Jack McGinnis
Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open
Thanks, Jonas. Revenue in the second quarter represented a reported decline of 30% year-over-year and on a constant currency basis, represented a decrease of 28%. Net dispositions contributed to about 1% of the revenue decrease and billing days were largely the same year-over-year. This results in an organic constant currency days-adjusted revenue decline of 27% in the second quarter and compares to the first quarter decline of 7% on a similar basis and reflects the material impact of the COVID-19 crisis which began to impact our business in March. As investors are interested in the pace of any improvement driven by the impacts of reopening activities, I am including more information in my remarks this release on the monthly progression during the quarter. Our organic revenue trend during the quarter on a constant currency billing days adjusted basis included a monthly year-over-year revenue decline of 31% in April, 26% in May and 24% in June. The improvement in the rate of decrease during the quarter reflects the reopening of economies largely in May as governments lifted lock-down requirements. I will give more details on large country trends when I cover the regional segments. Our gross profit margin was down 80 basis points year-over-year and reflected a higher mix of enterprise client business, higher rates of sickness and absenteeism in certain countries at the beginning of the quarter and significantly lower permanent recruitment fees as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. Our second quarter performance resulted in an operating profit decline, excluding impairment charges, of 88%. This reflects the material operational de-leveraging experienced in a period in which government lockdowns and restrictions were at full force. This resulted in an operating profit margin of 0.6%, excluding impairment charges. As we did not provide guidance for Q2, our EPS bridge walks from the prior year quarter to the current year quarter. On a reported basis, earnings per share was a loss of $1.10, which included impairment charges, which had a $1.22 negative impact and discrete tax items which had a $0.06 negative impact. Excluding these non-cash special items, earnings per share was $0.18. Excluding the impact of the special items, our effective tax rate was 38%. This higher than usual rate reflects the outsized impact of the French Business Tax within tax expense that I mentioned last quarter. Looking at our gross profit margin in detail, our gross margin came in at 15.4%. Staffing/interim margin represented a decrease of 40 basis points and the significant decline in permanent recruitment fees drove an additional 40 basis points gross margin decline as a result of the COVID-19 crisis impact on hiring activity. Our staffing margin reflects a higher weighting of enterprise clients in our mix as well as the higher rate of sickness at the beginning of the quarter offset by reduced direct costs in certain countries due to government crisis response programs and our execution of various bill pay yield initiatives in the current environment. Next, let’s review our gross profit by business line. During the quarter, the Manpower brand comprised 59% of gross profit, our Experis professional business comprised 24%, and Talent Solutions brand comprised 17%. During the quarter, our Manpower brand reported an organic constant currency gross profit decrease of 37%. Gross profit in our Experis brand declined 20% year-over-year during the quarter on an organic constant currency basis. Although organically Experis revenues were only down in the high single-digits to low double-digits percentage range during the quarter, the almost 50% drop in perm gross profit combined with a higher mix shift to enterprise clients and a lower utilization of consultants within our Germany IT end user support business drove a more significant gross profit decline. In our two largest Experis markets, this reflects a gross profit decline of 14% in the U.S. and 23% in the UK. Talent Solutions includes our global market leading RPO, MSP and Right Management offerings. Organic gross profit declined 12% in constant currency, which was driven by RPO. As we mentioned last quarter, beginning in mid-March, we experienced a sharp reduction in RPO activity as many client programs initiated hiring freezes in light of the COVID-19 crisis and this double-digit percentage decline continued through the second quarter. Our MSP business has been very resilient during the crisis and experienced growth in the low single-digit percentages in gross profit year-over-year during the quarter. Our Right Management business experienced a decline in gross profit of 4% in organic constant currency during the quarter, which included a mid single-digit increase in outplacement gross profit, which was offset by reduced talent management consulting. Our reported SG&A expense in the quarter was $627 million, including the $73 million of impairment charges. The impairment charges, include a $67 million goodwill impairment for Germany and a $6 million impairment of capitalized software in the U.S. Although we have made good progress in executing various initiatives within our Germany business, the ongoing decline within the manufacturing sector, particularly automotive, has made it extremely difficult to project the pace of recovery and the timing of improvement in our German business results. As a result of the increased uncertainty in the outlook of the manufacturing sector in Germany, we impaired the remaining balance of our Germany goodwill during the quarter. After