Dennis Story
Analyst · SunTrust
Thanks, Eddie. Overall, our growth, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet metrics continue to be solid in our business transition. Third quarter total revenue was $162.3 million, with 14% organic growth over prior year. Excluding FX, total revenue was up 15%. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.51. GAAP earnings per share was $0.42 with stock-based compensation accounting for the difference between adjusted and GAAP EPS. License revenue for the quarter was $15.5 million, nearly double the $8 million target discussed in our Q2 call. The driver of the large Q3 beat was primarily timing related as we signed new deals in the third quarter versus our expectations of the fourth quarter and early 2020. For the fourth quarter of 2019, we are targeting approximately $7 million to $8 million as license revenue mix continues to transition to cloud subscriptions. For full year 2019, we are raising our license estimate range to $47 million to $48 million. Our previous range was $38 million to $42 million. Q3 cloud revenue was $14.2 million, up 121% versus Q3 2018, driven by robust customer demand for our cloud solutions, with 70% of our cloud deals and bookings driven by strong WMS demand, very positive. In the quarter, 60% of the bookings generated came from a healthy combination of net new customers to Manhattan and net new product sales to existing installed base customers. As Eddie mentioned, early in Q3, we successfully converted a large, long-standing customer from a managed services contract to a cloud contract, raising our quarterly cloud revenue run rate by approximately $3 million. The impact lowers our services growth rate, but in turn, positively impacts our cloud run rate, which we are reflecting both in our go-forward guidance. For the fourth quarter of 2019, we are estimating our cloud revenue to be about $15 million, up 121% over the prior year on solid demand for our cloud solutions. For full year 2019, we're raising our cloud revenue recognized range from our previous estimate of $42 million to $44 million to approximately $46 million, representing year-over-year growth of about 100%. For total software, representing cloud and license revenue combined, we are raising our 2019 full year estimate to $93 million versus our previous estimate of $83 million, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 36%. Regarding bookings, as we've discussed, remaining performance obligation, or RPO, is the leading proxy of our cloud bookings performance and represents the value of contractual obligations required to be performed, otherwise referred to as unearned revenue or bookings. Our RPO for the quarter totaled $152 million, up 137% over prior year and up 26% sequentially over Q2 2019. This excludes the Q3 government contract conversion previously discussed. For Manhattan, this disclosed value represents our cloud bookings value of unearned revenue under noncancelable contracts greater than one year. Contracts with a noncancelable term of one year or less are excluded from the reported RPO amount. One last point on license and cloud. Our performance continues to depend on the number and relative value of large deals we close in any quarter. As large license deals remain important, our markets continue to shift towards subscription models. While this is positive, deal sizes may be slightly smaller as subscription revenue is recognized over time. We also retain appropriate caution around slowed decision-making by some clients and prospects, particularly retailers and potential global macro and geopolitical events that could impact business investment cycles. Shifting to maintenance. Revenue for the quarter totaled $37.8 million, up 2%, versus the prior year on strong maintenance cash collections. Retention rates remained strong at greater than 95-plus percent. For 2019, we are estimating maintenance revenue to be about $147 million, roughly flat versus 2018. We estimate Q4 2019 maintenance revenue to be about $36 million. Overall, we expect that our maintenance results will be influenced by perpetual license deals closed during the year, existing customer conversions to cloud, retention rates and timing of cash collection. Turning to services. Consulting revenue for the quarter totaled $91.6 million, up 9% over Q3 2018 on persistent global demand. For Q4, we are forecasting a 6% sequential services revenue decline from Q3 due to retail peak seasonality as customers idle implementation work. We are targeting Q4 revenue growth of approximately 1% to 3% over prior year with a midpoint target of $86 million. For the full year, we estimate services revenue to be about $360 million. Our consolidated subscription, maintenance and services margin for the quarter was 50.4%, driven by increased head count investment in cloud and consulting services. For 2019, we expect Q4 subscription, maintenance and services margin to be about 49% due to the combination of on-boarding of new hires, customers idling implementations during the retail holiday peak season and higher cost of compute, reflecting the seasonality impact of retail peak busy season as well. We are targeting full year subscription, maintenance and services margin to be about 50%, which reflects our investment in cloud operations, performance-based compensation and increased services capacity to meet demand. Turning to operating income and margin. Q3 adjusted operating income totaled $43.1 million, with an adjusted operating margin of 26.6%. For Q4 2019, we are estimating adjusted operating income of $26 million to $27 million and adjusted operating margin of 17.8% to 18.4%. Our