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Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (LEG)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 2, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Leggett & Platt Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Dave DeSonier, Senior Vice President of Strategy and Investor Relations for Leggett & Platt. Please go ahead.

Dave DeSonier

Analyst

Good morning and thank you for taking part in Leggett & Platt's fourth quarter conference call. I'm Dave DeSonier, and with me today are the following; Karl Glassman, who is President and CEO; Matt Flanigan, our Executive VP and CFO; and Susan McCoy, our Vice President of Investor Relations. The agenda for the call this morning is as follows: Karl will start with a summary of the major statements we made in yesterday's press release and provide segment highlights; Matt will discuss financial details and address our outlook for 2016, and finally, the group will answer any questions that you have. Perry Davis, who is Senior Vice President of the Company and President of the Residential Furnishing segment is also joining us this morning to participate in Q&A. This conference is being recorded for Leggett & Platt and is copyrighted material. This call may not be transcribed, recorded or broadcast without our express permission. A replay is available from the IR portion of Leggett's website. We posted to the IR portion of the website a set of PowerPoint slides that contain summary financial information along with segment details. Those slides supplement the information we discuss on this call, including non-GAAP reconciliations. I need to remind you that remarks today concerning future expectations, events, objectives, strategies, trends or results constitute forward-looking statements. Actual results or events may differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise these statements. For a summary of these risk factors and additional information, please refer to yesterday's press release and the section in our 10-K entitled forward-looking statements. I'll now turn the call over to Karl Glassman.

Karl Glassman

Analyst

Good morning and thank you for participating in our fourth quarter call. As we reported yesterday, we are extremely pleased with our 2015 results and expect continued strong performance in 2016. For the full year 2015, we achieved record sales from continuing operations, record EBIT and record earnings per share. Sales grew 4% for the year to 3.92 billion, higher unit volume of 6% and acquisitions 3% added 9% to sales growth. These improvements were partially offset by raw material related price decreases and currency impact which combined to reduce sales by 5%. The full year sales benefited from ongoing content gains and new program awards in automotive, the continued shift in bedding to comfort core spring and strong growth in our adjustable beds. Full year adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations were $2.34 up 31% from $1.78 in the prior year. Earnings grew primarily from higher unit volume and pricing discipline. Adjusted EBIT grew 31% and adjusted EBIT margin increased 270 basis points to 12.9%. In the fourth quarter, sales from continuing operations were $945 million, down 1% from the prior year, higher unit volume 3% and acquisitions 1% added 4%, but were more than offset by raw material related price decreases and currency impact which combined to reduce sales by 5%. Earnings performance was stronger than expected during the fourth quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.64 compared to $0.41 in the same quarter last year for an increase of 56%. Adjusted earnings grew primarily from pricing discipline, higher unit volume and lower stock compensation expense. Additional decreases in steel cost late in the year led to a larger than expected LIFO benefit in the fourth quarter. While the LIFO impact is typically offset within the segments, as the higher cost inventory flows through earnings that offset…

Matt Flanigan

Analyst

Thanks, Karl, and good morning everyone. In 2015, we generated operating cash flow of $359 million after paying 82 million to settle foam litigation. Full year cash flow came in slightly below our prior forecast due to the timing of the litigation payments with a major part of those occurring just before year end. The substantial majority of these cases have now been settled and paid. We ended the year with adjusted working capital as a percentage of sales of 9.5%. In November, we declared a quarterly dividend of $0.32 per share, and yesterday’s closing price of $41.58, the current yield is 3.1%, which is one of the highest dividend yields among the 50 companies that comprise the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats. We repurchased 700,000 shares of our stock in the fourth quarter at an average price of $44.36 and issued 200,000 shares, largely for employee benefit plans and option exercises. For the full year, we repurchased 4.3 million shares at an average price of $45.72 and issued 2.2 million shares. Our financial base remains very strong, and this gives us considerable flexibility when making capital and investment decisions. We ended the year with net debt-to-net capital at 34.5% comfortably within our long standing targeted range of 30% to 40%, we also debt-to-EBITDA. At year end, our debt was 1.5 times our trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA. We assess our overall performance by comparing our total shareholder return to that of peer companies on a rolling three year basis. Our target is to achieve TSR in the top one-third of the S&P 500 over the long term, which we believe will require an average TSR of 12% to 15% per year. For the three year period that just ended on December 31, 2015, we met our goal of producing top…

