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Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)

Q2 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 1, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Suzanne and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Kinross Gold Corporation Q2 2019 Results Conference Call and Webcast. All participants are in a listen-only mode to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Tom Elliott, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Mr. Elliott, you may begin your conference.

Tom Elliott

Analyst

Thank you, and good morning. With us today we have all four members of our senior leadership team, namely Paul Rollinson, Andrea Freeborough, Paul Tomory and Geoff Gold. Before we begin, I'd like to bring to your attention the fact that we will be making forward-looking statements during this presentation. For a complete discussion of the risks, uncertainties and assumptions, which may lead to actual results and performance being different from estimates contained in our forward-looking information, please refer to page 2 of this presentation, our news releases dated July 31, 2019, the MD&A for the period ended June 30, 2019, and our most recently filed AIF, all of which are available on our website. I'll now turn the call over to Paul.

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open

Thanks, Tom and thank everyone for joining us today. As you will have seen in our news releases last night, in addition to our second quarter results, we announced an agreement to purchase a high quality development project in the Far East of Russia, complementing the excellent business that we have had for many years in that region. I'm excited to share with you the details of this transaction at the end of our remarks. But first, we will be providing an overview of our second quarter results. So turning now to the results, I'm pleased to say that, with strong production and excellent cost performance across our portfolio during the first half of the year, we are on track to meet our 2019 guidance targets for production, costs and capital expenditures. Paul Tomory will have more details on our operations and projects. But I would like to highlight the continued strong performance of our three largest operations: Paracatu, Kupol and Tasiast, which also delivered the lowest costs in our portfolio. Together, in the first six months of the year they produced over 60% of our total ounces at an average cost of sales of just over $600 per ounce. Paracatu achieved particularly impressive results, marking the third consecutive quarter of record production and the fifth consecutive quarter of declining costs. The combined Kupol-Dvoinoye operation maintained its long track record of consistent high performance. And at Tasiast throughput continues to average well above expectations and costs continue to trend lower, making this the third consecutive quarter Tasiast has reduced its costs. In short, Tasiast is making great progress to becoming a large low-cost producer. Also at Tasiast, we are continuing to advance our evaluation of lower capital alternatives for increasing throughput. We continue to believe that the outperformance of the…

Andrea Freeborough

Analyst

Thanks, Paul. I'll begin with a few financial highlights from the quarter. Increased production and improved cost performance combined to deliver strong financial results in the second quarter. Our global portfolio produced approximately 648,000 ounces with an average cost of sales of $663 per ounce and an all-in sustaining cost of $925 per ounce. We sold 12,000 fewer ounces than we produced in the quarter largely due to the timing of sales at Bald Mountain. We generated approximately $288 million in adjusted operating cash flow, which is a $56 million increase over the same period last year. This is largely due to higher margins as our attributable margin per ounce sold increased by approximately 20% compared to the same period last year. During the quarter, we realized an average gold price of $1,307 per ounce, which is in line with the same period last year. Prevailing gold prices and other key commodity and currency rates have performed favorably compared to our budget assumptions for the year. We also continue to look for opportunities to lock in favorable FX rates and other inputs with our hedging program, which positions us well in the current environment. Adjusted net earnings were $80 million for the quarter or $0.06 per share compared with $38 million or $0.03 per share for the second quarter of 2018. Net earnings were $72 million compared with $2.4 million in Q2 of last year. The increase was primarily the result of higher operating earnings, partially offset by an increase in income tax expense. Continuing with tax, we received a $66 million AMT refund in Q2 resulting from the 2017 U.S. tax reform legislation. We expect to receive subsequent refunds in decreasing amounts over the next three years. Turning to our outlook for the remainder of the year, we are…

Paul Tomory

Analyst · Steven Butler from GMP Securities. Your line is open

Thanks, Andrea. I'll be walking you through some of the key highlights of our global portfolio touching on both operating performance and project updates. I'll start with Paracatu, which as Tom noted had a particularly impressive second quarter. Production increased by almost 40,000 ounces compared to the first quarter, while cost declined by $75 an ounce. On our last call I outlined several factors that are driving Paracatu's strong performance and these include results of the asset optimization work which we completed last year benefiting throughput and recovery; continuous improvement efforts; and enhancements made to mine infrastructure most notably in the power plant. In addition to these measures which continue to contribute to strong performance, Paracatu has also benefited from strong grades this past quarter as we were mining in the high-grade portion of the ore body as had been anticipated in the mine plan. As I've stated in the past there is some variability in the ore of Paracatu and in July mining transition to a lower grade phase of the pit. Overall, we are extremely pleased with Paracatu's performance and expect 2019 to be a strong year for the operation. Turning to Tasiast. Throughput continues to outperform our original expectations. The combination of higher than anticipated mill throughput and recovery resulted in approximately 93,000 ounces of production. This is slightly lower than Q1 largely due to planned lower grades which we expect to improve for the balance of the year. We're also making good progress on the cost side, decreasing by $4 an ounce compared to Q1 largely as a result of a focus on operating efficiencies and also lower operating waste mined. Our project team is making great progress on the study of throughput alternatives in order to assess the most capital-efficient next step for Tasiast and…

