Matt Audette
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed
Thank you Dan and I'm glad to speak with everyone on today's call. Q1 was a good start to the year. Equity markets and interest rates were up and our business and financial performance continued to strengthen. We grew assets organically increased gross profit, remained disciplined on expenses and drove operating leverage. Along with our solid business fundamentals, we refinanced our entire debt structure and we restarted share repurchase. This translated into $0.52 of earnings per share in Q1. And these results include a loss on early retirement of debt related to our refinancing. Excluding that charge, EPS was $0.66 up 18% year-over-year. We were pleased to start the year with these business and financial results. Let's now go into our Q1 results in greater depth. Starting with brokerage and advisory assets. We finished the quarter at $530 billion, up $21 million or 4% sequentially driven by a combination of market and organic growth. Net new assets were $2.6 billion or 2% annualized growth rate up slightly from $2.5 billion in Q4 and net new advisory assets were $6 billion or an 11% annualized growth rate up from $4.8 billion in Q4. These organic inflows help demonstrate that our advisors are successfully growing their practices and that LPL is winning in the marketplace for new advisors. As a reminder, last quarter we noted that we expected some large departure related to institutional clients and clients separations. In total, we expected about $6 billion in mostly brokerage assets and 210 advisors to leave over the first half of 2017. During Q1 we saw $3.9 billion in assets leave related to those departures. This included $1.1 billion of advisory assets and $2.8 billion of brokerage assets along with 118 advisors. Excluding those departures net new assets were $6.5 billion with advisory a net inflow of $7.1 billion and brokerage in that outflow of $0.6 billion. Also excluding the departures advisor count increased by 95 and production retention was 98%. We also continued to focus on enhancing the transparency and clarity of our results. Last quarter we provided historical range for net brokerage to advisory conversions. To improve transparency on this metric, we're adding the actual data by quarter to our disclosures. And in Q1, we had $2.3 billion of conversions. This is consistent with secular industry trends with assets moving from brokerage to advisory. When higher level of services appropriate for investors. We also added a historical file on our investor website that provides this metric going back to the beginning of 2015. I also want to provide a brief update on our monthly metrics. We began reporting monthly metrics at the start of last year to increase transparency into our ongoing progress. We first disclosed some of our most important metrics assets and cash sweep balances. We believe, now is the time to expand this report include net new assets. So we will begin reporting monthly data for brokerage and advisory net new assets and brokerage to advisory conversions starting with our April metrics release in mid-May. In addition to new metric disclosures, we are working to make our key trends clear as well. Last quarter, we introduced key metrics presentation which we have now updated for our Q1 results and posted to our investor website. Today, we also posted and updated investor presentation which highlights our strategic priorities and areas of focus. We hope you find these helpful and better understanding our business. Let's now turn back to Q1. Our gross profit was $376 million up 8% sequentially. This is primarily driven by higher cash sweep and transaction in fees revenues along with lower production expense. Looking at commissions they were $421 million down $2 million sequentially. This is primarily from lower variable annuity sales commissions driven by a change in our VA pricing. As a reminder last fall, we announced that we would eliminate the 7% upfront commission structure on January 1, 2017 and that change was the primary driver of our lower VA sales commissions in Q1. The remaining VA options have lower upfront commissions as well as trailing commissions. So we expect this change will continue to ship sales two trails overtime. As advisory fees they were $330 million up $4 million or 1% from Q4. Advisory fees are mostly billed off prior quarter balances. So Q4 market growth and recruiting benefited these revenues. The results also reflect a $3 million impact from the previously announced pricing reductions are essentially managed platforms. And the lower pricing help generate the improved assets inflows Dan discussed. Turning to payout rate, it was 85.9% in Q1 down from 86.4% in Q4 primarily driven by seasonally lower advisor production bonuses. Moving onto asset base fees, which includes sponsor and cash sweep revenues. Sponsor revenues were $98 million up $2 million from Q4. This increase is due to higher market levels which drove average billable assets up. As for cash sweep revenues they were $60 million up $11 million from Q4. This growth was primarily driven by higher yields as a result of the December and March rate hikes. As we look forward our cash sweep revenues continue to have good leverage to rising short-term interest rates. At high level, we estimate approximately $40 million of annual gross profit benefit for each of the next few rate hikes. This is based on a $30 billion cash sweep balances and assumes we retain roughly half of the benefit of 25 basis point rate hike. We view this estimate as conservative given that market deposit rates have not moved much through the last three rate hikes. And as a reminder, our max yield on Money Market funds is around 80 basis points. So the upside will be slightly lower as we reach higher rate. Given that