Brian Mueller
Analyst · Jeff Meuler with Baird. Your line is open
Good afternoon, and welcome to Grand Canyon Education's third quarter conference call. GCE is gaining real momentum as an educational services provider. We are building three platforms that will provide significant growth over the next 10 years. The pandemic has been a serious challenge for universities throughout the country and many are having financial problems. Recent college graduates who are new to the job market are also having a difficult time. Many have degrees that aren't serving them well in the current economy. It has been GCE's goal to create educational models that address the real issues within higher education. The first six I have talked about before: one, the out of control rising cost of university education; two, the increasing student debt levels that will seriously hinder graduates as they begin their adult lives; three, as tuition levels go up, diversity on college campuses go down; four, bachelor's degree should not take four to six years to complete; five, programs and delivery models lack the creativity necessary to address critical shortages in some industries; six, there are inadequate counseling and support services, especially for first generation students or those studying at a distance. In a recent article written by history Professor Steven Mintz at the University of Texas, Austin, entitled, Higher Ed's Dirty Little Secrets, he made the following observations. Three-fifths of college graduates would change their majors if they were starting over, 30% for better job opportunities and 20% to pursue their passions. Next, prior to the epidemic -- prior to the pandemic, 43% of college graduates were underemployed in their first job, two-thirds remained in jobs that don't require college degrees five years later and last, most professors have no formal training in teaching, learning or course design. Grand Canyon Education is a large organization, over 4,000 professional staff. It's in a very strong financial position and can invest in educational infrastructure to help institutions address some significant opportunities in the employment marketplace. One of our partner institutions now derive 13% of their total revenues from GCE Orbis healthcare programs, and they want to do more. The combination of institutions looking for additional revenue streams, and our ability to help them launch programs locally that prepare students for in-demand occupations, is creating rapid partnership growth and a very bright future for GCE. Let me explain how GCE is in a great position to support the three main pillars or platforms of our business. The first pillar, Grand Canyon University Online has 90,418 students. As of September 30, 2020, and in the quarter just completed, new students grew on a comparable start basis in the mid-single digits, while total students grew 7.5% year-over-year. The total number of GCU Online students continues to exceed our expectations driven by very strong start growth in the second quarter and higher-than-expected retention rates during the second and third quarters of 2020. Year-over-year, new student growth in the third quarter was down sequentially from the second quarter, as we expected and discussed on last quarter's call due to a much higher year-over-year comp and the fact that we had one less bachelor's degree start date in the third quarter of 2020 than in the third quarter of 2019. We continue to see strong interest in GCU online programs and the percentage of students that are attending at the graduate level continues to go up which is why retention rates are so high. GCE continues to work with GCU to ensure that student growth takes place at levels and in programs that will produce high-quality outcomes. This is the pillar of our business that is the most competitive. I have spoken previously about our strength in new program development, understanding where the economy is going, where the jobs are going to be and creating programs that help students get those jobs is a differentiating factor for us. A second differentiating factor is offering programs that lead to licensure. Programs in education, counseling, healthcare, etcetera, that lead to licensure, tend to have more clearly defined career paths and higher retention and graduation rates. Those programs are far more difficult to offer because it's difficult to manage at scale and at a distance the many details and requirements that are often state-specific. GCE has invested heavily in personnel, technology and automation that allows GCU to offer those programs and to ensure that students meet all state-specific requirements of GCU's 90,500 students -- online students, over approximately 40,000 are in those programs. The second pillar or platform to our business, is the GCU traditional campus. As many of you know, GCU shifted its start date for the fall semester for its students from August 24 to September 8. And they shifted the move-in date for residential students -- move-in date for residential students to September 21, 2020. Approximately 4,900 of GCU's traditional campus students elected to attend the fall semester entirely in the online modality which was higher than expected at the time of our last conference call resulting in approximately 11,500 residential students compared to bed