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LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 7, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the LSB Industries’ Third Quarter 2014 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Carol Oden. Thank you. Ms. Oden, you may begin.

Carol Oden - Investor Relations

Management

Thank you. Welcome to LSB Industries, Inc. third quarter 2014 conference call. Today, LSB’s management participants are Jack Golsen, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Barry Golsen, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Tony Shelby, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This conference call is being broadcast live over the internet and is also being recorded. An archive of the webcast will be available shortly after the call on our website at www.lsbindustries.com. After comments by management, a question-and-answer session will be held. Instructions for asking questions will be provided at that time. Information reported on this call speaks only as of today, November 7, 2014 and therefore you are advised that time-sensitive information may no longer be accurate as of the time of any replay. After the question-and-answer session, I will have some important comments and disclaimers about forward-looking statements and our references to EBITDA. We encourage you to view the PowerPoint PDF that is posted on our website at www.lsbindustries.com in the Webcasts and Presentations section of the Investors tab. Please note that the presentation starts on Page 3 of the PowerPoint. And now, I will turn the call over to Mr. Jack Golsen.

Jack Golsen - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Good morning. Thank you for joining our conference call today, which will cover a discussion of our third quarter 2014 results. We have released our results in a press release this morning. Let me start by providing some highlights from the third quarter. Please turn to Page 3 of the presentation. You will see that sales were $171 million for the third quarter of 2014, down $6.4 million compared to the third quarter of 2013 and we had a net loss of $3.8 million for the quarter compared to a net income of $10.3 million for the third quarter of 2013. Clearly, from a profit standpoint, this was not a good quarter. Third quarter chemical business results were impacted by a plant extended turnaround at our Cherokee facility that lasted 42 days. As a result of completing the necessary work to the facility, we are not planning a turnaround for this facility until 2016. That should translate to higher overall on-stream production rates and profitability in the future. Our climate control business continued to make progress during the third quarter. Sales in that business increased approximately 5% or $3.6 million, which reflects improved order levels. In fact, bookings are up 12% this year versus last year. Also pointing to the improvement in the business is the fact that we have the highest backlog that we have had since 2008. We are continuing to see the trends in commercial and institutional construction improving, although the business is not yet where we wanted to be from an earnings standpoint. Later in this call, Tony and Barry will give you details about the financial performance and operations of our two businesses. Barry will discuss the continued progress that we are making on our expansion projects at El Dorado later on this call. We are continuing to put a high priority on making sure that we stay on track with these projects as the benefits are significant. Looking forward, we expect the fourth quarter of this year to be much improved as we have no turnarounds planned for any of our chemical facilities during the quarter, meaning all of our plants will be producing. And in our climate control business it continues to build momentum as the trends for this business continue to improve. We have discussed on previous calls the steps that we are taking to improve the long-term reliability and performance of our chemical facilities and we are seeing progress. For example, we expect that the ammonia production at our Pryor facility for the full year of 2014 will be doubled over 2013 and we also expect production to increase again in 2015. Summing up, we see good momentum in each of our businesses and anticipate delivering improving results in the fourth quarter of 2014 and for 2015. Now, I will turn this call over to Tony and Barry who will go into more details about our financial and operation performance of quarter three. Thank you.

Tony Shelby - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Thanks Jack. As Jack indicated our climate control business continue to make progress and reported increased sales, orders and backlog for the third quarter. On the other hand our chemical business third quarter results were neither a reflection of market conditions nor an indication of our expectation for results in subsequent periods given the extensive maintenance activities during the quarter. We expect the planned maintenance to result in significant improvement in on-stream production in the fourth quarter and in 2015. During this financial review we will discuss these and other factors that affected results for the third quarter 2014 and the variances between quarters. Consolidated net sales were $171 million, a decrease of $6.4 million. The decrease included $9.4 million in the chemical business partially offset by the increase of $3.6 million in the climate control business. The quarter resulted in an operating loss of $1.2 million compared to an operating income of $23 million in the prior year period. The decrease in operating income of $24 million was due to planned downtime in the chemical business as we performed extensive maintenance at the Cherokee facility and to a lesser extent at the Pryor facility. Interest expense for the quarter was $5.1 million, net of $3.9 million of capitalized interest compared to $5.4 million net of $1.2 million capitalized interest in the prior year quarter. After a provision for income taxes of approximately 39%, the net loss was $3.8 million or $0.17 per share, compared to net income of $10.3 million or $0.43 per share last year. In concluding on Page 4, EBITDA for the quarter was $8 million compared to $29 million for last year’s third quarter. For the trailing 12 months ended September 30, 2014, EBITDA was $154 million compared to $79 million. On Page 5 is a…