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open

Thanks Paul. I'm now pleased to share with you the details of our agreement to acquire 100% of the Chulbatkan development project. The transaction involves total consideration of $283 million over two years comprised of 40% cash and 60% shares. Upside payments in the form of a 1.5% royalty and a $50 per ounce payment for potential reserve additions beyond 3.25 million ounces of 2P are also included in the consideration and highlight the expectation from both parties that this asset has the potential for substantial growth. This is a really exciting opportunity where we have spent the past 16 months completing a significant amount of due-diligence including several site visits, an eight hole confirmatory drill program and a met testing program that confirmed favorable characteristics and recoveries. And I'd point out that throughout our drilling and met testing programs we maintained a strict chain of custody to ensure sample validity during the due-diligence process. We see four strategic reasons why this is the right acquisition for Kinross. First, this is a high quality development project with strong upside potential. Chulbatkan has a large resource estimate of approximately 4 million ounces and has a relatively high grade, near surface, low strip open pit, heap leachable deposit. The project already has the potential to be a substantial producer with an attractive cost structure. Based on our initial work, we estimate that Chulbatkan could produce 1.8 million ounces over a 6-year mine life with first quartile all-in sustaining costs in the $550 per ounce range. In addition there is significant upside potential beyond the 4 million ounce resource estimate as the deposit is highly continuous and is open along strike and at depth. There are also multiple untested high quality targets within the 120 square kilometer exploration license. Second, this project leverages…

Operator

Operator

Operator: Thank you very much. [Operator Instructions] Okay. And our first question comes from the line of Stephen Walker of RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open.

Stephen Walker

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open

Great. Thank you very much. Paul, just a question on Chulbatkan. I guess two parts. The first part is the Subsurface Mineral Act. Do you need permission from the resource ministry to own 100%, or does that come automatically with the transaction? And then secondly, can you talk a little bit about the infrastructure road access river access, access from existing operations just a bit more on the infrastructure?

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open

Sure. Thank you, Steven. Good question. We did have some disclosure around that subsurface and what we think might be required in terms of approvals. But maybe I'll give Geoff an opportunity to respond.

Geoff Gold

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open

Thanks, Paul. Yeah. Steven look maybe just a little bit of context. Basically, under a literal interpretation of the law strategic approval for the project is not required, because the current registered resource with the authorities of one million ounces does not exceed the strategic 50 tonne threshold. However, you would have seen in our press release and as Paul has alluded to that we do have our own estimate of 3.9 million ounces that does exceed the threshold. As a result, what we're doing is seeking guidance from the authorities on whether strategic approval is required. If it is, we would make the filing and would expect to receive that approval in six to eight months. Just for context we have successfully filed two applications in the past and we're pretty comfortable with this one and we plan on maintaining our good relationships with the authorities.

Stephen Walker

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open

Great. Thanks Geoff and Paul maybe you can speak a little bit to infrastructure access.

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open

Right. The area as Paul mentioned earlier has a good base of mining in the general area of Khabarovsk and the two nearest major cities -- Khabarovsk obviously is the state capital. And then closer to the site is a city called Komsomolsk-on-Amur. Both of them are significant sized industrial bases. The site is accessed with all-season road that gets us most of the way there and then beyond that there are seasonal and logging roads that access the site. Part of the project will be upgrading that infrastructure. But very beneficially to a potential project there, the site is immediately adjacent to a significant river and is accessible by barge. So on a relative basis this site is significantly more accessible than say Kupol is.

Stephen Walker

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open

Thank you, Paul. Paul Rollinson maybe just stepping back and -- you spoke a little bit about Tasiast earlier and post the election with a new President and the senior ministers that are in place in Mauritania. Can you talk a little bit about how you expect the process to unfold here in the discussions with the government and reestablishing dialog with the government? To date, do you think it's a situation where it will be sort of an amicable sort of discussion on what the future taxes could be, or do you think it's a case of, how do I put it, chicken where you're going to see who flinches first when it comes to making concessions? Do you think that there is room for amicable negotiations here on some of the issues that were brought up by the previous administration?

