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Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN)

Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 7, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Lumen Technologies Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Tuesday, February 7, 2023. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mike McCormack, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Mike McCormack

Analyst · Philip Cusick from JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Thank you and good afternoon, everyone and thank you for joining us for the Lumen Technologies fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. Joining me on the call today are Kate Johnson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Stansbury, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our Safe Harbor statement on Slide 2 of our fourth quarter 2022 presentation, which notes that this conference call may include forward-looking statements subject to certain risks and uncertainties. All forward-looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statements on Slide 2 and the Risk Factors in our SEC filings. We will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most comparable GAAP measures that can be found on our earnings press release. In addition, certain metrics discussed today exclude costs for special items as detailed in our earnings materials, all of which can be found on the Investor Relations section of the Lumen website. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Kate.

Kate Johnson

Analyst · Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Thanks Mike. Good afternoon, everyone and thanks for joining us today. In a few minutes, Chris will cover our fourth quarter results and discuss 2023 outlook measures. Let me begin by saying how excited I am to be here at Lumen during such a pivotal time in our company’s history. I have a passion for leading businesses through the challenging world of digital transformation. It’s what I’ve been doing for a few decades and it’s where I feel most comfortable. And while it’s only been 3 months since I joined Lumen, I already feel at home. I have had the opportunity to get to know many of our employees, customers and partners. And I have spent time understanding our business processes, our proprietary gifts and our go-to-market capabilities. I can tell you that I see a very significant opportunity for Lumen and its stakeholders. That said, there is hard work ahead for our team as we make significant changes to how we serve our customers and how we execute for better financial results. 2023 will be a year of rapid change for Lumen as we execute on our plans and pivot towards growth. As with any successful transformation, it’s essential to get the right talent and I am delighted to report the addition of three seasoned technology executives to the Lumen team. Sham Chotai has been appointed Executive Vice President of Product and Technology, running our newly integrated product development and IT organizations. Ashley Haynes Gaspar has been appointed Lumen’s Executive Vice President and Customer Experience Officer, running our marketing functions as well as customer success. And Jay Barrows has been appointed Executive Vice President of Enterprise and Public Sector sales. With the addition of these three executives to the team, we infuse deep digital transformation leadership, product development and…

Chris Stansbury

Analyst · Philip Cusick from JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Thank you, Kate and good afternoon everyone. To start, I hope you had a chance to review the 8-K we filed on January 27, which provides modified financial information back to first quarter of ‘21, removing the impact of the ILEC and LATAM businesses as well as the impact of the CAF II program. The 8-K also outlined the new business sales channel reporting structure for 2023 reporting, which collapsed IGAM into large enterprise and pulled public sector out of large enterprise. This provides better alignment with how we manage these channels internally and should provide for more clarity when modeling our company. Let me move on to discuss some macro thoughts. Later in my remarks, I will address our outlook for full year 2023, but near-term, we continue to face macro headwinds. Supply chains remains strained with labor as the key headwind and we are all facing the impacts of inflation. In addition, we are actively working to offset dissynergies, resulting from the divestiture of our 20-state ILEC business as well as our LATAM business, but those headwinds are likely to persist through this year. Despite these near-term pressures, this is an exciting time for Lumen and our team. Kate has energized our company and we are positioning Lumen to win. This will require internal systems and process investments to solidify our platform, pivot to a position of playing offense and enable us to grow. I will discuss the impact of these investments later in my remarks. With that, I will move to the financial summary of our fourth quarter results. I will be referencing results on a modified basis, which aligns with the 8-K disclosures mentioned earlier and removes the impact of the divested businesses that closed during 2022 as well as the impact of the CAF II…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question is from the line of Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Simon Flannery

Analyst · Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Great. Thank you very much. Kate thanks for all of the positioning of the company and the opportunities. Help us understand the path to revenue and EBITDA stability. I know we’ve got the Analyst Day coming up, but what sort of milestones should we be looking for during 2023 to suggest that things are improving? Do you think there’ll be an inflection in the rate of revenue decline, rate of EBITDA decline? How do we get comfortable that you are on this path to turn this around within a couple of years? And then on the fiber side of things, could you just talk a little bit about how the BEAD program fits into your expectations given you’re kind of sort of less aggressive posture towards Quantum? Is BEAD something that’s interest to you at this moment? Thanks.