Dave DeSonier

Analyst

That concludes our prepared remarks. We thank you for your attention and we will be glad to answer your question. [Operator Instructions]. Kevin we are ready to begin the Q&A.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] our first question toady is coming from Daniel Moore from CJS Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Daniel Moore

Analyst

Thank you for the color regarding the LIFO benefit, and maybe is it possible to quantify the unusual margin benefit that you did experience in Q4 and how much of that you might, if commodity costs stabilizes, might be a reversal in to Q1 and early 2016?

Susan McCoy

Analyst

Yeah, its’ a good question Dan. The way that I would encourage you to think about it is that in the fourth quarter we recognized $15 million more in LIFO benefit than we anticipated at the end of the third quarter. That was caused by the steel deflation that took place in November and December. Because of the timing of that deflation heading very late in the year and in fact in the back half of the quarter a meaningful part of that $15 million increase in LIFO was not offset during the quarter and in fact will carry over into the early part of 2016 with a lot of that being in the first quarter. As you know, commodity moves impact LIFO pretty quickly, and it takes a little bit more time to work through the segments. We have to have usually a quarter, maybe a little bit more than that for those higher cost materials to roll through and for us to get to a point where we can actually revalue our inventories and neither of those things fully happened in the fourth quarter so a part of it would have been offset but not all of it, and that will carry over into the first quarter.

Daniel Moore

Analyst

A quick follow-up, in terms of the revenue guide, the zero to 5%, any sense of how you expect that growth to play out over the year. Is H1 likely to be a little bit softer given the commodity cost inflation, just wanted to get a sense of how you see that layering in over the year.

Susan McCoy

Analyst

We will have some variation in the quarter because of the year-over-year deflation. I know we’ve already said this, but we expect our unit volume growth to be strong again in 2016. We’re looking at mid to high-single digit unit volume growth. We do expect deflation to offset part of that, and we now also have the impact from the divestiture. When you look at our current full year guidance out flat to 5% and compare that to the framework that we put out there in October, what’s changed is basically the divestiture impact and maybe a little bit more deflation. Otherwise we’re basically in line with what we thought at the end of October. So taking that through the quarters, I would encourage you first to decide where you want to be in that full year flat to 5% range, and then in the first quarter subtract 300 basis points from that full year growth rate, in the second quarter subtract the 100 basis points, and in the third and fourth quarters add 200 basis points each. So at the midpoint of the guidance range, which would be about 2% to 3% growth in the first quarter, we’d be looking at sales that were flat to down 1%, in the second quarter, we’d be looking at sales that would be up 1% to 2%, and in each of the third and fourth quarters we should be in that 4% to 5% up range. You didn’t specifically ask about margins, but I’ll go ahead and throw that in here too. Qualitatively in the first half of 2016, we should be ahead of ’15 EBIT margins in both the first and second quarter. Third and fourth quarters in ’15 obviously we had very strong margin performance in both of those quarters. We will likely be below those margin levels in the back half of the year, with a full year margin essentially flat which is what we already said. And I’ll just reiterate that LIFO overhang if you will or the FIFO impact in this segment will most significantly impact our first quarter with the bulk of that being in our residential segment with a little bit more in industrial.

Operator

Operator

And next question today is coming from Budd Bugatch from Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Budd Bugatch

Analyst

My question really reflects just basically adjustables, and I know the adjustables were up 7% in the quarter, may be Karl if you could go and give us a little bit of the color on the cadence during the quarter or what was going on with adjustables and maybe what the outlook is for that in 2016?

Karl Glassman

Analyst

The adjustable business had a wonderful year, we said we are up 51% in units. We expect significant growth in 2016. We believe the market’s growing in excess of 30%, so things are good. What happened in the fourth quarter, as you know we have a very large customer who did a wonderful job of giving color on their third quarter call forecasting fourth quarter saying that they were going through an ERP implementation? That implementation they said pulled some volume forward in the third quarter which we experienced and softened fourth quarter. The volume or our demand strengthened as the quarter went on. So as I said, we remained very, very bullish on the category.

