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Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Sun, Mar 1, 2020

$21.91

+0.46%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day. And welcome to the Mayville Engineering Company Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. Today, all participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Nathan Elwell, with Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Nathan Elwell

Analyst

Thank you. Welcome everyone and thank you for joining us on today's call. A few quick items before we begin. First, please note that some of the information that you will hear during this call will consist of forward-looking statements within the meaning of section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of as amended. Such statements express our expectations, anticipation, beliefs, estimates, intentions, plans and forecasts. Because these forward-looking statements involve risks, assumptions and uncertainties, our actual results could differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements.For more information regarding such risks and uncertainties, please see our filings with these Securities and Exchange Commission including our filing on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30th, 2019. We assume no obligation and deny intend to update any such forward-looking statements except as required by federal securities laws.Second, this call will involve a discussion of certain non-GAAP financial measures; reconciliation of these measures to the closest GAAP financial measure is included in the earnings press release, which is available at mecink.com.Joining me on the call today is Bob Kamphuis, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. And Todd Butz, Chief Financial Officer and Ryan Raber, Executive Vice President of Strategy, sales and Marketing. First, Bob will provide an overview about performance. Then Todd will review our financial results and guidance.With that I'll hand the call over to Bob.

Bob Kamphuis

Analyst

Thank you, Nathan. Good morning, everyone and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year earnings call. 2019 was a pivotal year in MEC's history, one in which we had several noteworthy accomplishments. First accomplishment and the reason we're all here today, we completed our initial public offering in early May which eliminated destock or purchase obligations in the future and allowed us to pay down a significant amount of debt.Second, we successfully completed the integration of the DMP operations. For the full year, we produced net sales of $519.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $53.1 million. Our full year results highlight the ongoing potential for our business, but our most recent two quarters obviously reflected the rapid shift in demand in many of the end markets we serve, which began late in the third quarter and continued through the end of the year.These dynamic shifts led to many near-term production schedule changes for most of our key customers impacting both the legacy MEC and former DMP operations. The changes were most prevalent within the commercial vehicle, construction and agricultural markets. Furthermore, as we discussed during our third quarter earnings call the UAW Union labor issues impacted some of our commercial vehicle customers and presented us with additional challenges that negatively impacted production schedules. While the strikes were certainly sources of frustration for our team and certainly our customers, I'm glad that they were resolved quickly and are no longer an issue moving forward.Our fourth quarter unfolded generally as we anticipated and despite these demand shifts, we are pleased that our results match the updated expectations we established last October for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. I am particularly encouraged by the ongoing progress we're making with the former DMP locations and I'm very excited about the opportunities for growth and…

Todd Butz

Analyst

Thanks Bob. I'll begin with a look at our 2019 full-year financial performance with some color on our fourth quarter before providing commentary on our balance sheet, liquidity and outlook for 2020. As noted in our press release, we record full-year net sales of $519.7 million as compared to $354.5 million for 2018. An increase of $165.2 million. The DMP locations accounted for a $188.6 million of the change and were slightly offset by declines in our legacy business. For the fourth quarter, net sales were $102.3 million as compared to $91.4 million for the same prior year period. An increase of $10.9 million. The former DMP locations contributed $33.1 million of the change offset by declines in our legacy MEC business. Both the MEC legacy and DMP businesses were adversely impacted by sudden declines in market demand that began in late third quarter and continued through the fourth quarter.These declines were most apparent in the commercial vehicle, agricultural and construction end market served. These market demand changes through destocking activities which adding more pronounced impacts on the legacy MEC businesses than the former DMP locations, especially in the fourth quarter. Destocking down from lower retail sales resulted in customer decision to reduce dealer inventory levels by reducing and curtailing near-term production schedules. In addition, several key customers in the CD market experienced labor's union issues spanning the third and fourth quarters of 2019. Negatively impacting production schedules for both the former DMP and the legacy MEC locations.For the full year 2019, manufacturing margins were $58.7 million as compared to $55.6 million for the prior year, an increase of $8.1 million. The former DMP locations contributed $21.1 million of the change were offset by decline the legacy MEC location. For the fourth quarter, manufactured margins were $4 million as compared…