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open

Yeah. Look -- thanks Steven. Again good question, just real-time, the inauguration of the President is actually happening today. It may well be over by now, so just inaugurated. Next steps will be formation of a cabinet. I expect that'll take a couple of weeks. And as we understand there is a desire to sit down and -- on both sides and meet the new administration. So, I would say, we're feeling very good. The electoral process was very smooth. International commentators have come out with a, sort of, favorable commentary on the entire process, and during the election campaign this particular individual was very pro-business and pro foreign investment. So, yeah, look we're feeling very good about re-engaging with this new administration. The issues, again let me remind you, are not significant. They're typical of what we'd expect in many countries. A lot of it relates to supply chain and procurement and that sort of thing. And as you have seen, the site itself has continued to just do exceedingly well, third quarter, fourth quarter, first quarter, so certainly our discussions with the previous administration and the discussions we hope to have with this new administration have not in any way impacted -- project has done exceedingly well. I guess the last thing just on a note of kind of goodwill, we of course, were invited to the inauguration today, and we did have several members of our team at the inauguration. So we're feeling pretty good about how things have evolved there.

Stephen Walker

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open

Thanks for that Paul. And again, one last question, and I apologize for taking up so much of the Q&A. But capital allocation with now Chulbatkan, as a potential project, La Coipa basically in hand, feasibility at Lobo, pre-feasibility, the Tasiast expansion, other organic projects, how are you thinking about capital allocation over the next three to four years? What should we think about and investors think about how you're going to be spending that capital as it stands at the moment?

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open

Sure. And again another good question. Well in the near term and the medium term the priority again will be Tasiast and La Coipa. As we've said, we're going to come out with our revised optimized thinking in mid-September for Tasiast, and again, we've said, we'll come out with the completed feas results on La Coipa later this fall. So those are the near-term priorities. I think though, as we look out to the medium term, there will be -- and that's the way we set things up here. There'll be -- not to say we can't do both, but Lobo-Marte and Chulbatkan may well compete for capital and we'll be completing studies on both of them around the same time. So Chulbatkan it'll be in the next wave behind La Coipa and what we intend to do at Tasiast.

Stephen Walker

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open

Thank you very much Paul.

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open

Thanks, Stephen.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. And our next question comes from the line of Steven Butler from GMP Securities. Your line is open.

Steven Butler

Analyst · Steven Butler from GMP Securities. Your line is open

Good. Thanks operator. Good morning guys. Well, question for you guys on the recovery assumptions that you've generated for Chulbatkan. It was quite clear in the release, unless I missed it, but what's the indicated recovery on the work that you've done to-date on the heap leach?

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · Steven Butler from GMP Securities. Your line is open

Look again Steve I'll hand off to Mr. T. here, but -- I think 16 months of work lots of due diligence, but I think our starting assumption is relatively conservative. But Paul, do you want to maybe comment a bit more on what we used?

Paul Tomory

Analyst · Steven Butler from GMP Securities. Your line is open

Right. So for the numbers in the press release on the life-of-mine production, we based that on a three-stage crush getting to 60% recovery which is at the conservative end of what we think we might be able to get to. But we want to get through the next round of studies before we potentially increase that number. But the number is 60%.

Steven Butler

Analyst · Steven Butler from GMP Securities. Your line is open

Is there a sulphidic component to it Paul? It strikes me, but that’s great that the recovery would like to be a bit higher, but anyway?

Paul Tomory

Analyst · Steven Butler from GMP Securities. Your line is open

It's not unusual for heap leaches that kind of margin that we are running in the mid-60s. Tasiast gold bleach was around 50%. So this is a pretty clean leaching oxide. And as I said there is potential to improve that more test work. We just want to be conservative in our initial estimates.

Steven Butler

Analyst · Steven Butler from GMP Securities. Your line is open

And guys, the resource you talked about being open along strike at depth is it -- I mean that is the case? I mean the drilling sort of defined over such a straight-line 3.9 million indicated ounces and it's just a matter of where the drills start turning? Is that the idea?

Paul Tomory

Analyst · Steven Butler from GMP Securities. Your line is open

Well and that's -- one of the most exciting things about this project is that on the one hand the base case alone is a very attractive project, the heap leach the numbers we've put out there. But most of the holes terminate in grade and it is truly an open deposit and we are already building the exploration program for next year and it will have a very significant component of drilling at Chulbatkan. So it is very prospective and very exciting.