Barry Golsen - President and Chief Operating Officer

Management

Thanks Tony. Today I will cover what’s going on in the markets we serve, update you on major initiatives underway and review the key value drivers that we are focused on. Before discussing the markets we serve in our climate control business, it’s important to understand costs and pricing trends for the feedstock we use and the products we sell. Please turn to Page 17 to see these trends. Summing up this page and reinforcing Tony’s earlier financial review, over the past year prices of natural gas and anhydrous ammonia have increased, while the selling prices of urea ammonium nitrate fertilizer have declined. Whereas ammonium nitrate fertilizer prices are about the same as a year ago. Our cost to produce AN at El Dorado has risen due to higher purchased ammonia cost. All of this has resulted in significantly reduced margins per ton in the agricultural part of our business compared to the last several years. Focusing on the general outlook for the agricultural markets we serve, Page 18 lists several indicators for our agricultural products, many of which continue to be favorable. Planting levels are expected to remain generally high, although slightly lower than the recent past due to record crop harvest over the last two years. Grain stock to use ratios both worldwide and in the U.S. are currently at or approaching 10-year highs. Industry expectations are that approximately 86 million to 88 million acres of corn will be planted in the upcoming season. About 3% less than the previous season and compared to 97 million acres in 2012, which was the all-time high in recent history. Market prices for corn and wheat are lower than a year ago but yields per acre are up. So planting continues to be profitable for farmers. North American nitrogen fertilizer producers…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Gentlemen, our first question today is coming from the line of Joe Mondillo with Sidoti. Please go ahead with your question. Joe Mondillo – Sidoti & Company: Good morning guys.

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti

Hello Joe. Hello.

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti

Joe, are you there?

Operator

Operator

It appears we have lost Joe. We are moving on to our next question it would be the line of David Deterding (Wells Fargo). Please go ahead with your question.

David Deterding - Wells Fargo

Analyst

Hi good morning guys.

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti

Good morning David.

David Deterding - Wells Fargo

Analyst

I just want to get a kind of outlook for ammonia, I mean it looks like obviously ammonia prices have moved markedly higher during the quarter, yet UAN prices have kind of stalled and look to be in a down a little bit, can you just talk about what’s driving that and what you kind of see going forward over the next couple quarters?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti

David what we are hearing from our marketing area is that there is a suppression of production globally right now and there are plants that are shutdown, there is problems in Ukraine area, so there is a shortage of production, but there is also in terms of UAN that we are in a quiet period. So our marketing people think that there is $655 Tampa price is going to come down big time probably $100 to $150 over the next few months.

David Deterding - Wells Fargo

Analyst

Okay, great. And then on the 240,000 tons that you guys were selling to Orica, congratulations, it sounds like you got half of that already under a cost plus agreement and it sounds like you are working to get the rest of it under agreement. Would you expect those agreement – new agreements to have better cost plus margins than did the old Orica agreements or about the same?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti

At this time, we really don’t want to prognosticate on what exactly those agreements will constitute, but certainly our target is to shoot for at or better prices.

David Deterding - Wells Fargo

Analyst

Okay. And then looking at your capital expenditure chart from last quarter to this quarter, it looks like spending at El Dorado was $430 million to $500 million on the project for total and now it’s $485 million to $520 million, yet total capital spending on the piece above that it went from $388 million to $458 million from $392 million to $515 million. Can you just I guess I am trying to reconcile how the El Dorado project went up, but total capital spending went down?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti

A lot of it is just timing, David. We have narrowed the ranges of – the progress of the construction project in El Dorado is pretty much on time, but the spending is lagging a bit, but the timing of the spending and the completion of project is somewhat separate right now. So, the construction project is from a progression standpoint is on time. The spending on the other projects will fluctuate from time to time as we move things in and out, but on the El Dorado expansion project, it was like own target and the spending is as we have shown it there.