Kate Johnson

Analyst · Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Sure. Thanks, Simon. So first and foremost, 2023 is a reset year. So we talked about new leadership. We talked about a new mission. We talked about new priorities. And it’s going to take us some time to get rolling. I think we bring a couple of things to the story that we haven’t done before. The first is injecting energy into the growth engine in the form of marketing, in the form of disciplined sales approach at the high end of the market, really an execution focus and mindset with some of the new leaders that I’m bringing in. So I’m excited about that, and I think that we will get some early traction in the form of things like funnel and pipeline. I think that the story of 2-year stabilization is really, as we go into ‘24, we’re going to have sort of the green shoots to show you more explicitly. With respect to your question about BEAD, our projection this year is – or our projection for about 8 million to 12 million enablements in total doesn’t include any BEAD funding. And BEAD is super early. The funds haven’t started flowing yet. So we really don’t know how that story is going to pan out, but it does represent a potential upside to our story.

Simon Flannery

Analyst · Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Great. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from the line of Philip Cusick from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Philip Cusick

Analyst · Philip Cusick from JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Hi, thank you. Following up first on the enterprise space, the $150 million to $200 million in investment, can you just dig more into that? And how much of that is sort of one-time in terms of new ERP investment versus ongoing costs? And how should we think about the potential for revenue and EBITDA growth in business over a long period of time? If we go back to the underlying market, is this a growing market or is it a shrinking market that you need to take share in? Thanks very much.

Kate Johnson

Analyst · Philip Cusick from JPMorgan. Please go ahead

So great question. Our pivot is about moving from a place of playing defense to offense. Where – I talked about changing mindset to really obsess about customers, that’s about finding new problems and addressing them with both our existing capabilities as well as building a capability to address those problems with net new capabilities, either build, buy or partnering. And if you think about it, customers are dealing with these giant problems, it’s the usual stuff, cost-effective core operations, how do I get my employees to thrive? How do I secure my data and applications? How do I drive business process improvement? How do I innovate for my customers? But they are doing all of that in the hybrid world, which basically hybrid meaning, working from home or working from the locations that have been in place for years. As all of that changes the complexity of their networking solution needs is changing as well, and that represents a huge opportunity for us. But I think we all know that we really need to sort of glide up the stack a bit and really lean into both security and edge in order to drive net new growth on top of that core networking solution set that we have. Chris, do you want to add anything to that?

Chris Stansbury

Analyst · Philip Cusick from JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Yes. So – hey, Phil. The – in terms of what the spending is focused on, we talked about it a bit, but we’ve got to digitize more of what we do end to end, so that, that customer experience is more seamless and self-serve wherever possible. We’ve got to continue to simplify and really stop doing some things, automate some things, which will allow us to get it to dissynergies, but makes us easier to do business with. And the ERP is one piece of that. And then beyond that, we’ve obviously got to invest in things that are going to drive growth, things that would allow us to enable network as a service, for example. So really understanding where the network is so that customers can quickly access it and deploy from there. So that’s what’s in there, but none of those things will be complete this year. I referenced in my comments that this is probably a 2-year journey in terms of spend. As it relates to why we think we can get to revenue and EBITDA stabilization by the end of next year, I want to be really clear. That’s based off of the things we have today. So when Kate talked about growth OS, that’s extra. That’s kind of supercharging the growth down the road. But with what we have today, I think we can very accurately say that from a product and sales standpoint, we were not executing as cleanly as we could have. And there is renewed focus. There is a lot more rigor behind the connectivity between product and our selling efforts. And frankly, there is some low-hanging fruit that we can go after. So I’m not going to sit here and tell you that it’s fixed by second half of this year. That’s why we said by the end of next year. But I can tell you that the reason we said that is we’ve got line of sight given what we have in-house today.

Philip Cusick

Analyst · Philip Cusick from JPMorgan. Please go ahead

If I can follow-up and forgive me this – I don’t mean to sound disrespectful at all, but we’ve heard from Lumen and the predecessor companies for 12 years about the new changes and plans and how things are going to turn around. And I know you have an Analyst Day coming up in June, and you’ve only, really, as a team, been together for a little while. Is there anything that’s sort of dramatically changing under the hood that can start to give us some faith that this business is really turning as opposed to what feels like another iteration of things that we’ve heard before?

