Dominic J. Caruso
Analyst · Wells Fargo
Thank you, Bill and Joaquin, and good morning everyone. As you just heard, our Pharmaceutical business is well positioned for continued above-industry growth as we made good progress against the pipeline expectations we communicated at our 2015 Pharmaceutical Business Review. With great leaders like Joaquin and Bill, our strong end market performance driven by excellent commercial capabilities and our robust R&D pipeline, you can see why we remain confident that our Pharmaceuticals business will continue to be a major driver of growth moving forward. I will now turn our discussion back to the quarter. We're pleased with our overall results. As you know, we had a strong start to the year, and as a result, last quarter we increased our sales and earnings guidance. I'm happy to say we're tracking with those higher expectations while continuing to invest in our business. As you've heard, our Pharmaceutical business delivered strong results this quarter with underlying operational growth of 10.7%. Let me now provide some comments on our other businesses. In our Consumer business, we continued to gain share this quarter. However, as reported by Nielsen, the industry saw slowdown in many markets with category growth rates in 2016 about half of the category growth rates we saw in Q3 of 2015. As Joe noted, our sales growth for the quarter was also impacted by lower trade inventory levels. These lower levels are the result of inventory builds in Q3 2015, as we discussed at that time, due to re-launches of certain products as well as inventory reduction programs being implemented at some of the larger retailers this past quarter. When excluding the impact of acquisitions and divestitures and the impact of the devaluation that occurred in Venezuela last year, and this overall impact with trade inventory reductions, overall Consumer growth was nearly 4%. Based on increasing share trends of our brands, we expect trade levels to align with consumption going forward. In Medical Devices, consistent with some recent analyst reports about the market, we believe the industry experienced lower hospital admissions and procedure rates during the mid summer months. Late in the quarter, several reports showed higher levels of activity, and in fact the data that we recently saw published for September looked encouraging. Additionally, we are very pleased to see our priority platforms continue to deliver robust growth of nearly 9%, with some at double-digits as Joe mentioned earlier. Overall, Hospital Medical Devices operational growth, excluding acquisitions and divestitures, was approximately 4% this quarter. In the Consumer Medical Device businesses, we saw continued price erosion in our Diabetes business. However, in our Vision Care business, we saw good operational growth of 5.5%. So in summary, as we previously discussed, in 2015 our underlying operational growth, which excludes the impact of acquisitions and divestitures as well as hepatitis C sales and the few extra shipping days that we saw in 2015, was about 5.5%. On this same basis, we continued to accelerate our growth and we delivered strong underlying operational sales growth of approximately 5.9% for the third quarter of 2016. Our sales were above analyst estimates, as were earnings, due to significantly higher pre-tax operating margins. As you may remember, our guidance from January included a more than 200 basis point increase in our 2016 pre-tax operating margin on an adjusted basis. We have attained that level year-to-date while continuing to invest in our business and we remain comfortable with that forecast for the full year as we continue to execute on the restructuring activities in our Medical Devices businesses while also investing in growth. As you know, in September we announced a definitive agreement to acquire Abbott Medical Optics. We expect this transaction to close in Q1 of 2017. So, for 2016, the transaction is expected to have no impact to our adjusted earnings and is not expected to impact our guidance. For 2017, again assuming a Q1 close, the transaction is expected to be positive to sales growth and immediately accretive to adjusted EPS. We are excited about Abbott Medical Optics' strong and differentiated surgical ophthalmic portfolio, particularly in cataract surgery. That, coupled with our world-leading ACUVUE contact lens business, will help us become a broad-based leader in vision care. Now, I'll take the next few minutes to highlight some key points regarding our results for the quarter, and then I'll provide some updates to our guidance for you to consider in refining your models for the remainder of 2016. So I'll now turn to our consolidated statement of earnings for the third quarter of 2016. Our operational sales growth this quarter was 4.3%, and when we exclude the impact of acquisitions, divestitures, the impact of hep C sales and the overall impact the Venezuela had, it was strong at more than 6%. If you direct your attention to the boxed section of the schedule, you will see we