David Deterding - Wells Fargo

Analyst

I guess would you expect any of that to rollover into 2016 potentially since the ramp up of spending is a little longer than expected?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti

No, we still expect completion of construction in ‘15 and the commissioning of the plant in 2016. So, the spending will be complete by ‘15.

David Deterding - Wells Fargo

Analyst

Great, that’s all I have. Thank you, guys.

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti

Thanks, David.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from the line of Dan Mannes with Avondale. Please proceed with your question.

Dan Mannes - Avondale

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

Thanks. Good morning.

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

Good morning, Dan.

Dan Mannes - Avondale

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

A couple of quick ones. First, on the turnaround activity during the quarter, first can you remind us how many days of downtime you had in the prior year quarter at Cherokee and Pryor? And second, can you talk maybe about how extensive not the unabsorbed overhead was, but the incremental – the non-normal cost during the turnaround, because that seemed to be a lot bigger than we thought?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

Well, in the prior year – in the previous year 2013, we did not have a turnaround in the third quarter at Cherokee. And as Tony pointed that out, you might have missed it. He pointed that out in the script and that’s one of the reasons for the significant difference. We had some downtime earlier in the year of 2013 at Cherokee and we did maintenance during that period. So, there was no third quarter turnaround. The second part of your question which was how much downtime was there at Pryor in the third quarter of last year? I do not recall as I am sitting here. Do you remember?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

Well, as you know, we have extensive downtime in 2013 at Pryor. So, there is no – from a downtime standpoint, there is in the third quarter of last year, there was not necessarily a turnaround, but there was some downtime, which would be comparable to the downtime this quarter.

Dan Mannes - Avondale

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

Okay. And then not the unabsorbed overhead or lost sales, the kind of I guess the professional services contractors etcetera during the turnaround, how much more extensive was that than what we determine normal turnaround at Cherokee, because it seems like a pretty big number?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

Yes. Are you talking about the 42 days?

Dan Mannes - Avondale

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

No, not the amount of unabsorbed overhead, but I think you said there was $11 million of year-over-year cost, the $5 million in the expensed incurred for the turnaround, those I assume are professional services contractors, etcetera. They just seemed much more extensive than what you normally incurred during a normal turnaround.

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

It was much more extensive, because as we have outlined in the conference call, this was a transition from a single year turnaround to the 2-year turnaround in the future and you get much further into the equipment, you have much more extensive review and analysis than you would on an annual turnaround. So, we think that the benefits will be significant, but $5 million for the out-of-pocket maintenance cost was pretty much within our expectation. Now, occasionally when you get into these turnarounds especially extensive or not you find things you don’t know until you get inside the equipment. So from a standpoint of expectation versus success I think it was a success, very successful turnaround.

Dan Mannes - Avondale

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Real quick on El Dorado, you mentioned some margin compression there given ammonia prices, are you upside down on margins just based on the ammonia cost versus the ammonia nitrate price are you upside down when you include your overhead and costs. I guess I am trying to understand are you almost to the point where you are better of not running the things or if you can just give us a little color there?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

Now we are much better to run it. This is a temporary situation we are covering all the ammonia costs, some of the variable costs $655 ammonia it gets very close, so we made the disclosure in our Q that these costs to produce form purchased ammonia, you see the selling price, very minimally – very minimal difference and its temporary and we are hanging on this business because it’s going to be a big part of our going forward after the end of 2015.

Dan Mannes - Avondale

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

I wasn’t asking about divesting businesses, but just wondering if it might make sense to take it down for a little bit. The last question relates to the CapEx cost for the new gas pipeline, is that roughly $20 million and can you give us some scope of what benefit you are going to get from that – from owning the pipeline rather than I guess getting capacity from someone else?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

It’s in the range of $20 million and the benefit is very significant from the standpoint that we are going to be purchasing a lot of gas when we start the ammonia plant at El Dorado. And the mark up from a leasing standpoint is significantly higher than if we buy the gas directly and own the pipeline. And we have done a very extensive return on average capital employed and we think is well justified to own it versus lease it.

Dan Mannes - Avondale

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Thank you very much.