Kate Johnson

Analyst · Philip Cusick from JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Yes. So I’m here now, and I’m excited to be here now because there is a huge opportunity. And one of the things that I’m bringing to the table is this maniacal focus on execution. And I think that, that’s a really important shift. I think when you think about the pivot to growth, you need to think about Lumen as a collection of companies that was trying to drive synergy from a bunch of mergers, and was inwardly focused on driving operational efficiency. Every dollar of revenue looked good because as a potential contributor to EBITDA, and every dollar of cost take-out look good. But there was no anchoring North Star. There was no customer obsession. There was no really focusing on how do we innovate for growth. And we hadn’t been in a position to invest in our go-to-market engine, everything from marketing to sales and sales support and customer success. And now we are, right? The capital allocation priorities that we set for the company now enable all of that. And the leaders that I’m bringing in from technology, combined with the leaders that are already here at Lumen that really know this business, the combination is going to be incredibly powerful. It’s a really exciting time.

Philip Cusick

Analyst · Philip Cusick from JPMorgan. Please go ahead

That’s helpful. Thank you.

Mike McCormack

Analyst · Philip Cusick from JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Thanks, Phil. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from the line of David Barden with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

David Barden

Analyst · David Barden with Bank of America. Please go ahead

Hey, guys. Thank you so much for taking the questions. And Kate, congrats on the new job, and welcome to the mosh pit. So I guess I got a few, if I could. I guess, Chris, you’ve been talking about disrupting legacy declines. If you could be more specific about what that really means? And then Kate, you talked about a priority being radically simplifying. Does that mean that there is more strategic stuff to come in terms of the asset base that we’re looking at inside Lumen today? And if I could ask a third. I apologize. Chris, with respect to the stock buyback of $200 million in the fourth quarter, could you walk us through kind of whose idea that was and how you landed on that being the right choice for allocating capital? Thank you.

Chris Stansbury

Analyst · David Barden with Bank of America. Please go ahead

Yes, sure. So the first question really on kind of how we can disrupt the growth trajectory of legacy products. Look, the historical motion, I think, broadly in telecom is sell things until they die. And hopefully, that new thing, you can sell more of that. What is absent from that is a customer lifetime value mindset. And there is this fear of cannibalization. And I want to be really loud in saying cannibalization is good because if you can keep that customer for longer and you can manage that migration, you’re going to be much better off. So what we’re talking about is aggressively managing end-of-life products, moving customers up the stack. So think about legacy voice, right? Think about things like customers who are nearing the end of a VPN contract who don’t want to renew, but there is IP and ways out there, and we can wrap security around it. So more proactively addressing those migrations and that’s something that hasn’t been a key focus and I think that’s some of the low-hanging fruit I talked about. As it relates to the buyback, look, there was a big change. And you and I have had conversations about it. We’ve had conversations with your peers about it and other investors. It was a tough decision. But it was guided by the fact that the way we solidify Lumen’s performance for all of our stakeholders going forward is by getting back to growth. And so cutting the dividend did that. In the near-term, we knew that there were index funds and other investors who relied on that dividend to have an ownership position in Lumen. And so we bought back stock around the time that those index funds were rebalancing to support the stock through those big shifts. And so that was the thinking in terms of how we manage that in the fourth quarter.

Kate Johnson

Analyst · David Barden with Bank of America. Please go ahead

And David, do you want to – you asked a question about simplification. Could you repeat it? I didn’t hear some of it.

David Barden

Analyst · David Barden with Bank of America. Please go ahead

Yes. Kate, the question was within the confines of the – I think, the fourth priority like radical simplification of the business, I think the streamlining of processes and that sort of thing, I think, is kind of one side of the interpretation of what that might look like. Another side might be further asset divestitures, other kinds of strategic types of things and stones that have not been turned over to-date? Thanks.

Kate Johnson

Analyst · David Barden with Bank of America. Please go ahead

Yes. I mean the two sort of pieces of it, as I discussed, was going to be understanding how we could do fewer things better, I think, is what I said. And with this mindset around simplification of our product portfolio, we’ve had a proliferation of SKUs. And when you think about the proliferation of IT systems through all the mergers to support those SKUs, both sides of the equation, simplification of what we sell as well as how we sell it, that’s the winning formula. So, those were – that was the intention of our remarks. Regarding the overall strategy, I think if you keep coming back to our mission statement, to digitally connect people, data and applications quickly, securely and effortlessly, anything that we do will strategically map directly to that statement.

