Earnings Labs

James Hardie Industries plc (JHX)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Mon, May 20, 2019

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Transcript

Jack Truong

Operator

Well, good morning, everyone. Welcome to our Q4 fiscal year '19 earnings call. Thank you for joining us today. I'm Jack Truong, CEO of James Hardie group, and with me here today is Matt Marsh, group CFO. And both of us will share with you the results for fiscal year '19, and then we're going to share with you where we're going with our strategy and the status of our strategy. So firstly, on the agenda, we'll have -- so I would briefly go over the operating review for the company in the fiscal year '19, and Matt will come up and share with you in more detail on the financial results of the quarter and also the year. And I'll get back up and really share with you the progress of the 3-year strategy that we shared with you 3 months ago, where we are relative to the execution along that 3-year horizon. And then we'll end with the Q&A. Now let's move on to our group results of fiscal year '19. I'm very pleased to announce that this is the first year that we, as a group at James Hardie, crossed the $2.5 billion mark. And what is even more significant is that we now operate in 3 major regions around the world: North America, Asia Pacific and Europe. And the discussion today will be a lot more in depth about those 3 -- the results in the 3 regions for the whole fiscal year '19 because this is the first year that Fermacell results are in, in our results for that whole fiscal year. So if you look at our year in review, North America delivered improved PDG, although it's below expectations. So if you look at our PDG for fiscal year '19, we are north of…

Matthew Marsh

Analyst

Thanks, Jack. All right. Good morning, everybody. Okay. So I'll take everybody through the financials for FY '19 and the fourth quarter. Overall, a good financial performance last year, especially considering the significant inflationary environment that we were in on most of our raw materials and freight cost. As Jack already talked about, our North America business continued to see momentum on the exterior side on -- growing above our addressable market. Asia Pacific had a really good year on both market share gains and category share across the Asia Pacific business. Overall, we are very pleased with the Fermacell result in year 1 with the pro forma results that we -- Jack shared with you earlier and I'll take you through in a bit, and the integration very much remains on -- right on track. So we're very pleased with where we are a year into that business. And then we've fully exited the Windows business, which I'll take everybody through where we stand on those transactions. For the year, we are reporting adjusted NOPAT of $300.5 million. We had capital expenditures last year of $301 million, primarily consisting of the capacity projects that everyone's already aware of. But I'll give everybody an update on those later in the presentation. We declared a second half dividend of $0.26 per share. We had talked throughout the year about being in the lower end of our 50% to 70% dividend payout range for as long as we're above our leverage target -- or above our leverage target, I think as many of you know, as a result of the Fermacell acquisition. So we've correspondingly come down a bit in the range. The range hasn't changed at all. It remains 50% to 70% of adjusted NOPAT. We're just down in that range…

Jack Truong

Operator

Thanks, Matt. Okay. So let's go to the next slide. So we confirm that our long-term value creation for James Hardie group is about north -- in North America, 35/90 is our north star. And it's really about driving growth above market with strong returns, 20% to 25% EBIT margin, and that's our north star. Europe is really about creating the EUR 1 billion business with a good Hardie-like return for the long term. And for APAC, it's really about making a good business to continue to be better, and that's about delivering growth above market with strong returns and a 20% to 25% EBIT margin. So with that being the strategy, we're really about -- that's about the objective. So what we really want to talk about now is what is our key strategic priorities that, as a company globally, that we need to focus on to ensure that we fulfill that long-term objective. And so this is the 3-year strategic priority that we shared with you 3 months ago, and I'd just like to give you an update on where we are. And so in North America, it's all about accelerate exterior growth. It's really all about making sure that our marketing and sales team drive the penetration of the total exterior solution that James Hardie has in the marketplace. And that is about driving the panels, planks, the HardiePanels, HardiePlanks, HardieTrim, HardieSoffit, to really provide that total exterior solution that allow the homeowners to have the low maintenance and the durable with the -- to really -- flexibility in designs. And I'm going to show you a little bit later on how we bring that to life through the Win With Color program to drive category share growth. And second in North America, it's really about how…

Peter Steyn

Analyst

Peter Steyn from Macquarie. Just a quick hone in on the commercial transformation aspects, and particularly your intent to be easier to do business with. We've obviously seen a couple of movements in the channel just more recently. But could you give us a bit of a sense of where you're going in terms of -- or how you're going in terms of traction with further important channel partners as well as the internal realignment of some of your sales plans and intent and people?

