Dennis B. Story
Analyst · Raymond James
Thanks Eddie. I will cover our results for Q4 and full year 2012, then review our 2013 guidance and then turn the call back to Eddie for our business update. For the quarter, we delivered total -- record total revenue of $95.4 million, increasing 14% and adjusted earnings per share of $0.71, grew 18% over Q4 2011 on 19% Services revenue growth. Also Q4 2012 GAAP diluted earnings per share was $0.63, increasing 26% over Q4 2011. Our Q4 results capped off a record 2012 year in revenue, earnings per share and operating cash flow. Full year total revenue was $376.2 million, growing 14% over 2011. Total revenue growth by region was solid, with Americas up 13%; EMEA, 23%; and APAC, 19%. Adjusted earnings per share was $2.82, and GAAP earnings per share was $2.56, both increasing 22%; on license and services revenue growth of 13% and 16%, respectively. And operating cash flow increased 35% for the year, totaling $75.3 million. Excluding currency impact, full year total revenue increased 15%, and adjusted earnings per share grew 18%. Foreign exchange rate variances positively impacted Q4 adjusted earnings per share growth by $0.01 and full year, $0.08. License revenue for the quarter was $14.4 million, down 13% compared to $16.6 million in Q4 2011. And as Eddie mentioned, full year license revenue was $61.5 million, increasing 13% over 2011's revenue of $54.2 million. While Q4 license revenue of $14.4 million was a solid-base license quarter, with the strong deal activity in the quarter, we were disappointed to see a number of large deals push into 2013. Nevertheless, we continue to experience solid activity in our target markets, and the demand environment continues to be quite positive. So we remain cautious and optimistic. Turning to Services revenue. Q4 was $72.3 million, up 19% over Q4 2011's $60.6 million. For the year, 2012 services revenue totaled a record $283.9 million, increasing 16% over 2011. As a reminder, total service revenue includes both consulting and maintenance revenue. Strong demand for our Consulting Services continued in Q4, posting revenue of $46 million on 21% growth and full year revenue of $185.2 million on 18% growth. For the year, we increased our global services headcount 20% or nearly 250 heads to meet customer demand. About 25 of these heads were added in Q4, and our Q1 2013 hiring plan is to add about another 25 or so. Maintenance revenue for Q4 was $26.3 million, increasing 16% over Q4 2011, and full year maintenance revenue was a record $98.6 million, growing 13%. Solid license revenue performance throughout 2012, cash collections and retention rates of 90-plus percent contributed to year-over-year growth. As a reminder, we recognize maintenance renewal revenue on a cash basis, so the timing of cash collections can cause interperiod revenue lumpiness from quarter-to-quarter. Moving on to consolidated services margins for the quarter, they were 53.4% compared to 55.1% in Q3 2012 and 55.9% in Q4 2011. Consistent with prior years, Q4 margins declined sequentially from Q3 due to a combination of: Seasonal holiday impact on revenue, impact of new hires and higher performance-based compensation expense based on record results. Full year services margins were 55% versus 56.5% in 2011, reflecting the impact of 2012 new hires, the hire performance-based compensation expense, partially offset by favorable FX impact of about 60 basis points. As we've mentioned throughout 2011 and 2012, customer demand was outstripping capacity. So the past 2 years, we've aggressively hired to meet customer needs. Entering 2013, we've achieved a better demand capacity alignment, so we anticipate our pace of hiring should be more regulated throughout the year. For 2013, we are targeting full year services margins in the 53.75% to 54.25% range. We expect Q1 2013 Services margins to be in the 53.3% to 53.6% range, with Q2 and Q3 services margins increasing as availability and utilization ramps for the new hires and of course, in Q4, a sequential decline due to holiday seasonality. Regarding Q1, you may recall last year's Q1 Services margins were 54.8%, benefiting from the recognition of $2 million in previously deferred services revenue with no associated cost. Apples-to-apples, our Q1 2012 underlying Services margin is 53.4%, which is comparable to our Q1 2013 expectation. Our services margin profile factors in the full cost of our Q4 and Q1 hires. This investment, combined with annual salary increases and seasonally high FICA payroll tax expense, will raise our cost of services sequentially from Q4 to Q1 by about 3% or 4%. Moving on to operating expenses. These include sales and marketing, R&D, G&A and depreciation, and were $30.7 million for the quarter and $126.9 million for the year, both up about 5%. We expect 2013 operating expenses to grow about 6% over 2012 driven by investment in sales and marketing, R&D and IT and facilities infrastructure investments to support our growth. Turning to operating income. Through strong revenue growth and operating expense control, we delivered record Q4 and full year adjusted operating income of $21.7 million in the quarter and $88.4 million for the year. Operating margins for Q4 were 22.7% and 23.5% full year. 2012 full year operating income and operating margin benefited $2.7 million and 90 basis points from FX impact, primarily driven by Indian rupee depreciation. Excluding the FX impact, 2012 full year operating margin increased 120 basis points to 22.6% compared to 21.4% operating margin we achieved in 2011. As we discussed in our previous earnings call and consistent with our 2012 beginning of the year outlook for margin expansion, we continue to plan a 50-basis-point improvement in 2013 operating margin. In addition to meeting our revenue growth objectives, this improvement depends on the relative stability of forecasted FX rates for 2013. We expect Q1 2013 operating margin to be about the same as Q1 2012's 21.4%, with Q2 through Q4 operating margins ranging between 24% and 25%, adjusted for quarterly license and services revenue mix due to seasonality. Just a reminder, Q1 2012's operating margin was 19.7% if you exclude the $2 million in deferred services revenue impact. So apples-to-apples, we're looking