Barry Golsen
Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your questions
Thanks, Tony. Now focusing on the chemical business, please turn to Page 16. During 2014, prices of natural gas and anhydrous ammonia were generally higher while the selling prices of urea, ammonium nitrate and ammonium nitrate fertilizer declined. Since year-end, both natural gas and anhydrous ammonia prices have declined significantly, which benefits all of our production facilities except for those products which we sell on a cost plus basis. Focusing on the general outlook for the agricultural markets we serve, Page 17 lists several indicators for our agricultural products many of which continue to be favorable. Even though grain stock to use ratios both worldwide and in the U.S are currently at or above 10-year averages. Planting levels are expected to remain generally high although slightly lower than the recent past. Industry expectations are that approximately 88 million to 89 million acres of corn will be planted in the upcoming season, about 3% less than the previous season. Weather shortened the fall ammonia application season and we expect that ammonia and UAN applications will now be strong for the upcoming planting season, as wholesalers look to increase their inventories. In addition, natural gas prices remain at relatively low levels. Market prices for corn and wheat are slightly lower than a year-ago, but yields per acre are up. So planting continues to be profitable for farmers. To achieve higher yields, nitrogen fertilizers must be applied. North American nitrogen fertilizer producers, including our chemical business, currently have the lowest delivered cost in North America relative to foreign producers. Therefore, we believe if there is less demand for nitrogen fertilizer in the upcoming season, it will affect importers, before it affects domestic producers. At this time, weather conditions are generally favorable for the next planting season with better moisture conditions than a year-ago. While certain products of Texas, Oklahoma, and Western United States are in extreme drought conditions, the majority of the markets we serve appear to have good planning conditions. Finally, although Chinese urea is subject to lower export tariffs, prices have currently stabilized. Chinese urea export rates accelerated through 2014 and imports of Chinese urea into North America are expected to continue in 2015 at a similar rates to 2014 as tariffs are expected to remain low. Also there is the potential to see lower Chinese coal prices, a primary feedstock for Chinese urea. These factors could exert downward pressure on all nitrogen fertilizer products. Overall, we continue to be optimistic about the fundamentals of our agricultural business. Focusing on our industrial and mining products, please turn to Page 18. Most indicators in this area forecast growth over the next few years. As we advised previously, our contract with Orica ends on October 9 -- April 9, 2015. Our strategy is to commence selling industrial grade AN directly to the explosive market at that time. So far we are pleased to have signed agreements to supply approximately 140,000 tons per year over 60% of our annual production capacity of industrial grade AN volume, beginning on April 10, 2015. We are currently in negotiations with other potential customers of industrial grade AN for most of the balance of our production capacity. Page 19 is an update on the status of each of our chemical facilities. Cherokee is currently operating at its historical rates of approximately 500 tons per day of ammonia. Pryor is operating at its targeted rate of approximately 650 tons per day of ammonia. And the Baytown operation is performing at targeted production levels. At El Dorado, our focus remains on our expansion projects where we successfully completed a one-week outage in December to allow for tie-ins of certain items that will service the new ammonia and acid plants under construction. With regard to planned maintenance at each of the facilities, we have a turnaround at Pryor scheduled for late June or July 2015. In addition to enhancing our Pryor operation with new senior management, we’ve and are continuing to implement facility reliability improvements including engineering support, extensive monitoring and control equipment, remanufacture of certain key pieces of equipment and use of industry expert consultants. We have also increased our capital spares at this location. The combination of these improvements is intended to improve plant on-stream rates by reducing the risk of unplanned downtime. At Cherokee, as previously disclosed, the work completed in -- with the work completed in 2014, we are transitioning Cherokee to a two-year cycle for major turnarounds and don't expect to perform a turnaround at Cherokee in 2015. The Cherokee facility has made continued progress toward improved reliability and resources have been committed to ensure that the reliability goals are met. Page 20 details the status of the El Dorado ammonia plant expansion project. As we have stated in the past, this project will significantly reduce El Dorado’s cost of ammonia as the cost spread between purchased and manufactured ammonia is substantial. It will also produce additional ammonia that will be available for sale or which can be upgraded to other products for sale. The engineering effort is now substantially complete and the project timeline is now driven by executing the construction process. Pilings and foundations are substantially complete. A large part of the underground piping and structural steel is complete and a majority of major equipment has been installed. The