we just had rate hike in March. I want to share a little color on our ICA yield outlook for Q2. As a reminder, our ICA portfolio is placed with about 30 banks with a range of different structures. While Fed funds is the primary index, we also have contracts index to one-month LIBOR and three-month LIBOR along with a small amount of fixed balances. Yields on some of these deposits moved higher ahead of the March rate hike benefit in Q1. We also actively managed the placement [indiscernible] deposits among our partners banks which can impact the yield in any given quarter. Given all this, we anticipate ICA yields in Q2 to be roughly 100 basis points assuming no changes to the portfolio mix, client deposit rates and Fed funds rates. Now turning back to Q1 and to transaction in fee revenues. They were $108 million up $5 million or 5% sequentially. This is due to more transactions seasonally higher IRA fees and $2 million in non-recurring termination fees related to the institutional departures I noted earlier. Another $1 million of termination fees were included in other revenue this quarter. Let's now move onto expenses starting with core G&A. In Q1, core G&A expense was $177 million down $4 million from Q4. This was driven by seasonally lower cost including professional fees and customer statements. Partially offset by higher payroll taxes and 401(k) expense that are typical in Q1. For the year, our core G&A outlook remained $710 million to $725 million and we feel good about our progress through the first quarter. We plan to stay disciplined on expenses and focused on driving operating leverage. Moving onto Q1 promotional expenses, they were $37 million up $1 million sequentially. Our two large advisors conferences this quarter increased expense by $9 million as expected, but we also had lower cost on our smaller conferences. So the next conference expense increase was $7 million. This increase was mostly offset by seasonally lower marketing expense and lower transition assistance. Looking ahead at promotional expenses, we will not have a major conference in Q2, but we also expect seasonally higher marketing spend and an increase in smaller conferences. So we expect Q2 expense to be roughly similar to Q1. Just remember the transition assistance which is based on recruiting success and is somewhat more difficult to predict, could move the total up or down. Moving to regulatory related expenses for Q1. Our total was $5 million down $1 million sequentially. Looking forward regulatory expense remains difficult to predict especially on a quarterly basis, but we continue to expect our 2017 full year results to be closer to our 2016 total of $17 million, than our 2015 total of $34 million. Turning to taxes, our tax rate for Q1 was 36%. This was below our normal rate due to change in accounting standards for share based compensation. We had a large number of options exercised this quarter and our tax rate benefited under the new standard, but we still expect our normal tax rate to be in the high 30% range going forward. Next, let's turn to capital management. We remain focused on balance sheet strength and allocating capital to drive growth in shareholder returns. To further strengthen our balance sheet, we refinance our entire debt structure in March and we achieved attractive terms given the strength of the market in our financial performance. To summarize some of the benefits, we extended our maturities, diversified our funding sources to include fixed rate senior notes and upsize our undrawn revolver. And in this process, we lower the spread above LIBOR on our term loan by 150 basis points from our last refinancing and we no longer have financial maintenance covenants on our term loans. These improvements position us well to fund future growth and give us more flexibility to take advantage of market opportunities. Now turning to our leverage ratio, we finished the quarter at 3.3 times down from 3.4 times in the prior quarter. As a reminder after our refinancing this metric only applies for revolving credit line which is undrawn. The 3.3 times ratio was within our target range of 3.25 to 3.5 times, but we'd emphasize that we're comfortable operating above or below our target range depending on the returns we see in the market. Let's now turn to capital allocation starting with CapEx. In Q1, we had $31 million of CapEx primarily from technology spend. We see good returns from these technology investments in driving growth and efficiency both for our advisors and for us. We anticipate Q1 will be one of our higher quarters for CapEx this year and we continue to expect full year CapEx will be down slightly from our 2016 total of $128 million. Now for returning capital to shareholders. We were out of the market for share repurchases for over a year, while we focused on balance sheet strength and assess the impact of DOL role. Given the work we have completed on both fronts, we feel more comfortable now deploying excess capital. So following our refinancing, we started our share repurchase program. We bought 567,000 shares for $22 million. We also returned $23 million in the form of regular dividends in Q1. Before closing I want to update you on our Investor and Analyst Day. We heard a lot of positive feedback on last year's event, which was our first in three years. Given that, we decided to make this an annual event and scheduled our 2017 Investor and Analyst Day for November 8 in New York, we'll share more details as we get closer to the event. In closing, we're pleased to have started the year with strong business and financial results. We remain focused on growing assets and gross profit. Staying disciplined on expenses to great operating leverage and deploying capital to drive growth in shareholder returns. With that operator, please open the call for questions.