Jack Truong

Operator

Yes. Peter, that's a very good question. Traditionally, James Hardie in North America, we have been focusing so much onto the pulp side which is at the builders and contractors' level. And we haven't really made the strong effort to really engage with our channel partners in terms of how do we make it more easy for them to receive our products, to have the right pricing with us and how to be able to navigate within James Hardie company in the way that we get the right information for them to run their business with our products a lot more simple. And that would center around the supply chain synchronization between us and our channel partners to be able to deliver our product to the markets in the right way. So it is an area that's a key foundational focus for us. That's part of the commercial transformation is really about adding that capability, about what we call the key account management. And that is not just about the job of the salesperson. The salesperson is the quarterback or the coordinator of James Hardie to the account. To where we would have the mirror image relationship between the top management around the channel -- big channel partners with us with same side from myself and then with Sean Gadd and then our new Head of Sales all the way down. And then across to different functions from sales, market and products, supply chain and finance. So that is the structure that we're building right now to allow us to serve our channel partners a lot better and in a more significant way so that allow us to continue to penetrate the markets.

Peter Steyn

Analyst

And then perhaps just a quick follow-up on that. The disruptive aspects of that reorganization, has that been worse or better than what have you expected.

Jack Truong

Operator

I think the -- I would say that the level of engagements of us with our channel partners in North America has a lot of room to improve. I think it's more than I had expected and so that's why it's important for us to really put a strong focus on the key account management and that is a very, very -- and that is -- it takes a different skill set and it takes a different focus to make sure that we manage that part correctly, while we got to make sure that we continue to invest and deploy the right skill set of the market development folks and the business development folks to go and create new demand for fiber cement to the conversion against vinyl and wood and so on. So those are the 2 separate focus, but then management have to align those -- the demand and then the channel management together to ensure that we have -- create the sales from the demand that we just created.

Peter Steyn

Analyst

And sorry, if I may, just a quick question then on lean. You've indicated that you've had throughput yield improvements and had available hours up, yet cost per square foot still stable. Presumably, that's largely a consequence of pulp prices, I assume. But can you give us a bit of a sense of what's happened at Waxahachie, Pulaski and Peru in terms of unit costs? Perhaps at a more granular level, have you actually seen reductions there?

Jack Truong

Operator

Yes. So in the plant, particularly in Waxahachie and Pulaski, we actually have a really quite a step change in improvement in our unit cost in a very substantial way. In Peru, it's improved but it's not improved at the level that -- compared to the other 2 plants yet.

Andrew Scott

Analyst

It's Andrew Scott from Morgan Stanley. Probably one for Matt. But Jack, happy for you to chime in. Just your guidance for particularly North America, top half of the 20% to 25% range. I note that in the comments there, one of the assumptions is increasing input cost, input cost inflation. As you mentioned freight's come away. It looks like pulp's turned the corner now. Is that just conservatism at the start of the year? Or is there something that you're seeing that we're not aware of that's going to suggest that we'll still going to see input cost inflation throughout the year?

Jack Truong

Operator

Yes. And I mean -- that's one component -- is that it's really more about you can see that we have -- we launched in the Win With Color program and you see that we are -- we also launched in our commercial transformation, which is going to take some of the investment to make sure that we are able to drive traction to drive -- to really create the sustainable PDG. So that's just why we are -- at this point is a -- it's the savings that will allow us -- afford us the capability to drive more sales growth or more PDG growth. Go ahead, Matt.