capacity of approximately 14,500. Although this resulted in less room and board revenue in the fall semester, the number of students electing to take all of their classes online had the effect of increasing our capacity, allowing the university to exceed its enrollment expectation by roughly 600 students to a total of 22,363. This is in stark contrast to what many universities in the country are experiencing. Ground enrollments in the spring 2021 semester looks strong, and at this time, we have a large number of traditional students that stayed home during the fall semester telling us they plan to return to campus in the spring. We expect 750 new enrollments and approximately 2,600 that stayed home in the fall to return. That would bring the spring enrollment to 20,250 and residential students to 13,000. This would represent approximately 10% growth in ground traditional student's year-over-year and approximately 9% growth in residential student's year-over-year. GCU's traditional campus is in a very strong position and is becoming a bigger part of the strategy every day. GCU's goal is now to have 40,000 students on its traditional campus in West Phoenix, and they are once again exploring developing a second campus in the East Valley. The pandemic has made it abundantly clear that 18-year-old students desire to have a campus experience as much now as they ever have. It just needs to be affordable. The combination of GCU and GCE in building out the traditional campus has many strategic advantages: one, Phoenix is a destination city and Arizona is a destination state. Two, GCU has invested $1.5 billion in educational infrastructure and the campus is currently ranked 19th in the country. GCU hasn't raised tuition in 12 years, and their students take out less debt than the average state university student. Fourth, GCU now has nine colleges that have over 270 academic programs, emphasis in certificates. Five, GCU is adding more than 20 new programs per year targeted at growing occupational areas. Sixth, the university will invest $500 million additional dollars in the next four years with the planned growing out its campus to accommodate 40,000 students. GCE has almost 200 people involved in the recruiting process. GCE has a state-of-the-art marketing and advertising agency to develop efficient and productive campaigns. I want to correct that. Number seven, GCE has almost 200 people involved in the recruiting process. GCE has a state-of-the-art marketing and advertising agency to develop efficient and productive campaigns. Nine, GCE has invested heavily in building out virtual tours of campus and live lab classroom demos to expose current high school students to GCU during the pandemic when travel is limited. GCU's Christian free market positioning makes it attractive to a large national audience with very few affordable and scalable options. The third pillar or platform of the business is Grand Canyon Education/Orbis. Going forward, we are combining how we talk about what we used to refer to as the third and fourth pillars in order to simplify and better explain our strategy. Our goal is to continue the rapid expansion of partners. Some of which will have both healthcare programs and non-healthcare programs. GCE bought Orbis 20 months ago. Since that time, we have expanded to 25 partners and 30 locations. The goal is to have over 40 locations by the end of 2022, 50 locations by the end of 2023 and eventually to grow to 80 locations. This is a huge national platform in which to enroll students. GCE now has -- not only has the largest partner in this space, it is also rapidly adding partners. This is happening because, first, many quality universities are experiencing financial stress and looking for options to increase their revenues. Second, there are important healthcare careers that are experiencing serious shortages. Third, universities don't have the resources to scale many of these programs. Fourth, GCE has the capital and the know-how to scale these programs and create opportunities for thousands of underemployed, young adults, while helping universities create more important additional revenue streams. Most locations start with the ABSN program, but most have the ability and desire to scale up through as many as 10 additional programs. Sites will eventually accommodate between 250 and 1,000 students in multiple programs. Programs will cost between $30,000 and $60,000, take between 12 and 24 months and lead to jobs paying between $50,000 to $100,000. 90% of the students in these programs will have already completed a bachelor's degree but consider themselves underemployed. GCU will fill many of the sites in the West and along with Valparaiso, become the model with how to expand into additional healthcare and non-healthcare academic areas. Grand Canyon education has three large, well-financed, highly professional platforms to grow with in the next five years. Each platform is addressing real needs in the market and is producing high-quality outcomes for our partners and the economies. I have never been more excited about the future of GCE. With that, I would like to turn it over to Dan Bachus, our CFO, to give a little more color on our 2020 second quarter, talk about changes in the income statement, balance sheet and other items, as well as to provide 2020 guidance.