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Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (KOF)

Q3 2017 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 25, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, please standby. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Coca-Cola FEMSA Third Quarter 2017 Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. During the conference call, management may discuss certain forward-looking statements concerning Coca-Cola FEMSA's future performance and should be considered as a good faith estimate made by the company. These forward-looking statements reflect management's expectations and are based upon current available data. Actual results are subject to future events and uncertainties, which can materially impact the company's actual performance. At this time, I'd now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Héctor Treviño, Coca-Cola FEMSA's Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, Mr. Treviño. Héctor Gutiérrez: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter 2017 results. We continue to successfully navigate challenging consumer environment and cost pressures in some of our territories to deliver solid top line results for the third quarter of 2017. Our positive results were driven by our portfolio and pricing initiatives, point-of-sale execution, rollout of affordable presentations and financial discipline across our territories. As we previously announced, commencing February 1 of this year, we've started consolidating our Philippines results in our financial statements. Due to this consolidation, our results for the third quarter reflected a reduction in our share of profit of associates and joint ventures accounted for using the equity method, particularly in our Mexico and Central America division. We are encouraged by signs of consumer recovery in Brazil and Argentina and better-than-expected results in the Philippines for the quarter. In Mexico, we faced a complex operating landscape in September, resulting from the unprecedent earthquakes and hurricanes that softened the consumer environment. As part of our initiatives to drive transactions, such as volumes by fostering single-serve consumption, we highlight our transaction…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Antonio Gonzalez from Crédit Suisse.

Antonio Anaya

Analyst

I wanted to talk about Brazil. We've heard that in light of the illegal process between the Coca-Cola Bottlers and Heineken in Brazil, the distribution agreement, which on paper was supposed to be terminated by the end of this month, might actually extend a bit further. So I wanted to ask if you can give us any update on whether this is the case from the perspective of Coca-Cola FEMSA. And what are your thoughts on how quickly - irrespective of what the exact commodity in which the agreement gets terminated, what are your updated thoughts on how quickly can the Coca-Cola system find an alternative to this bigger volume that will be lost sooner or later and whether this can interrupt the pace of recovery and profitability that we're seeing in the country. Héctor Gutiérrez: In respect to Heineken, our position is that the contract is effective until 2022. And as you correctly pointed out, Heineken announced that they wanted to terminate the agreement basically next week. The agreement that we have provides for mechanism to resolve differences, and we are currently in that process, which have an obligation to keep confidential what has been discussed during the past. In the event that we are authorized by Heineken, or by Brazilian authorities or we will be able to disclose another details. And basically, Antonio, we are 1 week away from the time frame that Heineken provided last in the - for the - with the idea of this confidentiality towards this - the following week. And therefore, we will be willing to disclose so. But right now, we have this obligation of confidentiality, okay?

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Lauren Torres of UBS.

Lauren Torres

Analyst · UBS

I was hoping you could give a bit more perspective on your views on Mexico. As volumes were impacted, as you mentioned, as a result of the earthquakes and hurricanes in this quarter, but we've all been curious to see or hear if you are experiencing any pushback at the consumer level of slowdown. There's concern going into next year with the elections and we're hearing a lot about these NAFTA negotiations that the market could soften. And also the margin pressure that you're seeing on these sweetener and concentrate costs, and you're protecting that with pricing. But maybe a little bit more looking into next year, how do you feel about that? Do you think you could continue or get back some of those lost volume and grow volumes again and protect or grow your margins in light of the cost environment? Héctor Gutiérrez: Yes, let me speak a little bit about Mexico. It's still kind of - even though October is almost finish, let me give you some perspective on the consumer. July was certainly affected in - with respect to volumes. Volumes were affected by the fact that we increased prices in June, and that's what we were expecting during that month. August is at a positive volume trend, low single-digit volume growth. And then September was very complex for all our region. And since we have a lot of rain due to these hurricanes, lower temperatures led to these storms. And then we were hit by 2 earthquakes that affected especially the South of the country. October continues to be kind of soft with low single-digit reductions in volume. And what I was saying at the beginning, I'm still not sure if part of that has got - have to do with the areas that were…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Pedro Leduc of JPMorgan.

