Greetings. Welcome to the Medifast Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I'll now turn the conference over to your host, Steven Zenker, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Good afternoon, and welcome to Medifast third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Dan Chard, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Maloney, Chief Financial Officer. By now, everyone should have access to the earnings release for the quarter ended September 30, 2023, that went out this afternoon at approximately 4:05 PM Eastern Time. If you have not received the release, it is available on the Investor Relations portion of Medifast's website at www.medifastinc.com. This call is being webcast, and a replay will also be available on the company's website. Before we begin, we would like to remind everyone that today's prepared remarks contain forward-looking statements and management may make additional forward-looking statements in response to your questions. The words believe, expect, anticipate and other similar expressions generally identify forward-looking statements. These statements do not guarantee future performance and, therefore, undue reliance should not be placed on them. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements. All of the forward-looking statements contained herein speak only as of the date of this call. Metifast assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements that may be made in today's release or call. And with that, I would like to turn the call over to Medifast's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Dan Chard.

Thanks, Steve, and thanks to all of you for joining us on the call. With me today is Jim Maloney, Medifast's Chief Financial Officer. I'll take a few minutes to share some insights from Medifast's journey over the last 12 months and then provide you with some context for where we're taking the business. I'll then turn the call to Jim, who will take you through Q3 financials. There are two key takeaways from our latest results. First, our financial position remains very strong and we continue to deliver solid profitability despite continued top-line headwinds. Second, we are making steady progress on several initiatives to expand our offering into the broader health and wellness market and drive sustainable long-term growth. Our recent entry into the sports nutrition market with our new OPTAVIA ACTIVE line is one example. Weight loss medications are another major opportunity for us as the surging awareness and popularity of these products has prompted a huge change in the way the consumers think about weight loss and lifestyle modification solutions in general. As a result, earlier this year, we commissioned an extensive independent market research study to understand consumer sentiment in regards to the medications and our coach-based habit-centered lifestyle program within this evolving business environment. What was immediately clear is that our addressable market is split relatively evenly regarding weight loss medications. Around half of those looking for weight loss solutions are accepting of medication-based therapies, and around half of them reject the idea of using GLP-1 medications like Wegovy to support weight loss. The research clearly demonstrates that most of those who are interested in medical weight loss medications are also looking for support beyond a prescription that includes clarity on how they should incorporate healthy eating and exercise into their lifestyle while using these…

Thank you, Dan. Good afternoon, everyone. Third quarter 2023 results were at or above our guidance. As we continue to execute our cost reduction initiatives with the savings intended to be utilized for key initiatives to stimulate growth. Revenue of $235.9 million was at the upper end of our guidance range of $220 million to $240 million, but decreased 39.6% versus the year-earlier period, primarily driven by a decline in the number of active earning OPTAVIA Coaches and lower productivity per active earning OPTAVIA Coach. Customer acquisition continues to be pressured by the macroeconomic shift impacting inflation and interest rates and the growth in popularity of weight loss medications. We ended the quarter with approximately 47,100 active earning OPTAVIA Coaches, as -- a decrease of 28.9% from the third quarter of 2022. Average revenue per active earning OPTAVIA Coach for the third quarter was $5,008, a year-over-year decline of 15.1%, reflecting the continued headwinds to customer acquisition, partially offset by a price increase we implemented in November of last year. Gross profit decreased 37.3% year-over-year to $177.4 million, driven by lower revenue, while gross profit margin improved 270 basis points to 75.2%, positively impacted by efficiencies in inventory management and lower supply chain costs, including benefits from the optimization of our distribution center footprint. SG&A expense was down 35.3% year-over-year to $151.9 million due to the decreased coach compensation on lower volumes and fewer active earning coaches, as well as progress on several cost reduction and optimization initiatives and the impact of charitable donations in 2022. SG&A as a percentage of revenue increased 430 basis points, primarily reflecting the loss of leverage on fixed costs due to lower sales volumes compared to 2022 as well as market research and investment costs in this year's third quarter related to medically-supported weight…

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Linda Bolton Weiser with D.A. Davidson. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, hello. So, your gross margin was very impressive in the quarter, the 75% number. It sounds like those are kind of permanent-type improvements you've made along the lines of the supply chain. Is that 75% gross margin level, is that something that's roughly sustainable going forward, or how should we think about that level?

