Eric DeMarco
Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your question please
Thank you, Deborah. Kratos’ second-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA came in within our previously forecasted guidance range, with both being sequentially higher than Q1, including adjusted EBITDA increasing nearly 60%. And we continue to forecast the second half of 2015 revenue and EBITDA to both be sequentially higher than the first six months of the year. In Q2, Kratos’ mix of business trended more towards higher-value differentiated products, including unmanned systems, satellite communications, microwave electronics, and specialized training systems, with second-quarter satellite communication products and related cyber business gross margins of approximately 50% being represented of this favorable mix. We expect this favorable mix trend to continue into the second half of the year, with higher revenue and profitability in each of these areas, and lower than previously expected revenue in our modular systems business, with a certain large government agency program now pushing out into next year. In Q2, PSS’s revenues continue to trend lower, though at a higher margin rate, with PSS year-to-date booked gross margin on the majority of new programs being approximately 30% or higher, and with our most recent week’s bookings being at just under 34% gross margin. In the second quarter of 2015, PSS’s executed gross margins on programs were sequentially higher than Q1, with the month of June’s executed gross margins being the highest so far in 2015. We expect PSS’s gross margins and EBITDA rates to continue to increase in the second half of 2015, as older lower margin programs are completed, and new higher margin programs we have been booking continue to come online, with PSS 2015 revenues expected to be lower than we originally forecast, as we are aggressively focusing on these higher margin programs. Accordingly, and a result of the business mix changes, we continue to expect second half 2015 revenue and adjusted EBITDA to both be sequentially higher than the first half, with forecasted FY15 adjusted EBITDA remaining within our previous guidance of $50 million to $55 million, and revenues forecasted at $670 million to $690 million, driven as a result of the favorable business mix trend. This forecast is for our continuing operations and excludes the businesses we are divesting, and we are forecasting the FY15 adjusted EBITDA of $50 million to $55 million after making tens of millions of discretionary internally-funded investments, including approximately $17 million to $20 million of expected internal research and development, primarily focused on our unmanned systems and satellite communications business areas, which I will discuss momentarily. In Q2, we continue to experience significant contract protest activity. With Kratos obtaining a favorable result on one protest, losing another, and a third situation, with the Kratos team initially winning a new contract award, which was subsequently protested by the losing team, still being undecided at this time. The significantly increased number of protests is an industrywide problem, which shows no signs of abatement for the foreseeable future. And we are trying to incorporate this situation into our forecasting the best we can. In the second quarter, we continue to make progress on our UCAS or our UTAP 22 unmanned combat aerial system initiative, with our US government sponsor, with our demonstration flights remaining on track for later this year, with all three aircraft now off the production line, with systems and sensors being integrated. On our under-contract SSAT unmanned aerial drone program, we also continue to make progress. We recently had another successful development program test flight, and we remain on schedule to begin low rate initial production late next year. We also remain on schedule to begin low rate initial production next year on a separate new under-contract confidential UAS program that I mentioned for the first time earlier this year. Each of these under-contract unmanned aerial system programs are expected to be key future growth drivers for our Company. On our AVSAT unmanned aerial drone system program, we expect to begin deliveries of the first of approximately 25 aircraft under production lot 11 in Q3 of this year. And we are under contract for lots 12 and 13. AVSAT is expected to be a key growth driver for Kratos in the second half of 2015 and into 2016. We are also under contract with the government agency supporting unmanned systems swarming technology, and we recently demonstrated our technology with a swarm of a flight of nine unmanned aerial vehicles. We have additional tests and demonstrations with our products and technology scheduled also for the second half of this year. We are currently in discussions with a certain US government agency for a derivative of our high-performance 167 aircraft, where if we are successful, this customer could acquire up to 10 systems annually going forward. We were recently informed by a potential new international customer that they would like a BAFO, or a Best and Final Offer, on a large unmanned aerial drone system opportunity, where we have submitted a competitive proposal with initial value of approximately $20 million. And we are in discussions with another potential new international customer, which has recently indicated they would like to negotiate a multimillion dollar sole-source solicitation with Kratos for a high-performance unmanned aerial drone system later on this year. As we mentioned on our last call, we are in pursuit of and in the capture process