Pedro Leduc

Analyst · JPMorgan

Clearly on the Philippines, you've seen good few quarters now of margins perhaps above levels that we initially thought. Just looking to hear your thoughts on what's been driving it, even though performance are flattish there and mix that you just mentioned as well as an update on the perhaps tax discussions there, that would be useful. Héctor Gutiérrez: In the Philippines, if you recall some of my remarks in previous calls, we are seeing a substantial increase in the profitability in the Philippines. Still in the low-margin seasonality. Every year, first and second quarter have a better margin because of volumes than the third and the fourth quarter. And if you remember, during the beginning of the year, I spoke about 5% to 6% operating profit margin. So what we are seeing there in the Philippines is that we have this quarter somewhere around 3% operating income. It's still low compared to the level that we would like to see. And EBITDA margins, given all the investments we have done there is a double-digit margin number, which is good. The risks in the Philippines are potential restrictions on importing high fructose from Asia, especially from China, because of pressures from the local sugar cane producers. That could potentially affect our cost structure as local cost of sugar is higher than what we are importing from China. We do not have a definition on that, but that's the potential risk. And clearly, as you are saying, there is this potential tax on soft drinks that is being discussed in the Lower House and the Senate. Our understanding right now is that Congress is in a recess - [indiscernible] they are in a recess right now, and they will start discussing this towards the second half of November and first half of December. So our estimate is that if we were to have this tax, it will be more towards the beginning of next year. Difficult to know if this tax will go or not and what the level of this will be. And clearly, we will have to evaluate how to compensate potentially - in case this tax is passed, how to potentially compensate for those taxes and for an increase in sugar cost. A lot of the strategies in the Philippines right now is basically to continue growing volumes and increasing the profitability of the business as we dilute better our fixed cost structure through volume generation. And for that, as you have seen during the last year basically, we have been with prices in nominal terms more or less similar. So in real terms, we are with prices below inflation. That might need to change in case sugar prices or the tax, the potential tax is implemented. And we need to adjust our cost structure and efforts in the Philippines.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Isabella Simonato from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Isabella Simonato

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch

I have two questions. First of all, in Brazil, if you could share a little bit in more details what your expectation is of volume recovery next year, and if you could try to break down between CSDs and still beverages. And also in Mexico, if you could assess the outlook for raw materials next year as well as your FX hedges, those will be my questions. Héctor Gutiérrez: With respect to Brazil volumes, we assume - what's happening in Brazil in general terms, we have a very positive news in terms of the integration of Vonpar, so we have an important growth in volume terms. On a comparable basis, we are still - we have a small decline in the quarter, although as I mentioned September was a positive month. We are trying to maintain prices in local currencies in nominal terms. With small increases, it's hard to compensate for some of the cost increases that we have, and that has translated into very good profitability numbers for us in Brazil, obviously, after suffering a little bit more than 3 years of contracting volumes and contracting margins. So we are - it looks like, as I mentioned in the previous conference call, that the second half of the year is going to be much better in Brazil than the first half. So Brazil, we feel very confident that the volume trends, prices, margins are going in the right direction. With respect to raw materials - and we are clearly - our expectation for next year is we're expecting low to mid-single-digit volume growth both in CSDs and on stills, we are looking especially with substantial increase in all the categories. With respect to raw materials, we are seeing prices - our expectation is that prices for PET and sugar…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Martha Shelton of BBVA.

Martha Shelton

Analyst · BBVA

I was just looking at volumes in Colombia, and it looks like we're coming up on several quarters now of negative - a negative volume decline. And I know that's affecting other consumer companies in - that are operating in Colombia. So just wanted to get some insight into what you're thinking about in so far as how to approach Colombia, what to do to improve volumes and your thoughts on whether or not this is a result of really competitive pricing actions on the part of your competitor there or if this is really just a macro-oriented issue? Héctor Gutiérrez: Colombia is kind of, I guess, a question mark with respect to today's volume performance. The answer is, what we are seeing is a macro environment that is not good for our use. With this, volumes in Colombia declined 10% during the quarter compared to last year. And - but at the end of the day, we continue to gain market share because volumes for flavored drinks have decreased more than volumes for cola, so we have a much better position in cola. So our - the readings that we have from Nielsen and the likes is that we are to continue to increase market share. And therefore, it's not competitive pressures. It's the consumer that is not there. Very importantly, as we see with the Colombian consumer, the flavor that has been there for a couple of years is this strategy that we have deployed of going to returnable PET packages that was not present in Colombia before and that is helping our consumers to have a more affordable price. When you look at returnable glass, we have increases in volumes in those packages. So I think that the strategy is well designed. We are doing the right things for the market. But what we like to see is for the consumer to come back to that category and start to have a positive trend in volumes that will benefit a lot the profitability of our operation in Colombia. Because we have been decreasing volumes more and more, those are the golden cases that bring a lot of the profitability for our operation in Colombia. Okay? Thank you, Martha.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Alex Robarts of Citi.

