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Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (KOF)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 22, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Coca-Cola FEMSA Fourth Quarter n Full Year 2017 Conference Call. As a reminder, today’s conference is being recorded. And all participants are in a listen-only mode. At the request of the Company, we will open the conference up for questions and answer after the presentation. During this conference call, management may discuss certain forward-looking statements concerning Coca-Cola FEMSA future performance and should be considered as good faith estimates made by the Company. These forward-looking statements reflect management's expectations and are based upon currently available data. Actual results are subject to future events and uncertainties, which can materially impact the Company’s actual performance. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Héctor Treviño, Coca-Cola FEMSA's Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, Mr. Treviño. Héctor Treviño: Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter 2017 results. Let me start by saying that 2017 was a very challenging year. However, our positive results clearly underscore of ability to adapt to complex environments, characterized by raw material cost pressures, especially sugar prices in Mexico, microeconomic issues in many countries where consumers continue to suffer from currency volatility and higher inflation such as in Mexico and Argentina, and the complicated consumer environment were limited this possible income leads them to shy away from our categories such as in Columbia and Brazil. Nevertheless, we continue to successfully navigate this aggressive environment to maintain market, reflecting our capacity to satisfy consumers that diverse lifestyle with a variety of better choices to our winning multi-category portfolio. Our strategic affordability initiatives building on our robust platform on return on presentation and inter-pass at magic prices and our accident point of sale execution. All of these capabilities coupled with our financial…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And first we will hear from Lauren Torres with UBS.

Lauren Torres

Analyst · UBS

Hector, if you could talk a little bit more about performance in Mexico, I think you noted that volume for brand Coke were down 2.5% in the fourth, and we also saw a modest decline in still. So can you just talk about the trends you’re seeing in Mexico? And as we think about 2018, is thing should look a bit weaker also a couple of strong years? And also continuing on Mexico, we had pressures on the cost side and on the expense side last year, should we think about some of those persisting or thing you get a bit better and thinking about recovery of lost margins this year versus last in light of some of these factors getting a bit better? Héctor Treviño: Good morning, Lauren. Good question, Mexico, let me try to reflect on what we’re expecting for Mexico. In 2018, the first half of the year, we will have a very tough comparison because last year performance of Mexico volume-wise and price-wise was very good. If you notice on the quarter by quarter basis, it was basically in the third and the fourth quarter that were impacted in our Mexico operations. There is a mix bag of reasons in that obviously we have the very difficult situation with two earthquakes in September and a couple of the hurricanes that hit the country with a lot of rain. Importantly when you segment the different areas of Mexico, you see a very clear underperformance on the states that are near to all this -- all related industries especially Tabasco and Veracruz, and even in Oaxaca. So no surprising the strength that have the lower performance in terms GDP growth are having the lowest performance in our mix of states. And if you're isolated the North part of…

Lauren Torres

Analyst · UBS

Yes, very clear. And there just one other part of that question was the brand Coke volumes. Is there anything specific to that number? Or just inclusive of your other comments? Héctor Treviño: No, I think in general the trends that we are seeing and that basically the same in all the territories. It's a sparkling volume been flat or slightly negative and some growth in the water category and in the distilled category. Sometimes in some of the countries it is important growth. In Mexico, we're seeing important growth of the distilled and important growth of water. And as you said, sparkling suffered a little bit in during these years during this quarter. I don’t think that there is nothing to worry. We have reviewed this statistics of the preference of the consumer for our brand, and they are good, they are as healthier as they were a few years ago in terms of what we call the brand loves for and the consumption price. We are -- as you know in every country, we have these trends of and it's not different in Mexico we have this negative of bringing and affordable to our consumers and therefore it did push for return ability that we are pushing it in every country including Mexico. So I don’t think that brand Coca-Cola is merely any of the specific I think that the capture to more with later and this situation at the end of the quarter but more I called that are weathers and what we have and in our we are launching anything specific with brand Coca-Cola any specific to worry about that our backlog.

Operator

Operator

And next will hear from Martha Shelton with BBVA.

