Dennis Story
Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open
Sounds good, Eddie. Thank you. So, please note, unless otherwise specified, I’ll be discussing non-GAAP results, which we term adjusted results and additional revenue growth percentages are on an apples-to-apples basis for equivalent year-over-year comparisons, adjusted for the ASC 606 impact to hardware revenue and the 2017 results. Please refer to our supplemental schedules in today’s earnings release for full details of our 606 adoption, including year-over-year comps. So, we reported Q1 total revenue of $131 million, down $8 million or 5% over prior year on lower license revenue. License revenue was $7.6 million, down $6 million against our target objective for the quarter and down 64% versus $21.3 million posted in Q1 2017. The lower than expected performance was driven by Americas large deal pushes in Q2 that Eddie mentioned, our cloud subscription transition, and a record Q1 2017 Europe license comp of $9.4 million. Cloud revenue was $4.5 million, up 200% over 2017 and up 40% sequentially. Recurring software revenue that’s cloud revenue plus maintenance was 31% of total revenue in the quarter. Quarterly maintenance revenue increased 9% or $3 million over prior year. Consulting services revenue was down $1 million and hardware revenue was up $1 million over prior year. Geographically, for Q1, total revenue, Americas was down 3%; Europe was down 18% off a tough 2017 license comp; and APAC was down slightly at 3% on lower services revenue. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was $0.37 versus $0.42, down $0.05 or 12% over prior year. The impacts of lower license and investments in our cloud transition were partially offset by $0.08 of EPS, driven by our lower effective tax rate, other income, and share buyback program. Our GAAP earnings per share was $0.33 in the quarter compared to $0.40 in Q1 2017 with the difference between adjusted earnings per share and GAAP EPS being the impact of stock-based compensation. Q1 regional cloud recognized revenue splits were $4.1 million in the Americas and $0.4 million in Europe. Just a reminder, with increasing subscription revenue, we view the natural deferral of revenue, earnings and cash flows associated with the subscription transition as a positive. Perpetual license revenue splits by region were $3.5 million in the Americas, $1.8 million in Europe and $2.3 million in APAC. Taking a conservative approach, we are maintaining our 2018 annual guidance for total revenue, adjusted EPS, and adjusted operating margin. Barring any major negative global macro event that disrupts business investment cycles, we are shifting our weighting across our revenue lines, lowering our license estimated range from our previous estimate of $58.5 million to $59.5 million to $53.5 million to $54.5 million for the year. As Eddie mentioned, we are on pace to double our cloud revenue, delivering about $21 million with year-over-year growth at 100 plus percent. As a reminder, this line includes all subscription, hosting and infrastructure-as-a-service revenue from our existing and new software-as-a-service and hosted customers. The shift in license to cloud revenue mix will result in a year-over-year license revenue decline of 25% to 26%, pegging the midpoint of 2018 license revenue at $54 million, with the corresponding license gross margin of about 91%. For Q2, we estimate our cloud revenue recognized to be about $5.2 million. We estimate the target midpoint of total license and cloud revenue combined to be about $20.5 million. We believe our Manhattan Active Solutions will deliver greater value to customers, enabling Manhattan to drive sustainable, long-term growth and profitability. As mentioned on our previous call, for 2018, we are not providing annual contract value and annualized recurring revenue metrics. Our objective is to achieve a full-year operationally, to provide a beneficial comp base line for year-over-year comparisons in forward forecasting. Regarding license, our performance continues to depend on a number and relative value of large deals we close in any quarter. While large deals remain important, we expect the mix to continue to shift towards subscription models in 2018 and beyond. While this is positive, deal sizes may be a bit smaller as revenue is recognized over time and product components are also easier to add over time in contrast to one and done enterprise deals. We also retained some caution around slow decision-making by some clients, particularly American retailers. Now, shifting to maintenance. Maintenance revenue for the quarter totaled $36.4 million, increasing 9% on strong cash collections, new license revenue and strong retention rates of greater than 90%. As a reminder, our maintenance renewal contracts become effective once we have collected cash from the customer. So, timing of cash collections can cause inter-period lumpiness from quarter-to-quarter. For 2018, we are estimating growth in maintenance revenue of about 1% to 3% with the midpoint estimate for full-year of $146.5 million. We estimate Q2 maintenance growth to be 1% to 3% as well with the midpoint of $36.7 million. Q2 and full-year results will depend somewhat on the timing of perpetual license deals closed during the quarter, as well as the level and timing of any existing customer conversions to cloud and the resulting retention rates and timing of cash collection. On to services revenue. For the quarter, services revenue totaled $78.8 million, down 1% compared to prior year and up 2% sequentially from Q4 2017 on improvements in the Americas and strong growth in Europe. Americas was down 2% quarter-over-quarter and up 3% sequentially. These positive trends are significant. With demand and pipeline increasing, Americas services is poised for our potential return to growth. Europe services revenue grew 20% over prior year with strong demand outpacing supply. APAC services were down 36% off a small base, driven by customer project delays. Finally, while the rate of decline in the Americas is tapered significantly from 2017, until we see concrete signs of a rebound, we will continue to be cautious in our near-term projections. For 2018, we are estimating consulting