David Barden

Analyst · David Barden with Bank of America. Please go ahead

Great. I understand. Thank you so much.

Mike McCormack

Analyst · David Barden with Bank of America. Please go ahead

Thanks David. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Greg Williams with Cowen & Co. Please go ahead.

Greg Williams

Analyst · Greg Williams with Cowen & Co. Please go ahead

Great. Thanks for taking my questions and echoing the congrats, Kate. My first question is just on what are the larger puts and takes on the range – $200 million range of your guidance that determines the low end and the high end? And then second question is just on the reduction of your Quantum Fiber forecast. I believe I heard it’s been a 500,000 enablement. What’s your comfort level on the fears of third-party overbuilders coming in as you are not building? Is that sort of contemplated in the fact that you have now reduced your overall build from $12 million down to $8 million to $10 million and those third-party overbuilders, it is just coming over build in that territory? Thanks.

Chris Stansbury

Analyst · Greg Williams with Cowen & Co. Please go ahead

Hey Greg, it’s Chris. In terms of the guidance range, I would say that the pieces that I spend more time being concerned about are the things, frankly, that are beyond our control, things like the inflationary environment and just the broader macro. So, I would say that’s probably the biggest piece of the variability. I can tell you that the guidance is mapped directly back to things like sales quotas, and the way we pay people for performance has changed as well. So, all of that is designed to drive us to where that guidance is. But it’s really around the things beyond our control that move us to between the high and the low. As it relates to the Quantum piece, I mean I think your point is a valid one, and that’s obviously I think a risk. But – and frankly, I think you can even see it in some of the penetration numbers from 2021. I was very concerned about putting fiber in the ground for the sake of putting fiber in the ground, right. We need to make sure that we remain focused on those large metros that we have talked about and that we stop being so focused on a cost per enablement and on a number of enablements and more around making sure that in those markets that we are serving, that customers are going to want our product. And so I think even though this is a little bit painful in the near-term, we are seeing really good performance on our planning yield, meaning when we plan a market and it goes to engineering and then it comes out of engineering that we have been able to accurately estimate the cost so that we can proceed to construction rather than having to go back to planning all over again. So, we are seeing some really good activities internally. But I would much rather have this conversation today than one 5 years from now, where we hit $1,000, and we hit the 10 million enablements, and then you guys are asking me where the annuity stream is on all that fiber. And my own opinion, our opinion, is that I think you are going to see that from some of the overbuilders in markets that are building for the sake of building rather than really having a returns mindset around it.

Greg Williams

Analyst · Greg Williams with Cowen & Co. Please go ahead

Got it. Thank you.

Mike McCormack

Analyst · Greg Williams with Cowen & Co. Please go ahead

Thanks Greg. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from the line of Batya Levi from UBS. Please go ahead.

Batya Levi

Analyst · Batya Levi from UBS. Please go ahead

Great. Thank you. It looks like you are expecting another 10% decline in organic EBITDA this year aside from the impact from dissynergies and inflation and higher investments for growth. Can you provide a little bit more color on the drivers for that organic decline? Does that assume maybe worsening top line trends as we go through the transition, or is it more of a mix shift where growth is coming from lower margin services? Thank you.

Chris Stansbury

Analyst · Batya Levi from UBS. Please go ahead

Yes. Batya, it’s Chris. I think the key thing is we do have that grow bucket which is now the largest bucket. It’s not growing enough, okay. And that’s really where the focus is. So, the reason you see in total organic declines is that we have harvest and nurture buckets that are declining at high-single digit rates. Margin is really not a concern as we move into the grow bucket. We have disclosed that in the presentation. But when you look at our direct margins, it’s actually beneficial to us when we move into the grow products. So, it’s really about managing that migration because we still have roughly two-thirds of the business that’s declining at very high rates and how do we supercharge the grow bucket. So, the starting – the performance itself isn’t where we want it to be, but the starting point is actually pretty strong. We have got a good base there. So, I would say that’s one thing. The second thing is, obviously, we are in a tough macro environment where everybody is being very thoughtful about the money they spend. So, if you think about us doing a reset, we are doing it in a tough environment. So, I think both of those things combined are really what’s driving that.