Yeah, the -- Linda, this is Jim. So, the gross margin improvement we saw in Q3, at the 75%, we saw that through our Fuel for the Future initiatives. We're starting to see the benefits of optimizing our distribution centers, which we've seen improvement in our inventory controls with less obsolescence compared to the prior year. And we've also seen improvement in our procurement practices, which has -- have lowered costs. The thing when you're -- we're not really going to talk to the gross -- at a gross margin level since we haven't provided guidance going forward. But what I can say on that is, there is some fixed costs within our cost of sales. As we see lower revenues that are forecasted, we will lose some leverage on our P&L within the gross margin level. So, that will impact Q4. So, right now, we're projecting the revenue range in Q4 between $170 million and $190 million in Q4, and that loss on leverage will impact gross margin.

Right, okay. And then, I'm curious about, Dan, you're talking about the testing or trying out some digital marketing methods. And that's a little unusual being that you pay a lot of commissions to your coaches to kind of drive demand. Do you think down the road, like if you were to adopt some kind of permanent method of digital marketing, is there any way to quantify what percentage of revenue you might spend on that? Are we talking it's like just a few percentage points of revenue or could it be higher than that? Thanks.

Yeah, Linda, we're at the very beginning stages of doing these tests. As you know from the past, this is not new to us. In the past, we had a direct marketing organization that marketed directly to end users. We, as you pointed out, moved away from that, letting our coaches use their word-of-mouth campaign over social media in -- rather than us spending our dollars to do that. The reality is that the environment has changed. And through some of the things that we've talked about in the past, including changes in social media algorithms, as well as a more crowded and more, I'll say, dynamic message that's going on out there, we think it's a good time for us to take some of those learnings that we have from the past, some of the learnings that we talked about in the future around medical weight loss and to introduce a new message through the company's lead advertising. We've been doing small tests. We feel good about what we've seen so far. Anything that we do will be done only once we understand the benefits from a financial standpoint of doing it. So, I'd say the important thing is assume that we are going to test right now, which is what we've been doing both in the Hispanic market and, more broadly, understand how we improve that client acquisition cost and use it to get a new message out there that ties to our broader offering that includes the things that we're learning about, the ability to offer medical weight -- medically-supported weight loss, our ability to offer a broader offering, which is inclusive of the active program. And we believe all this will help make our coaches more productive and return to some of the productivity levels we've been in the past.

Okay. And then, I was just wondering about if you could give any color on what you saw in October, with the return to people paying educational loan payments. Like, are you seeing kind of worsening trends or kind of the same? What are you seeing kind of so far in the most recent couple of weeks?

Yeah. I mean, when you look at our metrics, and really I'll just speak to our metrics, when you look at retention of customers, when you look at average revenue per order, those types of metrics have held steady in the month of October. It's really -- the customer acquisition is the one metric that we're seeing that is below our historical norms, and that is reflected in the guidance we provided.

Okay. And then, I guess I can do the math, but Jim, what are you guiding for tax rate for the fourth quarter?

Yeah. For the fourth quarter, just to step back on the tax rates, so, we're actually seeing that the -- so as we noted in the earnings release, we finalized our 2022 tax return in Q3, and as a standard practice, we adjust prior estimates to the actual amounts per the tax return during this timeframe. Typically, it's not this large of an adjustment, and we actually weren't anticipating it to be that size, but it's really just a one-time adjustment. You can see that we're projecting on a full-year basis our tax rate to be between 20.5% to 21.5% on a full-year basis. So, on the quarter basis, I wouldn't expect that you're going to see 12.9% again. You're just going to -- you're going to see something much closer to the 20% level.

Okay. And is that one-time tax benefit? Is that cash or non-cash?

That was a cash benefit that we got in 2023.