Matthew Marsh

Analyst

Yes. On input cost, before I get to your question, Andrew, I think I had mistakenly said that pulp was up 12% for the year. Just as a correction, it was up 12% in the quarter. For the year, pulp was up closer to 19% for the year. So sorry for that. The -- on your question, pulp's definitely look like it's coming up but it's still pretty elevated. So on a year-on-year basis, it's still up. If you looked at April to April pricing as an example or May year-to-date pricing compared to May year-to-date pricing a year ago, it's still up. It's off of where it was a year ago -- or sorry, it's off of where it was last month. It's off of where it was at the peak, but it's still pretty elevated. But pulp's still trading on the RISI index at like 1,300, which is still very, very elevated. So that result will sort of continue. There is an assumption that we will see a trend down in pulp. But I think I said that in February and I think I said that in November, too. So I think I'm fairly cautious on the pulp market's ability to kind of forecast itself. We are seeing good trends, I'd say, over the last 6 to 12 weeks, but it's still pretty elevated. So that comment is much more around does the trend follow or does it stabilize at a really high level? And that would obviously have an effect where we would be in that upper end of the range. But even when taking that into account, we still feel pretty comfortable saying that we'll be in top half of our range for next year.

Andrew Scott

Analyst

If I extend that to Australia, and I assume it's the same assumption, where are we going to get that -- the help in margin there will be coming right from in this quarter, at least, the bang on the bottom end of the range to the top half of the range there because it is a meaningful step up.

Matthew Marsh

Analyst

Yes. On a year-on-year basis, New Zealand manufacturing, no doubt, go from being a headwind in the result to a contributor to the result. That will be significant. Keep in mind, we did have in the second quarter of our fiscal '19 that one-off item in the Philippines. You take those 2 items and you go -- that has a pretty significant impact just with those 2 items. And then we're not forecasting anything on foreign currency, obviously. And we've got the same assumption for pulp so -- that we have in North America.

Andrew Scott

Analyst

And just, Matt, as we sit here today, obviously we've had Fermacell integration to roll through, we've had the business closures. As we look into '20, are there any items you expect to take effectively below the line? And in particular, I assume you'll expense the strategic costs -- cost of delivering the strategic initiatives, et cetera. Is there anything we need to think about going forward?

Matthew Marsh

Analyst

Nothing really below the line. We've got some additional Fermacell integration costs to go. I think those will be in the $5 million to $7 million range for this year. It's primarily associated with completing the stand up of the back office. As you remember, Fermacell was owned by a private equity company and we've had it completely stand up both the personnel and the IT infrastructure associated with the back office functions. And so we're probably about 2/3 of the way done with that, and there's some additional costs in fiscal '20 associated with that. Nothing else -- I mean, we think we're through the product line review and the portfolio review, so we're not expecting additional product line discontinuation cost. I'm not expecting other items below the line in fiscal '21 -- in fiscal '20.

Simon Thackray

Analyst

Simon Thackray from CLSA. Jack, can we just start with the interiors market, down 10 in the quarter? That looks like it's still moving away from you. Can we talk about the drivers of that. I mean, we probably all gone through and seen the luxury vinyl tile taking some share, et cetera. How much of this problem is a Hardie problem versus a market problem?

Jack Truong

Operator

Good question, Simon. In our interior business, I would say 80% of our market access is through the retail channel and so really about the fundamental in retail is really about, position, placement, pricing and promotion and product. And so essentially, let's talk about product. We have essentially 2 SKUs in the channel for a long time. And for us to grow in this category, we got to have critical mass. And so really it's important for us to really come out with new products and then continue to refresh our category to make us as a destination within the retail channel for the contractors. So that's the first and last in one area that -- for innovation that we're going to focus intensely on. Second is more of the short term and that is about placement. We -- our product today, with the 2 SKUs that we have, we're not in full in the building material section of those 2 key retailers. We're primarily in the tile section where you have less traffic. And then you have -- you don't have the traffic of those heavy user contractor walk through there, so we have to fix that placement. And then third is really about the positioning. It's really about to make sure that our products are well positioned in the store so that the contractors -- that we can attract new contractors and be able to use our product in different applications. So in summary, it's really about, I would say, 75% that is really within us, within our control, and 25% is really about the markets. And of course, when you have a new product like -- new category like LVT coming in, it's really incumbent for a manufacturer to say, "Okay, if that's the case, what are we going to do differently to make sure that we can continue to grow?" So those are the 3 key strategic actions that our teams are working on right now and -- so that we can fundamentally improve the position for the interior business.

