Greg Gibb
Analyst · Bank of America Security
Thank you, YS. I'll now go through our second quarter results and provide more details on our operations. Please note that all numbers are in renminbi terms, and all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis unless otherwise stated. The second quarter was both a difficult and [indiscernible] time for the economy and our business. Difficult for our business in terms of needing to be very selective in new growth while facing increased credit costs resulting mostly from COVID. Steadying is that our early-stage risk indicators peaked in April and are now showing size of recovery while we continue to pursue ongoing improvements in our operations. Through this period we've remained committed to providing inclusive funding solutions to small business owners with 86.1% of new loans sales distributed to small business owners, up from 77.6% in the same period last year. However, our committed stance on prioritizing quality over volume for the last several quarters resulted in second quarter total income growth of 3.1% year-on-year. We have taken a firm stance on cost control, with total second quarter expenses, excluding credit and impairment losses and other financial costs and losses declining 11% year-on-year. Nonetheless, the increase in credit losses, where we directly bear risk through our guarantee company, led to a profit decrease of 37.9% in the second quarter versus a year ago. Our net profit in the first half decreased by 15.2% versus a year ago. While these results are clearly below the expectations we set for ourselves at the beginning of the year, we believe our strategy provides protection on the downside that will allow us to adjust quickly as the macro environment gradually recovers. Now let's take a closer look at several of the core drivers for our business model and operating performance. As YS just mentioned, first, we believe that the recent policy and regulatory announcements are positive for our business model medium-term. Supporting small businesses is only becoming more important in China's current economic priorities. On the regulatory front, there was increased recognition of the role that credit enhancement can play in helping funding availability for small business owners. In the second quarter, excluding our consumer finance subsidiary, credit insurance provided by our 7 insurance partners to customers covered 76% of new loans. The role of our guarantee company and its role in data transmission to our funding partners has recently been clarified. We have received feedback that we will not need to share data with funding partners through a third-party credit agency under the current bank guarantee model. In the second quarter, the average APR to loans facilitated portfolio-wide reached 21.4%, down from 21.8% in the previous quarter. We will continue to leverage our unique business model and take guidance from central policy initiatives to continue to enhance our market positioning. Second, our channel transformation continues to push ahead. New business sourced from Ping An channels in the second quarter dropped to 22% from 31% a year ago. Importantly, new customers sourced in the first half of this year are a better quality than those sourced in the second half of last year. In regions where we've been successful in hiring higher-quality direct sales, the growth in productivity improvements have also been stronger. When combining our channel adjustments with selective regional growth, differentiated by superior credit performance, we are managing to optimize the overall quality of our new business in otherwise difficult market conditions. Third, we are seeing improved funding costs across our partner network. In the second quarter, overall bank and institutional funding costs have decreased by about 10 basis points. This improvement is driven both by the benign interest rate environment and strong demand by funding partners. Demand amongst our funding partners reflects both their desire for our quality assets and their need to increase exposure to the small business owner segment. Our number of funding partners in the second quarter reached 78%, about a 10% increase over the first quarter. Fourth, our balance sheet remains robust. As of the end of the second quarter, our net assets stood at RMB 97 billion, was RMB 43 billion in cash on hand, and the leverage ratio for our guarantee company stood at roughly 2x, demonstrating our resilience in the face of risk fluctuations. We believe that our strong capital position will enable faster resumption of growth when the macro environment stabilizes. At this point in the cycle, our unit economics are holding up reasonably well. Despite the decrease in effective interest rate APR, we have observed relative resilience in terms of the take rate, reflecting ongoing improvements made in funding costs, credit insurance costs and early repayment impact over the last 12 months. In terms of net margins, sales and operating expenses in the second quarter have improved somewhat versus a year ago to offset partially the increased credit cost we bear through our guarantee company. Let me dive further into the change in credit costs, as this has had the largest impact on our overall profitability. Total credit costs in the second quarter were RMB 3.5 billion, an increase of 152% versus a year ago. The increase was mainly due to increased risk sharing through the guarantee company and the deterioration of underlying volume driven largely by the COVID resurgence. As a reference, excluding the consumer finance subsidiary, the self-guaranteed portion of new loan sales increased from 16% in the second quarter of 2021 to 22% in the second quarter of 2022. If we further look into the early risk indicators, in December 2021, the C-M3 flow rate was 0.53%. In April, following the COVIF resurgence in Shanghai and other regions, the portfolio's C-M3 flow rate peaked at 0.83%. In June 2022, the C-M3 indicator stood at 0.61%. In the 2020 COVID wave, the C-M3 flow rate peaked at 0.98% and then return to pre-COVID levels within a 3-month period. Given the weaker macroeconomic environment today versus 2020, we anticipate that the return to normalized C-M3 flow-through rates will require a more extended period. This reality combined with the uncertainty of potential for further COVID outbreaks is the foundation for maintaining a prudent stance. In the second half of this year, we do expect our lending-facilitated unit economics take rate to be negatively impacted by increased credit insurance costs on new business as our credit insurance partners price up in response to COVID's resurgence in the first half. We are reviewing possible pricing adjustments to reflect the change in credit insurance costs. However, we do not expect absolute credit costs to increase substantially in the second half as we believe the worst is already behind us based on the early risk indicators. But a return to our historical unit economic levels, both top and bottom line will certainly have to wait until 2023 with a host improvement in the overall macroeconomic conditions. We believe we are planting the right seeds for the medium term, and are taking a prudent approach, but continue to build on strong underlying fundamentals to be able to reengage in net new business growth when the timing is right. It is with this in mind that we turn to our guidance for the second half. For the full year 2022, we expect our new loans facilitated to be in the range of RMB 563 billion to RMB 590 billion, and our client assets and wealth management to be in the range of RMB 390 billion to RMB 430 billion. We expect our total annual income to be in the range of RMB 60.3 billion to RMB 61.7 billion, and our net profit to be in the range of RMB 13 billion to RMB 13.4 billion for the full year 2022. This suggests flat to slightly negative revenue growth for the full year and a decline in annual profits up to 22%. If noncash foreign exchange losses are excluded from the calculation of net profit, the projected decline in annual profits will be approximately 17%. These forecasts reflect our current and preliminary views on the market and operational conditions, which are subject to change. Surprises to the upside derived from possibly more aggressive economic policy support are more likely to be visible in 2023. Finally, we are fully aware of potential delisting risks in the U.S. and are ready to initiate a Hong Kong listing plan as soon as permissible and subject to relevant regulatory requirements. As YS mentioned earlier, starting from this year, we will be distributing our dividends twice a year to deliver greater value to our shareholders. Our Board has approved a dividend distribution of USD 0.17 per ADS for the first half of 2022. I will now turn it over to David for more details on our financial performance.