Shaun McAlmont
Analyst · Barclays Capital
Thank you, Jeff. Good morning, and welcome everyone. Joining me today here is Cesar Ribeiro, our Chief Financial Officer. Let me begin this morning by reading the Safe Harbor statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our statements in this presentation concerning Lincoln Educational Services Corporation's future prospects are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that future results will be achieved and actual results may differ materially from forecasts, estimates and summary information contained in this earnings release. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are included, but not limited to, those listed in Lincoln's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2011, and other periodic reports filed with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement.
This morning, I'll provide an overview of our company's operations, and Cesar will then review our third quarter financial results and provide our outlook for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2011, and we'll then take your questions. Just as a quick overview of our company, that we're one of the largest vocational training institutions in the country and considered a leading provider of career-oriented postsecondary education. We offer recent high school graduates and working adults, degree and diploma programs in 5 areas of study and each one of those areas is specifically designed to appeal to and meet the educational objectives of our students, while also satisfying the criteria established by industry and employers.
Now in more normal operating times, our program diversification limits dependence on any one industry for enrollment growth or placement, and it also broadens our opportunities for introducing new programs. We're in the process of rationalizing these areas of study to determine the best course for Lincoln's future. We have ceased enrollment in certain programs in favor of nursing, automotive, the skilled trades and some future manufacturing disciplines. As we assess our verticals, we will ensure the programs offered are sustainable. It might mean getting smaller before we grow again; however, we're confident Lincoln will be the leading national brand in skilled training.
As of September 30, 2012, we enrolled 19,028 students in diploma programs at our 46 campuses and we enrolled an additional 536 students in short certificate programs at some of these campuses, but as well as our 5 training sites across 17 states. Our campuses primarily attract students from their local communities and surrounding areas, although our 5 destination campuses attract students from across the United States and in some cases, from abroad.
We experienced significant declines in new student starts over the past 2 years as we implemented change after change to comply with new federal rules. We also managed the existing federal 90/10 and cohort default rates rules and we managed the decline of ATB students from our population and we've closed underperforming campuses. We have also laid off employees and worked in a cloud of uncertainty as a court of public opinion also weighed in based on political scrutiny focused on our industry.
Although we still feel some of the fiscal pressures of last year's declines, we're becoming a more focused and disciplined company. We know there are most likely additional external changes to come over time and so we're positioning for future success. Moreover, we know that as we work with a smaller population, we increase the understanding of the new rules and we continue to see improvements in completion, placement and default rates, that Lincoln will emerge as a national leader in skilled training.
Overall, we feel that our approach, which we have honed since 1946, has been sharpened based on a new reality for our industry. Our collective vocational expertise, the introduction of short cash-based programs and improving student performance metrics gives us confidence that we are on track toward our targets.
As we stated previously, we introduced a pre-orientation program in 2010, which was designed to identify high-risk students. We added the early student engagement mentoring program in 2011, which in addition to the orientation program, is focused on improving completion rates through student support and early retention efforts. Our retention performance has improved for 5 consecutive quarters, giving us confidence that our completion rates will see the same improvement. We're focused on our student placement in terms of quality and quantity of working graduates.
Ultimately, default rates will improve as student completion rates improve. We've branded the collection of these student services the Lincoln edge program, that will serve as a competitive advantage for the company long term.
We ultimately expect to emerge from these challenging times an even stronger company, well positioned to address the skills gap in this country. Moreover, let me say again that we believe demand will always exist for Lincoln's programs in areas like nursing, paramedics, welding, automotive and other skilled trades. Let me now take a moment to address a few of the key areas related to our operations and I'll begin with cohort default rates, 90/10 and the recently closed campuses.
In regards to our cohort default rates, on September 24, 2012, the Department of Education released final 3-year cohort default rates for federal fiscal year 2009. Our rates for the 2009 fiscal year under the new methodology ranged from 16.9% to 49.2%. For the 2009 federal fiscal year, 10 of our institutions had 3-year cohort default rates of at least 30%. One of these institutions had a rate above 40%. This institution has subsequently been merged with one of our other institutions. This new merged institution has a cohort default rate below the 30% threshold.
While we strive to improve the cohort default rates for each of our institutions, the current economic climate, combined with the demographics of our students that we traditionally serve, makes this objective even more challenging. As a result, we have increased our default management personnel to help enhance the financial literacy of our students and graduates, with the goal of helping students stay current in their loan payments. We've also engaged third party consultants to assist those institutions who have historically had the highest cohort default rates.
In regards to the 90/10 rule. The Higher Education Act of 1965 as amended, or the HEA enacted in 2008, states that a proprietary institution will be ineligible to participate in Title IV programs if for any 2 consecutive fiscal years, it derives more than 90% of its cash basis revenue from Title IV programs. This is commonly known as the 90/10 rule. We've calculated that for our fiscal 2011, our institutions' 90/10 rule percentages ranged from 76.5% to 89.2%. To reinforce the 90/10 improvement component of our strategy, we acquired Florida Medical Training Institute in April. Although small, it will positively impact our 90/10 ratio as tuition revenue from students in these short training programs does not rely on federal funding.