So, it's essentially reflected in your year-to-date cash flows?

Correct, yes.

Okay. Got you. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Jim Salera with Stephens Inc. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking our question. I wanted to ask a little bit around the consumer that seems to not want to engage with the medically-supported weight loss. To be honest, a 50-50 split is frankly better than we would have anticipated, just given all kind of the headline news about the GLP-1 drugs. Can you maybe offer some color around what their hesitation is to use kind of the pharmaceutical option on that? And is that something that maybe over time their opinion could change?

Yeah. Jim, this is Dan. I think this has been an interesting part for us too, because I think, what we -- I'm not -- we would have expected something slightly different as well. But I think that set of consumers are those who are, I'll say, more confident in their ability to do it on their own and don't feel like they are ready for medical intervention. What we do know is that as the amount of weight loss an individual has to lose goes up, their interest in medically-supported weight loss goes up as well. But equally important for us was that we saw that those individuals who were interested in medically-supported weight loss were also those individuals who were most interested in the OPTAVIA program. So, we tested a variation on our program that specifically designed and focused on helping those who are either thinking about using medically-supported weight loss or who are currently using medically-supported weight loss. And that group was roughly 4 times as interested in our program as those who were not interested in medically-supported weight loss. So, really it's about their confidence in doing on their own and their ability -- or their need for greater weight loss in terms of overall weight to lose.

That's helpful. I think in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that you were working with a select group of coaches to help kind of train them on the cross-sell with the GLP-1 drugs. Could you just give us an idea for, was it just kind of a random selection of coaches and you just wanted to have a smaller pilot program, or were they selected based on maybe their existing customer base that might be more susceptible or more likely to pair the GLP-1 drugs with your program?

Yeah. Typically what we do is, and this rotates depending on what we're trying to test, so we work quite consistently with our coach leadership to identify different things that we want to test. So, these coaches were selected based on their ability to pivot, to test a new message, and based on their, I'll say, performance in the past of being able to generate activity from their client base. So, they're not -- so, we didn't go out and try to find -- we didn't pre-screen them to find out whether they were open to the idea. We took a small sub-sample of our over 40,000 coaches and with a very specific focus on understanding how clients that they pulled in would respond, and also how coaches would respond to this new model of creating a partnership between clinician, coach, and client. And what we found was very positive. I think there was initially a lot of questions from our coaches about how this might work. And as we have proceeded through the pilot, what we have found is that there are -- there is an increasing number of clients who are being coached, who are currently on medical weight loss, and that this addition of the ability to offer this service, if you will, of a prescription for medically-supported weight loss along with the program supported by an OPTAVIA Coach has significant appeal. So, with that in mind, we have moved from phase one of that pilot to phase two. So now what we're really specifically focused on is understanding what a medically-supported weight loss client or customer looks like as they move through their health transformation journey with the coach. But initial results were positive enough for us to move to the next phase. And we have a strong belief that there's some -- that the OPTAVIA program -- lifestyle program that now includes the ACTIVE line is actually more relevant than it ever has been before, but it requires us to be able to offer that ability for that 50% who want medically-supported weight loss to be complete.

Thanks. That's helpful color. Maybe since you mentioned the ACTIVE line, if I could shift to ask a question or two there? It sounds like it's really meant to be complementary to someone who's already engaged with the broader program. Do you have a sense for if there's an opportunity to lead with ACTIVE for maybe a customer that's at kind of their target weight already but wants to help -- wants to maintain that and wants a kind of a collaborative environment where they can work with a coach? Or is it really something that comes in after the client has already signed up for the broader program, and that just kind of helps them as they get closer to their weight loss goal?