services revenue to decline between 3% to 2% with the midpoint estimate of $318.5 million versus our previous decline estimate of 4% to 2%. For Q2, we’re estimating a decline of 6% to 5% with the midpoint of $80.5 million. Moving to consolidated subscription, maintenance and service. Margins for the quarter were 53.7%, 370 basis points ahead of our expectations of about 50% that we alluded to in our call, our Q4 2017 call. The improvement was driven by cloud and maintenance revenue growth, strong consulting services productivity and capacity management. For 2018, we expect full-year services margins to be in the range of 53.2% to 53.3% versus our previous estimate of 52.9% to 53.1% and our Q2 range to be 53.3% to 53.4%. As discussed on our Q4 2017 call, our services gross margin reflects our investment in cloud operations, our performance-based compensation reset and our annual compensation increases. Turning to operating income and margins. Our Q1 operating income totaled $32 million with an operating margin of 24.7%. We estimate our Q2 operating margin to be in the range of 25.5% to 26%. That covers the operating results. Moving on to taxes. Our adjusted effective income tax rate was 24.5% for Q1. While the full benefit of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is yet to be fully vetted, we are raising our 2018 provisional effective income tax rate to 24.5%, which includes the estimated impact of state, local and international tax expense. We’re qualifying the rate provisional as our interpretation of the new U.S. tax law could change, based on final tax code interpretations from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. We continue to work closely with our external tax advisors to arrive at our effective rate estimates. Regarding capital structure. We reduced our common shares outstanding about 1.5% in Q1 2018, buying back 1.2 million shares, totaling $50 million. And last week, our Board approved replenishing our repurchases authority limit to a total of $50 million. For 2018, we’re estimating about 67.2 million diluted shares per quarter and 67.5 million for full-year, which assumes no additional buyback activity in 2018. Turning to cash. We closed the quarter with cash and investments totaling $119 million and zero debt. For the quarter, cash flow operations totaled $51 million. Capital expenditures were $2 million in the quarter. For 2018, we estimate capital expenditures to be in the range of $10 million to $12 million. That covers the Q1 highlights. Now, move to guidance. Just a reminder, our guidance approach will continue to be annual with total revenue, EPS and operating margin. The more short-term success we have with the subscription adoption, the weaker our near-term reported income statement results will be, effectively masking the significant underlying value being created. Prudently, we remain cautious regarding the American retail environment, the global macro environment given geopolitical and economic volatility risk, and finally, our cloud transition. So, for revenue. We are maintaining total revenue guidance in the range of $546 million to $558 million with the midpoint estimate of $552 million. Apples-to-apples adjusting 2017 for the 606 hardware impact of about $32 million, we expect total revenue to decline by 3% to 1%. Recurring revenue mix. Cloud and maintenance is targeted at approximately 30% of total 2018 revenue. We also expect a first half, second half split of about 49% to 51%, respectively. We expect Q2 2018 total revenue to decline 5% to 3% with the midpoint estimate of $140.5 million adjusted for the 606 hardware impact for apples-to-apples comparison. For EPS, we’re maintaining our estimated range for 2018 adjusted EPS as a $1.48 to $1.52 with the midpoint estimate of about $1.51. And our GAAP EPS range remains the same at $1.23 to $1.27 with an estimated first half, second half split of about 52% to 48%, respectively. Additionally, we estimate that our Q2 2018 EPS will decline between 20% and 16% with the midpoint estimate of $0.41. The $0.25 difference between full-year adjusted and GAAP EPS is primarily the after tax impact of stock-based comp. On to operating margins. With the business transitioning to cloud and continuing to ramp in 2018, including related incremental strategic investments and combined with the previously mentioned performance-based compensation reset, we are targeting a full-year adjusted operating margin range of 24% to 24.3% and a GAAP operating margin range of 20% to 20.4%. The difference between adjusted and GAAP operating margin is primarily the pre-tax impact of stock-based compensation. As previously mentioned, we estimate our Q2 2018 operating margin will come in between 25.5% and 26%. Finally, we remain committed to our long-term aspirations we discussed with you all in our Q4 call. Our focus is on building the subscription base at a responsible rate that returns Manhattan to our expected and sustainable top-line growth with a top quartile operating margin comp profile comparable to our software peers. With that said, our long-term aspirations remain unchanged from our previous call and are as follows beyond 2018. We’re targeting a return to revenue growth by late 2019, early 2020. From the midpoint of our 2018, total revenue guidance we are targeting a 4% to 6% CAGR through 2022. From the midpoint of our 2018 cloud subscription guidance, we are targeting a 72% to 82% CAGR through 2022. From the midpoint of our 2018 recurring revenue, cloud plus maintenance, we are targeting to achieve a 42% to 47% recurring revenue mix, as a percent of total revenue in 2022. By 2022, we project our all-in gross margin to be in the range of 58% to 60%. We expect our annual gross margins to trough in the 57% to 57.5% range, based on the timing of our growth investments in 2019 to 2020. By 2022, we project our operating margin to be in the range of 25% to 26%. We expect our margins to trough in the 20% to 22% range, again based on the timing of our growth investments in 2019 to 2020. On our free cash flow to net income ratio for 2018 forward, we expect to trend in line with our historical comps of about 1.1 to 1.2. That covers the financial update. Back to Eddie for some closing comments.