Operator

Operator

Our next question today is coming from David MacGregor from Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question.

David MacGregor

Analyst

Congratulations on a good quarter, and again thanks for all the details and the colors, it’s very helpful. Karl wonder if I could just talk at a high level, some of the manufacturers have announced a shift in product life cycle in bedding to three years from two years and it appears to be good for them. But just trying to ascertain whether it’s good for a key supplier like yourself?

Karl Glassman

Analyst

Perry, do you want to --.

Perry Davis

Analyst

Yeah, this is Perry Davis. I can tell you that those life cycle [changes are dramatic] [ph] both for the manufacturers and for the retailers, and I believe that this will be received positively. The every two year refresh is almost a constant cycle of change for the manufacturers and with the amount of floor samples and sampling and product testing and everything that goes with that as well as changes retailers as far as [indiscernible] some advertising, I think it will be received positively and looked upon as an adequate time spend for any new product launch to be placed in to the market.

Karl Glassman

Analyst

Yeah David, the fact that there would be an expectation of more substantive innovation at each launch which is good for us, as you know that we really are the driver of industry innovation in the bedding industry. So I agree with Perry, I see this as a good thing.

David MacGregor

Analyst

And just as an add-on, if you could just go back to Budd’s question talk about the cadence within the quarter that would be helpful.

Matt Flanigan

Analyst

David, I could address that, unit shipments in the quarter, if you look by period, so in October shipments were off about 5%, in November up around 11, and about 3% up in December. And for the quarter it was up about 3%. Now if you go back and you look at the ISPA numbers for that period and we don’t have the December numbers yet, obviously, but in October ISPA reported a negative 2% and then a positive 5 in November.

Karl Glassman

Analyst

And David I want to take an opportunity to let all the listeners know that ISPA has made a decision that we believe is very wise and that’s the elimination of monthly reporting. There are some irregularities in monthly, the timing of holidays, the pre-shipped and pre-build to holidays. We only gave monthly quarter, then we started it sometime ago because ISPA had. We are going to discontinue that because we think that it just isn’t sensible for anyone to make investment decisions on what happens from a month-to-month basis. So we are happy to give you the color as Perry just did with the fourth quarter, but we just don’t think it’s prudent to do that in the future.

Operator

Operator

Our next question today is coming from Keith Hughes from SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Keith Hughes

Analyst

Question is on the furniture work it was down 2% in the quarter. Just a commentary on trends there, I know you did fairly well in the seating, but some negative offsets.

Perry Davis

Analyst

Keith this is Perry. There are negative offsets with some deflationary pressures. I did a quick check of 2016, obviously we’re early in the game here, but during the first three weeks of this year on a per day basis, our furniture mechanism shipments are slightly up, just under 2%, but it was slightly down in the fourth quarter on furniture hardware units of about 1% and then further offset by deflationary pressures.

Keith Hughes

Analyst

Are the manufacturers are they saying, it is kind of a flattish demand, I guess we average it out, is that what they are expecting for this year or --.

Perry Davis

Analyst

There’s some noise in the numbers. If you go back a year ago with the port strikes and the shutdowns of the port, there was actually a lot of business that we picked up incrementally last year because we have a domestic presence that would not necessarily repeat this year. So given the fact that our unit shipments are as strong as they are to start off the year that says something I think, given the year-on-year comps and what happened with all the port issue last year.

Keith Hughes

Analyst

Final question adjustable, I know you answered Budd’s questions earlier. But you’ve had several launches at the Las Vegas show. In this quarter were there the new customers playing a meaningful role in terms of the shipment.

Perry Davis

Analyst

In the fourth quarter Keith.

Keith Hughes

Analyst

Fourth quarter, yes.

Perry Davis

Analyst

There was continued -- I wouldn’t say some much new customer, there’s been some good retail placement, but the industry continues to grow. That we feel that we are the largest producer in the category and the quarter was good absent the ERP noise and we expect that to continue. So we believe that we are well positioned.

