William Christensen
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thanks, Samantha. Turning to Slide 11. I want to review our current market outlook and the assumptions supporting our expectations for the remainder of 2026. We continue to operate in a soft and uncertain demand environment. While the pace of year-over-year declines is beginning to moderate in certain areas, our outlook remains cautious and does not assume a meaningful near-term recovery. In North America, we continue to expect the overall windows and doors market to decline in the low- to mid-single digits. Within that outlook, we anticipate new single-family construction will be down low single digits, while repair and remodel activity will decline in the mid-single-digit range. We expect U.S. multifamily to increase significantly year-over-year. In Canada, conditions remain more challenging, and we continue to expect high single-digit declines due to broader economic softness and weak housing activity. In Europe, market conditions appear to be stabilizing, and we continue to expect volumes to be approximately flat year-over-year, while demand remains subdued. We are not expecting a further material deterioration from current levels. At the company level, our volume assumptions remain broadly aligned with the underlying markets. We continue to see benefits from improved service and customer engagement, which are supporting opportunities to regain share. At the same time, we remain disciplined in how we approach pricing and commercial activity given the continuing price/cost pressures across the business. Overall, our outlook is based on current demand levels and continued execution against the areas within our control. We are not relying on a market recovery to deliver our expectations. Instead, our focus remains on consistent service, disciplined cost management and improved operating performance. Turning to Slide 12. I'll walk through our updated full year 2026 guidance. We are raising the low end of our revenue outlook as improved service levels begin to translate into share recovery and new incremental business. We now expect net revenue in the range of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion compared to our previous range of $3.05 billion to $3.2 billion. As a result, we now expect core revenue to decline between 2% and 5% year-over-year compared to our previous expectation of a 3% to 6% revenue decline. We are also increasing the low end of our adjusted EBITDA guidance. We now expect adjusted EBITDA of $120 million to $150 million compared to our previous range of $100 million to $150 million. The improved revenue outlook is expected to flow through at an incremental margin of approximately 25% to 30%. We also expect additional productivity benefits from our continued focus on SG&A and broader cost management. These improvements are expected to be partially offset by continued inflation cost pressure. Turning to cash flow. We are lowering our full year expectations, primarily due to additional restructuring costs associated with rightsizing our SG&A structure and other onetime costs incurred during the year. We are partially offsetting these impacts through continued discipline on capital spending and now expect full year capital expenditures of approximately $85 million. As a result, we now expect operating cash flow of approximately $10 million and free cash flow to be a use of approximately $75 million for the year. Finally, our guidance continues to assume no significant portfolio changes. Turning to Slide 13. This chart bridges our 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $118 million to the updated midpoint of our 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $135 million. Starting with the market, we continue to expect volume mix to represent an approximately $25 million headwind. This reflects the ongoing softness across our end markets and remains unchanged from our previous expectations. The next 2 items reflect improving execution across the business. We now expect net share loss to be a $20 million headwind compared to $30 million previously. This improvement reflects the progress we are making on service and the resulting opportunities to regain business with our customers. We also now expect a total of approximately $120 million of productivity benefit compared to $110 million previously. This includes both the carryover benefit from our transformation initiatives and the impact of continued business rightsizing. The increase reflects stronger productivity, additional SG&A actions and our continued focus on aligning the cost structure with current demand. These improvements are partially offset by greater price/cost pressure. We now expect price/cost to be an approximately $50 million headwind compared to $40 million previously. The increase primarily reflects continued freight and material cost inflation that is still exceeding the benefit from pricing. We are managing these pressures closely, but as we have discussed, addressing persistent price/cost headwinds will require us to continue to work constructively with our customers. The remaining items represent a net headwind of approximately $8 million. This includes approximately $10 million of headwind from variable compensation and other timing-related factors, partially offset by favorable foreign exchange and other items. Taken together, these elements bridge to the midpoint of our updated adjusted EBITDA guidance. The improvement reflects stronger productivity and less share loss, which more than offset the additional price/cost pressure we now expect. I want to spend a few minutes on the progress we continue to make with service across our North America business. Turning to Slide 14. On-time in-full delivery, or OTIF, remains one of the most important measures of how well we are serving our customers. Over the past year, we have made significant progress in improving service performance and creating greater consistency across the network. As shown on the slide, OTIF declined modestly in June and remained below 90% in July. July performance was affected by temporary production disruptions related to Canadian wildfire smoke, which required us to shut down certain sites for a period of time. We also experienced challenges with several freight providers that did not deliver the level of service we require. The impact from the wildfire smoke has now largely subsided and our affected facilities have returned to normal operations. We are also actively addressing the freight challenges, working directly with our providers and taking the necessary actions to improve reliability. Based on the progress, we would expect OTIF to return above 90% going forward. Importantly, our customers are recognizing the quality and consistency of our service levels. Customer feedback continues to be positive, confidence in our ability to deliver has improved, and we are seeing additional opportunities to compete for and win back business that we had previously lost. The progress we have made reflects the work of our teams to improve execution, respond quickly when issues arise and build greater consistency across our operations. That stronger execution is also beginning to reshape our revenue trajectory. With service back to levels that meet customer expectations, we believe the business is better positioned to perform more in line with the market and benefit from normal market growth over time. We are encouraged by the progress we have made but need to improve consistency. Sustaining Europe's OTIF above 95%, while returning North America to above 90% and maintaining that performance will help us further strengthen customer relationships, support our share position and deliver improved performance over time. Finally, turning to Slide 15. I'll close by stepping back and highlighting the priorities that will continue to guide us through the remainder of the year. First, customer service remains at the center of our focus. We have made meaningful progress in improving consistency, responsiveness and delivery performance, and our customers are recognizing that improvement. Better service is helping us rebuild trust, strengthen relationships and create opportunities to regain business that we had previously lost. We need to maintain that momentum and continue delivering at the level our customers expect. Cash and cost management also remain critical priorities. We are laser-focused on addressing the upcoming maturities in order to strengthen our balance sheet and provide additional time to improve our business performance in choppy market conditions. We remain diligent on working capital, capital spending, cost control as well as the broader actions needed to preserve liquidity and improve free cash flow. Finally, I want to again thank our associates across JELD-WEN. We continue to operate in a difficult environment and the progress we are seeing would not be possible without their hard work, commitment and resilience. Our results are improving. Our customers are seeing the difference, and that progress is a direct reflection of the effort our teams are making every day. There is still more work to do, but we are moving in the right direction and are focused on building from here. With that, I'll turn the call over to James for questions.