excluding special charges from both years, SG&A expense was $554 million, a decrease of $120 million from the prior year. On a constant currency basis, excluding special charges, SG&A expenses were down 16% compared to the prior year. Excluding the special charges, SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue in the quarter represented 14.8%, which reflected significant de-leveraging on the material drop in revenues during the quarter. As a result of strong cost management actions across all of our businesses, the impact of the July 20, 2020 6 revenue and gross profit declines was significantly offset by SG&A decreases, which after excluding impairment charges, allowed us to post an operating profit for the quarter. I will now turn to cash flow and balance sheet. Free cash flow defined as cash from operations less capital expenditures equaled $577 million for the first 6 months of the year. This compared to underlying free cash flow in the prior year of $149 million after excluding the sale of the France CICE receivable. During the second quarter, we were very successful in receivable collections, while incurring lower payroll costs on lower activity. Our improved cash flow also benefited from certain government payment deferral measures introduced as part of the COVID-19 crisis. The impact of these benefits is maturing and during the second half of the year, we expect lower levels of free cash flow in the third and fourth quarter. At quarter end, days sales outstanding decreased by about 1 day. In this environment, one of our top priorities is maintaining strong cash flows from collection activities. To-date, we have not experienced a significant deferral of cash receipts from clients and are watching this very carefully and ensuring our collection teams are appropriately staffed to diligently pursue payments as per original payment terms. Capital expenditures represented $19 million during the first 6 months of the year. During the quarter, our Board declared a semi-annual dividend of $1.09 keeping the amount stable with our 2019 levels, which was paid on June 15. We did not purchase any shares of stock during the second quarter and our year-to-date purchases stand at 871,000 shares of stock for $64 million. As of June 30, we have 5.9 million shares remaining for repurchase under the 6 million share program approved in August of 2019. Our balance sheet was strong at quarter end with cash of $1.4 billion and total debt of $1.05 billion, resulting in a net cash position of $384 million. Our debt ratios remain comfortable at quarter end with total gross debt to trailing 12 months EBITDA of 1.88 and total debt to total capitalization at 29%. As I mentioned, the cash increases associated with collecting out our accounts receivable and timing of certain payments will begin to reverse in the second half of the year. Our debt and credit facilities did not change in the quarter and the earliest euro note maturity is not until September of 2022. In addition, our revolving credit facility for $600 million remained unused. July 20, 2020 Now, I will turn to the segment results. The Americas segment comprised 23% of consolidated revenue. Revenue in the quarter was $837 million, a decrease of 17% in constant currency. OUP excluding impairment charges equaled $26 million and represented a decrease of 51% in constant currency from the prior year. The $6 million of impairment charges related to capitalized software in the U.S. The U.S. is the largest country in the Americas segment, comprising 62% of segment revenues. Revenue in the U.S. was $516 million, down 21% compared to the prior year. Adjusting for billing days and franchise acquisitions, this represented a 23% decrease year-over-year. The year-over-year monthly organic days-adjusted revenue trend during the quarter was a 24% decline in April, a 22% decline in May and a 23% decline in June. During the quarter, excluding the impairment charge, OUP for our U.S. business decreased 59% to $15 million and OUP margin was 3.0%, a decrease of 280 basis points from the prior year. Within the U.S., the Manpower brand comprised 31% of gross profit during the quarter. Revenue for the Manpower brand in the U.S. was down 31% in the quarter or down 35% when adjusted for billing days and franchise acquisitions. The Experis brand in the U.S. comprised 34% of gross profit in the quarter. Within Experis in the U.S., IT skills now comprise approximately 80% of revenues. Revenues within our IT vertical within Experis U.S. declined 8% during the quarter and total Experis U.S. revenues declined 12% as the Finance and Engineering verticals experienced more significant decreases. Talent Solutions in the U.S. contributed 35% of gross profit and experienced a 3% revenue decline in the quarter. As indicated earlier, our RPO business has experienced significant client hiring freezes in late March, which continued throughout the second quarter as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. The RPO declines were offset by low single-digit percentage revenue increases in MSP and mid single-digit increases in Right Management. On an overall basis, based on July activity to-date, our U.S. business is experiencing a revenue decline of about 22% and reflects a slightly improving trend in Manpower and a continuation of late second quarter trends in the Experis and Talent Solutions businesses. Our third quarter forecast for the U.S. is cautious based on the uncertainty of the path of the recovery based on additional restrictions being introduced in certain states based on recent health concerns. Provided, there are no significant reversals of