Bob Kamphuis

Analyst

Thank you, Todd. Despite the challenges at surface near the end of the year, we're still confident in our long-term business prospects. And we are well positioned for success in our served markets based on our market leading position, our dedicated customer focus and strong balance sheet. We have and will continue to make necessary costs adjustments in the short term and opportunistically implement our flexible and agile selling and production processes wherever we can. Particularly at this point and as a reminder, MEC is a US domestic company serving US domestic customers. And we have a strong track record of adopting and adjusting our business as markets shift to succeed over the medium to long term.We have done it before and we are doing it again now. I just wanted to take another moment to thank and commend our employee shareholders for their hard work and diligence this past year. The dedication of our workforce is something that I take great pride in and something that I do not take lightly. While we have faced some adversity recently, 2019 was a significant year for us and one that was necessary in order to take our organization to new heights in the future.With our prepared comments complete, we'd like to open up the call for questions. Operator, please go ahead.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]Today's first comes from Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies. Please proceed.

StephenVolkmann

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, gentlemen. So, Bob thanks for the sort of the rundown across the different end market. That's quite helpful. I guess my first question and I'm trying to kind of drill in on your guidance a little bit. So the first question is, are these end markets kind of stable at these current rates? Do you think anything is still deteriorating as you sort of went through the fourth quarter and into January? And just kind of trying to figure out if we're sort of seeing a bottoming process here or if there are still some risks to certain end markets?

BobKamphuis

Analyst

Sure. Well, let me just comment first on the commercial vehicle markets. Certainly those in our plan are a continued decline through the year. That market will likely be bottoming towards the end of this year and into next year with likely some lifts coming in the latter part of next year. But for this year, we believe that we have the downside and the change in our range of revenues. In the off-road Ag and construction markets certainly inventory destocking is still taking place. We believe that that will moderate during the year and that there will be a return to a different level albeit with some of the typical seasonality in the agriculture area that changes might be a little bit invisible with the season old generally lower second-half. Other markets, it will be based on things that we are able to accomplish in the marketplace. For instance in Powersports the gain in market share and in the military area, somewhat growth but also market share gains that we would expect. But we have some of that downside risk or if it did not occur factored into our range as well.

StephenVolkmann

Analyst

Okay. And I guess the flip side during the IPO process, we talked a lot about the ability to sort of backfill during times like these with additional customers or additional business with existing customers. Have you factored in any of that into 2020 or do we think about that more as like a 2021?

BobKamphuis

Analyst

Yes. We factored very little of that into our numbers. So I think that would push us to the upper side of the range that we talked about.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mig Dobre of Baird. Please go ahead.

MigDobre

Analyst

Yes. Thank you. Good morning. Can you hear me okay? Hi, there. Can you maybe help us understand your thinking in terms of cadence of the revenues through the year at the midpoint you are guiding down 14, but I'm suspecting that we're going to start much slower than that and probably the back half looking better. So how do you think about it? What's in your forecast?

RyanRaber

Analyst

Hey, Mig. This is Ryan here. So kind of like Bob said, there's some sequential declines that we were anticipating in the Class 8 market that would kind of quarter-over-quarter sequentially lower, but a lot of the questions around destocking we believe the sooner that ends the better the revenues will be. So as we think about the full year and certainly staying close to our customers and [Indiscernible] inventories as well as age of fleets and things that could drive some increased replacement cycles where some of those markets, we would answer into the half has a potential to be stronger than the front end.

MigDobre

Analyst

Maybe to put a finer point on it. Do you actually envision your business growing in aggregate at any point in 2020 the fourth quarter or maybe even third?

ToddButz

Analyst

I would say that again we're watching the markets very closely and our expectation is that once destocking activities end I would expect hopeful this as Ryan stated at the back half will start to gain some momentum and we'll see that sales growth begin to happen and as Bob alluded to earlier, we've added two new customers and some markets and as those programs come into the full run rate, we are optimistically looking to see growth in the second half.

MigDobre

Analyst

Okay. Last question for me. Can you talk a little bit about some of the actions that you've done on the expense side? I mean you've obviously done a lot to integrate DMP and maybe also some variable costs take out. How do we think about savings? What's incremental in terms of savings for 2020 versus 2019? Thank you.

