Meghan Frank
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thanks, Andre. I'll now turn to our Q4 financial review and guidance outlook. For Q4, total net revenue rose 1% to $3.6 billion. Excluding the 53rd week in Q4 of 2024, net revenue rose 6% or 4% on a constant currency basis and comparable sales increased 2%. Within our regions and channels, excluding the 53rd week and in constant currency, results were as follows: North America revenue was flat with comparable sales down 2%. By country, revenue increased 3% in Canada and was down 1% in the U.S. In China Mainland, revenue increased 28% with comparable sales increasing 26%. Results were stronger than anticipated despite 2 discrete calendar shifts, which negatively impacted Q4, including earlier 11/11 events on our third-party e-commerce platform and the shift of Chinese New Year into Q1. Guests responded well to our product assortment with particular strength in outerwear and lounge. And in the Rest of World, revenue grew by 12% and comparable sales increased by 5%. In our store channel, sales were down 1%. We ended the quarter with a total of 811 stores globally. Square footage increased 11% versus last year driven by the addition of 44 net new lululemon stores since Q4 of 2024. During the quarter, we opened 15 net new stores and completed 7 optimizations. In our digital channel, revenues increased 9% and contributed $1.9 billion of top line. And by category, men's revenue increased 3% versus last year, women's increased 7%, and accessories and others grew 4%. Gross profit for the fourth quarter was $2 billion or 54.9% of net revenue compared to 60.4% in Q4 2024. Our gross margin decreased 550 basis points relative to last year and was driven primarily by the following: a 560 basis point decline in overall product margin, driven predominantly by tariff impact and higher markdowns. Tariffs had a gross negative impact of 520 basis points in the quarter, offset by 110 basis points related to our enterprise efficiency initiatives, while markdowns increased by 130 basis points. Deleverage on fixed cost was 30 basis points and foreign exchange had 40 basis points of favorable impact. Relative to our guidance for gross margin decline of approximately 580 basis points, the upside was driven primarily by a lower tariff impact and regional mix. Moving to SG&A. Our approach continues to be grounded in prudently managing our expenses while also continuing to strategically invest in our long-term growth opportunities. SG&A expenses were approximately $1.2 billion or 32.5% of net revenue compared to 31.5% of net revenue for the same period last year. The SG&A increase of 100 basis points was in line with our guidance and relates primarily to the negative impact of foreign exchange, fixed cost deleverage and ongoing investments to build brand awareness. These were partially offset by our ongoing initiatives to prudently manage costs across the enterprise. Operating income for the quarter was approximately $812 million, or 22.3% of net revenue compared to 28.9% of net revenue in Q4 2024. Tax expense for the quarter was $226 million or 27.8% of pretax earnings compared to an effective tax rate of 29.2% a year ago. The decrease in the effective tax rate relates primarily to a discrete tax benefit realized in the quarter and foreign exchange. The lower tax rate relative to our guidance contributed $0.15 to EPS. Net income for the quarter was $587 million or $5.01 per diluted share compared to earnings per diluted share of $6.14 for the fourth quarter of 2024. Capital expenditures were approximately $183 million for the quarter compared to approximately $235 million in the fourth quarter last year. Q4 spend relates primarily to investments to support business growth, including our investments in distribution centers, store capital for new locations, relocations and renovations, and technology investments. Turning to our balance sheet highlights. We ended the quarter with $1.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents and nearly $600 million of available capacity under our revolving credit facility. Inventory at the end of Q4 was $1.7 billion, an increase of 18% on a dollar basis. On a unit basis, inventory increased approximately 6%, below our guidance for an increase in the high single digits. The difference between dollar inventory growth and unit inventory growth relates predominantly to higher tariff rates relative to last year and foreign exchange. We are pleased with the composition of our inventory as we entered the spring season, as it is more reflective of our go-forward vision for the brand. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 1.4 million shares at an average price of $188. For the full year, we repurchased $1.2 billion of stock. Let me now shift to our guidance outlook for 2026. As I mentioned, we are executing against our action plan, with particular emphasis on driving healthier full-price sales in North America. We're already seeing green shoots related to our new product launches and our recent brand activations. But I want to also acknowledge that an improvement in overall trends in North America will likely progress over the course of the year and into 2027 as we return to a healthier baseline of full-price sales. Let me also mention tariffs. For reference, in 2025, gross tariff costs were $275 million. We were able to offset approximately $62 million of this expense through our mitigation strategies, which was better than our initial expectations. Looking to 2026, we anticipate gross tariff impact of approximately $380 million with offsets from our enterprise efficiency initiatives of approximately $160 million within gross margin. Turning to our full year 2026 guidance outlook. We expect revenue to be in the range of $11.35 billion to $11.5 billion, representing growth of 2% to 4% relative to 2025. By region, we expect revenue in North America to be down 1% to 3%, with the U.S. down 1% to 3%. Baked into our total revenue guidance for North America is an improvement in full-price sales. We are already seeing better full-price selling relative to Q4, and we'd expect positive year-over-year growth in full price to begin in Q2 and continue into the second half, driven by the rollout of new styles, innovations and core updates over the course of the year. We expect revenue in China Mainland to be up approximately 20%, which takes into account our outperformance in 2025. Trends remained strong in Q1, and we're expecting a revenue increase of 25% to 30%, which includes a modest lift from the shift of Chinese New Year into the quarter. And in Rest of World, we expect revenue to increase in the mid-teens. Globally, we expect to open approximately 40 to 45 net new company-operated stores in 2026 and complete approximately 35 