Martha Shelton

Analyst · BBVA

I was wondering if you could comment on the level of profitability that you think you need to achieve in the Philippine in order to continue to maintain operations. Just trying to get a sense for given that the put option expires in January of 2019, what you are thinking about in terms of what we need to achieve in that market in order to exercise the caller, exercise the put production? Héctor Treviño: It's a tough question. Let me give you some of the facts. Fact number one, as you say we have a put option overall 2018. So many periods during 2018, we've done exercise the put. Fact number two, we have our Cola option they are ranging in 2012 and we could have a good exercise in that option. Very important for us at this moment and time is fact number three this performance of the Philippines is the better the system have had in the last 15 years. So both the Coca-Cola Company and Coca-Cola FEMSA up to December of last year we're very happy with aiming the business one word. The fact number four is that everything is changing start in January 1st and it's too early to really be able to a value or to value once what is the deferred market, deferred value of the Philippines under new circumstances because as I said in the Company remarks, we have some positive trends in the tax packets and what passed in the Philippines basically more jobs because a lot of infrastructure being built in coming years, the tax rate for the longer parts of the or for the poorest people in the Philippines but on the other hand we have these very high tax on profits, very high tax on oil and gasoline and…

Operator

Operator

And we'll next hear from Isabella Simonato with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Isabella Simonato

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

If you move a little bit to South America, Hector, if you could comment on the volume performance in Brazil. How much was organic this quarter? And how you're looking for performance throughout 2018? If you could you discuss your view for consumption in general soft drinks, and I'm not sure if you give any update on Heineken as well? Héctor Treviño: Let me start with [Indiscernible] something we're going to have. In Brazil, we saw I think a very good performance on pretty much in line to what we were expecting at the beginning of 2017. Remember, we said we’re starting -- we think that we hit the bottom thus what we were saying the first quarter last year and expecting a better trail in the second half and that’s really what’s happened. If you look at organic volumes in the field, we will grow our 7% year-over-year. When you include the volume of Vonpar that was not included in our 2016 numbers, and the report that volume growth in Brazil is very largest 21%, so -- but organically and we need to be careful and that’s why we do all these analysis of the comparable piece to isolate this on time events. So the organic number is 7%. For next year and this -- let me just again comment on this 2017, and the 7% volume was achieved to our combination of maintaining market prices introduction with turnover PET that has brought our average price per case on EBITDA. So when you look at our reported basis, volumes increase 21% as I said, but revenues 740 that to give you an idea that our average price per unit case is lower in Brazil. But that’s where we want to be, if we cautiously are taking the decision to improve the affordability on portfolio to return on packages at the introduction of the small packages for the -- what I'll call the end to packages. Have been said that, we continue to see good performance going forward in Brazil, volumes that are generally have been strong. Somewhere around low single digit numbers, volume growth of Brazil is a good number for our budget. We’ve seen that we will maintain prices at those levels with inflation. With respect to the Heineken situation, there is really not much we can discuss at this time. We still have obligation to keep the confidentiality of the process, as we said in the last conference call, the agreement that we had with Heineken provides for mechanism to resolve the differences. And what I can say at this moment is that, we continue to sell Heineken beers as of February. We need to wait for this mechanism that is valid in context to resolve the situation. On that basis what I can say is well enough.

Operator

Operator

And next we will hear from Rafael Shin with Morgan Stanley.

Rafael Shin

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Hi, Hector, thanks for the call. I just have a quick question on the Brazil beer. I see that I mean you guys have still a very strong fourth quarter with revenues going on almost 30%. So, I was just wondering if you can provide us with some color on, I mean which brands having a lot of momentum? Is that coming mostly from pricing and FX or volume? Any color on I guess Brazil beer growth could be, would be really helpful? Héctor Treviño: Well. Good morning, Rafael. Sorry, I had the phone on mute to maybe even not. Brazil beer, we continue to have very strong performance of all the brands but mainly it’s Heineken and Amstel brand. What has happened is that this trend with the consumer where, I don't know their right work is there where formulation of our competitor beer. I don’t know their right work is the formulation, but the fact that they used different grains is apparently -- also fast information we have from the marketplaces that the consumer is not necessarily liking those new formulas. And Amstel beer is growing very importantly from a very low base. And Heineken beer continues -- Heineken brand continues to perform very well. But in general, all prices are doing fine but despite against the volatility and dynamics that you see in the marketplace normally.

Rafael Shin

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

And any specific channel where you're going more? Héctor Treviño: No, in all channels, remember Valeria [ph] in Brazil which is very important on premise market and bass, we are growing wit soft drinks and with beers importantly in that segment in those channels.

Operator

Operator

And next move onto Alex Robarts with Citi.