cooling towers were also complete, while the piping installation is now underway. Whereas we have outlined the major milestones for this project in the past, we’ve changed the presentation of this slide to give more clarity to the timing of certain of these key events and milestones. Turning to Page 21, we show a 3D CAD rendering of the ammonia plant on the top of the page and a current photo of the site below. You can see in the bottom picture that foundations, concrete pads and many large vessels have been installed. Structural steel and the cooling tower are also effectively complete, as is the demineralized water tank. Work is progressing well on the primary former and we’ve installed one of three compressors with the other two compressors ready for delivery and installation. Most of the piping is on site inspected and being prepared for installation. Please turn to Page 22. In addition to the ammonia plant being constructed at El Dorado, we are adding a 65% Weatherly nitric acid plant and concentrator to direct -- to replace the direct strong nitric acid plant that was destroyed in 2012, while also adding additional capacity. At this time, the nitric acid concentrator is mechanically complete with control systems to be installed over the next several months and the nitric acid plant is progressing on schedule. On Page 23, you can see a recent photo of the 65% nitric acid plant and concentrator. The equipment and building foundations for the nitric acid plant are complete and steel fabrication and erection is also almost complete. 100% of the equipment for this plant is on-site and most is installed including the absorber towers and compressor train. The cooling tower installation is complete. Piping installation is underway as well as electrical systems. At this time, we expect the El Dorado expansion projects to be completed on time and on budget. Also at this time we have the cost for approximately 93% of the planned scope of work under contract. We expect the acid plant and concentrator to be completed and to begin production in the third quarter of 2015 and the ammonia plant construction and commissioning to be completed by the end of 2015 with ammonia production start-up and ramp up during the first quarter of 2016. Turning to our climate control business, on Page 24, you will note that incoming orders for the fourth quarter were slightly behind those of the prior year in both commercial and institutional and single-family residential sectors of our business. However, in the aggregate, and excluding the lost Carrier heat pump business, which we discussed previously, incoming orders in the fourth quarter were 10.8% above those in 2013. For the full-year of 2014, commercial and institutional incoming orders were 12% above the prior year. However, single-family residential incoming orders were 7% below the prior year. Again, excluding the lost Carrier heat pump business, incoming orders for 2014 for commercial, institutional and residential sectors were up 18% and 15% respectively over 2013. In addition, there was a dramatic increase in the ending backlog as of December 31, 2014. The year-end backlog was $65 million, up 63% over the 2013 ending backlog. We are pleased that all of our climate control businesses had backlog increases year-over-year. Moving on to the indicators related to commercial and institutional construction, on Page 25, we show the Dodge Data & Analytics expects our markets will continue to increase in the near-term. They most recently forecasted that the key commercial and institutional sectors we serve are expected to grow approximately 26% from 2014 to 2017. During the -- during 2014, the Architectural Billings Index indicated growth in 10 out of 12 months, another strong indicator that business will continue to strengthen in the near-term. On Page 26, you can see the Dodge forecast for single-family residential construction starts. These are expected to increase 65% from 2014 to 2017. In summary, the general consensus of most economists and construction and industry experts is that construction recovery will continue. This is a positive indicator for our climate control business. Turning to our expectations for the chemical business, we have included a chart on Page 27, which contains a range of anticipated chemical product volumes for the first quarter of 2015. I’d like to switch focus now to the vision for LSB's future. As we’ve described to you over the past several conference calls, we are focused on value drivers, projects, and initiatives that we have the potential to be transformative for the Company. We expect these initiatives to significantly increase our earnings and create substantial value for LSB's shareholders. We have received many requests from shareholders and analysts to create a roadmap of what our targets are for the Company, following the completion of our chemical expansion projects and the implementation of reliability enhancements across all our chemical plants. And given the multiple initiatives we have in our climate control business combined with the expected increase in commercial and institutional construction. We believe it is important for our shareholders to understand our targets regarding revenue and earnings growth and also to understand the key elements of our plan to achieve these targets. Since our plan is a multi-year effort, on the following pages we have compared 2014 actual results to our targets for 2017. By 2017, we will have completed our chemical expansion projects and have a full-year of operation of those new plants. At the same time, we will be further into the improved construction cycle, the primary driver for our climate