William Christensen
Analyst · UBS
Thanks, Samantha. Turning to Slide 11. I want to walk through our market outlook for 2026 and the assumptions underlying our guidance. Importantly, our view of the market has not meaningfully changed from what we outlined previously in our fourth quarter 2025 results call. We continue to operate in a challenging and uncertain environment and our outlook reflects a cautious view rather than any expectation of a near-term recovery. In North America, we expect the overall windows and doors market to be down low to mid-single digits. Within that, we see new single-family construction down low single digits and repair and remodel down mid-single digits. We now expect U.S. multifamily to be up significantly year-over-year, while Canada continues to face more significant pressure with high single-digit declines, reflecting ongoing economic softness and continued weak housing activity. In Europe, conditions appear to be stabilizing. We expect volumes to be roughly flat year-over-year. Demand remains subdued, but we are not seeing further deterioration from current levels. At the company level, our volume assumptions are now more aligned with the underlying market. We continue to expect some impact from prior pricing actions but we are also beginning to see the benefits of improved service levels. Our guidance reflects a modest contribution from these service improvements while maintaining a clear focus on pricing discipline. Overall, our framework remains consistent. Our guidance is based on current demand levels with pricing actions largely in place and a continued focus on margin protection and execution rather than relying on an improvement in end market conditions. Turning to Slide 12. I I'll walk through our updated full year 2026 guidance. Overall, we are increasing our revenue outlook, holding our adjusted EBITDA range and maintaining cash flow expectations. We now expect net revenue in the range of $3.05 billion to $3.2 billion, up from our prior range of $2.95 billion to $3.1 billion. This reflects a modest benefit from improving service levels, which brings our company volume assumptions more in line with the underlying market. April sales have been in line with our expectations, which supports the updated view we are sharing today. As a result, we now expect core revenue to decline between 3% and 6% year-over-year compared to 5% to 10% previously. The adjusted EBITDA range remains unchanged at $100 million to $150 million. While the higher revenues progress, we are seeing incremental price/cost headwinds relative to our prior assumptions, which offset the benefit from improved volumes. Our outlook continues to reflect higher pricing and a focus on execution in a still changing demand environment. On cash flow, we continue to expect operating cash flow of approximately $40 million and a free cash flow use of approximately $60 million. We still anticipate capital expenditures of approximately $100 million that are largely maintenance in nature. Our guidance assumes no portfolio changes. However, as noted, we continue to evaluate strategic options, including our review of the European business, and additional actions to improve liquidity. Turning to Slide 13. This chart bridges our 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $118 million to the midpoint of our 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $125 million. Starting on the left, market volume/mix remains a headwind of approximately $25 million, reflecting the continued pressure we see across our end markets. The next item is net share loss which we now expect to be a $30 million headwind, improved from our prior expectation of $60 million. This reflects early progress on service and a more stable customer response as those improvements begin to take hold. We now expect a greater headwind from price/cost, which we anticipate to be approximately $40 million, compared to $10 million previously. The environment remains highly competitive and as our service improves, we've been more active commercially, including targeted promotional activity to regain traction with certain customers. In addition, we are seeing higher-than-expected cost pressure, most notably in freight. These external and commercial pressures are offset by actions within our control. We continue to expect approximately $75 million of benefit from rightsizing and base productivity, reflecting actions that are largely executed and will be realized over the course of the year. We also expect about $35 million of carryover benefit from our transformation initiatives, including automation, footprint optimization and systems improvements as those efforts continue to move in a more steady state operating model. The remaining items include approximately $10 million of headwind from compensation and other timing-related factors, partially offset by foreign exchange and other items. Taken together, these elements bridge to the midpoint of our 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. While the mix of headwinds has shifted, the overall earnings outcome remains unchanged, reflecting both the ongoing pressure in the market and the impact of the actions we are taking to manage through it. Before we wrap up, I want to step back and highlight the progress we are making on service across our North America business. On Time, in Full delivery or OTIF, is a key customer metric and it is where we have been intensely focused. As you can see on Slide 14, our OTIF performance has improved significantly over the past year, moving to over 90%. This is a meaningful step change in how we are serving our customers, and we are seeing that reflected in the feedback we are getting across the business. Customers are noticing the improvement. We are seeing better engagement, more consistent order patterns and importantly, increased opportunities to quote and compete for new business as our service levels improve. This progress is being driven by both stronger execution and deliberate investment. Operationally, we have now deployed our A3 management system across the network, which has improved how we identify issues, solve problems at the root cause and maintain consistency as well as ownership at the plant level. At the same time, we have made conscious decisions to prioritize service, including higher transportation spend, such as shipping partial loads when needed and maintaining staffing levels despite lower volumes. These are targeted investments to support service and rebuild trust with our customers. We believe that as service continues to improve, that trust will translate into volume recovery and share gains over time. That said, we are not finished. Our goal is to consistently operate above 95% OTIF and reaching that level will require further progress, particularly with our vendor base and how we manage special order products. Overall, we are encouraged by the progress we are making. Service is improving, customers are responding, and we are beginning to see that translate into commercial opportunities. Turning to Slide 15. I'll close by stepping back and putting our progress into perspective. Over the past year, we've made significant improvements in how we serve our customers. We have invested in service, strengthened our operating discipline and focused the organization on the metrics that matter most. Cash and liquidity remain a priority. We are taking actions to preserve cash, and we continue to evaluate opportunities to strengthen liquidity and maintain flexibility in an uncertain environment. Our strategic review of Europe is ongoing, and we continue to evaluate other opportunities to improve liquidity and strengthen financial flexibility. Across the business, we are also aligning labor with current market conditions while continuing to invest in the organization for the long term. That includes work to improve culture and engagement. We recently completed a company-wide baseline employee engagement survey, and our managers are actively using that feedback to create individual action plans focused on local level engagement. Importantly, our customers are seeing the difference. Service levels have improved, performance is more consistent, and we are beginning to rebuild trust. That is showing up in better engagement and increasing opportunities to compete for new business. However, we are not yet where we need to be. There's more work to do and we know that this will not happen overnight, but we are moving in the right direction and starting to see the early benefits. At the same time, we are managing the business with a clear view of current market conditions. We are aligning the cost structure to demand, maintaining pricing discipline and staying focused on execution. As I close, I want to recognize the work of our associates across JELD-WEN. The progress we are seeing is the result of their effort and focus every day. Our customers are noticing the improvement and it is important that we continue to build on that momentum. Overall, we are becoming a more consistent and disciplined company. We are improving service, rebuilding customer confidence and managing the business with a clear focus on cash and execution. With that, I'll turn the call back over to James for questions.