reopening activity across the U.S., in the third quarter, we expect an overall rate of decline in the U.S. of minus 24% to minus 19%, which reflects modest improvement in Manpower and a continuation of the current Experis and Talent Solutions trends. Our Mexico operation experienced revenue decline of 10% in constant currency in the quarter. The constant currency revenue trend during the quarter included a 5% decline in April, a 14% decline in May during the height of the restrictions and a 12% decline in June. The business environment in Mexico continues to be challenging as a result of the COVID-19 crisis and we expect a similar revenue trend for the third quarter as experienced in the second quarter as certain lockdown restrictions continue to be in effect in Mexico as well as many of the other Latin American countries as the crisis impacted these countries later than other regions. Revenue in Canada declined 4% in constant currency during the quarter. The days-adjusted revenue trend during the quarter included a decline of 5% in April and May, which improved to a 3% decline in June. We are pleased with the performance of our Canada business in a very challenging environment. We expect the revenue decline in the third quarter to be similar to the second quarter decline in Canada. Revenue in the other countries within Americas declined 12% in constant currency. Southern Europe revenue comprised 39% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue in Southern Europe came in at $1.5 billion, a decrease of 38% in constant currency. OUP equaled $12 million and represented a decrease of 90% from the prior year in constant currency and OUP margin was down 440 basis points, driven by France and Italy as a result of the severe impacts of the COVID-19 crisis. France revenue comprised 50% of the Southern Europe segment in the quarter and was down 47% from the prior year in constant currency. The year-over-year monthly days-adjusted revenue trend during the quarter was a 62% decline in April, a 49% decline in May and a 33% decline in June. OUP was a loss of $2 million. OUP improved over the course of the quarter and France regained profitability in June as the rate of revenue decline improved above the 40% decline threshold. We have taken significant actions in France to reduce our costs during this period of materially reduced activity. Our French business took significant cost actions and this resulted in an SG&A reduction of 23% during the second quarter. Although improvement has been steady in France, the rate of improvement in the revenue trend has slowed. During July activity to-date, the business is currently experiencing a year-over-year decline of about 30%. We are cautiously estimating a slow and gradual improvement in the rate of decline for the third quarter of between minus 30% and minus 25%. Revenue in Italy equaled $269 million in the quarter, representing a decrease of 30% in constant currency after adjusting for billing days. The year-over-year monthly days-adjusted revenue trend during the quarter was a 41% decline in April, a 31% decline in May and a 20% decline in June. The material decrease in permanent recruitment activity that we noted in March and April continued throughout the quarter leading to a 55% decline in permanent recruitment gross profit during the quarter. OUP declined 63% in constant currency to $11 million and OUP margin decreased 340 basis points to 4.1%. We have taken significant action in Italy to reduce costs during this crisis, which reduced SG&A significantly in the quarter. We estimate that Italy will continue to see slow and gradual improvement in the rate of revenue decline during the third quarter, with a decline within a range of minus 18% to minus 13%. Revenue in Spain decreased 13% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis from the prior year in the quarter. We expect a slight improvement in the rate of revenue decline in Spain for the third quarter. Having anniversaried the purchase of our Manpower Switzerland Franchise in early April 2019, we are now breaking out the revenue trend of our entire Switzerland business. On a days-adjusted basis in constant currency, our Switzerland business experienced a revenue decline of 19% in the second quarter. The business experienced an improving trend from the April low point and the rate of improvement is now more gradual. We expect a slight improvement in rate of decline during the third quarter from the second quarter trend. Our Northern Europe segment comprised 23% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue declined 24% in constant currency to $866 million. OUP was flat for the quarter. A very challenging environment in Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands was offset by reduced profits in the UK, Norway, Belgium and Poland. Our largest market in the Northern Europe segment is the UK, which represented 35% of segment revenue in the quarter. During the quarter, UK revenues decreased 22% in constant currency. The UK bottomed out in May and has experienced gradual improvement since that point. The year-over-year monthly days-adjusted constant currency revenue trend during the quarter was a 17% decline in April, a 26% decline in May, and a 23% decline in June. We estimate that the UK will continue to see slow and gradual improvement in the rate of revenue decline during the third quarter with a decline in the range of minus 20% to minus 15%. In Germany, revenues declined 32% on a constant currency adjusted for billing days basis in the second quarter. The year-over-year monthly days-adjusted revenue trend during the quarter was a 33% decline in