ToddButz

Analyst

Certainly. So it's a great question and one of the things that are unfortunately being masked by just the lower volumes in 2020 is all the good improvements we've made. The integration of DMP as Bob alluded to is now behind us. The cross-selling activities are taking hold. The consolidations of plants are yielding the benefits that we expected and in fact, we've seen a positive increase in our manufacturing margin percentage of over 280 basis points. Unfortunately, all those nice cost reductions and restructurings we've done is being masked by the under absorbed overhead. And as it really netted down to maybe more of a breakeven on a percentage. We're slightly better on a percentage basis year-over-year even with all these kind of, let's say, market headwinds currently. So when markets do rebound, I think we're in a very good position to really see that uptick in the margins.

Operator

Operator

Our next comes from Andrew Kaplowitz of Citi. Please go ahead.

AndrewKaplowitz

Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys. Bob, so you mentioned before the abrupt changes that your customers made literally last year in commercial vehicles, Ag and construction may be following on the Steve's question. Have you seen any more of these abrupt changes in 2020? And is there any precedent in the business that you've seen for how to think about the coronavirus stuff and its potential impact on net customers?

BobKamphuis

Analyst

Sure. Let me first talk about the business in general even before we had acquired Defiance to round out our commercial vehicle presence, we were in the commercial vehicle market. So we've seen these types of cycles before and have adjusted our costs appropriately as we have this time as well. So that market and other markets were adjusting the way we have in the past. It has to do with getting rid of the variable costs always sharpening our processes through continuous improvement efforts as well as our utilization and pricing regarding the materials and supplies that go into our end product. But the big things we can do at these points are also just keep our foot on the gas and continuous improvement. With regard to the coronavirus topic, really there's very little risk that we have in our throughput. I think our - there's two risks and the one that comes from MEC is very minimal. The risks that might be a little greater that would not involve us are when a customer has something coming from overseas for a particular vehicle that they can't get and in which case they want need our component either.So we, but that also represents some opportunity to us as we talk to our customers and remind them of our availability, our capability to very quickly move to support them so that message is in the marketplace as well.

AndrewKaplowitz

Analyst

That's helpful, Bob. And you mentioned the new business and warehouse and package management and some of the other new business that you're getting and that it could lead to the higher energy range in 2020 as it continues to evolve. Given that it does take time to shift to these new products, can you give us more color on your progress? I mean you've talked about this but it does seem like it started to develop. So it's been served in line with your expectations better or how would you look at that.

BobKamphuis

Analyst

Yes. I'll let Ryan address that because he's the one who brought that one home.

RyanRaber

Analyst

Yes. Hey, Andy. That one did progress fairly quickly. There was some legwork that we're always doing and qualifying new leads and as a leadership group identifying those new markets we wanted to enter. So that one probably was faster than usual I'll say in terms of, from the time we engaged and really knew this was going to watch the time that it turned into revenue. So that one has some legs for us and we will continue to develop that opportunity in an ongoing basis. We've got more in the hopper that we hope in the quarters ahead we will be able to talk about as well.

AndrewKaplowitz

Analyst

Ryan, maybe if I could follow up into, that's good. There will be sort of new products and how did they adjusted into maybe like a new product line itself like obviously you've got these end markets that you've talked about, but I guess in the Holy Grail would be that you can take some of the other stuff and make it sort of a new segment. Is that a possibility here over the next couple of years?

RyanRaber

Analyst

I mean we continue to push into a lot of the other that we currently have this would be the one we described in the call today would be uniquely new and something we hadn't participated in before. And some of this Andy goes back to what we talked about is flexible, redeployable, automation that the parts themselves in the way we make these parts isn't uniquely different from agriculture or construction. It's just adding another leg onto the stool utilizing the same capabilities we have and being active in the market opportunistic about the potential clients we are doing work with. And this one really took off pretty quickly for us.

BobKamphuis

Analyst

I guess, Andy, I'll add to Ryan's comment. I think you're asking could we be a product company and certainly we have a broad amount of capabilities within our business to do a lot of different processes and a lot of different components. That is one of the things that we continue to study as we look forward and say is there a product area that we could or should be participating in. We don't have anything to report there or specific guidance to give you on that topic today. But with our capabilities there are certainly a lot of things that we can get involved with.

AndrewKaplowitz

Analyst

Bob, just a quick follow up that as valuations have come down for potential targets and your balance sheet is good. Does that give you more opportunity or you need to be careful here given what the cycle is?