have provided our earnings adjusted to exclude intangible amortization expense and special items. As referenced in the table of non-GAAP measures, the 2016 third quarter net earnings were adjusted to exclude intangible amortization expense and special items of approximately $400 million on an after-tax basis, which consisted primarily of the intangible amortization expense of about $250 million and the anticipated special charges as we continue to execute on the Medical Devices restructuring plan. Our adjusted earnings per share is therefore $1.68, which exceeded the mean of the analyst estimates as published by first call. This is an increase in adjusted EPS of 12.8% versus the prior year. Adjusted EPS on a constant currency basis was the same, as the impact of currency was flat year-over-year. Now let's take a few moments to talk about other items of the statement of earnings. Cost of goods sold increased by 30 basis points, mostly due to unfavorable transaction currency impacts, partly offset by a favorable mix and manufacturing efficiencies. Selling, marketing and administrative expenses were 26.8% of sales or 290 basis points lower, as compared to the third quarter of 2015, due to overall good cost management. Our investment in research and development as a percent of sales was 12.2%, lower by 40 basis points, due primarily to lower milestone payments, partly offset by increased project spending as we advance our promising product pipeline. Our pre-tax operating margin, when excluding special items and intangible amortization expense, was 32% or 310 basis points higher than the third quarter of the prior year. As a reminder, our pre-tax operating margin is defined as gross profit, less selling, marketing and administrative expenses, and less R&D expenses. As we anticipated, we are seeing improvement as we progress throughout the year, and through nine months we have achieved a 220 basis point improvement in this measure of profitability, consistent with the expectations we communicated to you throughout the year. Interest expense, net of interest income, was similar to last year. Other income and expense was a net gain of approximately $50 million in the quarter, compared to a net expense of approximately $400 million in the same period last year. Excluding the special items that are reflected in this line, other income and expense was a net gain of approximately $200 million, compared to a net gain of approximately $400 million in the prior year period which included a higher level of gains from divestitures. Excluding special items, the effective tax rate in the quarter was 19.7%, compared to 20% in the same period last year. This year's effective rate reflects the R&D tax credit which was passed by Congress late last year and it reflects the current mix of our businesses and the impact from a new accounting standard relating to the tax benefit on share-based compensation which we discussed in our call in July. Turning to the next slide, I will now review adjusted income before tax by segment. In the third quarter of 2016, our adjusted income before tax margin for the enterprise improved by 220 basis points versus the third quarter of 2015. You will note a significant improvement in margins for the Medical Devices and Pharmaceutical businesses. Last year, our Consumer business benefited from a gain on the sale of SPLENDA and you're seeing that reflected in their lower margin this quarter, although still at very healthy rates. As you can see on the next slide, on a year-to-date basis, we are pleased to see solid improvement in our Consumer margin and we remain confident it will show an improved adjusted income before tax margin for full-year 2016 as compared to 2015. Overall, we expect adjusted income before tax margins for the enterprise to show an improvement over the prior year for all of 2016 as our increase in pre-tax operating profit margin which I noted earlier more than offsets the lower level of divestiture gains in 2016 as compared to 2015. Now, I'd like to provide some guidance for you to consider as you refine your models for 2016. I'd like to start with some of the items that we know you find difficult to forecast. Let's start with cash and interest income and expense. At the end of the quarter, we had approximately $13 billion of net cash, which consist of approximately $40 billion of cash and marketable securities and approximately $27 billion of debt. Through the end of the third quarter, we completed nearly 60% of our $10 billion share repurchase program and we expect to complete approximately 75% of the program by the end of this year. For purposes of your models and assuming no major acquisitions or other major uses of cash, I suggest you consider modeling net interest expense of between $400 million and $450 million. This is a slight tightening of the range. Regarding other income and expense, as a reminder, this is the account where we record royalty income as well as gains or losses arising from such items as litigation, investments by our Development