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Avondale. Please proceed with your question

Thanks Dan.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Mondillo with Sidoti & Company. Please go ahead with your question. Joe Mondillo - Sidoti & Company: Hi guys. Sorry this is second time I am not sure what happened there, can you hear me?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Joe Mondillo with Sidoti & Company

Yes. Hi Joe. Joe Mondillo - Sidoti & Company: So my first question just in terms of Pryor, was there any downtime in the third quarter I missed your prepared remarks regarding downtime at Pryor in the third quarter?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Joe Mondillo with Sidoti & Company

Of 2014? Joe Mondillo - Sidoti & Company: Yes.

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Joe Mondillo with Sidoti & Company

We mentioned several times in there that we pulled in some maintenance on the ammonia plant into third quarter from the fourth quarter and while we were doing some repairs on the urea plant. So yes, there was fairly significant amount of downtime in the third quarter of ‘14. Joe Mondillo - Sidoti & Company: Okay. And then you mentioned that there is going to be the – next turnaround is going to be in the second quarter of next year, is that correct?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Joe Mondillo with Sidoti & Company

Yes. Joe Mondillo - Sidoti & Company: My question regarding that why does it have to be in the second quarter, just because we know that the seasonal strength usually than the second quarter and also how long or how big of a turnaround is that going to be?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Joe Mondillo with Sidoti & Company

Well, it’s going to be at the tail end of the second quarter and depending on the strength of the season and the condition of the plant at that time it’s possible that that could push into the first part of the third quarter. The primary reason for having that turnaround is that as we mentioned we have some additional reliability equipment that we have had on order for a long time that needs to be installed and so we are planning to install it during that period of time with other maintenance that needs to be occurred and that will be done while that’s down for that installation. Joe Mondillo - Sidoti & Company: Okay. And then is there anything else, is that going to be, at this point in time is that only planned turnaround at Pryor for 2015?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Joe Mondillo with Sidoti & Company

Yes. Joe Mondillo - Sidoti & Company: Okay. And in terms of El Dorado, is there any more of an indication or can you be a little more clear on what the operating losses were at that plant in the third quarter?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Joe Mondillo with Sidoti & Company

We don’t disclose the operating income or loss by plant. But I think we gave a little guidance there and that we will spend $1.5 million for repair on the sulfuric acid plant. And the profitability on agricultural grade ammonium nitrate is very marginal. And as you know, the industrial side of business is cost-plus. Joe Mondillo - Sidoti & Company: Okay. In terms of ammonia prices rising this high, I know you guys are very flexible in terms of shifting production to a UAN standpoint or to an ammonia standpoint given how pricing is trending. With pricing rising this much with ammonia, I imagine you are shifting especially here in the fall, I imagine you are shifting end user production to more focus towards ammonia. In that case, is it more of a positive that ammonia prices are rising this much as Pryor and Cherokee benefit with a partial offset at El Dorado or are the El Dorado losses, do they overtake or overpower the benefit that you got at Pryor and Cherokee?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Joe Mondillo with Sidoti & Company

Well, at Cherokee, we are not a net ammonia seller. We use all the ammonia that we produced to create upgraded product, okay and many of those products we have commitments for with customers, particularly on the industrial side. So, we are not transferring or changing the production. At Pryor, okay, it occurs from time-to-time depending on the seasonality and the demand for UAN and their cost of ammonia.

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Joe Mondillo with Sidoti & Company

And we take advantage of that.

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Joe Mondillo with Sidoti & Company

Yes. And we take advantage of that from time-to-time. Joe Mondillo - Sidoti & Company: So, at this price of ammonia, are you net-net – was it a net-net benefit for your company with ammonia prices that’s high or is it a net negative given the losses that you are seeing at El Dorado?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Joe Mondillo with Sidoti & Company

It isn’t negative. We use more ammonia than we sell. Joe Mondillo - Sidoti & Company: Okay. Alright, thank you. That’s all I have for now.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question.

Keith Maher - Singular Research

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

Good morning. I don’t think you touched on this, but with regard to the pull forward of the maintenance at El Dorado, what was the nature of that and I don’t think you have also mentioned El Dorado planned maintenance for next year, so you can share that….

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

There was primarily just some repair on the sulfuric acid plant, which is not a major part of our – sulfuric acid is an important part of the business, because it exports steam, but from a sales top line standpoint, there is not real significance from a repair on the sulfuric acid plant for about $1.5 million.

Keith Maher - Singular Research

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

And what’s the planned turnaround for El Dorado next year?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

We don’t see major turnaround.