BobKamphuis

Analyst

Yes. I think it's a balance certain amount of care but also a certain amount of, I'll call it deep understanding before we pull the trigger on an opportunity. So we want to be cautious but we also want to be opportunistic and push for this type of growth.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Larry De Maria with William Blair. Please proceed.

LarryDeMaria

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed.

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. So obviously we discuss to reposition the company with regards to commercial vehicle markets and DMP and you're expecting obviously as everyone is a far weaker 2020, we're looking for a bit of a recovery in 2021. So I'm just trying to understand as you reallocate those CV related resources presumably, you'll have slack capacity for some time because 2021 will get back to obviously the peak levels we saw. So what are you doing to reallocate those resources? Because obviously they're going to be slack for a while.

BobKamphuis

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed.

Right. Ryan, do you want to address that.

RyanRaber

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed.

I think, Larry, is part of what we described on the call, and go out and getting new markets and new customers. So there's - we've always talked about potential for takeover work from our competition reconsolidation of the supply base. The opportunities that brings this organically within who we already know. We continue to see outsourcing at OEM levels so as they go through their business cycles, evaluated market dynamics that are out there. We certainly have the broad-based capability to in many ways do what our customers do better just because of our flexibility and the span of work that we do. And then the other piece is these new customers that we are able to bring in as we target new industries and find ways to use the equipment, we have to serve new areas.So that that's something we're constantly looking at as a group we agree that certainly 2021 isn't going to get back to the 2019 peak market. And we want to continue to grow the business.

LarryDeMaria

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed.

And you're specifically moving these assets from truck to other areas or more customers or as I understand are harder to do on truck side.

RyanRaber

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed.

Yes. I mean the harder do on the truck side kind of relates more to the selling cycle itself, Larry, they are necessarily harder to move product into a given machine tool or manufacturing asset. A lot of the commercial truck activity we have today tends to be more in a product redesign at the customer level due to regulatory greenhouse gas emissions et cetera. The product life cycle would be short or outside of CV to get take over work but again the equipment probably with the exception of maybe some of our fuel tanks could run any of the products that we're looking at.

LarryDeMaria

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed.

And if you guys reallocate these resources and as you mentioned OEMs maybe bring some of their access parts into better suppliers like yourselves, is this - we've -with the exception of the destocking in some of the acute end markets, the truck cycle has been pretty well telegraphed obviously. Is this going in line with your expectation that were your thought 6 or 12 months ago or is it going slower? How is it going? Now you're bringing some stuff in but obviously we're still expecting deep decline.

BobKamphuis

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed.

Well, I guess as we've said, Larry, the CV market when we came into 2019, we expected it to start in the first half of 2020 regarding declines and it came four months earlier than that. So that's one of the things that moved the needle but we were ready for it. We know that when these things come here, here's the playbook you use to adjust now that we're a bigger business we have bigger capabilities to look at other opportunities. So some of that can be applied to some of these other markets away from that. I'll say the dedicated fuel tank or exhaust stack type business, if you're making fabricating, brackets or cap components or other things. Those assets can be redeployed pretty readily. So that's what we're working on.

LarryDeMaria

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed.

So with that in mind, is there stuffing your plan that you've presented with the last quarter and today for 2020, is your stuff that's still on the comp or that's more or less bankable business? Because I would think that we're early in the year there's more upside to guess more business and not.

BobKamphuis

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed.

Yes. Our plan and what we've communicated to everyone is very little of that in it. So that would be some upside to our - to get us to the upper end of that range.

LarryDeMaria

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed.

Okay. Thank you. Last question sorry but can you give us a sense of utilization in 2019 and what it was - what it's expected to be 2020? Thank you and good luck this year.

BobKamphuis

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed.

Sure. I would say it was roughly on average somewhere around the 70-ish percent throughout the year, if you took it from heavier utilization to lesser utilization in the second half. So we're somewhere in that probably mid -50s range today.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Steven Fisher of UBS. Please proceed.

StevenFisher

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, guys. Just wanted to follow up on a couple of the earlier questions. In terms of the destocking can you just so we are clear on exactly what the messaging is from the customers and your planning for manufacturing? Is the destocking expected to be completed in the second quarter for commercial vehicles, construction and AG or are there different timelines for the various of those end markets based on what your customers are telling you at this point?

