Greg Marcus
Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead
Thanks, Doug. I am going to begin my remarks where Doug left off, discussing our balance sheet. This is my first chance to comment on the actions we took in late September to further strengthen our balance sheet and liquidity and I think it will be helpful to explain our thinking. We have an 85 year history of prudently managing our balance sheet. As Doug shared earlier, we entered this crisis from a position of strength with a debt to capitalization ratio of 26%. That conservative approach to our balance sheet has proved to be particularly important during this current environment. We always have been and will continue to be thoughtful and opportunistically managing our balance sheet. Immediately, upon the onset of the pandemic, we went to our banks and increased our liquidity by a 364 day term loan, closing on that financing in April 2020. With a significant number of unknowns in those first months of the pandemic, we believe adding the short-term borrowing was the prudent thing to do. While we now have the majority of our theaters and hotels open, there remains uncertainty regarding the pace of the recovery. We continue to be confident that both our businesses will recover, but our thinking always has been and always will be long-term focused. With our long-term focus in mind, we also have – always had the philosophy as our debt portfolio should match our asset base. Our assets consists primarily of fixed and long-lived assets and thus we’ve always tried to have a significant portion of our debt fixed and long as well. With the 364 day term loan scheduled to mature in April of 2021, we were presented with an opportunity to amend our current bank agreements, extend our term loan by another five months, and adjust our covenants to provide for future near-term and medium term uncertainty in our businesses. A key component of amending our bank agreements was opportunistically raising attractive capital that would ultimately replace the short-term term loan. With that in mind, we believe the issuance of convertible unsecured notes was the most attractive capital raising alternative at that time that have the following advantages. We can effectively replace short-term borrowings with five year junior capital. Five years is a long time and with minimal debt maturities before 2025 it has given us a lot of flexibility and time for the recovery to take hold. Cash interest payments will be significantly lower than other long-term options. We were able to size the issuance appropriately, particularly for a company our size. As an example, high yield debt, another long-term option many borrowers including some of our peers have availed themselves typically requires a minimum sizing in the $300 million range. But purchasing a cap call in conjunction with our issuance, we were able to effectively increase the strike price of the convertible from 22.5% of our closing stock price to a 100% of our closing stock price, significantly reducing any dilution concerns that would typically arise from a convertible issuance. In addition, we have the option to settle these notes at maturity with cash, equity or a combination thereof providing the further ability to reduce any actual dilution of maturity. I think those last two points are particularly important and may not have been completely understood by the market. While we have the options settling the convertible notes at maturity in any combination of cash and/or stock, it is our stated intent to settle the principal amount of the convertible notes in cash and only settle any of the in the money portion of the notes with stock. Our cap call transactions effectively increase the strike price of the convertible notes to $17.98, $18 almost which significantly reduces the potential dilution arising from these notes. We’ve included a table in our latest investor presentation, which shows what the actual dilution would be depending upon our actual share price at maturity five years from now. Building on the impact of the cap calls and the assumption that we pay the principal in cash, for example, at a $20 future stock price, dilution is estimated to be only approximately 3% at a $25 future price, dilution climbs to a very modest 8.2% level. And if the price is higher than that, while the dilution would increase, I think we will all agree that everyone will be pretty happy. You can find this presentation in the Investor Relations section of our website at www.marcuscorp.com. You can be confident that we will continue to prudently manage our balance sheet in the future in order that only when we come out of this current environment in a strong position, but that we will also will be in a position to grow and thrive once more in the years ahead. With that. I’ll turn my attention to our operating businesses focusing my remarks on where we are today, what we have done to-date and are continuing to do to manage through this crisis and what some of our plans are for the future. As you can imagine, there are lot of unknowns yet about what the future months will look like. So our plans will continue to evolve as the situation unfolds. I said this last quarter, but it is worth repeating in this rapidly changing, truly unprecedented environment, there was one thing that has not changed and will not change. Our priority as it has been throughout our history is the safety and well-being of our associates, customers, and communities. This has guided everything we have done so far and will guide us in the weeks and months ahead, as well. I continue to be thankful for our experienced and dedicated leadership team throughout our organization that continue to work day and night developing and executing strategies that we believe will get us through this crisis and put us in a strong position for continued growth over the long-term. And as we have brought many of our associates back, they too have worked extremely hard under very difficult circumstances in order to continue to provide an outstanding experience for our guests. I am so proud of each and every one of our associates. So let’s start with our hotels and since they are further along in the reopening process. Doug shared some of the numbers with you including the fact that the data suggests we outperformed both the industry and our competitive sets this quarter. It certainly wasn’t a good quarter from any historical sense, but frankly it was better than we expected when we first started reopening our hotels with very little advanced bookings in place. As our press release notes, the vast majority of our customers this quarter came from the drive-to-leisure market. It wasn’t that we didn’t have