Actually, a little bit of both. What it does is it expands our addressable market significantly, and it does that by -- both the examples that I used. For those who are coming in and interested in weight loss specifically, it allows our coaches to include the habit of healthy motion or exercise as part of that program. From that standpoint, it helps drive up lifetime value both by increasing expenditure while they're on program, as well as extending the lifetime value as they transition off. It also allows us to extend that target to those who are already closer to their healthy weight and are focused on moving more towards an optimal health state in their health journey. And so in that case, it can take somebody who is already at a healthy weight and improve their overall health by adding exercise to it. Equally important, and the third reason that we've talked about this, is adding the ACTIVE line and an ACTIVE program completes our overall lifestyle management solution. I don't think it's lost on anyone that all of the research that was done, clinical research by the medical weight loss pharma companies, their claims are tied to healthy diet or reduced calorie diet and increased activity in addition to taking the GLP-1 drugs. And so, the addition of the ACTIVE line and coaches who can coach to increase physical activity completes our offer from that standpoint as well, allowing us to be very complimentary and even at the center of the long-term solution for those who are using GLP-1 drugs.

That's very helpful. Maybe one more question on the ACTIVE line. I know we're still early days. Is there kind of a line of sight to expand the product offering there beyond just kind of your core protein and amino acid blend? Are there other products we could think about, whether it's like either supplements or like a pre-workout that would be complementary, or is that too much kind of outside the core of what you're trying to do?

Yes, the plan is to extend the line with products being launched next year. Again, reflective of what we learn about this initial launch. But we're already receiving feedback from and had already identified some close-in opportunities to make the line more competitive and more complete. So, the intention is to introduce additional products next year.

Okay. Great. I'll hop back in the queue. Thanks, guys.

Thank you.

Thanks.

Our next question comes from the line of Doug Lane with Water Tower Research. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, hi. Good evening, everybody. And the case for the GLP-1 is pretty compelling, Dan, that you make here. And I understand wanting to add it to your product offerings. I guess I look at your balance sheet, I would just assume that outright acquisition makes a lot of sense. That's what WeightWatchers did. But you mentioned a number of other possible arrangements, partnerships, investments, et cetera. Maybe help us understand why something other than an outright acquisition could make sense here?

Sure, Doug. It's good to hear from you. We have been taking a very thoughtful approach to this. Initially, we were evaluating what role GLP-1 drugs might play in a coach-centered habit-based model. We moved from analyzing to exploring by partnering with three different telehealth companies. And that's allowed us to get a feel for what we have that's complementary, what they have that gives us the ability to make this offer compelling for our customers and our coaches. What we found is there's some things that we do very well that telehealth companies don't, and there's some things that they do very well or they have a capability of doing that we don't have the capability of doing. But there's a lot outside of that crossover. So, as we're moving into this next phase, we're trying to ensure that we do what is right for the business and, by that, I mean both coaches, clients, but also our financials. There are different levels of success and profitability inside telehealth companies, and as you know, we have one of our success marks in the past has been high cash generation and improved margins. So, we're thoughtful about how we maintain that, but also have the potential of leveraging some of these outside capabilities. So, it's an evaluation and that evaluation is being made on an even deeper level now that we're moving into phase two of these pilots.

That makes a lot of sense. That's good color. I mean, can we see an instance where you start with an investment -- or start with a partnership, moves to an investment, moves to an acquisition? I mean, this could be a multi-stage process, right?

Yeah, absolutely. I think one of the things that we are all very aware of is this -- while GLP-1 drugs in the first generation and second generation have been around for a while, there's a lot of changes that are taking place, including insurance coverage, including different types of products that are coming out or are currently in testing. So, we're watching very closely, making sure that we remain nimble and we'll do what's right for our investors and what works from a capital standpoint. I think you pointed out accurately, Doug, we have a lot of flexibility because we have no debt on our balance sheet, strong cash position, and the ability to make a lot of good decisions for the long term, as the long term start -- continues to unfold and we learn more about the market and how it works inside our model.

All right, that makes sense. Thanks, Dan.

Hey, it looks like we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Dan Chard for closing remarks.

Thank you, and thanks for your continued interest in Medifast. As a team, we're excited by the opportunity that lies ahead, and we look forward to sharing more on our progress in the coming weeks and months. We hope to see many of you at the upcoming investor conference, including the Stephens Annual Conference on November 14th and the ICR Annual Conference in early January. Again, thank you for your time today.

This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.