Alexander Robarts

Analyst

Just one on Brazil and the other on sweetener, so if think about this soft drink industry recovery in Brazil this year. How are you thinking about the pace of operating leverage recovery? In other words after this multiyear contraction industry, where are you in terms of capacity utilization? And I guess there are a lot of prior examples of coming off of such a deep recession in Brazil, but I mean -- how do you gauge and think about the pace of getting that to more normalize utilization rate? Is that a multiyear process? It would be really interesting to hear your thoughts on this. Where are you now in other words in terms of capacity utilization? Where do you think you could be by the end of the year? And how long does it take to get to more normalized level? So that’s the first question. And the second is on sweetener. You've talked about the sugar trend in Mexico with some helpful color. When we think about high fructose, your dollar cost in for high fructose this year, if you could tell us, what that is shaping up to be in Mexico versus last year? And then just kind of your sugar outlook and trends for South America this year would be very helpful? Héctor Treviño: In terms of the capacity continuation, you are reading very well the situation in Brazil. Brazil went through a three year recession in our or reduction in the size of our industry and our company therefore volume. And remember that we've built state-of-the-art plant in the state of Minas Gerais two or three years ago. So Brazil is one of the countries where we have the lowest utilization of our production capacity. On the other hand, we have done some investments…

Operator

Operator

And next we'll move to Antonio Gonzalez with Credit Suisse.

Antonio Gonzalez

Analyst

I just have two quick ones, first a follow up on the Philippines. I presume that part of the strong volume performance that we saw in the fourth quarter was just some of your clients building up inventory ahead of the tax increase now. So I wanted to ask if you'd be able to comment, what you've seen so far in 2018, and I mean are you seeing a decline in volumes worse than what you should expect for the rest of the year, as these inventory built up gets depleted Or do you think that rate of decline has normalized already? And would you have any guesstimate I guess at this point that you could share in terms of what sort of elasticity you would be expecting? Or it's too early to share any of these points? Héctor Treviño: Good morning, Tony. I guess as I point out in the remarks, clearly the double digit performance in December, in my opinion, was also influenced by the fact that the tax everyone -- the retailers knew that the tax was coming starting January 1st. So have been said that, January was a month where we saw decline of around 17% to 18%. Having, all having increased prices in excess of 25% or increased prices to the consumer because -- just because of the tax impact. So in general, we were expecting a little bit decline because we think that elasticities in country like the Philippine that have very low per capita income or lower per capita income than some of the Latin American countries and lower consumption per capital, in other words the use of soft drinks in the normal diet is high compared to Asia that is now compared to Latin America. So we’re expecting elasticities -- elasticities .…

Antonio Gonzalez

Analyst

That was very clear. Thank you, and if I may just very quickly a follow-up on Venezuela as well, beyond the rate that you use to translate results and method that you used to consolidate. Can you give us a quick update please on what’s the status of your lines and warehouses and production facilities? Are you permanently shutting down any lines at the moment or that's not the case? Héctor Treviño: The short answer is we’re carrying a lot of problems finding purpose, but all the production lines all the distributor centers continue to work with very low capacity utilization. Remember that in Venezuela, it is very difficult to adjust headcount as you can imagine. So, we have our full production plants all of them running. In theory and we were selling close to 20 million unit cases per month and now we're selling 5 or 6. In theory, we could have shutdown some of the faculties. We're not doing that because we need to understand what the future of Venezuela is. Also have some plants are working, we're maintaining workforce. We are using all levers for salaries. We are using all levers to buy raw material. And I think that the decision that this board directors following the recommendation of management of basically the consolidated Venezuela, but our normal is an accounting adjustment, but basically what we want to do is to have a much more stable income statement going forward as we will not be reporting or we would not be consolidating Venezuela in our P&L, but you will only see a line in our balance sheet saying imbed shares that the value we have, right now that’s around P1 billion around $50 million. And the only impact that we will have going forward in our P&L is in case fair value will call for an increase or a decrease in the value goes that embedding shares that we have in our balance sheet. So, I think that given the difficulties in operating environment, I think that we will bring much more stability I guess to our P&L, I will not say transparency that we will all be very transparent and an isolating Venezuela of single operations when everyone understand what’s happening there. And as we said in the remarks and our press release, it’s just an accounting adjustment and we will continue to operating in Venezuela as normal. Again selling products, collecting revenue from our clients, using the Oliver will collect to pay salaries and to buy raw materials and let see what the value of this operation might be in the future.

Operator

Operator

And next we’ll move to Luca Cipiccia with Goldman Sachs.