April and a 32% decline in both May and June. Our German business has not experienced a rate of recovery that many of our other European businesses have experienced, as the manufacturing sector and particularly automotive, continue to be experiencing extremely challenging conditions. I previously mentioned the impairment of the remaining balance of goodwill related to our Germany business during the quarter. Our German business took significant cost actions during the quarter that reduced SG&A by 25% year-over-year, which partially offset the significant loss in gross profit. As a result of the ongoing challenges within the manufacturing sector, we expect only a slight improvement in the rate of revenue decline during the third quarter. In the Nordics, revenues declined 22% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis. The two primary businesses in the Nordics are Norway and Sweden. On a days-adjusted constant currency basis, Norway experienced a decline of 17% and Sweden declined 28%. Both countries leveraged government programs to reduce headcount during the quarter, which resulted in significant decreases in SG&A year-over-year. During the third quarter, for the Nordics overall, we expect a moderate improvement in the rate of revenue decline experienced in the second quarter. Revenue in the Netherlands decreased 24% in constant currency on a days-adjusted basis during the second quarter. The Netherlands also took out significant costs during the second quarter, which significantly offset reduced gross profit. During the third quarter, we expect a slight improvement in the rate of decline from the second quarter. Belgium experienced a days-adjusted revenue decline of 37% in constant currency during the second quarter. We expect a moderate improvement during the third quarter in the rate of revenue decline from the second quarter. Other markets in Northern Europe had a revenue decrease of 11% in constant currency. We expect these markets to experience a slight improvement in the rate of decline during the third quarter. The Asia-Pacific Middle East segment comprises 15% of total company revenue. In the quarter, revenue decreased 19% in constant currency to $569 million. Adjusting for the deconsolidation of our Greater China operations following their initial public offering in July 2019, this represented an organic constant currency revenue decrease of 3% in the second quarter. The APME region has held up relatively well during this crisis. OUP represented $18 million in the quarter, a constant currency decrease of 40% year-over-year and after adjusting for the Greater China deconsolidation, represented an organic constant currency OUP decline of 23%. OUP margin was 3.1% and represented a decrease of 100 basis points or 80 basis points on an organic basis. Revenue growth in Japan was up 6% adjusted for billing days on a constant currency basis during the quarter. Japan instituted new legislation at the beginning of the second quarter, which increased the cost of temporary staffing. Our business managed the adoption of this legislation very well and this did not have a significant impact on our results. Our Japan business continues to perform very well and we anticipate third quarter growth to reflect a slight decrease from the second quarter level of growth. Revenues in Australia declined 21% in constant currency adjusted for billing days during the second quarter. During the third quarter, we expect a moderate improvement in the rate of revenue decline from the second quarter. Revenue in other markets in Asia-Pacific, Middle East were down 37% in constant currency and adjusting for dispositions, this represented a 7% rate of decline. The largest market in this group includes our India business, which experienced double-digit revenue declines in the second quarter in light of various COVID-19 restrictions. We estimate that other markets in APME overall will experience a slight improvement in the rate of decline in the third quarter. Next, I will review our outlook for the third quarter of 2020. We are resuming guidance as the major uncertainty associated with the government lockdowns has largely been lifted. However, our guidance assumes no major rollbacks of reopening activities in any of our largest markets. On that basis, we are forecasting earnings per share for the third quarter to be in the range of $0.59 to $0.67, which includes a negative impact from foreign currency of $0.01 per share. Our constant currency revenue guidance range is between a decline of 20% to a decline of 18%. The midpoint constant currency decline of 19% also equals the organic days-adjusted rate of decline as billing days are essentially the same year-over-year and impacts of the U.S. franchise acquisitions are very slight. This represents an improvement of 8% from the organic days-adjusted constant currency decline of 27% in the second quarter. We expect our operating profit margin during the third quarter to be down 190 basis points compared to the prior year quarter reflecting steadily improving performance in what will continue to be an extremely challenging environment. This reflects continued strong cost actions, but at lower levels of year-over-year SG&A reductions as activity levels progressively increase. We expect our income tax rate in the third quarter to approximate 41%, which reflects the outsized impact of the French Business Tax effect that I discussed last quarter. As usual, our guidance does not incorporate restructuring charges or additional share repurchases and we estimate our weighted average shares to be 58.5 million. With that, I’d like to turn it back to Jonas.