on two tactical unmanned aerial system opportunities, either one of which if we are successful, could become one of the largest and most important programs in our Company. One of these program opportunities is currently expected to be awarded late this year, and the other in the first half of 2016. In the unmanned ground system and seaborne areas, we also continue to make important progress in Q2 on our strategic objective of being an industry-leading unmanned system provider, including in the command-and-control and onboard robotic automation, and unmanned vehicle mounted attenuator areas. We have recently entered into an agreement with one of the nation’s leading final stage truck manufacturers to develop the industry’s first unmanned autonomous truck-mounted attenuator truck, with a focus on mitigating or eliminating injuries and fatalities in the workplace. Additionally, we are now in discussions with a large state transportation agency regarding an unmanned truck-mounted attenuator robotic vehicle pilot program. We are also in discussions with the US federal government agency regarding the conversion of heavy armored combat vehicles to automation or robotic vehicles with Kratos unmanned systems technology. These are just some of the highlights of the progress we are making in the unmanned systems and robotic ground vehicle area, and why, as we mentioned in our last call, we have increased our business development, capture and IR&D discretionary spend for the pursuit of these important new program opportunities. Importantly, in the unmanned area and throughout Kratos, our strategy is to own critical intellectual property or design rights, which is also directly related to the significant discretionary investments we are making and the valuation of the business. In summary, we are making solid and demonstratable progress in our prime strategic unmanned systems area. We have two new large under-contract UAS programs entering production in late 2016, and we are in pursuit of several other large opportunities, all of which are expected to be key growth drivers for our Company. In Kratos’ satellite communications and related cyber business area, we are beginning the initial rollout of two of our new products, SpectralNet and SigX Protect, with initial feedback being positive. Part of our strategy with these new products is to familiarize our customers with this new technology. So for both new deployments and when the two to three-year ground infrastructure refresh buys occur, we are positioned for our products deployment. With the balance of year, we will be executing on this customer new product and technology familiarization plan. In the satellite ground command control and signal monitoring area, we are very excited about the progress we are making related to positioning Kratos’ command-and-control RF interference network operating and related cyber products and solutions for the growing small and nano satellite market, including both national security and commercial-related, with literally thousands of nano satellites expected to be launched over the next several years to address RF and optical communications, ISR, imagery and underserved geographies. Accordingly, today we announced Kratos’ quantumGND, a full-function, low-cost, low-risk ground system designed specifically for small satellites. Also in our satellite cyber and training business, we just last week received a $50 million sole-source single-award contract, which we have not yet formally announced. And in the satellite communications area, we were recently awarded a new unmanned aerial system-related award, which due to its nature, we will not be able to formally announce. In the second quarter, the Naval Surface Warfare Center announced a solicitation and intent toward Kratos’ on a sole-source basis 55 Oriole rocket motors and 20 Oriole thrust vector control systems, where Kratos had previously made a significant discretionary investment and owns the intellectual property, with these systems to serve BMD and other missions at the Pacific Missile Range facility, NASA Wallops flight facility, and other test ranges. These new contract awards and opportunities, including ARAV Oriole BMD, AVSAT, and several other new programs, including in the directed energy and electromagnetic railgun areas, are expected to be very important contributors to the second half of 2015 for Kratos, generating expected sequential revenue growth for Q3 over Q2, and an even increased sequential ramp for Q4 revenue above Q3. With the speed of technology change today, the long timelines of major defense acquisition programs – which can take 15 to 20 years in development, and many more years of procurement and service – these are no longer tenable. The changing global innovation environments specifically related to national security, and including that of our adversaries, is driving the Department of Defense to leverage outside commercial and industry-backed innovation to sustain its technological advantage while operating in a restricted budgetary environment. In response, the DOD is leading several initiatives, including a Defense Innovation unit based in Silicon Valley, which was established to identify emerging technologies and encourage stronger partnerships with innovative high-tech companies with leading-edge technologies. We believe that Kratos is very well-positioned for this changing DOD high-technology rapid deployment to fielded affordable-cost environment, which is driving our differentiated products and discretionary investment strategy, and are working in partnership with our customers to address their needs and requirements. Deanna.