RyanRaber

Analyst

I think there's varying times. They're really the ones to answer that I guess we've got plans that would kind of take us through the first half, but everyone's going to behave a little bit differently.

StevenFisher

Analyst

Okay. But your general expectation is by the end of the first half the destocking is done?

RyanRaber

Analyst

Yes. I'd say in a general sense there's some nuances with small AG versus large AG, rental type construction equipment versus larger earthmoving and mining. So there's a little variability and how we would answer that but I'd say in a general sense yes.

StevenFisher

Analyst

Okay. And then I know, Andy, was asking about the coronavirus before. So are your customers actually talking to you yet about kind of curtailing any of the production because they wouldn't need your parts yet or is that too soon?

BobKamphuis

Analyst

It's too soon to say and but certainly a topic of discussion and follow-up testing their supply base to say what they're going to be my problems. And so it's a - it'll continue to evolve, I think.

RyanRaber

Analyst

I just want to may be adding something there, Steve, so we are in discussions just to understand from the demand side. I think this is another great thing when Bob mentioned we are US based production, US based ship facilities. There are in some cases where this works to our favor that customers have risks that need to be mitigated. Certainly, we sit here today with available capacity. We are in discussions. I'll say that the kind of in a rapid fashion the solution to some of those problems that might exist out there. So while there's a general concern in the market for us doesn't impact their unit shipments, and it also presents an opportunity to kind of do what we do. And that's support them and be here domestically to support the factories here locally.

StevenFisher

Analyst

That make sense and then lastly, I think, Todd, you may have mentioned this but just wondering what is it that's driving your capital spending to be lower than expected?

ToddButz

Analyst

Well. We had a robust year in 2019; some of those assets became available sooner than expected. We put them in place. So it's really a two-year plan was around $40 million and that's still consistent. It was just - it wasn't front-end loaded in 2019 and certainly that's playing into some of the benefits we are seeing when I talked earlier about over 250 basis point improvement that new technology and automation is really yielding the benefits we expected. It's just at under absorbing position just offsets it. And kind of masks it a bit right and again I think we're well positioned when volume is returned to really see that incremental margin and then mid-20s that we return.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Steven Volkman of Jeffries. Please proceed.

StephenVolkmann

Analyst

Thanks guys. So a couple follow-ups, if I could. First, Ryan, just if I came to you and said, I need a new whatever widget bracket, how quickly could you actually start delivering? I'm just trying to get a sense of how quickly we might see some impact of people looking for sources closer to home or second sources or something.

RyanRaber

Analyst

Yes. I mean in the most expedient fashion, Steve, we literally turn stuff around in a matter of days. I'll qualify that a little bit with do we need production tooling or not, but keep in mind one of the parts of our value proposition is offering a prototype low volume, reverse engineering type capability where we employ some pretty sophisticated welders and engineers on staff to kind of be the blacksmiths in the business to get done what they need. So in a really extreme case a matter of days we can turn around some pretty simple stuff. Again in a kind of normal course you'd run a program, I'd say 8 to 12weeks in just kind of normal course.But in unique circumstances there are definitely are ways to expedite the product launch. And we certainly would be willing and we've done in the past to react in that speed.

StephenVolkmann

Analyst

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then maybe for, Todd, I'm curious if there's anything we should be sort of thinking about with respect to some of these other items that go into adjusted EBITDA. So I don't know gain sharing or other income or any of those things. Is there anything we should be kind of baking in as we try to model 2020?

ToddButz

Analyst

No. I mean, in fact, I think that variance even in adjusted EBITDA will narrow considerably now that we're through the IPO. And a lot of those one-time costs are very much behind us. We have some trickle in and some other unique costs, but it's very modest maybe a few hundred thousands. So in a general sense those unique items that affected and impacted us last year. I don't foresee reoccurring and so I think those items you are describing really won't impact us.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Bob Kamphuis, Chairman, President and CEO for any closing remarks.

Bob Kamphuis

Analyst

I'll just close by saying thank you for your time today. We'll look forward to continuing to update you on our progress in the months and quarters ahead. Thanks for your time.

Operator

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.