Simon Thackray

Analyst

And you've launched a new product well, at least at the trade level, the aqua or hydra, whatever it is. I can't remember.

Jack Truong

Operator

Yes, HydroDefense.

Simon Thackray

Analyst

Yes, HydroDefense. So is that now -- is that being rolled out?

Jack Truong

Operator

Yes. So it is a product that we just rolled out to the pro channel. Yes, as you know that in the retail channel is really, to cut into the planogram, is do that once a year. And so we have to wait until the time that they change the planogram within retail to be able to launch that into retail. And -- but that's just the first step. The other step is really about let me sure now that we can come out with the new interior products that would resonate well with those unmet need in the market here. I think I mentioned at the last earnings call is that our business -- 85% of our business in Europe is really interior business today, and 35% of our business in APAC is interior business. So there's a lot of know-how, a lot of the new product concept and opportunity that we can really now to bring together as a global team to come up with those new products. So I'm optimistic about that capability.

Simon Thackray

Analyst

Great, that's very helpful, Jack. Matt, just a quick one on the asbestos. Just a refresher, it's been a while. You're paying at 35% of operating cash flow. There was always an opportunity within the agreement for there to be step downs to 30% to 25% over time. What are the requirements to get to that? Is that feasible to get a step down in the payment? You're saying you've forked out $1.2 billion now and you've made an acquisition so the EBITDA's presumably gone up and the free cash flow presumably goes up.

Matthew Marsh

Analyst

Yes. Over time, at some point, there'll probably be an opportunity for that to step down. The requirement in the AFFA is that when the cash outflow from the fund is less than the annual contribution and cash inflow to the fund, when that occurs over a period of time, then we can start to take a step down in the contribution rate. So it's a formulaic approach. I think it will be some time still before that occurs. Certainly, the last couple of years are more positive trends, I'd say, with respect to cash flow. And last year was certainly a very good trend. But I think we're still a bit away before we see them.

Brook Campbell-Crawford

Analyst

Brook Campbell-Crawford from JPMorgan. Just on the 3% of volume growth in the fourth quarter, can you talk about how that progressed through the quarter. And if it continued into April, also how the order file is looking?

Jack Truong

Operator

Order file. The famous order file. As we discussed last quarter, it's really about -- we look at our -- our commercial transformation is going to take some time and we said back then, it would take us about 6 or 7 months in into the new fiscal year to gain traction. So at this point, I wouldn't expect our exterior growth to be materially different from what you've seen in the fourth quarter until around 6 months from now.

Lee Power

Analyst

Lee Power, Deutsche Bank. Jack, can you just talk a little bit about pricing in FY '20. I know there's a comment in the presentation you're satisfied about price positioning. What price increases, if any, have you got coming through?

Jack Truong

Operator

You want to take that, Matt?

Matthew Marsh

Analyst

Yes. Yes, we think price in fiscal '20 will be around 2%. So pretty similar to fiscal '19, I think it was at 3%. We didn't -- we haven't changed our approach in the way we do strategic pricing. It's the same process. We're still a value pricer. So that 2% naturally, we do through a series of products and region reviews where we're evaluating our price position versus our commercial objectives. So there's a range, if you look at our product portfolio and our region portfolio, you'd see a range around that in that 2%. Last year, that weighted average ended up being closer to 3%. This year, the weighted average or fiscal '20's weighted average will be closer to 2%. So we're still pretty satisfied overall with where we are on the strategic pricing. No real change on the tactical side. That 2% obviously includes a combination of the strategic price, plus what we think we're going to do in tactical this year. And we're obviously trying to align both the strategic and tactical pricing to the commercial transformation that we're doing. But we're pretty happy overall with where price is, and we think it will be around 2% for fiscal '20 for North America.

Lee Power

Analyst

And then just following on from Peter's question around this -- the changing approach to PDG in North America. Can you give an idea of like sales force turnover, if anything, and how that's been against your expectations as you push this new approach into your sales force?

