Curtis M. Stevens
Analyst · Mark Wilde with Deutsche Bank
Yes, I could talk about that. And I'll talk about it, I assume you want to focus on OSB, so I'll focus on that. Right now, today, there's roughly 19.5 billion to 20 billion square feet of capacity that's running in North America. It's not running at that rate, but it's running. So today, I think last year, the demand was 15.5 billion to 16 billion square feet. So there's another 3 billion that we could add. And think about housing starts, every 100,000 housing starts is 1 billion square feet. So if you increase your housing starts with 300,000 over the 580,000 that we had last year, that says when you get close to 900,000 you're going to be out of OSB capacity. So as a producer from our standpoint, we would look at that and see if see sustainable housing starts at 900,000 or north. We have to think about adding that capacity. From a timing standpoint, obviously, the mills that have been shut down the longest, it's going to be the longest to come back up. But it's probably, from the time you make the decision, it's a 9 to 12 months ramp-up and that includes getting your logs in the deck and hiring your people, training your staff. Now we have a decided advantage because we have multiple facilities and we see those operations with current employees. But you heard me talking about our plan to be prepared for recovery. We will have detailed plans in place that will make that as short as possible, so that we can get the most market intelligence before we make those decisions. From a cost standpoint, it's about cost, and again, it depends on how long the mills are down-- but it's probably a $5 million to $10 million number if you bring up one of these big operations. And that's things like the forklift that you took out and relocated to another mill, you got to replace that. Those spare parts that you took out of the storeroom, you've got to replace that, then you're working capital with resins and wood. Well, that's the numbers we think about.