Operator

Operator

Our next question today is coming from John Baugh from Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

John Baugh

Analyst

I was curious of the office furniture segment. I saw the 5% I believe same location decline. Could you speak maybe more specifically to the trends in the quarter? What you are seeing may be in end markets there or a specific customer, their performance, and then maybe the outlook for ’16 in the segment. Thank you.

Karl Glassman

Analyst

The majority of our organic softness in the quarter was really outside the US, which is thus most impacted by the currency issues, and there were some mixed issues, a little bit of softness in some domestic finish furniture. But from an industry perspective this is forecasting 2016 growth in the 5% to 6% range. We feel that’s appropriate and we feel like we should grow at that rate from an organic perspective. Remember that we won’t comp the European acquisition until April. So first quarter should grow to little greater growth than that.

John Baugh

Analyst

And may be just a quick follow-up, any thoughts about how aggressive or non-aggressive you may be towards the acquisitions this coming year. You have even more free cash flow to deal with. Thank you.

Karl Glassman

Analyst

I’ve got to give a shout out to our M&A team. They had a fantastic year in 2015 and to close the European business that was - that acquisition was really strategic and then to conclude divestitures to get us completely out of the stores fixtures business which will declare victory on that one to sell part of CVP and then on Christmas Eve to get the steel tubing divestitures done. All the while they were looking at a number of acquisitions doing very deep dives and now in 2016 continuing to look at some additional divestiture work and look at acquisitions. But I will say, and we will be acquisitive, as a matter of fact I have every expectation that we’ll close a small aerospace acquisition later this month, but its small. Our current stated growth target is 4% to 5% or really two times expectation of GDP growth. When we look at our strategic planned forecast for the next three years, so ’16,’17 and ’18, we’re looking today at a greater than 7% CAGR, so three times our expectation of GDP. So we feel really good about where we are positioned from an organic perspective. So that allows us to be very systemic in our analysis of acquisition. So you’re right, we’ll throw up a lot of cash, how we apply that cash, we’ll go through the normal usage. We’ll continue to invest in organic growth. You see CapEx forecast for the first time a little bit above depreciation and amortization, that’s an investment that we see in automotive and continued growth in US and European Comfort Core capability. We don’t talk about Europe much; Europeans bring out a fantastic quarter in this year and is sold out. So, long winded answer, but we will continue to be acquisitive but we have the luxury of continuing to be disciplined.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question today is coming from Herb Hardt from Monness Crespi Hardt. Please proceed with your question.

Herb Hardt

Analyst

I have two questions actually, one is, Aerospace was down and is that sort of a timing issue on shipments or something, because it’s been a pretty good growth area for you?

Karl Glassman

Analyst

Herb the fourth quarter was a little bit of soft, showed a little bit of softness, and we believe that there was a little bit of inventory true-up at the end of the year. We’ve seen pretty significant strength of recovery in January. The aerospace industry is always a little bit choppy, but our people have just done a tremendous job of execution in Aerospace. That French business that we bought a year and a half or two years ago now has performed well, well above any of our expectations. So we continue to remain very, very bullish and expect from time to time there’ll be a little bit of softness.

Herb Hardt

Analyst

The other question regards residential and the consumer. If you look at results in the last four or five months, the high-end people like [Tiffany] have had problems, the toy industry, the apparel industry, it’s pretty mixed all over the place, and I’m just curious as to how you see this year playing out other that auto which you’ve already [slashed]?

Perry Davis

Analyst

Herb, this is Perry Davis. We went through a number of years as you’ll recall where there was a real bifurcation in the market and there was a lot of low end product being sold, also at the high end, but not much in the middle. That seems to be where our business suffered during those years. Right now and with the product introductions we recently saw at Las Vegas, we think there’s room for growth at both the mid and high end part of the market. We’re seeing average unit retail prices, introductions there, some real strong introductions and we believe that while the low end part of the business will remain, we think there’s more upside in the mid to upper end price points.