Alexander Robarts

Analyst · Citi

I did want to go back to the quarter and the results, specifically around South America, and what struck me was really the trend at the OpEx level. The quarter seemed to show that we had mid-teen, or actually 16%, increase in the South American operating expenses year-on-year, kind of twice the rate of growth of sales. And I'm wondering if this sharp increase relative to sales is in some way partly reflecting the salary increases that you talked about earlier in Argentina. Could it also be - wondering if it could reflect this - you talked about a new distribution platform in Brazil and might that involve some front-ended OpEx. And just kind of getting a sense, I mean, is mid-teen growth in OpEx something that we should be thinking about for next couple of quarters? So that's the main question. And the last thing is just a clarification. Did you - is it safe to assume that this discussion around high fructose imports in Philippines is, in fact, separate from the piece of legislation around fiscal reform? Or - I was under the impression that it was, but you seem to be saying that it's actually a separate line of potential change in the Philippines. Héctor Gutiérrez: With regard to the first point, OpEx in South America. We have some increases basically related to what you described - that I described during the opening remarks, which has to do with labor cost in Argentina increasing. Similar to inflation of last year, that was much higher than what we have now. So in real terms, when we look at these numbers, the contrast of what we share with you is a substantial increase in real terms mid-year. You can argue that last year, we had inflation, and salaries were…

Alexander Robarts

Analyst · Citi

Yes. I appreciate that, and that's helpful. Just a clarification though on the OpEx. I mean, I understand the Vonpar expenses weren't there in the prior year period, but neither were the sales. So it was really - what was interesting is OpEx growing twice the rate of sales. But I can follow-up offline. And just on the Brazilian distribution platform, I mean, just if you - that was kind of the other piece of that. Could you comment on how that's going and what your expected outlay for that and opportunity to save or to be more effective at go-to-market? That would be great. Héctor Gutiérrez: Yes, Alex. In the digital platform, we are deploying 2 basically main products. One has to do with all the digitalization. And basically our salespeople going to the market with basically a smartphone with very targeted initiatives. But our expectation is either to improve a bit the volume because you have more targeted initiatives, but certainly, improve the net price that we receive as we better design promotional activity and avoid discounts or promotional activities that are - that will not create an important traction on volume. The fact that - our expectation is that we will be able to better track and analyze the effectiveness of these promotional activities. On the other front, we are also moving into a more coordinated, better-designed logistics network that could bring about some additional savings in Brazil. That second part is more towards 2018. The first part in the description, the smartphone, is already working there. I think that we are seeing some of the effects of the commercial platform by looking at the execution in the point-of-sale and the scores that we are getting in that front. We were basically - the last of the - with respect to the different bottlers in Mexico in terms of the scores that they were getting. We are #1 now, and Vonpar is moving very rapidly also on the scale on this execution, of course, which clearly signals for us that this commercial platform is helping in that form, Alex. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Felipe Ucros from Scotiabank.