any group business. As the summer unfolded, we did have weddings in several locations and the return of Major League Baseball helped our Pfister hotel. But the majority of our customers were transient leisure customers who are just looking to get away and change that scenery after months of staying home. As a result, not surprising weekend business was the strongest in properties like the Grand Geneva Resort and Spa and Timber Ridge Lodge performed the best among our hotels as they are well-suited for families looking to get away. Golf revenues at the Grand Geneva for example were actually higher than they were last year. An overall 37% occupancy rate is nothing to get too excited about compared to what we are used to during our third quarter. But it certainly justified our decision to reopen our hotels. As we shared with you last quarter, in many ways reopening our hotels was a mathematical exercise. We made the bet we’d be better off opened and closed and have proved to be a good bet. We were particularly pleased that our ADR held relatively strong during the quarter. Admittedly, it’s hard not to wonder what the quarter might have been like in a non-COVID world with the Democratic National Convention and the Rider Cup, but it was not to be. It also is important to note that the customer response to our new operating protocols has been very positive. Once again, I can’t say enough about the wonderful job all our hotel associates have done as we welcome guests back to our properties. We are also particularly pleased with our recent announcement that Saint Kate the Arts Hotel is reopening this week. We’d reopened the first floor common areas including the bar and pizza restaurant in late July and now we are reopening the rooms. This amazing hotel has earned an incredible number of awards since it opened last summer including most recently being named the number six top hotel in the Midwest and top hotel in Milwaukee by Condé Nast readers. It is fair to say, it is now Milwaukee’s most recognized hotel with the Saint Kate reopening all eight of our company-owned hotels will be open. Looking to future periods, overall occupancy in the U.S. has slowly increased since the initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March. Higher end hotels like the ones we generally operate have been impacted more than lower end hotels. Most current demand continues to come from the drive-to-leisure segment. Most organizations implemented travel bans at the onset of the pandemic and are currently only allowing essential travel, which will likely limit business travel in the near term. Our company-owned hotels have experienced a significant decrease in group bookings for the remainder of fiscal 2020, compared to the same period last year. As of the date of this report, our Group room revenue bookings for fiscal 2021, commonly referred to in the hotels and resorts industry as group pace, is running slightly behind where we were last year at this time for fiscal 2020. And a large portion of that decline is because last year’s group bookings included bookings in anticipation in Milwaukee hosting the DNC, Democratic National Convention in July 2020. Banquet and catering revenue pace for fiscal 2021 is also running behind where we were last year at this time for fiscal 2020. But not as much as group room revenues due to impart to increases in wedding bookings. Many of our canceled group bookings due to COVID-19 are re-booking for future dates, excluding one-time events that could not rebook for future dates such as those connected to the DNC. However, some group bookings for the first half of fiscal 2021 have subsequently canceled or postponed their event and we cannot predict to what extent any of our hotel bookings will be canceled or rescheduled due to COVID-19 or otherwise. We were pleased to see the Rider Cup reschedule for 2021 and it is contributing to our 2021 group pace. Looking further out, the Wisconsin District just approved financing for the expansion of its convention center here in Milwaukee. The expansion is currently expected to be completed in late 2023, or early 2024. Forecasting with future RevPAR growth our decline will be during the 18 to 24 months is very difficult at this time. The non-group booking arrival is very short with most bookings occurring within three days of arrival, making even short-term forecast of future RevPAR growth very difficult. Hotel revenues have historically tracked very closely with traditional macroeconomic statistics such as the gross domestic product. So we will be monitoring the economic environment very closely. After pair shock to the system such as 9/11, and the 2008 financial crisis, hotel demand took longer to recover than other components of the economy. Conversely, we now anticipate that hotel supply growth will be limited for the foreseeable future, which can be beneficial for our existing hotels. Most industry experts believe the pace of recovery will be steady, but relatively slow. We continue to believe it will be very important to have our marketing message focused on the health and safety of our associates and guests. Overall, we generally expect our revenue trends to track or exceed the overall industry trends for our segment of the industry, particularly in our respective markets. Regardless of how this unfolds, I am confident that our hotel division President, Michael Evans and his outstanding team will effectively manage our hotel operations during these turbulent times. Our associates are working tirelessly, so that every guest can rest easy knowing that they are receiving the highest standards of service and cleanliness while still enjoying the best our award-winning hotels and resorts have to offer. So let's shift to our theater division. Doug went over the numbers with you. And since we were closed for the majority of the quarter, the numbers were pretty similar to the second quarter, obviously challenging. In the midst of this unique time however, there were some encouraging signs during the quarter that bode well for us in future periods. First off, we are thrilled with our customer reaction to the new protocols we’ve put in place. To get 96% of the Group people to agree on anything is virtually impossible these days, and that is what percentage of our first loyalty members told us they had a safe and comfortable experience at our theaters. All the credit goes to our leadership team for developing smart and effective new operating protocols and to our managers and theater associates for executing on them and providing a great experience for our guests. We expect policies and guidelines will continue to evolve with time and will be assessed and updated on an ongoing