Steven Butler

Analyst · Steven Butler from GMP Securities. Your line is open

Okay. Thanks guys.

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · Steven Butler from GMP Securities. Your line is open

Thanks Steve.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Grant McAdam of Economical Insurance. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Grant McAdam

Analyst · Grant McAdam of Economical Insurance. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Hi. Can we assume that Kupol won't go past 2025, or is there a scenario where you can run both? Thanks.

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · Grant McAdam of Economical Insurance. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Absolutely do not assume it can't run past. We've had a great success of finding ounces through the course of the year and that goes back several years. It is an underground operation and there is a limit to how far we can get ahead of the curve. But I do like to remind people that when that asset came into our company the mine life was 2017. And if you look in the rearview mirror each year we've had very good success in continuing to find ounces as we're mining throughout the course of the year. And I see no issues in our ability to continue to run or have both operations running together.

Paul Tomory

Analyst · Grant McAdam of Economical Insurance. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Yeah. We have a -- you'll see in AIF recurring mine like in 2023, but we've been adding reserves every year for the past several years and we have a very strong optimism in our ability to continue that track record of adding to mine life at Kupol.

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · Grant McAdam of Economical Insurance. Please go ahead. Your line is open

And I would say, we actually increased our exploration budget for this year and we wouldn't obviously be doing that if we didn't see the potential to keep going.

Operator

Operator

Okay. Our next question comes from the line of Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank. Your line is open

Hi. Good morning everybody. Maybe for Paul T. just the studies that you're going to be doing on this project for the next few years, how much is that going to cost?

Paul Tomory

Analyst · Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank. Your line is open

So we've looked at a comprehensive program that includes a pre-feasibility study followed by feasibility study as well as a pretty substantial drilling program, so all-in the range of cost for that will be $30 million to $40 million over the next three years.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank. Your line is open

Okay. And then including that plus what you've paid for what is your internal rate of return on that at a $1200 gold price?

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank. Your line is open

We don't get into that. I mean we've got a whole range of sensitivities and I would say we're comfortably double digits.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank. Your line is open

Okay. We are a bit lower than that. But okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Mike Parkin

Analyst · Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Hi guys. Just following up on the acquisition. With regards to the permits, is there anything outstanding that you need? It seems like it's already got some in hand. And then on drilling, when is the earliest that you could expect to start putting drills to work there?

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Geoff, do you want to take the permit question?

Geoff Gold

Analyst · Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Yeah. Yes. We've got -- we're permitted well into the future on both exploration and trial mining.

Mike Parkin

Analyst · Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Okay.

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open

2037 is the….

Geoff Gold

Analyst · Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Is the exact date, yeah. Okay.

Paul Tomory

Analyst · Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open

And then with respect to the drilling program, we've -- as Paul indicated we've done 16 months of work on this asset, which included some confirmatory drill holes and we've been working over that time period with the seller and we continue to work with them planning the drill program. We anticipate having a substantial component in our exploration budget for 2020.

Mike Parkin

Analyst · Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Okay. And is it something -- doesn't look like a region that's restrictive on a seasonal basis. Is it kind of a year-round drilling area?

Paul Tomory

Analyst · Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open

There will be a seasonal component but it won't be as restrictive as what we currently experience at Kupol and Dvoinoye.

Mike Parkin

Analyst · Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Okay. And could you just remind us in terms of taxes like how the taxes will kind of flow for that project? You get a bit of a tax holiday initially?

Geoff Gold

Analyst · Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Yeah. Mike, it's Geoff Gold. Maybe I'll just explain that a little bit because it requires a little bit of context. Effectively, the project is a registered participant in something called the regional incentive plan and the regional incentive plans are part and parcel of an overall federal initiative to encourage investment and development in the Far East basically. And this plan provides for a range of reduced tax rates, including corporate property and extraction taxes for a period of up to 10 years. And based on the laws as we understand them today and some preliminary discussions with the authorities we believe these incentives will continue and we're in the process of confirming that with the authorities once we're in a position to discuss with them the more specific investment parameters of the project.

Mike Parkin

Analyst · Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Great. All right. That's it for me guys. Thanks so much and congrats on the solid quarter too.

Geoff Gold

Analyst · Mike Parkin of National Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. [Operator Instructions] I don't see any more questions in the queue. I'll turn the call back to the presenters for any closing remarks.

Paul Rollinson

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead. Your line is open

Great. Thank you, Suzanne. Thanks everyone for joining us today and we look forward to catching up with you in person in the coming weeks about our business and this really exciting opportunity. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.