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

Yes, they do partial – they take an acid plant. They have got four acid plants there. They take the acid plants down from time-to-time, but not concurrently.

Keith Maher - Singular Research

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, great.

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

It won’t be a major turnaround with the whole plant. There hasn’t been for years. They take a section at a time.

Keith Maher - Singular Research

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, that’s helpful. With regard to the strength you are seeing just on the climate control business, it obviously looks like it’s on the commercial side is there any area in particular or is it across the board?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

Well, right now it’s generally across the board in all the vertical markets that we serve. I can’t say that it’s concentrated in any one particular part of the business. Although if you will notice in the presentation, we did discuss on Page 26 of the presentation, what’s going on the general trends and I would say that what our sales force is seeing pretty much mirrors the general trends that are reported in the industry. So, we are seeing an uptick in multi-family. We are seeing uptick in education, which is a big sector for us and office less of an uptick, although we are seeing it, but it’s a smaller sector for us. And of the sectors that we follow, the one that is – we are also seeing an uptick in lodging, but it is a smaller sector and the ones on this page that are probably the least important to us is manufacturing and it’s not – we are not really seeing an uptick there too much right now.

Keith Maher - Singular Research

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. And just one other climate control business question, the gross margin I think you said it was negatively impacted a little bit in the quarter just due to product and customer mix, could you give any more color there?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

Well, if you will notice that our sales of our other cat – and what we call other was up higher than in what we consider to be our core products which are fan coils and heat pumps and typically that carries a lower margin than the fan coil and heat pump products. Also as a result of having a lower OEM mix, we have higher costs that are – variable selling costs that are typically attached to non-OEM business, but are not attached to OEM business.

Keith Maher - Singular Research

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

Yes, that makes sense. But wouldn’t you – I understand the additional costs but I guess you would be getting a better margin I would think just because you are not selling it to an OEM at a better price?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

But that would affect the margin and I was really addressing variable costs which are carried below the margin line when I talked about that.

Keith Maher - Singular Research

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, alright. Thanks. I will jump back in line.

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Keith Maher with Singular Research. Please go ahead with your question

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) The next question is from the line of David Fondrie with Heartland. Please go ahead with your question.

David Fondrie - Heartland

Analyst · David Fondrie with Heartland. Please go ahead with your question

Yes. Good morning.

Jack Golsen

Analyst · David Fondrie with Heartland. Please go ahead with your question

Hi David.

David Fondrie - Heartland

Analyst · David Fondrie with Heartland. Please go ahead with your question

I was curious that volumes were certainly down on the agricultural side. And yet, as I look at the balance sheet finished goods inventories increased for the quarter ended September 30 over the June 30 numbers, can you help us understand why you couldn’t have sold more volume, I am not sure what that finished goods inventory is but it would seem that it would be good time to deplete some inventory at times you have lower production?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · David Fondrie with Heartland. Please go ahead with your question

I am sorry would you repeat?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · David Fondrie with Heartland. Please go ahead with your question

Why our inventory is up at the end of September versus June since we were down so long and sales volumes were down. So, we have an increase in cost of inventory at the end of September although sales were down. A lot of that has to do with timing of your purchase and work in process in terms of where the sales are and building some inventory coming into the period and coming out of the period. There is no real – there is really no trend there in our past history but that’s a good question, I will take and look at that and see if there is a specific build up.

David Fondrie - Heartland

Analyst · David Fondrie with Heartland. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. I appreciate that. And then you talked about perhaps moving some ammonia from Pryor to Cherokee to mitigate the cost of the high-priced Cherokee ammonia, can you talk about how do you do it, you take that by truck and is it really economical and can you actually move that kind of volume across there?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · David Fondrie with Heartland. Please go ahead with your question

I think more specifically the ammonia is moving from Pryor to El Dorado to offset the high cost of purchased ammonia at a Tampa price – Tampa index purchase price. So the majority of the ammonia that we transported from Pryor to El Dorado and that offset the – that gave us a better opportunity to sell the agricultural grade ammonium nitrate at a margin. And it moved by truck.

David Fondrie - Heartland

Analyst · David Fondrie with Heartland. Please go ahead with your question

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question.

Gregg Hillman - First Wilshire

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Yes, good morning gentlemen. Barry first can you talk about the contribution margin from the incremental sales in climate control at this point, what do you think it would be?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Well, we don’t really disclose that as a specific number and it varies by business, it varies by product line actually. So it’s hard to really – it’s hard to throw that an accurate number out that’s across the board for the entire business.