basis. Our goal continues to be to build consumer confidence and trust as quickly as possible. We noted a process, but with multiple help and we are off to a good start. We also didn’t know for sure what customers’ behavior would be once they arrived, what they adapt to the new protocols. With the use of our industry-leading technology to order more of their concessions and food and beverage online, what they even buy concessions, the answer to these questions was a resounding yes. And we are very pleased with the increases we experienced in our concession revenues per person. As our press release is noting, we reopened 80% of our theaters by August 28 in time for several new films including Tenet on Labor Day weekend. Unfortunately, with restrictions still in place in New York and California, particularly, not long afterward studios started changing the new release schedule once again. Thus, like I mentioned in my hotel remarks, it once again became a little bit of a math exercise. We want to be open, but being open has a certain level of fixed cost associated with it. So, we also don’t want to lose more money being opened and closed. As a result, we made the difficult decision to reclose 17 theaters in early October and reduced our operating hours and operating days at our remaining open theaters. Right now, our theaters are open on Tuesdays, Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays, which better aligns with current demand. The industry received some good news a couple of weeks ago when it was announced that New York State would began reopening theaters. That allowed us to reopen our movie theater our Movie Tavern location in Syracuse. And as an indication of pent-up demand, that location was the number one theater in the country for the new film Honest Thief when it first reopened. We since reopened three theaters in Nebraska, as well, mean that as I speak to today with 59 theaters opened representing approximately 66% of our circuit. So now it really comes down to two inter-related topics, both necessary to increase customer demand for going to the movies. First and foremost, we need new films to be released. We’ve seen first-hand that when new films come out, our attendance increases. And in fact, when we pulled our guests, our loyalty club, 60% of them said the reason they weren’t coming was because there was – there were no movies to see. Attendance at the last couple of weeks has been the best we’ve experienced since the first two weeks of reopening and it’s not a coincidence that they coincide with the fact that we are showing an increased number of new films, as well as an increased variety of films shown. We do best when all the film genres are represented. We continue to have regular conversations with all our studio partners regarding the need for them to commit to firm release dates and continue to release new films theatrically. Having said that, we also need the country on an incremental basis to get the pandemic under control, not only will that increase consumer willingness to go to the movies, but it will further encourage the studios to follow through and release their films with confidence that there will be a willing audience ready to attend and see their content the way it was meant to be seen. It is particularly hearting to take a look at what is going on in Asia. The Chinese box office is coming back and a recent new release in Japan just shattered the record for the biggest opening in Japanese history after initially struggling to attract audiences. It was an anime film. It’s at $44 million in its first week and that compared to give you an idea of the relative performance to Frozen 2, which took $30 million. So it was a significant outperformance. There are multiple films still scheduled to be released during the remaining two months of the year that may generate substantial box office interest. We listed some of those films in our press release. The anticipated film slate for 2021 which will also now include multiple films originally scheduled for 2020 is currently expecting to be very strong. And despite some continued experimentation with alternative releasing strategies, which we believe are generally directly related to the current COVID-19 environment. The fact remains that the vast majority of films have been delayed to future periods. A clear indication, in our view of the importance of the theatrical experience of the studios, they seek to monetize their content. Just as we’ve had to adapt our plans in the recent months, we recognize that we will need to be prepared for new challenges and opportunities in the weeks and months ahead. While I won’t share the exact numbers when we first began reopening theaters, we did the math and we believed we need a certain attendance level in order to perform better than being closed. As we manage through the past two months, we found additional ways to reduce fixed cost and operate at lower levels of attendance. In other words, our math has improved and we have 66% of our theaters open today, because we think it is better to be opened, better for the customers’ sake, better for the associates’ sake and better for the overall business sake. And of course we have an advantage that Doug alluded to earlier. We own the majority of our theaters, reducing our monthly fixed cost and making it easier for us to stay open. There is always the possibility that the film schedule could change again or that we could renewed restrictions from select local or state jurisdictions, but I am certain that Rolando Rodriguez and his incredibly talented team will be prepared to adapt, and manage us through this reopening process and ultimately position us to once again lead the industry into what we believe will be a very bright future. And while I am on it, I want to publicly congratulate Rolando and recently being elected Chairman of the Board for our industry trade group, The National Association of Theater Owners or NATO. It is tremendous honor for Rolando and a recognition for his leadership, not only for us but the entire industry. In conclusion, in this continually changing environment, you can rest assured that we are constantly reviewing the situation in both our businesses and making changes to plan as warranted. Our company is built for challenging times like this. Our leadership team, managers and associates have stepped up to the challenging ways that go way above and beyond and for that, we are most grateful. We also continue to appreciate the confidence and support of our lenders and the investment community, during this challenging time and always. With that, at this time, Doug and I will be happy to open the call up for any questions you may have.