Jack Truong

Operator

We -- probably the biggest part of the transformation we had was in the interior business. We usually have roughly 80 sales professionals who support the interior business. And majority of them is -- of our team is actually call on to the stores across the country. And the business model has really changed with the big boxes, and really those decisions to promote and to place products within the -- it's already done in Atlanta or in Charlotte. So what we did there is that we have to have a -- turnover over half of those folks so that we can reposition the business at the headquarters to really drive the account management. And then the -- with the head count that we have, then we use that to really hire more of the market development and business development professionals to really go into -- gain new -- convert new business from vinyl into fiber cement. So that is the shift that we did to make sure that we can drive the demand and then be able to drive the channel growth at the right quants.

Sophie Spartalis

Analyst

Sophie Spartalis from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Just following on from both of the questions on the sales force. You talked about key roles being filled. Last quarter, we heard about these hunters and gatherers. Can you just talk about, because that involved I think placement of people in different towns and it was quite a cultural shift. Can you just talk through how that is going and how much of that process is complete?

Jack Truong

Operator

Yes. So just to be clear is that the pull side, which is really the market demand that which Hardie has always been very strong at in terms of create the demand of fiber cement over vinyl, and that is an area we actually reinforced with more capability and more resources so that we can drive that demand. So that doesn't change. Not only it doesn't change, we just add more resources to it. And we also add more resources into the R&R. And that is an area that also a growth opportunity for us from the demand generation's perspective. Where we enhance the capability of sales team is really create big focus on the account management, the key account management. And that is where we need the sales professional who really understand how to manage our customers in terms of how to provide the services and capability of James Hardie to our channel partners so that they can make more money selling our products. And that is a skill set that we continue to add into the company. We -- I think I mentioned 3 -- at the last earnings call that we just hired a new Head of Sales for North America, and he's reporting to Sean Gadd, who is the Chief Commercial Officer. And he's [ Johnny Jacob ] is his name, and he's the one that now run the total sales organization in North America with a strong focus on account management as well as in the market development. And then within this organization, we built the new organization called sales operations. This is really about the analytics. This is really about the sales trained and to make sure that we have the right training across. This is about customers -- the inside sales, price management and then so on and so forth. And that is the new capability that we also built within the sales organization.

Sophie Spartalis

Analyst

Okay. So just in terms of that process, it seems to be still ongoing. Can you give us some time frame as to when all that will be bedded down and your sales function will be complete to the market?

Jack Truong

Operator

We would anticipate within 3 to 6 months.

Sophie Spartalis

Analyst

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up question, just in regards to Asia Pac, you mentioned in your commentary that the market has peaked. You've got your guidance there decreasing in FY '20. Can you maybe just talk through how much clarity you've got in terms of your order book here in Australia and Philippines given they're your key markets?

Jack Truong

Operator

We don't look at -- we don't have the -- a big visibility out into the order book as we would like. But in terms of how our teams -- we have a team, they're very focused on the primary demand in the marketplace. So they really know what the demand. And also, we have a very strong team that manage [ indiscernible ] work with our channel which is quite concentrated in Australia quite well. So they do have a good sense of how the markets is moving and more about how do we continue to create more demand of our product through the channel and also at the builders and contractors. So it is not a science yet, but it's certainly -- there's a good feel for how we are performing against the market. As you can see, in the fourth quarter, our business in Asia Pacific continued to perform well at 7% growth in volume. And they couldn't get there without the growth in Australia.

James Brennan-Chong

Analyst

James Brennan-Chong from UBS. Three months ago when we sat here last, we talked about customer perception issues and customer retention problems that you were having. I think at that time, you talked about that was costing about 3 percentage points of PDG. Three month's on just interested to know how has customer perceptions changed and where you are tracking against that against your expectations.

Jack Truong

Operator

Right. I think back then I said that we probably have about 2% to 3% erosion of our sales because we're not really managing that -- our current customers. I think during the past few months, our teams from the top of the company all the way down, that we have reached out to our customers at the -- from the CEO level down and met with them. And I think that was -- to be able to meet, as top to top and mirror image as a team together. That really helped to reinforce to our customers that we at James Hardie would like to engage in a different level than we had in the past. And that helped. But of course, just with any customer relationship and management, we have to demonstrate it every day until -- demonstrate with actions every day until our customers really believe that we are -- we really made a change from being a -- a lot more customer-focused now. So it is a journey. It's not going to be something that you can change people's mind overnight. It is an area as a company that we have to change to be able to get there.