control business. On Page 28, we’ve summarized our chemical and climate control key targets for 2017, which include financial metrics for both businesses annual chemical plant production, and key initiatives. Regarding our chemical business, we're targeting EBITDA and operating margins of 30% and 20% respectively for 2017. That is an increase from adjusted EBITDA and operating margins of 12% and 6% in 2014. In our climate control business, the targets for EBITDA and operating margins are 15% and 14% respectively versus 10% and 8% that we achieved in 2014. The next several slides will provide color on the drivers of growth for each of our businesses. Page 29 provides an EBITDA transition for our chemical business from 2014 actual to targeted 2017. You will see that the three big drivers of an incremental EBITDA are first, the ammonia and nitric acid plants commencing production which allows us to reduce the cost of ammonia while providing additional ammonia to seller upgrade to other nitrogen products. Second, improved on-stream rates primarily at Pryor, and third reduced expenses from less unplanned downtime. The chart on page 30, attempts to provide some color as to the chemical businesses EBITDA sensitivity to a change in natural gas prices, in ammonia prices based on our targets for 2017, with ammonia being a proxy for both UAN and AN pricing. As the analysis points out, movements in our primary feedstock cost and in selling prices have a material effect on our financial results. Page 31, provides an EBITDA transition for our climate control business from 2014 actual to targeted 2017. The three main drivers of growth in this business will be first, operating leverage for an increase in sales as we are currently covering our fixed overhead cost and can handle any anticipated growth in our existing manufacturing facilities with no significant capital investment. Second, plant performance improvements in our custom air handler, modular chiller and construction services businesses all of which we report as other in our public filings as they gain increased scale. And finally, lean initiatives that we began implementing in 2013 which we expect to result in an increase in gross margins. On page 32, are the key value drivers that we are focused on in which we expect will increase LSB’s value in the near and mid term. We’ve reviewed these with you in detail before, so they are here only for reference. We expect all of these initiatives to drive the improved performance enhance profitability and share holder value creation that we have just discussed. Summing up, we expect that our efforts over the past several years to strengthen our operations and expand our production capabilities will yield substantial improvement in sales and profits, and ultimately increase shareholder value. We look forward to reporting our progress to you. Before we conclude the call, I want to switch gears briefly to discuss the press release we issued this morning regarding the strategic committees review and recommendation. As you know the strategic committee which is comprised of four independent directors was established in accordance with the company’s April 2014 settlement agreement with Starboard Value one of our largest shareholders. The strategic committee’s mandate included a thorough evaluation of potential strategic alternatives for the company with the assistance of independent financial, legal and tax advisors. In particular the strategic committee considered separating the climate control business through a spin off, selling the climate control business, placing some or all of the company’s chemical business into a master limited partnership or MLP structure and continuing to execute the company’s strategic plan. As announced this morning, the strategic committee and board of directors have unanimously determined that the continued execution of the company’s strategy to drive profitable growth and create sustainable shareholder value is in the best interest of LSB and its shareholders at this time. The strategic committee and board also determine that a potential spin or sale of its climate control assets from the chemical business maybe a step for consideration once the expansion projects at the company’s chemical facilities are complete, and the strategic committee will continue to reevaluate this alternative over the next 12 to 18 months. And coming to its recommendation, the strategic committee noted that LSB has been taking actions that should enhance the long-term liability and performance of the chemical business facilities. The El Dorado expansion projects are on schedule and within budget and once complete should deliver substantial value to shareholders, and managements plan to grow the climate control business is expected to generate significant margin improvement over the next several years. The strategic committee will now focus its near-term attention on providing over site and additional recommendations as appropriate to assist management in the execution of the company’s plan to lower production cost, improve manufacturing efficiency, drive sales growth and enhance profitability with a particular emphasis on completing the expansion projects at our El Dorado facility. I encourage everyone to read the press release we issued this morning that goes into much more detail about the strategic committee’s process, considerations and ultimate recommendations. On a final note, I’d like to mention that we will be presenting on March 16 in New York at the Sidoti Annual Equity Conference, and on March 18 in Boston at the BofA Smid Cap Conference. We hope to see some of you there. We will now go to Q&A. Operator?