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Great. You can say this your absorbing overhead, more overheads and plus your margin.

Gregg Hillman - First Wilshire

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Then what percentage of the cost associated with climate control are fix and what percentage are variable?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

We typically think that about 65% to 70% of the costs are variable in that business.

Gregg Hillman - First Wilshire

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, okay, thanks. And then also in terms of the pricing on Page 29 of the slide deck, you showed the sales volume outlook, but on I think it was Page 17, your pricing, I don’t think you gave pricing industrial mining and other like for nitric acid, what’s the price of the nitric acid, for example, for the other items on for Slide 29, what’s the current price for the industrial mining and other ones currently?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

All of our industrial products are sold by specific contract and they are different for each contract. And those contracts are all confidential and we have non-disclosure agreements with most of our customers relating to the prices that we sell at. So, we don’t disclose that, but I would say to you that low density ammonium nitrate for the mining sector is essentially the same as high-density ammonium nitrate for the ag sector. So, there is somewhat comparability there in terms of selling price.

Gregg Hillman - First Wilshire

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. And when you – when the Orca contract gets extinguished, will you be just selling kind of on the market for some of the chemicals they go into explosives or?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Well, what we are trying to do now and what we have done so far is lineup other long-term contract – medium to long term contracts with other customers to replace that business, but instead of having one large customer, we will have multiple smaller customers.

Gregg Hillman - First Wilshire

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. And just another question on pricing maybe you could refresh my memory, but that cash you are buying from Northwestern Pennsylvania what’s your contracted price there?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

There is no contracted price. It’s market from time-to-time, whatever the market will give you and right now the market price is lower than Henry Hub, because of constraints on the pipeline.

Gregg Hillman - First Wilshire

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. So, it’s just really a guaranteed supply, not necessarily a guaranteed price?

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

We are just – I mean, we are just selling the gas above our costs as a hedge against our cost of gas at the other locations, but there is no relationship between the gas that’s produced there and what we actually take off the pipe at the other locations.

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

For clarification, if you don’t mind me jumping in here, were you asking about what our cost was or what our selling price was?

Gregg Hillman - First Wilshire

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

I guess, I was thinking that, that would affect, it’s really just a hedge. I was thinking that you could just like trade gas that’s sold in Pennsylvania for gas that you buy in Texas and get a lower price something like that?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Well, that’s true, but as Tony mentioned that we do not always get full Henry Hub price for what is sold out of the Marcellus shale, primarily due to distribution constraints in that area which we anticipate over time would be alleviated. And the best way to look at that is the spread between our cost and the selling price we give for the gas is basically a reduction of our gas cost at the two ammonia plants.

Gregg Hillman - First Wilshire

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. And then finally, Barry, you made some comments about China and the urea situation there, what percentage of – well how much urea or is China exporting right now over the last quarter versus quarter prior and what’s I mean, do you have any particular outlook and how can one get information about that?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

We don’t really sell urea. That’s not a product that we sell. So, I am not as plugged in to the total urea sales as we are with our other products. We mentioned that, because since it is a nitrogen product, it does have an effect on the overall nitrogen market. So, I don’t have the answer to your question in front of me. I could get that information, it’s public, but I just don’t have it in front of me right now.

Gregg Hillman - First Wilshire

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, thanks very much. And then just one other thing on Page 17, where you gave the prices, is there seasonality to the prices for UAN, ammonia, anhydrous, like is October a seasonally high price or where would that be relative to the seasonality of the price of the various fertilizers, for example?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

For everything you read indicates that there is usually a fall season on ammonia and ammonia price demand is up and prices are up and then subsequently later on in the spring, it converts to UAN. Right now, what we are seeing is that there has been a delayed application of ammonia. And we will see when and if that picks up, if ammonia for some reason, they put out less ammonia, it will just be transferred to UAN later in the year – later in the season.

Gregg Hillman - First Wilshire

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. And then how does the ammonia thing affect the UAN prices right now?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Well, I think somebody mentioned, there is a disconnect right now. Ammonia is significantly higher than the transfer of that cost into the UAN will give you a new sales price from UAN. So, UAN is not recovering that increase in ammonia right now, but there is also UAN season hasn’t really hit its full stride.

