Joe Liberatore
Analyst · Truist Securities. Your line is open
Thank you, Jay and thanks to all of you for your interest in Kforce. Our results for the third quarter and our expectations for fourth quarter performance continue to demonstrate a remarkable level of resilience and represent further confirmation of our strategic decision to focus our business to take advantage of the secular shift in technology demand. The higher end technology skill set that we support have demonstrated a greater ability to work effectively remotely during the pandemic. Our strategic journey has included shedding a number of non-strategic businesses and also limiting our exposure to the highly cyclical direct hire business. Overall, revenues grew 5.7% in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis and importantly, all of our lines of businesses grew sequential basis and exceeded our expectations. Let me give you a little bit of more color on each line of business. With respect to our technology flex business, flex revenues grew 1.7% sequentially and declined 4.2% year-over-year due to more difficult prior year comps. As noted on last quarter’s call, we began to see mild growth in billable headcount beginning in early June and this growth continued throughout the third quarter and through October, which we believe reflects clients’ growing confidence in restarting projects and seeking resources for key initiatives. Technology billable headcount is now 8% larger than the low point in early June. Job order flow and new assignment activity have continued to increase over the last several weeks. While job orders certainly remain at levels significantly lower than pre-pandemic, we are finding that the quality of job orders is higher as clients are executing against overall higher mix of critical technology initiatives. Average new assignment starts in the most recent 4 weeks is at 95% levels of a year ago and the average bill rate has increased 4.6% from Q3 last year. This is encouraging as we progress through the fourth quarter that still has an air of uncertainty around rising COVID cases, election outcomes and potential pent-up demand of paid time-off and furlough activity around the holidays. Our internal metrics and revenue trends continue to point to an improving environment. The majority of the assignment ends we experienced at the onset of the pandemic, as noted previously, were principally concentrated in the travel and leisure, retail and healthcare sectors. We experienced growth sequentially in the retail space though travel leisure and healthcare experienced some weakness sequentially and remained well below pre-pandemic levels. Financial services, insurance and telecom have shown relative resilience throughout the pandemic and grew on a sequential basis. We continue to experience the acceleration of technology-driven, mission-critical, strategic consumer direct initiatives within world class companies. We have matured our capability to source and deliver diverse skill sets of qualified talent, at scale further supported by the backdrop of the evolving trend breaking down geographic constraints to source top talent for these large users that have priority needs for large-scale talent across the U.S. We are well-positioned to further evolve our offerings to meet these clients’ changing needs, through our recruiting core competency and inclusive of expanding demand for managed services and solutions that have historically been provided by large solution providers. Due to our longevity in the market and reputation for delivering quality services, we are seeing increasing demand supporting clients’ needs in the managed teams, services and solutions areas. Revenues in this offering are accelerating at a significantly greater pace than our overall technology business. We feel extremely confident in the positioning of our technology business and the ability to expand our market share. We expect the level of fourth quarter sequential growth in tech to accelerate slightly from third quarter levels on a billing day basis. Though current expectations for U.S. GDP to decline by approximately 4% for full year, we expect full year flexible revenues in our technology business to decline between only 1% and 2%. Our performance compares extremely favorably to the overall economic trends and it is notably better than that experienced during the 2008-2009 recession, which further supports the secular story. Moving to our FA business, flex revenues were up nearly 52% year-over-year in the third quarter, primarily as a result of the contribution of approximately $51 million of revenue from our support of government-sponsored initiatives tied to the COVID-19 pandemic. These opportunities have provided an important level of support to our core FA Flex business as we have navigated the revenue reductions brought on by the crisis with many of the roles within FA Flex not being as remote friendly. Towards the end of the third quarter, we began to see declines in these lower levels predominantly customer service and call center roles, as government-sponsored customer needs are declining with improvement in the economic and employment trends. This revenue stream remains fluid as we expect that revenues related to the COVID initiatives could be in the range of $25 million to $30 million in the fourth quarter. The expected run-rate of the revenues supporting the COVID initiatives as we exit the fourth quarter of 2020 suggests we could see up to $10 million in revenue in the first quarter of 2021. Our Core FA Flex business grew slightly on a sequential basis and declined approximately 25% year-over-year, exceeding our expectations. As we have discussed, we felt the negative impacts from the current crisis earlier and more deeply in this line of business. Since the middle of June, we have experienced modest growth in our billable headcount throughout the third quarter and into October. Given our progress in growing this business from its low point late in the second quarter, we expect that we could see sequential growth in the fourth quarter in the mid to high single-digits on a billing day basis. When combined with the midpoint of the range of our COVID revenue, total FA Flex maybe down approximately 18% sequentially and up nearly 21% year-over-year. Direct Hire revenues in the third quarter increased approximately 32% sequentially and declined nearly 27% year-over-year. Direct Hire revenues are inherently less predictable and as in most recessionary cycles, this service offering tends to be most impacted by economic uncertainty. We have also by design reduced our concentration of Direct Hire revenues from 22.5% of revenues at the peak of the economic expansion prior to the dot.com bust to approximately 2% of revenues in the third quarter. While Direct Hire remains an important part of our service offerings to clients over the long-term, we have not allocated significant investment here in part due to the sensitivity of the revenue stream to economic cycles and the disruptive technologies that have continued to evolve in this space. Additionally, we are able to provide Direct Hire capability in our technology practice through the same channels utilized in our technology flex business as the skill sets we service are similar. We expect Direct Hire revenues in the fourth quarter maybe stable to slightly down versus Q3 levels given the traditional seasonality in this business. We have continued to invest in the strategic initiatives to better position our firm for the long term. Several years ago, we made a strategic decision to leverage Microsoft’s suite of product offerings for our cloud-based technologies. This includes our customer relationship management system, which we implemented in 2017 and our talent relationship management system, which we are in the process of implementing, with the last phase slated for early 2021. This combined with the seamless integration of these technologies with other Microsoft Office 365 products, such as Outlook, Teams and Power BI has provided us significant efficiencies with a fully integrated platform, especially as we shifted our associates to work-remote environment in mid-March. Our team has also significantly advanced efforts in the evolution of a fully integrated hybrid operating model to enhance the online experience of our internal team and with our clients, candidates and consultants in part leveraging our KFORCEconnect from a sourcing, referral and engagement standpoint in a boundary-less environment. These and many other efforts underway will position us with maximum flexibility regardless of what lies ahead during these uncertain times. We are continuing to manage the productivity of our associates as we typically do, with an elevated focus on retaining our most productive associates, so we are best positioned to take advantage of the market subsequent to the crisis. We, by design, experienced decline in overall performer headcount in the third quarter due to the natural performance managed attrition. Though as we continue to experience improving trends, particularly in our technology business and gain confidence in strong tech market in 2021, we have begun efforts to increase associate levels at a measured pace to assist in sustaining our above-market growth rates. These actions will add to the existing capacity of our current associates. Overall, capacity should continue to be positively impacted by the improving productivity generated by our technology investments and greater enablement of our current communication tools and processes that have been so successful for us during the transition to remote work. Our experience has been that recessionary cycles result in competitive advantage for the strongest companies and we believe we are ideally situated to take advantage of the market as conditions continue to recover in what we believe could be an accelerated digitally led expansion. We have retained our best people, taken cost out of the system and refined a more leverageable model, which will result in positive leverage as growth accelerates as we re-imagine the future that lies ahead. I greatly appreciate the trust of our clients, consultants and candidates have placed in Kforce and I couldn’t be prouder of our teams’ attitude and efforts executing a fully remote capacity, while managing through these remarkable times. I will now turn the call over to Dave Kelly, Kforce’s Chief Financial Officer. Dave?