Felipe Nunez

Analyst · Scotiabank

Maybe if could have a follow-up on Colombia volumes. One of the issues that we're having trouble understanding is that while we do understand there was clearly a macro shock from the tax reform at the end of last year and the consumer suffered quite a bit, we are kind of seeing a rebound in retail sales, and it seems like consumer confidence is also rebounding. And some of the other consumer companies we follow in the country, although they reported positive volumes in second Q and are expecting again positive volumes in 3Q, and in my mind, that's why I'm kind of missing something in the puzzle. I'm assuming that your volumes are still contracting in a very strong way, but I'm seeing other sectors in consumer recovering a lot more quickly. If you could comment a little bit on what you think is driving something different from you guys and from the rest of the industry, that'd be great. Héctor Gutiérrez: Yes, Felipe, it's a strange trend because we see the numbers that you are describing, and they are correct. Some of the retailers including [indiscernible] stores, however, are starting to perform better. The consumers in our industry is not reacting the same way. What strikes the most is that, as I mentioned, we continue to gain traction with returnable PET, which is a more affordable presentation, but returnable PET is growing. And we continue to gain share, and that clearly signals that it is more like an industry trend that is affecting the consumer. Per capita consumption of our industry in Colombia has been one of the lowest for many years in the 10 countries that we have. And our take of this is that the consumer has other options, including tap water and juices from fruits. So the fact that our share is stable or growing a little bit, it kind of indicates to all that we are moving with the right strategies in the marketplace. But it's a strange trend. We are following very closely other industries, other companies, consumer goods companies, as they report, and it's strange that our industry continues to have this kind of volume decline. Our expectation is that for next year, we'll see some pickup in volume in the mid-single digit, but that's basically our budget after having softer several years with volume declines in this country. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Álvaro García from BTG. Álvaro García: I want to go back to organic volumes in Brazil. I mean, the organic decline was quite impressive especially in light of what the Coca-Cola Company mentioned of a high single-digit decline this morning for the country as a whole. I guess, my question is, diving a little deeper, what really is driving that? Is it an effect of a lower base? Is it digitization? What exactly is driving this outperformance vis-à-vis the rest of the country? Héctor Gutiérrez: We saw the Coca-Cola Company report, and we shared some of this information with the rest of the bottlers. And we are seeing that trend, which is very positive for us in the sense that we believe that because of the efforts with affordability with single-serve presentations that continue to be at Magic Prices with returnable PET and the very important improvement in execution in the point-of-sale, I believe that's what is explaining this differential in the performance during this quarter. And that's basically our belief. I don't remember exactly how we were comparing versus the other bottlers in previous years, but clearly, the efforts on those 2 fronts, on affordability and execution, we believe, are giving us this opportunity to improve much better than the rest of the fleet.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Benjamin Theurer from Barclays.

Benjamin Theurer

Analyst · Barclays

I just wanted to go back to Mexico, and thank you very much for giving a little more detail on the volume outlook, how it behaved throughout the quarter and obviously there were certain one-timers. But I'd like to dig in to actually the performance on transactions. So we clearly have seen significant decline of almost about 4.5% in transactions in Mexico. So with the price increase in July, how did that translate on transactions? And then how did August perform? And then what ultimately happened in September? So that we get a little bit of a sense of how you've been doing on the transactions in Q3 considering that in Q2, we had actually a decline in transactions in Mexico, there just to get a little more clarity on the transaction picture. Héctor Gutiérrez: As you pointed out, we have been struggling a little bit in Mexico with this formula where we like to see transactions growing more than volume and revenues growing more than transactions. So that's the matching equation that we'd like to see there. In the case of Mexico, and probably because of this soft environment with the consumer that I described and certainly affected by the earthquakes and rain, hurricanes, but what we are seeing is the consumer moving strongly to multi-serve, returnable PET, especially the 2-liter presentation. And we are seeing a decline in some of the single-serve presentations, especially 600-milliliters. Several facts. Obviously, the price per ounce or the price per liter in the large packages is more affordable to the consumer, so that volume is growing. The 600-milliliter is now being priced basically around MXN 12, which is in a way moving away from the MXN 10 Magic Price Point. When you have inflation, it's difficult to maintain this Magic Price Points as the inflation in Mexico pickup. It's still at manageable levels, but - in the 6% to 7%. And the alternative is to start trying to maintain this Magic pricing with different presentations. And that's what we are doing, introducing 400-milliliters, 500-milliliters, et cetera, including some returnable glass presentations that continue to have attractive prices for the consumers. But in general, what we are seeing is this trend towards larger packages and the smaller packages or the single-serve packages softening a little bit more. I don't recall exactly, Benjamin, how that transaction behaves month by month, but we can follow up in a different question. But it's very similar to the volume. It's a negative July, slightly positive August, sort of flattish, and a negative September because of what we described in the Q as [indiscernible] we can share probably better numbers later on.

Operator

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, that's all the time we have for questions today. Héctor Gutiérrez: Okay. Thank you so much for your interest in Coca-Cola FEMSA. And as always, we'll be available to answer any of your remaining questions. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our call. We do appreciate your participation, and please have a great day.