to achieve about 170 basis point improvement in Q1 2013. Moving on to other income, which includes net interest income, net gains and losses on asset disposals and the net impact of realized and unrealized foreign exchange gains or losses, was a positive $534,000 in Q4 and a positive $965,000 for the full year. Consistent with prior years, our 2013 forecast for other income is $100,000 of income per quarter, totaling $400,000 full year. We do not attempt to budget for FX gains and losses in other income. Moving on to income taxes. Our 2012 adjusted effective income tax rate was 36%. For 2013, we are forecasting a full year effective tax rate of 35.75%. Our Q1 tax rate estimate is approximately 35%, reflecting the 2012 R&D tax credit approved by Congress this month and for quarters 2 through 4 the effective rate is 36%. Turning to cash. We generated full year operating cash flow of $75 million, up from $56 million in 2012 on strong earnings growth and low cash tax payments. Over the past couple of years, we have benefited from tax-deductible option exercise activity that will be minimal in 2013 and forward. So absent any U.S. tax reform in 2013, our cash paid taxes will definitely increase. Our 2012 free cash flow increased 33% to $67 million over $51 million in 2011. We closed the year with $103 million in cash and investments and 0 debt on our balance sheet. And our Q4 DSOs were 60 days, down from 70 days in Q3 2012. So let me say we continue to be committed to achieving steady organic revenue growth and earnings leverage through investment in technical innovation while efficiently managing our capital structure to drive shareholder returns. For the year, we reduced our common shares outstanding 3%, buying back 1.9 million shares, totaling $99.7 million, offsetting option exercises of 1.3 million shares. In Q4, we repurchased 527,000 shares of Manhattan common stock, totaling $31 million, offsetting option exercises of 247,000 shares. Just a little perspective on cap structure management. In January of 2010, our comp committee approved the redesign of Manhattan's long-term equity incentive plan, eliminating stock option awards in favor of 100% restricted stock grants of which 50% are service based and 50% are performance based for all plan participants. The objective was to optimize the plan's performance and retention strength while managing program share usage to improve long-term equity overhang. Since January of 2010, 5 million options have been exercised, which equates to about 22% overhang and about $0.60 of EPS dilution risk, with no dilution impact to shareholders. Exiting 2012, we have about 370,000 outstanding option grants remaining. Under our restricted stock program, our overhang has been reduced from about 38% to 14%, and our annual grant rate -- run rate is about 1% of common shares. So for 2013, we are estimating quarterly and full year diluted shares at 20, that's 20.1 million shares. This estimate does not assume any common stock repurchases and depends on a number of variables, including stock price, option exercises, forfeitures and share repurchases, which can significantly impact estimates. And finally, last week, our board approved raising our share repurchase authority limit to a total of $50 million. So that closes the chapter on 2012. Now I will cover our 2013 guidance and then hand off to Eddie for the business update. So for 2013, our growth thesis is about the same as what we put forth at the start of 2012. While we are cautious given the tepid global macro environment, we expect to grow top line revenue in the 9% to 10% range, with operating margin expanding about 50 basis points to 24% and adjusted EPS increasing 12% to 14%. So a few details. For 2013 revenue, we're forecasting to grow total revenue at roughly 2x the market growth rate, pegged at the low end at 5%. Our current annual guidance for total revenue is to deliver $410 million to $415 million, which represents 9% to 10% growth. Given the macro, we pegged the low end of the 5% to 7% market growth estimate and, two, from a revenue mix, we believe hardware and build travel is likely to be growth constrained to the mid to high single-digit range. Overall, we expect our full year total revenue split to be about 48% first half, 52% second half. We expect to return to a more historical seasonal pattern, with Q1 and Q3 license revenue lower than Q2 and Q4 license, and Q4 services revenue down sequentially from Q3 due to seasonal holidays. We are assuming Q1 2013 total revenue growth to be about 7% over Q1 2012. Excluding the previously mentioned $2 million in nonrecurring deferred revenue in Q1 2012, we expect underlying year-over-year total revenue growth for Q1 to be about 9%. Final comment for revenue. If all goes according to plan, we expect to surpass 2 revenue milestones in 2013: Our Consulting Services will surpass $200 million in top line growth, and maintenance will surpass the $100 million century mark. And guess what, that's all organic, too. For 2013, adjusted diluted earnings per share, our guidance range is $3.15 to $3.21, representing 12% to 14% growth over 2012 adjusted EPS of $2.82. With beginning of the year salary increases for our worldwide staff and headcount additions to support continued strong services demand, we expect Q1 EPS to decline sequentially from Q4 by about 4% to 5%, while posting low double-digit growth over Q1 2012. And similar to revenue, we expect full year EPS to have about the same first half, second half spread of 48%, 52%. With the exception of Q1 2013 being down sequentially from Q4 2012, we expect the remaining quarters for the balance of the year to average adjusted EPS of about $0.83, plus or minus, reflecting typical patterns for license and services quarterly seasonality. And for 2013 GAAP diluted earnings per share, we expect to deliver $2.85 to $2.91, representing 11% to 14% growth over 2012 GAAP EPS of $2.56. The $0.30 full year EPS difference between GAAP and non-GAAP diluted adjusted EPS represents solely the impact of equity-based compensation. We expect the EPS impact to spread evenly across the year at about $0.075 per quarter. So that wraps up my comments and covers our 2013 guidance. Now I'll turn the call back to Eddie for the business update.