Luca Cipiccia

Analyst

Just a quick one, I was hoping if you could share some comments about the dairy segment and not so much about the quarter, but how do you see that sort of casualty development and the relevance within your portfolio not only in Mexico, but maybe also in Brazil that now starting to get better? You made now an inroad in transparent beverages, dairy seems to be an area that is somewhat that represented in Brazil compared to other markets and even looking at some of your peers. And some assets came up few months ago, I guess it participate in that opportunity. But, I was curious to see how you see that category going forward. How important it will be and whether it can also have some role to play in Brazil in dairy? Héctor Treviño: Dairy is a category that is very different from soft drinks, but very I guess compatible with our capacities especially when you look at ambient products because you can use again the red top and the capillarity we have and the number of these as we do the devices we have with our pre-sellers to mange an increased number of SKUs. So clearly dairy is a very important category in the future of our company. Where are we? We have Estrella Azul in Panama that has not been performing that well financially. We are in a very important transformation Phase. We have a new state-of-the-art, a plant and will be up and running basically at the speed price. By midyear, we will finalize the closing of the old plant and starting the new one. So in Panama, we have this issue of having building a new plant and still operating in the old plant. And we're starting to open some of the lines…

Luca Cipiccia

Analyst

Hector, it’s very clear. Thank you for the discussion of explanation. Just on this last point about value adds with milk, without milk. How can you separate or be successful in the value-add without the rest? Does the willingness to maybe sort of embrace the dairy category more broadly in markets especially like Latin America, that resistance is it more from sort of a Coca-Cola global strategy standpoint? Or is it something that you know the bottlers you don't see as necessarily the successful to do it? I think it's a fair question now and at some point if you want to have scale, you know not add one without the other. That would be an argument, but when do you view I think Tony in Ecuador is a little bit of both discussed more balance, but when do you think this view is going to become more, more clear if you want to scale the dairy business. Héctor Treviño: Luca, In general what I can say is that we have worked together with the Coca-Cola company and not the bottlers to really understand better all that is involved with this. As I said we have not such good experiences such as with Panama, very good experiences like with Santa Clara and Mexico. We are very clear that at some point in time we'll have to scale this business and broadly that will imply M&A transactions. But that has not been fully defined, so some of the transactions that have happened recently probably were not at the right time for us because we are refining that definition space.

Operator

Operator

And next we'll hear from Joao Soares with Bradesco Bank.

Joao Soares

Analyst · Bradesco Bank

Hector, I was wondering if you could go back a little bit on Argentina and Brazil as well and talk a little bit about prices. How should we see the environment 2018? And do you guys expect to be a little bit more aggressive in terms of pricing? I mean here your competitors have a little bit more discount in order to resume growth. Can I think a little bit more that you're going to -- prices have been lined above inflation, how should we see that of 2018? And my second question, I understand you can't speak much about the Heineken process, but can you talk a little bit about your plan B? I know -- are you negotiating rather third parties to provide distribution services? Can we think that you’re going to compensate for those revenues? How should we see this? Héctor Treviño: You’re the second question, I didn’t follow. The first one is very clear, pricing, but let me answer the pricing and then you ask again the second quarter. Pricing in Argentina and Brazil, going forward, the strategy for 2018 is to continue pricing individual packages with inflation or little bit ahead of inflation. In Argentina, it's a little bit more difficult given the level of inflation that we have. I mean inflation is coming down importantly, but during 2017, we saw inflation hitting 25%. So that implied increasing prices at that level, some months you're a little bit ahead of inflation, some months you're a bit below inflation, but in general, the strategy to price with inflation. In Brazil, inflation has come down importantly and the strategy is the same; however, in Brazil we’re pushing very importantly for returnable packages. That might bring the average price per unit case a little bit below just because of mix effect. The Brazil strategy will be again to summarize. Pricing renewal package is occurring to inflation to maintain package in real term of the pricing levels and then we might see a little deterioration of the average price because of mix effect. And can you repeat the second quarter, please Joao?

Joao Soares

Analyst · Bradesco Bank

For the second question, briefly, I just want to understand if you have a plan B or backup plan for -- I mean if the Heineken process goes sour, are you considering going to other third-party industries? And there are other beer companies or maybe even other categories that you're willing to provide distribution services in order to compensate for the beer revenue that you might lose given the Heineken agreement terminated? Héctor Treviño: Right now, it’s a difficult question because obviously a plan B has crossed our minds and we need to be prepaid for that. But right now all the efforts are focused on finalizing this difference that we have with Heineken. As I said in our conference call, our will of the agreement that we have with Heineken is that this agreement will terminate on October 22nd -- excuse me, until 2022. So right now that’s where we’re, we cannot do anything regarding plan Bs or whatever. Obviously and the scenario where Heineken is independent from consistent, for us, beer is an important element, because as we said most of the retail system in Brazil sells beer and soft drinks together. So there is an important element of maintaining at lower cost per unit case in terms of distribution network.

Operator

Operator

And at this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Héctor Treviño for any additional or closing remarks. Héctor Treviño: Thank you everyone for your interest in Coca-Cola FEMSA and as always, if you have any doubts, our telephone lines open for any future questions. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And that will conclude today’s call, we thank you for your participation.