Robert Lewin
Analyst · Bank of America
Thanks a lot, Craig, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by saying a few words on the operating environment. As you know, the third quarter and really the first 9 months of 2022, were very challenging across markets. High levels of inflation are clearly impacting global consumers, while the sharp increase in interest rates has had multiple knock-on effects that will invariably slow much of the global economy. In turn, equity and bond indices have been very volatile and virtually all of them are down significantly year-to-date. And capital markets activity has meaningfully slowed. Global equity and credit issuance is significantly below historical norms. Now despite all of this volatility and uncertainty, the overall mood and sentiment across KKR is quite positive. And we thought it would be worthwhile this morning to go through 5 key reasons why we feel the way we do. First, let me remind you why our business model positions us well for periods like this one. There are a few key reasons why. About 90% of our capital is perpetual or committed for an average of 8 years or more from inception. Our management fees are largely calculated on committed or invested capital. And as a result, are more insulated from fluctuating NAVs of our funds. Therefore, much of our management fees are highly predictable, and that visibility in turn, provides us with the continued ability to invest back into the firm for growth. We also have $43 billion of committed capital yet to turn on that has a weighted average management fee rate of about 100 basis points. And finally, and may be most critical in moments like these, we have $113 billion of uncalled capital from our investors that we can use to invest into the current dislocation. While those statistics are all meaningful in their own right, I think it's also helpful when viewed in comparison to where we were as a firm, even a short while back. 2.5 years ago, March 31, 2020. So right as we entered COVID, we had $57 billion of dry powder with $19 billion of committed capital yet to earn management fees. That compares to the $113 billion and $43 billion I mentioned a moment ago. So both of these figures have doubled more or less over the last 2.5 years. And when you consider our relative positioning as a firm, those numbers don't account for the significant increase we have had in perpetual capital. largely due to our partnership with Global Atlantic and our acquisition of KJRM as well as the meaningful increase in the diversification of our business, both by geography and strategy. This brings me to my second reason for optimism. We're fortunate due to our fundraising success and definitely a bit of luck on timing that we are in a position to deploy a significant amount of dry powder with asset prices more dislocated and while capital is quite scarce. As a result, we are starting to become a lot more constructive on our opportunity sets. We are already finding opportunities across the credit landscape. Our real estate and corporate credit teams are all very active. But more exciting is our outlook for the coming 12 to 18 months across all asset classes and geographies. We are mobilizing our teams and resources against what we see as a growing opportunity to put our client capital to work. Take for example, in private equity. Oftentimes, our best vintages result from investments made during periods of market distress. Think the early 2000s, the GFC or what we went through a couple of years ago. We think 2023 could present such an opportunity. And the key here is that we have really set ourselves up to be able to outperform in this environment, given our expertise and breadth across geographies, industries and asset classes. And most importantly, our culture really incentivizes our people to work across the firm to ensure that both information and capability travel and that we can make each other better. As a result, we are uniquely positioned to find creative and attractive investment opportunities. Turning now to performance, which is my third point. Please turn to Page 8 of the earnings release. As Craig went through every quarter, we report our investment performance for the quarter and trailing 12-month period across our major asset classes. This really though, only tells part of the story as it doesn't capture investment returns since inception. These funds all continue to outperform their comparable public indices. Our clients, really all channels relying us to produce differentiated outcomes compared to what they can achieve in traditional asset classes. And that is just what we've been doing. Now to be clear, we certainly have today and will, in the future, a handful of more difficult situations to manage. But our thematic approach, which we have talked about many times, and our focus on portfolio construction, are 2 critical reasons why you see this kind of outperformance, which brings me to my fourth point. The strength of our fund performance continues to allow us to raise capital from our investors. Q3 new capital raised of $13 billion brings year-to-date fundraising to $65 billion. To put that number in perspective, that's already our second best year of fundraising ever, and we still have a quarter to go. Even more notably, this