Karen Brennan
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thank you, Christian. Before I begin, I remind everyone that variances are against the prior year period and local currency unless otherwise noted. Our fee revenue for the quarter grew 4% over a record third quarter 2021 and despite a 24% decline in our investment sales, debt and equity advisory fee revenue in the month of September. This resiliency was a result of the strength in other business lines, particularly in our work dynamics business, which grew 14% as well as double digit growth in our property management and valuation advisory business lines and over 20% organic growth in JLL Technologies. Adjusted EBITDA was $276 million, a decrease of 19% from the prior quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA margin declined approximately 390 basis points from the third quarter of 2021, a period which generated a margin well above our pre-pandemic levels, and was not reflective of a fully normalized cost basis. The margin decline was driven by lower capital markets revenue, typically our second highest margin segment, as well as investments in our people, product and growth initiatives over the past year. Incremental T&E and marketing expenses, and lower equity earnings also contributed to the margin decline. It's important to note that our operating platform remains resilient. And we have a flexible cost structure. Excluding passthrough costs approximately 55% of our 2021 compensation and benefits and operating and administrative expenses were variable. In the context of a more challenging macroeconomic backdrop, we are focusing on reducing costs, while also being selective about investments and growth initiatives. Well, this may cause our near-term profitability to be somewhat more volatile. We have a track record of healthy margin expansion over the long term. Moving to a detailed review of operating performance beginning with markets advisory, leasing fee revenue grew 3% on top of a 75% growth rate in the prior year quarter. So the pace of growth decelerated as the quarter progressed. With macro conditions varying across region, leasing fee revenue growth was most notable in Asia Pacific, up 17% and EMEA up 14%. While the Americas grew 1% on top of a very strong quarter a year ago. The office sector grew across region, it was offset by declines in the industrial and retail sectors. Our third quarter office sector fee revenue growth outpaced the global office market volume by approximately 200 basis points and the industrial sector fee revenue growth declined 12% as anticipated given a tight supply and significant growth seen over the past several years, as well as a decrease in global industrial market activity from a year ago. While our overall average transaction size increased, deal volume materially decreases. Property management fee revenue growth accelerated to 12% compared with 10% in the second quarter, in part due to inorganic contributions from a 2021 strategic joint venture in the US. The leasing market overall continues to moderate, though varies by asset class and geography. For instance, our growth US leasing pipeline is down slightly from a year ago, driven by contractions in the office sector, partially offset by growth in the industrial and retail sectors. The growth leasing pipeline has also done slightly in EMEA, so it is up marginally in Asia Pacific. We continue to see a flight to quality as occupiers shift to new and/or Class A space with the amenities and sustainability profile needed to attract employees back to the office. Market advisory adjusted EBITDA margin declined 200 basis points from a year ago to 15.8%, primarily due to the impact of higher commission rate tiers being met more broadly. Investment in talent to meet growth demand over the past year and incremental T&E and marketing expenses. Shifting now to our Capital Markets segment. The elongated deal cycles that Christian described were a key factor and the 5% decline in segment fee revenue. The growth and valuations and a more annuity like loan servicing businesses provided a partial offset. And note the decline is off a third quarter 2021 growth rate of 85%. The strength and breadth of our global capital markets platform is evident as the decline in JLL’s global investment sales fee revenue of 7% in the third quarter compares favorably to the 18% decline in global deal volume according to JLL research. Nearly all major asset classes exhibited decline, most notably in the Americas and EMEA residential sectors. The hotel sector continuing to recover, exhibiting strong year-over-year growth. Fee revenue from US investment advisory sales declined about 11% which compares favorably to the 21% decline in market volume in the Americas according to JLL research. Notably, Asia Pacific investment sales, debt and equity advisory fee revenue grew 5% driven by strength of the hotel sector, EMEA investment sales, debt and equity advisory declined 1% with strengthen in the UK, and much of continental Europe offset by softness in Germany and France. Valuation advisory fee revenue, which is more resilient than investment sales, debt and equity advisory grew 12%. Growth was broad based across regions and sectors and in part due to M&A in the US. Despite headwinds from a decline in prepayment fees, our loan servicing fee revenue grew 5% driven by increases in our servicing portfolio, particularly from Fannie Mae originations. As we look to the rest of this year, the global capital markets investment sales, debt and equity advisory pipeline is down mid-single digit compared with this time last year, most notably in the Americas and EMEA. We saw notable deceleration in September compared to July and August. Considering the factors Christian described and a tougher growth comparison to a year ago, we expect the decrease in fourth quarter fee revenue in capital markets to be more pronounced than in the third quarter. Capital Markets adjusted EBITDA margin declined 740 basis points from a year ago to 14.3% on lower fee revenue, the impact of net changes and incentive compensation structure and incremental T&E and marketing expenses The change in our compensation mix to more commissions from cash bonus along with the strength in