James Brennan-Chong

Analyst

Right. So I guess the target for 3.5 -- 3 to 5 percentage points of PDG -- sorry, the target this year for 3 to 5 percentage points of PDG doesn't really assume that you get any more traction in terms of retaining those lost customers. There's no improvement. That's upside, is it? Or is there actually some improvement [ indiscernible ].

Jack Truong

Operator

I think, first and foremost, is that least for -- to start that we -- that would help minimize some of the erosion. And then next step is really about grow beyond that. That's a 2-step process. Any on the phone?

Unknown Executive

Analyst

Any questions on the phone?

Operator

Operator

And we have a question from Peter Wilson from Credit Suisse.

Peter Wilson

Analyst

Jack just on North Americas, if I could first just clarify one of your answers to the questions earlier that you said it will 6 to 7 months for [ summer ] initiatives to gain traction and hence, you wouldn't expect growth to be above fourth quarter. That would seem to imply that in order to achieve a 3% to 5% PDG target that you're going to be -- have to be right at the top end of that range for the second half, right?

Jack Truong

Operator

Yes. So we would anticipate that once we get our commercial transformation start to run, that we would see a stronger traction, yes.

Peter Wilson

Analyst

[ That would be the ] exit range, right at the top end of that range?

Jack Truong

Operator

In the second half.

Peter Wilson

Analyst

Okay. The last time we spoke -- the last time you reported, you sketched out [indiscernible] 10-year plan [indiscernible]. A big part of that's in the early years were to come from [ indiscernible ] wood. And [ firstly out of the ] early days, the numbers that you're reporting at -- [ the number ] that you've used in reporting don't really seem to illustrate that. So I'm just wondering kind of how confident are you on that and if there's any tangible progress that you can point to there?

Jack Truong

Operator

Can you repeat that.

Matthew Marsh

Analyst

Okay. Just to make sure I've got your question right. You're asking if our -- the commercial transformation that we talked about in February, which showed a gain over the next 10 years along our 35/90 strategy against both vinyl and wood-look alternatives requires required kind of early gains by substituting LP. And your question is the reported result for LP looks pretty similar to our reported result. So how does that statement compare to the most recent results. That's the essence of your question?

Peter Wilson

Analyst

Yes. And apologies, I think the first part of your answer got cut off there. But I guess my question is, I mean LP SmartSide Strand reported [ 8% ] volume growth in the third quarter -- sorry, in the March quarter, and on a 12-month basis, was well ahead of the numbers that you've printed as well. So it just doesn't, I guess, suggest that there's any progress in taking share off engineered wood?

Jack Truong

Operator

Well I think if you look at the last 12 months, our -- I think our growth rate between us and LP is about the same, I think about 5%. So having said that, is for us to continue to monitor our 35/90, it is important for us to be able to take more share from LP. It is a -- LP is a good competitor. So it is going to be a -- about execution of our plan and then continuing to adjust as necessary to make sure that we achieve our long-term objectives.

Peter Wilson

Analyst

Okay. And just at what point would you start to become worried if those relative numbers don't improve in your direction?

Jack Truong

Operator

Peter, I think it's too early to tell yet.

Peter Wilson

Analyst

Okay. And one last one, the Win With Color is a big part of achieving that, and you [ highlighted, say, ] an expanded range of colors. Am I wrong in saying that at the U.S. Investor Day last year, you outlined the plan to rationalize the number of colors that you are doing in order to improve your supply chain efficiency?

Jack Truong

Operator

That's correct. So we did rationalize quite a bit. And then what we offered, what we call the statement line, was at the core products that our customer can order are made to stock and that's just about roughly 15 SKUs. And then the others is about over 700 different colors that our customer can order with us. And that's really about the make to order. And so that kind of give our customers the capability and the ability to design any type of development that they would like. But it's really about us focused primarily on the 15 SKUs that we sell day in and day out to the market. And that is where the rationalization and the standardization that would improve our manufacturing efficiency and then -- and translate to cost reduction.