In regards to our recent campus closings. As we previously announced on July 31, 2012, we ceased operations at 7 of our campuses. The adjustments made to our business model to better align with the Department of Education's increased emphasis on student outcomes and our efforts to comply with the 90/10 rule and cohort default rates greatly impacted the population at these campuses. In addition, the current economic environment and regulatory changes under the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2012, which eliminated the opportunity to enroll Ability to Benefit students, have made these campuses no longer viable. For 2012, these campuses were expected to contribute approximately $14.5 million in revenue and approximately 570 new student starts to the second half of 2012.
Now in regards to our new student admissions. Student starts decreased 16.7% for the third quarter of 2012, as compared to the third quarter of 2011. Student starts in the third quarter were impacted by the 7 campuses being closed and Ability to Benefit students who were scheduled to start in the third quarter but started in the second quarter of 2012. In last quarter's call, I mentioned that we expected our third quarter decline because of these reasons. In addition, our high school new student starts were flat against prior year and considering the decline in Q3, we anticipate the full year new student starts decline to be in the area of 6%. And we see this as a stabilizing against the significant declines of last year and a major positive step toward our long-term rebuilding process.
Our corporate and campus admissions teams have done an effective job in adjusting to recruitment in this new environment in a very compliant fashion. We've trained all of our representatives and managers and we have thoroughly on boarded new admissions personnel. We consistently test product and process knowledge, and we continue to aggressively mystery shop our teams.
As we look forward, our fourth quarter will see a slight decline against prior year performance, primarily attributable to the lack of ATB starts and continuing affordability issues. This said, we're working to offset this impact through continued improvement in year-over-year conversions and the ramping up of our GED program.
Now in regards to market demand. Lincoln directly addresses the skills gap in this country. We're not only different than our traditional counterparts but also unique within our sector, which we feel has fully gravitated away from its vocational roots. So to sustain long-term growth in this new environment, we will differentiate our offerings by focusing on this important sector within education by promoting our "Careers that Build America" campaign and adding additional Skilled Trades and training programs over time. Furthermore, success in this arena will require a keen ability to succeed with more challenged students who are attracted to these fields. In short, we feel that long-term demand characteristics for this training will continue to be strong. Moreover, we assert that because of this country's reliance on skilled labor, the competitive market dynamics for its vocational and skilled training will shift in our favor as we continue to add short-term training programs in different skilled fields.
We're also very excited to attract new demographics through a natural entry to industry partnerships and related training in the growing manufacturing area. Year-to-date, our front-end demand characteristics in terms of new student inquiries adjusted correspondingly to our spending levels. We spent approximately 20% less and generated 27% fewer inquiries against prior year. In terms of enrollments, however, we improved our conversion of these inquiries to achieve 5.8% fewer starts for the 9-month period. Year-to-date, 25% of our advertising dollars were spent on TV, which generated about 11% of our inquiries for the quarter, while 55% of our spend was in web-based channels, which generated 75% of our new starts for the quarter.
Looking forward and based on what we're currently experiencing, we believe market interest remains intact to achieve our goals. However, I should note that there are still affordability issues pushing start decisions out further than normal for some students and their families.
Now in regards to student persistence, we've seen an improvement in overall student persistence in the third quarter and expect the positive trend to continue into Q4. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter we have seen improvements in retention as measured by our net interrupt rate. For Q3, our net interrupt rate was 8.5% versus 8.8% prior year, a 30 basis point improvement, excluding the closed schools. This continued improvement is driven by our early student engagement efforts, which are functioning well at all of our campuses in which we hope will start influencing graduation rate in 2013. This third quarter performance follows a 2011 full year improvement of 230 basis points and first half 2012 improvement of 300 basis points, all accomplished against a retention headwind caused by program structure and program length changes related to 90/10 management and other affordability issues faced by in-school students.
Needless to say, we're very pleased with this performance and we continue working on executing our pre-orientation and early student engagement programs to ultimately benefit completion, placement and repayment rate outcomes for our students and the company. Our faculty has also done a great job in not only working with the students to meet industry certification benchmarks, but also in helping with orientations, mentoring and financial literacy.
Regarding job placement, we've strengthened our placement leadership and services in 2011 and as we continue to work against high unemployment numbers across the country. We also added training and performance tracking systems to assist graduates in finding employment. Furthermore, we have added social networking elements to our training and services. Our job placement process is very straightforward in relation to the areas we train. However, in cases we identify any weakness in our process, we thoroughly investigate and make appropriate and immediate changes. Our final placement rates for 2011 was 72.2%, as compared to 71% in 2010. This improvement, although modest, gives us confidence in our ability to train students for vocational careers throughout the current economy.
In summary, we believe that operational challenges we faced over the last 2 years are behind us, and we're beginning to see the benefits of our initiatives. We continue to experience improvement in student starts compared to the declines in 2011 and remain focused on our strategy of improving student outcomes, strong regulatory compliance and increasing the growth of new students. We continue to position Lincoln to become the nation's leading provider of skilled training. This industry has been faced with unprecedented challenges, yet our teams at Lincoln have managed each element of change in compliant and effective ways to the point that we have adapted early, and we now focus on our year-over-year improvement in a new operating model. We're still working with an academically challenged population; however, we are seeing successes every day.
Now I'll turn the call over to Cesar for the financial review, including our outlook for the fourth quarter and year. Cesar?