capital markets activity earlier in the year led to higher commission expense and earlier cash out flows than in prior years. Moving next to Work Dynamics, fee revenues grew 14% with double digit growth across our annuity and transactional revenue streams within the segment. Continued easing of pandemic restrictions and momentum in the return-to-work trends across all regions drove 16% growth in project management, client wins and global contract expansion, particularly in the Americas propelled 19% fee revenue growth in workplace management. The work dynamics’ adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 190 basis points from a year ago, due to both revenue growth and cost management strategies enacted over the past year. Moving to JLL Technologies, fee revenue inclusive of M&A accelerated to 54% from 48% in the prior quarter, organic growth of 28% was driven largely by enterprise clients, which compared with 22% in the prior quarter. As a reminder, JLL Technologies also influence its fee revenue across JLL through investments specific to differentiating our services. Despite materially lower equity earnings than a year earlier, and continued investment in people and our platform. The JLL Technologies adjusted EBITDA margin improved on a higher revenue, like all our segments, long term profitable growth of JLL Technologies as a primary focus. Turning to LaSalle, the past 12 months of capital deployment and valuation markups drove a 9% increase in assets under management and translated to 11% advisory fee revenue growth, mostly within our core open end funds. Valuation declines stemming from the macro-operating environment are likely to be a headwind to near term advisory fee revenue growth and incentive fee generation. Equity earnings were about $10 million lower than the prior year, in part due to an approximate $1.5 million adverse swing in the fair value marks were publicly traded REIT in Japan, as well as the absence of valuation increases on the remainder of our co investment portfolio that benefitted the prior year period. The increase in advisory fee revenue was more than offset by the lower equity earnings, lower incentive fees and expenses related to the loss of a client mandate in the UK, resulting in a decline in our sales adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter. I also highlight a material new global investment mandate client win with an investment horizon, and equity deployment ramp over the next few years. Shifting now to an update on our balance sheet and capital allocation, as of September 30, our net leverage of 1.1x is just above the midpoint of our target leverage range and up from 0.4x a year earlier, primarily due to share repurchases, incremental investments in our business, M&A, and lower profitability. Our liquidity totaled $2.1 billion at the end of the third quarter. During the quarter, we expanded our credit facility by $600 million to $3.35 billion. On September 30, we used our lower cost credit facility and redeemed our 4.4% fixed rate, $275 million of senior notes that were set to mature this month. Our third quarter share repurchases brought our year-to-date cash return to shareholders to approximately $600 million and drove a 6% reduction in our quarter end share count from a year earlier. Given a significant cash flow already returned this year, and the uncertainty looking into 2023, we have temporarily paused our repurchase activity. Returning capital to shareholders is a critical component of our holistic approach to long-term capital allocation. And we will continue to prioritize this alongside investments in our business for future growth. Approximately $1.2 billion remained on our share repurchase authorization as of September 30. I will now address free cash flow. We generated $88 million of free cash flow in the quarter, reducing the year-to-date outflow to $538 million, materially below the same period a year ago. The primary factors behind the lower free cash flow include, one, materially higher bonus payout tied to 2021 performance. Two, a shift to more commission-based compensation from bonus driving earlier payments this year compared to past years. Three, an abnormal timing mismatch of reimbursable payables and receivables and four, lower profitability in part due to more normalized cost base. We note that a number of these factors are timing related, and that we remain focused on cash flow conversion to optimize their capital structure and maintain flexibility in a more challenging macroeconomic environment. Entering the fourth quarter, we have generated $909 million of adjusted EBITDA year-to-date and a 14.8% margin. The swift changes in the economic sentiment caused largely by the sharp increase in interest rates prior to our seasonally strongest quarter is expected to materially impact our full year growth and profitability expectations despite our variable cost base. So the environment is fluid and much will depend on the pace of activity in our leasing and investment sales, debt and equity advisory business lines for the remainder of the year. We now anticipate our full year 2022 adjusted EBITDA margin to be below the 16% to 19% range we had originally targeted for the year. We are taking actions to adjust both our existing cost base, as well as prioritization of investments in the business. While some costs like T&E can be flushed quickly, it takes time for other cost savings actions to be realized. We remain focused on generating margin expansion across our business lines, and see further opportunity to do this in a normalized macroeconomic environment. The evolution of our operating model to global business lines provided increased transparency into our cost structure, allowing us to capture opportunities to drive productivity and continue to improve our operational efficiency profile. As the intensity of macroeconomic headwinds is expected to increase, we will continue to calibrate our cost structure, balancing steps necessary to respond to the near-term challenges with opportunities to further strengthen our platform during the downturn. Our focus remains on cementing the resiliency of our diversified business and driving long-term profitable growth and value creation. Christian back to you.