Corp., divestitures, asset sales and write-offs. We would be comfortable with your models for 2016 reflecting net other income and expense, excluding special items, as a gain ranging from approximately $750 million to $850 million, a lower range than our previous guidance related to the underlying activity. This impact will be offset by a lower tax rate. And now for taxes, we're very comfortable with your models reflecting an effective tax rate for 2016, excluding special items, of approximately 18% to 18.5%, which is lower than our previous guidance primarily due to a higher level of income in lower tax jurisdictions. Now turning to sales and earnings, our sales and earnings guidance for 2016 takes into account several assumptions and key factors that I would like to highlight. Our sales range for 2016 continues to remain the same, whether or not a biosimilar REMICADE launches this year in the U.S. Additionally, we do not anticipate biosimilar or generic competition this year for PROCRIT, ZYTIGA, RISPERDAL CONSTA and INVEGA SUSTENNA, but as expected, there are generic entrants for INVEGA and ORTHO TRI-CYCLEN Lo. As we've done for several years, our guidance will be first based on a constant currency basis, reflecting our results from operations. This is the way we manage our business and we believe this provides a good understanding of the underlying performance of our business. We will also provide an estimate of our sales and adjusted EPS results for 2016 with the impact that current exchange rates could have on the translation of those results. We continue to be comfortable with the sales guidance we provided last quarter, reflecting an operational sales increase on a constant currency basis of between 3% and 4% for the year. This would result in sales for 2016 on a constant currency basis of between approximately $72.2 billion to $72.9 billion. Additionally, by way of comparison to how we described our sales results in 2015, our operational sales growth for 2016, excluding the impact of all acquisition, divestitures and hepatitis C, would be approximately 6%, a higher level of growth than we saw last year even after adjusting for the shipping days in 2015 which we mentioned earlier. Although we are not predicting the impact of currency movements, using the euro as of last week at $1.11, the negative impact of foreign currency translation would be approximately 1% on sales growth. This is consistent with our previous guidance as major currencies had not significantly fluctuated since our last update. So, after impacts of currency, we would expect reported sales to reflect the change in the range of positive 2% to 3% or a total expected level of reported sales of approximately $71.5 billion to $72.2 billion, consistent with our previous guidance. And now turning to earnings, as a reminder, we expect transaction currency impacts to be negative to our gross margin by approximately 60 to 80 basis points in 2016 as compared to 2015. We would be comfortable with adjusted operational EPS guidance in the range of between $6.71 and $6.76 per share on a constant currency basis, reflecting an operational or constant currency growth rate of 8% to 9%, and this is a narrowing of the range. If currency exchange rates for all of 2016 were to remain where they were as of last week, the negative impact to EPS would be approximately $0.03, consistent with our previous guidance. Therefore, we would be comfortable with our reported adjusted EPS ranging from $6.68 to $6.73 per share, which again is a narrowing of our previous guidance with a midpoint that is $0.03 higher than our previous guidance range. Finally, just a reminder of some dynamics you will see in our fourth quarter results this year in comparison to the fourth quarter of 2015. In 2015, we had additional shipping days based on when our year-end closed, and that contributed approximately 4 points of sales growth in the fourth quarter of last year. Additionally, in the fourth quarter last year, we closed on the Cordis divestiture, and based on our latest guidance for 2016, we will have significantly lower level of other income from divestitures as compared to the prior year. In closing, we are very pleased with our performance so far this year and we remain confident and optimistic about our future full-year growth for 2016. Specifically, we are expecting operational sales growth of 3% to 4% and underlying operational sales growth of 6%, a higher level than we experienced last year on a comparable basis. Our adjusted pre-tax operating margin improvements are on track to meet the expectations we laid out in our guidance of more than a 200 basis point improvement over the prior year. We narrowed our guidance and increased the midpoint for adjusted operational EPS growth, which remained strong in the range of $6.71 to $6.76 per share, with a growth rate of 8% to 9%, and we are very well-positioned to seize the opportunities in our strong pipelines to continue fueling our future growth. Now I'd like to turn things back to Joe for the Q&A portion of the call. Joe?