Karl Glassman

Analyst

Weighing on a little bit to Perry’s comment, the Las Vegas market that concluded last week in my opinion was the strongest showing that Leggett’s had at any bedding furniture market. The placement of product, Comfort Core primarily but the addition of Comfort Core around the perimeter of mattresses and in the comfort layer shows us that we will have significant bedding growth, content gains. The industry association is forecasting 4% unit growth. Our expectation is we’ll exceed that. So we remain very, very bullish on the domestic bedding industry and to be repetitive on the European betting industry where we saw 28% unit growth last year.

Operator

Operator

And next question today is coming from Allen Zwickler from First Manhattan.

Allen Zwickler

Analyst

Two questions that’s totally unrelated; one, in the auto side, to what extent or what percentage had to be there? Okay either to what extent or to what percentage would you say that your auto business is designed in to a particular vehicle versus ordering year-by-year depending on the style, if you understand where I’m going.

Karl Glassman

Analyst

Allen, all of our auto business other than a little bit of cable business is specifically designed in to programs that are awarded a long time in advance. Our automotive team did a great job last year of landing awards that will primarily start to ship the end of 2017 and be fully ramped 2018 and ’19. So we are designed in to programs that have very long tenures.

Matt Flanigan

Analyst

And Allen this is Matt. I’d just add that that’s why there’s such good competence in our ability to say we will grow 10 percentage points better than the market over the next several years because of that visibility on those programs.

Allen Zwickler

Analyst

Well that’s what I was getting at, because 10% in the auto business is a nose bleed. And secondly, and I didn’t look at the slides on the website, I apologize. But just if we were to look at operating profits versus operating profits from ’15 to ’16 and we get rid of what is a typical for Leggett with noise. What would you say your growth is expected to be based on the projection that you made?

Karl Glassman

Analyst

Our operating earnings growth would pretty much be synchronized with the adjusted EPS growth year-over-year. So, this past year as you all know, our EBITDA for example was about 600 million and it will be up, low to mid-single digits based upon all sorts of things that might occur obviously there in 2016 is a base line expectation.

Allen Zwickler

Analyst

Okay, so all else being equal, that’s what we should expect. I mean if one was to project out what your growth is, if you know what I’m saying, X what were a lot of items. There’s nothing in the [dial] that’s changed very much as usual is that correct?

Karl Glassman

Analyst

That is correct.

Allen Zwickler

Analyst

So you’re saying you’re going to grow may be a couple of percent year-over-year on the operating line before there’s any changes in the tax rate or interest expense or anything like that that we should be aware of.

Karl Glassman

Analyst

Nothing dramatic. Our expected tax rate this year as you know and they are on the slide, I know you’ll have a change to reference those.

Allen Zwickler

Analyst

Okay, I apologize then. I’ll look at it.

Karl Glassman

Analyst

29% is our expected tax rate this year, that’s a little bit higher than it has been at previous year. But we hope there is a bias to bring that down, we’ll see. But the big answer to your question is, no we don’t expect any significantly dramatic changes in some of those operating earnings aspects this year. But its’ [reversed].

Operator

Operator

Our next question today is coming from Daniel Moore from CJS Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Daniel Moore

Analyst

I know you touched on auto quite a bit, but just curious, you mentioned the 4% projection in global growth, is that consistent with what you’re seeing in the market place, kind of on the ground. Obviously you’re taking a ton of share, but how much confidence do you have in that projection based on what you’re hearing from customers.

Karl Glassman

Analyst

Dan at this point we feel pretty confident that that 4% is IHS data for major market growth, which is really significant growth appreciation the ‘14 to ’15. To break it down, North America at 4% and Greater China at almost 7%, we have confidence in that data. I know that there’s too early in the year to say that we see anything different, and again it’s important that there are content gains within the vehicle, but market share gains aren’t really that available to us and that we believe that we touch about 85% of the vehicles produced in the major markets in the world. So we have really good visibility.

Daniel Moore

Analyst

That’s very helpful. I misspoke on content versus share, but thanks for your color.

Operator

Operator

We’ve reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I’d like to turn floor back over to management for any further or closing comments.

Dave DeSonier

Analyst

Thank you for your participation. We do appreciate it, and we’ll talk to you again next quarter.