Gregg Hillman - First Wilshire

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Okay.

Jack Golsen

Analyst · Gregg Hillman with First Wilshire. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Sanjay Ayer with Citi. Please go ahead with your question.

Sanjay Ayer - Citi

Analyst · Sanjay Ayer with Citi. Please go ahead with your question

Hi. Just a couple of quick questions from me, when you eventually get the ammonia plant up and running, can you give us some sort of a sense of how that will positively impact your gross margins maybe like improvement in basis points or something like that?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Sanjay Ayer with Citi. Please go ahead with your question

I am sorry, could you repeat the question?

Sanjay Ayer - Citi

Analyst · Sanjay Ayer with Citi. Please go ahead with your question

Just when you have the ammonia plant up and running, what kind of improvement in gross margin are you expecting just overall?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Sanjay Ayer with Citi. Please go ahead with your question

Well, currently, there is a very significant spread between the purchased ammonia and cost to produce ammonia. There is going to be a significant differential in terms of the gross margin when products come out of El Dorado. I think previously we have indicated that we thought they would get incremental EBITDA of about $90 million and a 15% to 17% internal rate of return, but on this investment, time will tell in terms of what ammonia prices do going forward given all the additional expansion coming on in about 3 years.

Sanjay Ayer - Citi

Analyst · Sanjay Ayer with Citi. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. And can you give us an idea of how EBITDA was impacted for I guess the extra 7 days that you didn’t have the Cherokee running, just so we can see how much off that impacted versus the plan?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Sanjay Ayer with Citi. Please go ahead with your question

I guess, if you took 7 over 42 times, the $6.9 million, you would get something close to that, I don’t know it. It’s almost basically so much a day of downtime.

Sanjay Ayer - Citi

Analyst · Sanjay Ayer with Citi. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. So, basically if we just use Slide 9 that’s pretty much the impacts that we saw if we want to get back into the EBITDA?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Sanjay Ayer with Citi. Please go ahead with your question

Except for the maintenance costs, you have to – I am not sure if that would be transferable, but generally you are right.

Sanjay Ayer - Citi

Analyst · Sanjay Ayer with Citi. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. And last question anything, any sort of update on the strategic review drop-downs separating business anything?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Sanjay Ayer with Citi. Please go ahead with your question

Well, that’s being undertaken by a strategic committee and the strategic committee at some point will report to the board. So, we are not going to get ahead of the strategic committee and try to – they are working hard, but we are not going to – but we are not going to get ahead of that.

Sanjay Ayer - Citi

Analyst · Sanjay Ayer with Citi. Please go ahead with your question

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, there are no additional questions. I would like to turn the floor back to management for closing comments.

Jack Golsen - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Well, we would like to thank you for participating today. And I would like to turn the call at this time over to Carol Oden with some closing comments, particularly relating to forward-looking statements.

Carol Oden - Investor Relations

Management

Information reported on this call speaks only as of today, November 7, 2014 and therefore you are advised that time-sensitive information may no longer be accurate at the time of any replay. The comments today and the information contained in presentation materials contain certain forward-looking statements. All these statements, other than statements of historical facts, are forward-looking statements. Statements that include the words expect, intend, plan, believe, project, anticipate, estimate or similar expressions or statements of the future or forward-looking statement nature are identified as forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, all statements about or in reference to the Architectural Building Index or any McGraw-Hill forecast, any references to future natural gas costs and ammonia costs and outlook for the chemical or climate control business. The forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to the following statements: higher overall on-stream production rates and profitability in the future; improvement in the business; commercial and institutional construction improving; the fourth quarter of 2014 to be much improved; all of our plans will be producing; build momentum as the trends for this business continues to improve; ammonia production at our Pryor facilities with full year of 2014 will be double over 2013 and we expect production to increase again in 2015; improving results in the fourth quarter of 2014 and for 2015; planned maintenance will result in significant improvement and on on-stream production in the fourth quarter of 2014 and in 2015; expect to de-lever once the expansion projects are complete; the coverage ratios will remain low until after the expansion projects would come online; total cash and investment will continue to decline during 2014 and 2015; total planned capital expenditures for this period; total estimated expansion project capital spending will be funded by our cash and investments both current and non-current;…

Operator

Operator

You may disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation.