Kenneth Jacobs
Analyst · JMP Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open
Sure. Okay. So let me just speak into our individual performance. I think just sort of it feels like we’ve hit one of those moments in time where we’re probably outperforming the market a bit. Certainly, when we look at our announcements in the second half of the second quarter into the third quarter now, it feels like we have a little bit better momentum than the markets do, that’s kind of nice. That was not the case last fall when we saw things start to fall off. So that’s nice. And that’s kind of the ups and downs of the business. I think, overall -- I think the market for M&A is okay. It's not great, it's not awful. It's okay. It's an okay period. And the factors that are driving I think are the -- we think are the following. First, this underlying catalyst that is disruption from technological change is really evident in almost everything that is going on in the M&A environment today and is very pervasive throughout boardrooms and very much on CEOs minds. Second is, you obviously have this very strong activity around activism, probably more than half of the activists campaigns today are driven around the M&A themes. So that's another catalyst for activity. A third one, which is early, I'd say, it's emerging. I don't think it's quite there yet in terms of driving activity, but that’s something to keep an eye on is ESG. This has become a factor, which is very important in Europe, in investors' minds, it is increasingly becoming more pervasive in U.S. Obviously, we're seeing it in our asset management business and you can see the investments we've made there. I think increasingly this is becoming a topic for boardroom discussions and ultimately it's probably going to become a topic around portfolio alignments in terms of businesses, where to invest, or not to invest. I don't think it's today a factor yet, but it's something that I think we all should keep an eye on with regard to M&A. And then you have the three traditional factors, sort of CEO confidence, credit and equity valuations. And I think in terms of CEO confidence, frankly kind of mixed. I think the geopolitical environment, the macro environment is, it gives them a little bit of pause. The trade wars have really made people think very carefully around investment and also supply chain. Ultimately that probably will have some implications from an M&A perspective, but it does give people some pause. Overall, though, this technology disruption, the underlying pressure from shareholders and activists around M&A, those are probably still positive catalysts from a confidence perspective. When you think about credit, credit conditions are as positive as I think they’ve been. Credit is still widely available. It's that -- rates are very, very low. Negative in some cases, financing for -- certainly for investment-grade companies is almost limitless at the moment. And for noninvestment grade still strong, private capital, private debt is still widely available, and sponsor activity is still very high as a result of that. And then, finally on equity valuations, it's kind of a mixed picture. There are some sectors that look really overvalued or fully valued. And then there are other sectors that seem to see a bit undervalued, but of course that’s all relative to what people expect in the macroeconomic cycles. So my takeaway from all this is that the M&A environment remains reasonable, constructive, it's okay. It's kind of -- its going to -- I think there's going to continue to be a reasonable amount of activity. And just from our own standpoint, I think our general feeling is, is we feel much better or better today about the first half of next year than we did probably sitting at this time last year.