license to cloud revenue transition combined with continued hiring across the organization, customers idling implementations as I mentioned previously for Q4 retail peak and seasonal impact of cloud compute costs for retail customers are included in our operating margin estimates. For full year 2019, our adjusted operating income estimate is $141 million to $142 million, up from our previous estimate of $125 million to $129 million. For the full year 2019, we estimate that our adjusted operating margin will be in a range of 23% to 23.2%. Our Q3 adjusted effective income tax rate was 24.5%, and we are estimating a 24.5% effective tax rate for both Q4 and full year 2019. Regarding our capital structure. In Q3 2019, we repurchased approximately 430,000 shares worth $36 million. Last week, our Board approved replenishing our repurchase authority limit to a total of $50 million. And for Q4 and full year 2019, we are estimating 65.3 million diluted shares outstanding, which assumes no buyback activity. Turning to cash. Yes, we closed the quarter with cash investments of $114 million and zero debt. Our current deferred revenue balance totaled $97 million, up 19% from December 31, 2018, on maintenance and cloud billings. Q3 cash flow from operations totaled $40 million, and year-to-date operating cash flow is $112 million, up 9% over prior year. Year-to-date, capital expenditures totaled $11.4 million, reflecting significant facilities investment to accommodate business growth. For full year 2019, we estimate capital expenditures to be approximately $14 million to $15 million. Now I'll wrap up with our updated 2019 guidance and a preliminary look at 2020, then turn it back to Eddie for closing comments. So for revenue, we're raising our 2019 total revenue guidance from our previous range of $598 million to $604 million to $610 million to $614 million, targeting total revenue growth of 9% to 10%. Our previous guidance targeted year-over-year growth at 7% to 8%. We expect Q4 2019 total revenue growth in the range of approximately 1% to 3% versus the prior year, reflecting retail peak seasonality impact. For earnings per share, we are raising our 2019 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.63 to $1.65. Our previous range was $1.46 to $1.50. Our GAAP EPS guidance is $1.26 to $1.27. Additionally, we estimate our Q4 2019 adjusted EPS to be approximately $0.31. For operating margin, we're targeting a full year adjusted operating margin range of 23% to 23.2% and GAAP operating margin range of 17.7% to 17.9%. Our margin objectives reflect our business transition to cloud, continuing to ramp in 2019, including related incremental investments with the objective of driving long-term sustainable growth. As we look towards next year and beyond, our focus remains on sustainably growing our subscription base while making organic investments to position ourselves for long-term growth and profitability. While we are in our annual planning phase, we are going to provide some preliminary targets for 2020, bearing in mind our ongoing revenue mix shift as we transition to a cloud-first company, coupled with the growth investments we continue to make across R&D, sales and marketing, IT and facilities. Furthermore, as is customary, we expect to provide 2020 guidance during our fourth quarter call and full year 2019 earnings call. For our preliminary 2020 targets, all year-over-year growth rates are pegged to the midpoint of our full year 2019 guidance for the relevant target. For total revenue, from the midpoint of our 2019 total revenue guidance of approximately $612 million, our estimated range for 2020 total revenue is $643 million to $658 million, representing top line growth of 5% to 7.5%. For adjusted earnings per share, our estimated range for 2020 is $1.50 to $1.57. On a total software basis, again, license plus cloud, we are targeting $100 million to $110 million revenue range, representing 7% to 18% year-over-year growth. We expect our 2020 software revenue mix of license and cloud to shift from about 50-50 to about 30% license, 70% cloud. As we've noted, license revenue will continue to decline as customer demand for our cloud solutions increase. We are currently targeting approximately $25 million to $30 million in license revenue in 2020. For cloud revenue recognized, we are estimating approximately $75 million to $80 million, representing 62% to 72% growth. As we scale our cloud business, our view is that the more success we have with subscription adoption, the impact of the revenue mix shift from license to cloud on our near-term income statement results will be effectively masking a significant level of underlying value creation. For maintenance, we're targeting to be flat to down 2% year-over-year on lower license revenue and cloud conversions, resulting in a range of $144 million to $146 million. For services against record 2019 comps, we are estimating $380 million to $389 million in revenue or 7% to 8% growth with a midpoint value of $387 million. Regarding adjusted operating margin, with our ongoing transition to cloud, we are targeting an adjusted operating margin of 20.0% to 20.05%. We expect our adjusted operating margin to trough at around 20% in 2020, subject to timing of business investment. And finally, our effective tax rate is expected to remain the same at approximately 24.5% subject to U.S. federal, state and foreign tax legislation changes. And for diluted shares, we're projecting 65.3 million shares per quarter, which, of course, assumes no buyback activity in Q4 2019 or for the full year 2020. That covers the financial update. Back to Eddie for some closing comments.