expect to continue to ramp up the pull marketing spend? So you're saying it's going to be $20 million to $30 million. So that's 2% to 3% of sales like does that go higher over time to 5% of sales or does it go lower as your coach network becomes used to marketing that message?

James Maloney

Analyst

Yes. I don't know we know that answer right now, and there will be more to come on that as we learn more information on this. This is the early stages of this. But what I can say on that is we're going to look to see what the return on investment of that marketing spend is to that particular channel and determine the profitability of that channel to make additional adjustments within that channel on marketing spend. So there's going to be more to come on that. There's really -- I can't give you a full answer on that for you to model out 2025. But we wanted to give what 2024 will look like to investors at this point.

Linda Bolton-Weiser

Analyst

Okay. And then I'm just curious, are you making any changes to your commission structure to help fund the advertising spend or are you making no changes at this time for the commission structure?

Dan Chard

Analyst

No changes at this time to the commission structure.

Linda Bolton-Weiser

Analyst

Okay. And maybe you could share with us what you're learning from LifeMD about like what am I saying about the availability of the branded drugs versus compounded. I know they work with a compounder or compounders for the drug to get their drugs to their customers, to their patients. Are they seeing more availability of the branded drug or like kind of what are they saying on that front?

Dan Chard

Analyst

I think their access is the same as everyone else's to the brand. And I think there have been some supply shortages that I think you're referencing. And they have a reliable supplier for the compounded version of the active GLP-1 ingredients. So they're able to offer both solutions for their patients. And -- but like I said, there's no -- I mean their access to the branded product is through the same pharmacies that everybody else is using.

Linda Bolton-Weiser

Analyst

Okay. And then -- can you just remind us in terms of what they provide to patients, do they help them with insurance navigation. And if so, what percentage of their GLP-1 patients have insurance coverage for that?

Dan Chard

Analyst

They do offer assistance with navigating the insurance question and provide solutions for those who are not insured or underinsured. We don't report on their specific metrics, so I'll leave that question to them to answer in terms of what percentage are insured versus uninsured. But I do think -- and I think you're getting at this, and I mentioned this earlier, they have a unique offering during a time of scarcity and some supply constraints to provide those who are looking for an answer through alternative made other than through their compound pharmacy to have a viable way to achieve the benefits of medically supported weight loss. And so I think that was one of the attractive offers that they have along with their very specific type of primary care physician support through their robust platform. So I think we’re I would say at this stage, we are very pleased with the collaboration that we're seeing. As we said, where our IT -- respective IT teams are actively working as we speak to achieve this integration. And all of that is meant to provide an excellent client experience on our side or patient experience on their side to achieve this lifestyle component that's becoming more and more relevant as we learn more about what people are looking for and how to achieve the best outcomes while using GLP-1 medications.

Linda Bolton-Weiser

Analyst

Okay. And then finally, the range for EPS for the first quarter, it seems a little bit wide. Is the variability of getting to the low end versus the high end of EPS, is that just variability around how revenue comes out or is it that you're unsure of gross margin or the SG&A spending level? What's the variability there?

James Maloney

Analyst

Yeah. It's mainly the SG&A spending, and it depends on the investments that I spoke about earlier, how much of it is actually spent in Q1 -- that's the majority of the variability.

Linda Bolton-Weiser

Analyst

Okay. All right. Thanks a lot. I appreciate it.

James Maloney

Analyst

Thank you.

Dan Chard

Analyst

Thanks, Linda.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no questions -- there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the floor back to Dan Chard for any closing comments.

Dan Chard

Analyst

Like to thank you both for your questions and for the opportunity to further expand on our transformative vision on today's call. Today, we stand at the start of an important shift in this company's proud and successful history as we broaden our approach and position ourselves to be ever more central to the health and wellness journeys of people across the United States and beyond. We have a remarkable platform built on deep experience, strong collaborations, investment firepower and talented and passionate coaches and employees who can help us deliver on our goals and our mission to make healthy habits second nature has never been more important in a world where obesity remains a significant and growing problem. I'm excited about the opportunity that Medifast has to become an ever more important part of the solution and I look forward to updating you further on our progress on our next call. Thanks, everyone, and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.