Operator

Operator

And we have another question from Daniel Kang from Citigroup.

Daniel Kang

Analyst

Just a quick one. Just in terms of the PDG growth rate, you mentioned that 1% [ indiscernible ] for the full year. Are you able to estimate the exit rate for fourth quarter. And while we're talking about competitive landscape, did notice that the import levels were quite strong into the March quarter. Are you seeing much impact from the increased import levels?

Jack Truong

Operator

Yes. I think the -- our fourth quarter exterior volume growth is about 3%, 3.5% and sort of compare into the third quarter of about 1%. So it's a -- the -- I mean, we don't want to look at really PDG on a quarterly basis because it's not really that exact science, so we kind of look at it from the rolling 12 months. If you look at the rolling 12 months for fiscal year '19, it's more than 1% -- plus 1% versus minus 2.5% a year ago. And then there's that momentum a little bit coming out of the fourth quarter. So it's a -- it has -- but in terms of any appreciable step change, it's not going to be materializing until we execute our commercial transformation to the fullest. And then relative to your question on the fiber cement -- go ahead, Daniel.

Daniel Kang

Analyst

[indiscernible]

Unknown Executive

Analyst

I think the line is cut off. [Technical Difficulty]

Daniel Kang

Analyst

So I don't -- I'm not actually picking up any of the feedback.

Matthew Marsh

Analyst

Yes, no, sorry, no one's speaking. Jack had asked if you had a follow-up question.

Daniel Kang

Analyst

Yes. The follow-up question was just in terms of the increase in input that we've seen in the March quarter. Are you seeing much of an impact there?

Jack Truong

Operator

You want to answer that, Matt.

Matthew Marsh

Analyst

On input cost?

Jack Truong

Operator

Yes.

Matthew Marsh

Analyst

Imports of FC. Yes, I mean we noted the same. No, we're not seeing any sort of significant change in the marketplace. The percent on -- I think the headline number, the percent in growth is a big number. It was like almost 30-something percent. But keep in mind, I'd say the comp that they're comping that off of is actually quite low from a year ago. So if you look at the import volume over a longer period of time, if you look at kind of where it's been on a quarterly basis over the last, call it, 3 years, it's still at a relatively low volume on a volume basis. It's at a low point in comparison to where some of the other quarters have gotten reported. So no, we're not seeing sort of anything unusual in the marketplace or anything that's concerning us or anything that we think has got us off strategy or off target.

Daniel Kang

Analyst

Very good, very good. And just also in terms of expectations for effective tax rate [ and CapEx for the full year? ]

Matthew Marsh

Analyst

You can in August. Yes, I mean I'm not going to guide on ETR for fiscal '20. Once we get a good sense of kind of how the year is going to play out, we'll talk about that in August. I'm not expecting material change. Okay, so it's not like the 14.9% number that we reported this quarter is going to change materially. It will move up and down, obviously, based on earnings and where those earnings occur. But that's not an artificially high or low number. We think that's a feature of the result going forward. And I'd say similarly on guidance for fiscal '20 we'll talk about that as we normally do as part of the August result. Oh, yes, for CapEx there's no change in prior guidance on CapEx for fiscal '20. So we expect that we'll spend somewhere around $200 million for fiscal '20. And then we'd think the next 2 years after that, fiscal '21 and '22, will be a step down from that probably closer to $150 million. We've largely gotten through our greenfield and brownfield capacity projects, we think, across the globe. Obviously, there's other opportunities that we'll explore. Particularly in Europe at some point, we'll add capacity both for fiber gypsum and as the fiber cement business grows. None of those are sort of included in that medium-term outlook because we don't expect them to occur in that medium-term outlook. So $200 million of CapEx in fiscal '20. And then '21 and '22 is a step down from that, probably around $150 million -- per year for each of those 2 years.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time, I'd like to hand the call back to the speakers for any closing remarks. Please continue.

Jack Truong

Operator

No, I think we both thank you all for coming. I think our fiscal year '19 was a solid result for our global business. We're going through a transformation in North America, commercial and our lean manufacturing, which we should expect to see the results throughout the year and fiscal year '20. Thank you.