Batya Levi

Analyst · Batya Levi from UBS. Please go ahead

Maybe just a quick follow-up, how should we think about the pacing of that EBITDA decline through the year? Is first half the trough because you have the dissynergies, or is that going to be offset as you ramp up investment for growth?

Chris Stansbury

Analyst · Batya Levi from UBS. Please go ahead

Look, I don’t want to get too scientific around that because we obviously have a lot of variability. For example, in our OpEx quarter-to-quarter, we have higher OpEx in the summer when it’s hotter and we are doing more construction. So, there is a lot of moving pieces in there. I would say the most important thing is that revenue number. And I think over time, we would like to be able to show you guys that the decline rate is slowing. And I think that’s going to be the first leading indicator that we are on our way to growth. And so I don’t want to predict when in the year you start to see that. Again, it’s a 2-year journey until we get to stabilization. But I would watch that over time, and I think that’s the best way to measure our success.

Batya Levi

Analyst · Batya Levi from UBS. Please go ahead

Okay. Thank you.

Mike McCormack

Analyst · Batya Levi from UBS. Please go ahead

Thanks Batya. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead.

Michael Rollins

Analyst · Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead

Thanks. Good afternoon. Curious if you could share a little bit more detail in terms of what’s happening currently in the sales cycle in the pipeline? And are you entering 2023 with a better backlog, just given some of the announcements that you have had over the past number of months, particularly in the public sector. And then just one other question. On the bridge regarding dissynergies, are those dissynergies isolated to the divestitures, or do those dissynergies encapsulate the decision to separate the operations of mass markets from the business segment? Thanks.

Kate Johnson

Analyst · Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead

Hey Mike, this is Kate. So, to address your question about what’s happening in the enterprise business, the first thing is from a public sector perspective, you are absolutely right. We have a healthy backlog, and we are excited about seeing a lot of that convert this year. Our pipeline continues to be steady and strong. And regarding enterprise decision-making, I think with the macroeconomic environment, we all see sort of more approvals required for purchases of technology. I think that plays right into the pivot that we are making where we need to be great at pitching our value story and how we can help customers address their most existential problems and help them get through those buying cycles. Chris?

Chris Stansbury

Analyst · Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead

Yes. And the dissynergies are really around the divestitures. It has nothing to do with ops. So obviously, there is corporate overhead that doesn’t go away when you sell off big chunks of EBITDA. But there is other efficiencies we can get to internally if we can automate some more things going forward. And that’s really where the focus is there on the dissynergies. Now, I will say that as we were talking about dissynergies last year, we actually thought they would be a little bit higher than where we are calling it for this year, and that’s because we have got some other cost savings initiatives going on internally that we think can start to eat away at that. So, that’s good.

Michael Rollins

Analyst · Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead

And one other follow-up, on the net debt leverage, you mentioned it could be 4 to 4.3. Is that the peak through this whole cycle of getting back towards your goal of EBITDA growth, or is there the potential for leverage to go even higher before it goes lower?

Chris Stansbury

Analyst · Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead

Yes. That is our estimated peak. And quite frankly, that excludes any assumption on the EMEA deal closing, because right now we are assuming that doesn’t happen until early next year. So, when that closes, obviously, those – given where leverage is, we said that we would – from a capital allocation standpoint, focus on growth and then manage leverage and buybacks dynamically. Obviously, with an exit leverage ratio that high, those proceeds would be focused on debt reduction, and that would bring us back down. But operationally, yes, we would expect that, that leverage is peak as we exit this year because we are doing, obviously, the spending that doesn’t give us all the benefits from that spending until we go forward and then some continued spending next year. But I would not expect it would go above that.

Michael Rollins

Analyst · Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead

Thanks.

Mike McCormack

Analyst · Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead

Thanks Mike. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from the line of Frank Louthan with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question.

Frank Louthan

Analyst · Frank Louthan with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question

Great. Thank you. How long do you think it will take to integrate the IT systems from the past mergers? And will you be integrating or changing any billing systems? That’s my first question. The second question, when you talk about getting rid of some of the businesses that you mentioned and don’t really support the growth, how many of the – how long will that take, given that some of these may still have longer term contractual obligations or regulatory obligations that may be harder to just eliminate? If you can give us some color on that, that would be great.