was against a much more challenging fundraising backdrop than the past few years and with many of our largest flagships in the market. And looking ahead over the next 12 to 18 months, we continue to have a really active calendar and remain constructive about the outlook for scaling our strategies that are coming to market. And finally, I want to turn to my fifth point. and focus on the competitive differentiation that our balance sheet creates in periods like these. There's not a corporate that I know that doesn't wish they had more capital availability right now. And we are very confident in our ability to deploy our excess capital in opportunities that can both generate compelling investment returns and also help build and scale the firm at the same time. Part of what generates this confidence is the strength of our existing investment portfolio. Our focus on asset allocation and really where the puck is going, has served us well. While the S&P 500 declined 15% over the last 12 months, our balance sheet was off only 4.7%. And over the last 3 and 5 years, our annual returns have been 16% and 14%. Also several hundred basis points ahead of the S&P over these periods. One of the key drivers of this outperformance is the shift that we made a few years ago to increase our exposure to real assets. The fair value of our real assets investments have increased from $2.4 billion 2 years ago,to $4.2 billion as of 9/30 and today represent almost 1/4 of our investment portfolio. Our largest allocation on the balance sheet remains core private equity, and this really gets into business building and how the balance sheet allows us to play offense. As a reminder, core PE is a long-duration investment strategy, where we expect to hold these investments for 10 to 15-plus years and believe they carry a more modest risk return profile compared to our traditional private equity model. We're looking for mid- to high-teens gross IRRs that we can compound for north of a decade. These are businesses we believe have strong secular tailwinds with defensible market positions, solid cash flow dynamics and as a result, benefit from a more stable earnings profile. So from a standing start 6 years ago, we've put together this really incredible global portfolio of 17 companies with $32 billion of AUM that is both third-party capital together with balance sheet capital. We believe we have the largest core asset management business in the world. And as shareholders, we are all participating in core PE through the compounding of value on our balance sheet, alongside the management fees, capital markets revenue, fee-related earnings and carried interest that is generated over time. That combination is incredibly powerful. Our acquisition of Global Atlantic in July 2020, right on the heels of COVID, is perhaps the best example of how our balance sheet positions us to play offense when others could not during that period of severe dislocation. We have deep conviction that GA can be a long-term compounder of capital much like core private equity, and we are partnered here with a first rate management team. So far, GA has been performing exceptionally well. Over the last 12 months, they have generated an ROE of about 21%. And well ahead of our expectations. While AUM has increased from approximately $70 billion at announcement to over $130 billion as of 9/30, really helping to also drive our asset management economics. Core Private Equity and Global Atlantic are great examples, but they're just 2 of many. We know that our model will continue to allow us to find ways to use the balance sheet where we can simultaneously generate compelling investment returns and also use it to grow and scale the firm at the same pace. We have also created a liability structure on our balance sheet that allows for playing real offense in this environment. We have very intentionally funded ourselves with long-dated liabilities that have fixed cost of capital. The average maturity of our recourse debt is around 20 years, and it is a weighted average fixed coupon of approximately 3% after tax. Obviously, that just isn't replicable today and represents a huge asset for us right now. With all of this, hopefully, it's clear why we remain so excited about our long-term opportunities. So in summary, number one, our model is durable and diverse with significant recurring revenues. Two, the next 12 to 18 months should present great deployment opportunities and we are extremely well positioned to invest into them. Number three, we are generating excellent investment performance on behalf of our clients. And fourth, our fundraising success has been notable, especially given the backdrop, and we remain very well positioned to achieve growth from here. And finally, number five, our balance sheet is a strategic differentiator whose value is even more meaningful in moments like these. The opportunity set in front of us over the next 5 to 10 years is immense, and we have never felt better positioned competitively. That's why the tone inside the firm is so constructive right now. Our long-term goals that we have articulated for 2026 are unchanged, and we have a great deal of confidence in our ability to achieve that. And with that, Scott, Craig and I are happy to take any questions that you have.