Kenneth Jacobs
Analyst · KBW
Sure. So, look, this downturn is very different from any we’ve ever experienced before. 2008/2009 was obviously a very significant event, but it was highly – but it was focused primarily, at least, initially on the financial sector. It radiated out to a couple of other sectors, the auto industry is an example, and some areas like home building, real estate and such. But largely, once the financial sector was contained, the crisis was contained, and this is no small task to do that, but the crisis was contained, and the recovery set in. Here, this is very different from 2008/2009 for a bunch of reasons. I mean, first and foremost, it’s hit the entire economy and it’s very dependent on the psychology of the consumer economic actors as to the rate and speed of the recovery. That is once we are – exit the social distancing measures, how do people behave and how quickly do they go back to their old – the economic habits they had prior to the crisis. That plus you also have the issue of the – just the sheer drop in aggregate demand and the very substantial unemployment and that becomes another factor that we have to watch carefully, because how quickly these unemployed get re-integrated into the economy affects also the ability for the economy to recover. So this is very different from 2008/2009. There are aspects of it that could allow for a quicker recovery. But there are also aspects of it that we have to watch very carefully that would make it more likely that this is an extended recovery more like what we described as a U or, for a better word, an elongated U. So that’s the first part. Now, how that impacts M&A and the stress is a difficult question to – and restructuring is a difficult question to answer right now. But I kind of think our sense is, is that we’re going to be in a liquidity constrained environment for sometime here. There is an initial burst of activity around restructuring with the advent of the crisis that involved a lot of companies which were already in a level of distress going into the crisis that was in the oil and gas sector, some in the retail sector. There is a lot of activity around that very quickly. Then you saw massive actions of the Fed, which have taken some of the liquidity concerns off the table and bought some time for companies. We expect that to probably result in more activity. It is resulting in more activity picking up now as people come to grips with the fact that they still are going to have liquidity problems, because this economy may not recover as quickly as people hoped. And so, that’s what I would almost call the second wave. And then, there is likely to be more that follows that. Now, as far as how it affects our pipeline, look M&A – restructuring never substitutes, at least our experience has been that M&A – restructuring never really substitutes for M&A dollar for dollar. That was in 2008/2009, we saw a very significant increase in restructuring backlog. But it never really substitutes M&A for dollar for dollar. But at the same time, it does provide a very important buffer. At least for us, it has in previous crisis, I expect it will here as well. Also the breadth of the Capital Advisory platform and the Sovereign Advisory platform also provides some buffering for us. And one of the things to watch is really when does M&A come back. Right now, there is very little activity. Our expectation is that, we’re probably going to see some activity like we did in 2008/2009 that is born out of distress, probably sometime in the summer across a range of sectors that have been hit hard here. And then, you have supply chain issues, which are going to have to be addressed, which lead to a classic buy versus build issue, which could lead to more activity. And then, ultimately, there is going to be a reconfiguration of companies, because there is a reconfiguration of the economy going on as a result of the pandemic that will likely take place. It’s hard to predict when all this happens, but it’s almost inevitable that we will see some activity as a result of the massive disruption that’s taken place.