Kate Johnson

Analyst · Frank Louthan with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question

Neither one of these things are overnight stories. With respect to simplifying the IT infrastructure, it’s complex. We have a lens towards customer satisfaction, customer experience, and that’s driving our prioritization and how we actually do the planning as well as what’s the level of difficulty and how much will – how much can we do that will impact things in the short, medium and long-term. So, we are right at the planning stages of building the framework to be able to give you more clarity. The second piece of that was – what was the question?

Chris Stansbury

Analyst · Frank Louthan with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question

Around their products and sale of products.

Kate Johnson

Analyst · Frank Louthan with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question

The simplified – doing less and doing it better is the focus, obviously. When we talk about businesses that don’t accrete to the North Star, whenever we have customers, whenever we have revenue, whenever we have EBITDA, we have to be very thoughtful and use a product life cycle framework to evaluate how to move these customers to modern technologies and how to create a great customer experience in doing so, where they can get the benefit of more of our capabilities than maybe some of our partners as well. And that framework is something that is new to our teams in terms of taking a disciplined approach to simplifying and narrowing what we do every day. So, we are right in the early throes of doing that. We are not going to be turning anything on or off overnight without careful consideration.

Chris Stansbury

Analyst · Frank Louthan with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question

Yes. And Frank, I would only just add one quick thing there because I know you have been at this game a lot longer than Kate or I have, and that there has been a lot of disaster scenarios with billing systems so I want to address that head on. Part of what we are doing is really determining where we want the endpoint to be, because quite frankly, there – in some cases, there is going to be no business case for integrating old billing systems if the products that are supported by those billing systems are maturing out from a product life cycle standpoint. So, in the near-term, it’s really about simplifying what the customer sees, which may not deal with the front end. And then where we can deal with the front end in a seamless way, we will, or we will just migrate to the new thing as we build going forward. So, it’s complicated, as you well know, but we are not blindly running into a billing replacement program.

Frank Louthan

Analyst · Frank Louthan with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

Mike McCormack

Analyst · Frank Louthan with Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question

Thanks Frank. Next question.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from the line of Nick Del Deo with SVB MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead with your question.

Nick Del Deo

Analyst · Nick Del Deo with SVB MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead with your question

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I have one for Kate and one for Chris. Kate, your predecessor, Jeff, used to emphasize profitable growth and free cash flow per share as kind of the financial measures, he was most focused on. I saw the profitable growth got a mention in the deck. What other financial metrics are you going to be most focused on? And is there anything you need to do to get the organization aligned around them? And for Chris...

Kate Johnson

Analyst · Nick Del Deo with SVB MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead with your question

So…

Nick Del Deo

Analyst · Nick Del Deo with SVB MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead with your question

Sorry. Go ahead.

Kate Johnson

Analyst · Nick Del Deo with SVB MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead with your question

No, go ahead. Please ask your question.

Nick Del Deo

Analyst · Nick Del Deo with SVB MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead with your question

Yes. And I was going to say then for Chris, with respect to the growth and optimization spending, I think you said it’s a 2-year journey in terms of spend. I don’t want to ask for 2024 guidance, but if we think about that 2-year journey, should we expect heavier spending upfront with sort of a tapering over time, or should we think of that as being relatively even over the course of 2 years?

Kate Johnson

Analyst · Nick Del Deo with SVB MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead with your question

I will jump in first with respect to measurements for success. Look, there are two key measurements for success that we are holding ourselves accountable to in the North Star plan. The first is the ease of doing business for both employees and customers. And by the way, there is a one-to-one correlation between a great customer experience and a great employee experience, right. Making it easier for both is a win-win. It also materially influenced our design criteria around bringing product and technology together because the customer experience becomes the product that we are selling. The second main measurement which I have discussed is really profitable revenue growth. Now that said, that’s at the highest level. We have spent considerable time mapping the KPIs and the measurements, both financial and operational, to our mission statement to digitally connect people, data and applications quickly, securely, effortlessly. Those descriptors quickly, securely effortlessly, there are literally hundreds of metrics that we are going to be thinking about as we transform operations, as we intensify go-to-market, as we build all of the engines to execute for this company in a reliable way. And we have done so for our Business segment, for our Mass Market segment and for corporate as well. So, it’s a complex set. We can shine a little bit more light on that at Investor Day, but we are not short on KPIs for sure.

