George R. Oliver - Johnson Controls International Plc
Management
Yeah, Gautam. I think to understand the third and fourth quarter, I think we need to drill into the second quarter and then I'll walk you to what you can expect here in the third and fourth quarter. So in the second quarter, the guidance we provided was for a modest increase in the margin rate in the second quarter. And so what happened was, when you look at the margin that came through we're getting tremendous productivity in costs savings as it relates with the synergies, that's coming through, that's 50 basis points. The investments that we're making both 30 basis points and when you drill into that, I would tell you across the board we're getting great traction with those investments. Whether it be in the applied space with our chiller investments, whether it be in the DX space with the work that we're doing in resi and in small commercial, in the control space with our launch of Metasys 8.1 and there's the Verasys platform. And then across the Fire and Security businesses with the new investments we're making where in spite of the pressure that we've had with the heavy industrial, high-hazard we continue to make great progress there. The second piece is that we had a project, a very large project that we took a significant charge here in the second quarter that has impacted our margin rate by about 20 basis points. And then the last, I think, is most important as we project third and fourth quarter, is the unfavorable mix, which is about 30 basis points. And when you think of that mix, our growth, the 3% growth that we achieved in the second quarter was driven by install. And as you know the install revenues come through at a lower margin. And that, at the same time, when our product business was down about 1%. So as you project going forward and that was roughly 30 basis points which drove the 30 basis point decline in total. So as you project the third quarter and fourth quarter, we have inflection in our products, we see continued momentum in the legacy BE product businesses. We start to see, we – sequentially we are seeing growth in the Fire and Security product businesses and they'll continue to accelerate in the third quarter and fourth quarter and so that is good mix coming through. And then as the Alex talked about, seasonally we start to get our pickup in service revenues in the third quarter and fourth quarter which is good mix. And then with the, just the nature of the business being higher volume in the third quarter and fourth quarter, we get nice leverage on that volume. And so as we look at now third quarter and fourth quarter, we're positioned to deliver about a 90-basis point improvement in margin rate. And that ultimately supports the overall margin rate that we projected for the company for the year.