optimizations. This will contribute to overall square footage growth in the low double digits. Our new store openings in 2026 will include approximately 15 stores in North America including 8 in Mexico and 25 to 30 in our international markets, with the majority of these planned for China. While we are taking a disciplined approach to capital spending, we continue to see good returns from new store openings and store expansions as these strategies contribute to an improved shopping experience for existing guests, new guest acquisition, building brand awareness and community engagement. For the full year, we expect gross margin to decrease approximately 120 basis points relative to last year, driven predominantly by deleverage on fixed costs and ongoing investment in new store openings, optimizations and our distribution center network. We expect markdowns for the full year to improve modestly and tariffs to have a gross impact of 90 basis points, of which we expect to be able to offset almost all of it. Turning now to SG&A for the full year. While we intend to realize significant savings related to the enterprise enablement pillar of our action plan, we expect deleverage of approximately 130 basis points versus 2025 as we continue to strategically invest in our business to support future growth. These investments include market expansion, improving the guest experience by enhancing our omni capabilities and growing brand awareness. We are absorbing additional costs relative to last year as we layer back in certain expenses, including incentive comp, store labor hours, and we have onetime costs associated with the expected proxy contest this year. When looking at operating margins for the full year 2026, we expect it to decrease by approximately 250 basis points versus last year. For the full year 2026, we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 30%, an increase from the 2025 effective tax rate of 29.5%. For the fiscal year 2026, we expect diluted earnings per share in the range of $12.10 to $12.30 versus EPS of $13.26 in 2025. Our EPS guidance excludes the impact of any future share repurchases. When looking at inventory, we expect dollar growth to be in the mid- to high single-digit range through 2026 with units flat to down slightly. With leaner inventories and improved chase capabilities, we are in a better position to read and react to guest demand and fuel momentum in stronger performing styles. We continue to have $1.2 billion remaining on our share repurchase program, which we will continue to utilize. Share repurchases remain our preferred method of returning cash to shareholders, and our repurchase levels in 2026 will likely be similar to those in 2025. Finally, for the full year, we expect capital expenditures to be approximately $725 million to $745 million. The spend reflects investments to support business growth, including capital for new locations, relocations and renovations, DC and technology investments. Our range of $725 million to $745 million is approximately 6% of revenue. Shifting now to Q1, we expect revenue in the range of $2.4 billion to $2.43 billion, representing 1-year growth of 1% to 3%. We expect to open approximately 6 net new company-operated stores and complete 6 optimizations. By region, we expect North America to decline in the mid-single digits with the U.S. also in that range and Canada is tracking slightly lower. We expect China Mainland to increase 25% to 30% and Rest of World to increase in the mid-teens. When looking at North America, as I mentioned, we are seeing good response to our new product launches and activations and are experiencing better full-price selling, but expect the inflection in total revenue to actualize over the course of the year. We expect gross margin in Q1 to decrease by approximately 380 basis points relative to Q1 of 2025. This decrease will be driven predominantly by higher tariff costs, ongoing investments in store openings and optimizations and our distribution network. We expect increased tariffs to have a gross negative impact of approximately 290 basis points with offsets of approximately 110 basis points. We expect markdowns to be up approximately 30 basis points versus last year. While full-price selling has improved meaningfully relative to Q4, we expect markdowns to begin to decrease versus prior year beginning in the second half. In Q1, we expect our SG&A rate to deleverage by 330 basis points relative to Q1 2025. This increase will be driven in part by timing related to brand activations, including the BNP Paribas Open, the Milan Olympics and Studio Yet as we have more events planned in the first half of the year versus the second half. In addition, there are discrete costs related to our proxy contest and expenses that we reduced last year that are layering back into this year related to store labor hours and incentive compensation. And we will continue to invest strategically in our growth initiatives and IT infrastructure. When looking at operating margin for Q1, we expect it to be 710 basis points lower than 2025 for the reasons I just mentioned. Turning to EPS. We expect earnings per share in the first quarter to be in the range of $1.63 to $1.68 versus EPS of $2.60 a year ago. We expect our effective tax rate in Q1 to be approximately 31.5%. I want to close today by saying that since Andre and I have stepped into our interim Co-CEO roles, we focused on engaging with our leaders and employees about the opportunities in front of us as we have worked to refine and implement initiatives that are part of our action plan. First and foremost, we are restoring the full-price health of our brand, and we are already seeing improvement in Q1. Other actions include testing a new design playbook in stores, rolling out enhancements to our e-commerce sites and working with the product teams to ensure that our design and merchandising choices emphasize athletic and technical apparel with lifestyle playing an important but supporting role. There is a renewed energy and enthusiasm across the business, in particular, where employees are seeing the product that is being introduced to guests that is in our pipeline. In fact, we've seen an increase in employee purchases as we introduce new innovations and product, which is an optimistic indicator that we're on the right path. Andre and I are encouraged by the progress we're seeing across the business, and we're inspired by the passion and commitment of our leaders and teams across the world. All of this reinforces our confidence in what's ahead for us. We recognize that it will take some time to see the benefits of these actions, but we are confident that these are the right moves to powerfully drive our brand forward in the near, mid and long term. We will now take your questions.