Chris Stansbury

Analyst · Nick Del Deo with SVB MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead with your question

Yes. And as it relates to the spend profile over the next couple of years, I would assume it’s relatively flat from year-to-year. And really, the key thinking behind that, Nick is, there is only so much we can do at once. And I think we are going as fast and as hard as we can. If we could do more now, I would so that we get to the finish line faster. But from an organizational capacity standpoint, particularly given the fact that we are still providing service agreements to the two divestitures last year, we are working on another big one this year, we just got to be careful. So, I would assume that next year, from a CapEx standpoint on those growth initiatives and simplification, it just looks a lot the same as this year.

Nick Del Deo

Analyst · Nick Del Deo with SVB MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. Thank you.

Mike McCormack

Analyst · Nick Del Deo with SVB MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead with your question

Thanks Nick. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from the line of Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Eric Luebchow

Analyst · Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

Thanks for taking the question and welcome, Kate, to the team. So, a question on the nurture bucket. We have seen that declining around 7% or 8% the last couple of quarters. And maybe you could help us understand how much of that is due to maybe substitution or cannibalization into other buckets like grow? How much of that you think is maybe more legacy in nature that eventually could churn off? And whether there is an opportunity there to maybe turn that trajectory into a better direction if you can price more aggressively like you have done in some of the harvest buckets? Thank you.

Chris Stansbury

Analyst · Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

Yes. I will take that. So, the harvest bucket declines have been aided, in part, by rerate activity. So, part of what we are doing there is looking at what can we do on cost, what can we do on managing re-rates. That – the benefits of kind of shifting more into growth, I would say, really haven’t started yet. That’s got a lot more life in it as we have gotten into 2023. So, I would say that, that’s yet to come. As it relates to nurture, there is really not been much in the way of rerate activity there. I think that’s something we can do. And nurture is probably the harder of the two because if you think about something like VPN, we have a lot of customers that like the VPN they have or they have recently signed VPN contracts because it meets their need today. It’s really the VPN customers that are more at an end of contract and don’t want to continue with that where we have the opportunity. So, we have got to get a little more clarity around what we think those longer term growth rates can look like. We have an opinion on that. I think it’s a little early to share that, but that’s something we would certainly provide some more color on at the Investor Day.

Eric Luebchow

Analyst · Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

Thanks Chris.

Mike McCormack

Analyst · Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

Thanks Eric. Jen, we have got time for just one more question.

Operator

Operator

Our final question is from the line of Brett Feldman from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Brett Feldman

Analyst · Brett Feldman from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Thanks for squeezing me in and welcome, Kate. If I go back to the deck, can you talk about sort of the updated fiber addressability opportunity, the 8 million to 10 million locations. When that’s complete, that would still represent, I think a little less than half of the locations that are in your landline footprint at this point in time. How are you thinking about managing the portion of the footprint that’s not on the upgrade path? Is there a meaningful amount of revenue and EBITDA coming out of those markets right now? And there is obviously a lot of legacy fixed costs embedded in that area. Is that something you can start taking out now, or is it going to be a little further down the road when you get those savings? Thank you.

Chris Stansbury

Analyst · Brett Feldman from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Yes. I will take that, Brett. The – when you look at our existing footprint, we have obviously still got a lot of areas that are rural. And as we have said, our plans for Quantum are dense urban areas and major metros. And that remains. We are not going to be looking to run fiber to lower density areas because the numbers just don’t make sense. As it relates to those areas, though, they – their overall performance has been more stable than the 20 states that we have sold. So, the performance there has been good. We will manage that very closely for things like rates and costs as time goes on. But at this point, those are assets that are attractive to us, and we will continue to manage them closely.

Brett Feldman

Analyst · Brett Feldman from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Mike McCormack

Analyst · Brett Feldman from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Thanks Brett. I am going to turn it over to Kate for closing comments.

Kate Johnson

Analyst · Brett Feldman from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

So, I just want to say thank you for the warm welcome for everybody. Thanks for the great questions. And thanks for joining today. I hope you come away with the same level of excitement that I have for this great business. The investments we are going to make over the next couple of years are the right ones to position us for our very, very bright future. And I look forward to sharing more about the journey with you and all of our goals for the next few years when we host our Investor Day in June. And with that, we will end the call.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Kate. We would like to thank everyone for your participation and using Lumen conferencing service today. This does conclude the conference call. We ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a great day, everyone.