Timothy Main
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thank you, Forbes. Please turn to Slide 15. The first half of fiscal 2011 has been a great start to the full fiscal year. Revenues increased 31% year-over-year and a little over $8 billion. All three business segments that we report today, Diversified Manufacturing Services, High Velocity and Enterprise & Infrastructure are exceeding their long-term growth targets, particularly Diversified Manufacturing Services, in the most recent quarter grew 47% year-over-year. We're particularly heartened by the fact that Diversified Manufacturing Services has increased to 35% of our overall business, and that's from 30% about a year ago. So a very rapid growth in this area and increasing the richness of our portfolio mix. Enterprise & Infrastructure is resuming its growth rate and, again, will likely exceed our long-term targets this year. The new wins are improving the diversification in this segment. I'll talk about that in a few moments. High velocity, we were challenged in fiscal '10 to drive operating margins to the targeted range of 2% to 2.5%. We now have two consecutive quarters where the High Velocity area performed within the long-term targeted range. And we're very happy, Forbes and I are both pleased, to report that free cash flow in the first half of this year is significantly above where it was in the first half of fiscal '10, with cash flow from operations in the most recent quarter $450 million, which is, I think, a pretty good performance. Turning to Slide 16, please, on the recap in Diversified Manufacturing Services. In the second fiscal quarter, we enjoyed 47% growth over the same period in fiscal 2010. 2011 growth is very likely to exceed now our long-term growth target of 20% to 30%. Operating margin remains in the targeted range of 6% to 8%, and we're seeing continued growth with guidance of 6% sequential growth in terms of our guidance in Q3. So we're very pleased with the performance in Diversified Manufacturing Services. Turn to Page 17, Enterprise & Infrastructure is starting to demonstrate significant growth, and we enjoyed 19% year-over-year growth in our second fiscal quarter. Operating margins continue to be at the high end of our targeted range of 4% to 4.5%, actually we exceeded that margin in our second fiscal quarter and expectations are that we'll continue to operate within that range. We're seeing an increase in contribution of business mix from our storage and telecommunications sector. In fact, we would look for this storage and telecommunications portion of Enterprise & Infrastructure to grow to as high as 70% of the overall sectors business by the second half of the year, and expect 8% sequential growth in fiscal Q3. So very, very strong growth there based on some new business wins in the targeted areas, particularly telecommunications and storage. Turn to Slide 18, please. In High Velocity, we did see 27% year-over-year growth. Operating margins at 2% are within the range, so two consecutive quarters of being within the targeted range of 2% to 2.5%. We're particularly happy with that performance given our second fiscal quarter is typically a very poor quarter because of the seasonal down, and going through a 15% sequential decline and being able to maintain operating margins at 2% and within the range is, I think, underscores our ability to run the full fiscal year within our targeted long-term range. Expect the second half to show consistent results with the first half and forecasting guidance to a 3% sequential growth rate. So taking that all into account, will you turn to Slide 19, please. This provides a look at our portfolio and growth mix and how we look at the second half of the year. Hopefully, help you how to characterize the second half of the year relative to the first half. Our first half actual results are a little over $8 billion, and taking the midpoint of our guidance in the third quarter and applying our long-term growth rates to the fourth fiscal quarter, that results in the second half revenue level of $8.4 billion. This is consistent with the chart that we reviewed in the last quarter's conference call. Just helping you build a model for this year. That results in a full fiscal year of about $16.4 billion. I think it's interesting to note that if we applied the long-term growth targets onto that $16.4 billion, 5% to 10% in High Velocity and Enterprise & Infrastructure, 20% to 30% in Diversified Manufacturing Services, and based on the business mix we'll have, at the end of this fiscal year, the company would reach a $20 billion revenue level by fiscal 2013. So we're very happy to be moving in that direction and seeing significant growth in Diversified Manufacturing Services in particular. Turning to Slide 20, please. Our business transformation is well underway and I think showing up in the results, the chart on the right, depicts our core operating margin and core EBITDA margin. And tracking that from fiscal '09 through the first half of fiscal 2011, over a 200 basis point improvement in both metrics, and a very significant growth year-over-year. We’re very stressing a great deal on customer service and operational performance. Some of the improvement in margins, particularly from the '09 levels, was due to growth in the business of scale and some of it is due to portfolio mix, but a significant part of the improvement in margins is due to really focusing on operational excellence, lean manufacturing and higher levels of productivity. We continue to focus on differentiated services and capabilities, particularly in targeted markets like Healthcare & Life Sciences and other areas of Diversified Manufacturing Services. And we see a growing scale and advancing share in targeted markets, which tends to be a virtuous cycle of lower costs, higher capabilities and greater share. Turning to Slide 21, please. Just to kind of recap near term our challenges and opportunities, clearly the near-term challenges, one significant near-term challenge could be the potential for near-term supply disruptions due to the natural disaster in Japan. Right now, it's too early to accurately assess the impact to supply. We're working very closely with our suppliers and customers to mitigate any potential impact. Information that we are now in the 11th day since the tragic event took place, I think you should appreciate that some suppliers are simply scrambling to get their employees back to work, determine if and what level of damage has been done to their operations and when they can resume supply. Information is coming in rapidly, and we are getting better information. But again, it's too early to accurately assess what impact this might have to our results in the third fiscal quarter. We thought the best thing for us to do was to give you an honest appraisal using our conventional, conservative guidance, give you as accurate a picture as we can of the shape and health of the business today, and excluding the potential impact that this might have. We'll be making, just to talk about the Q&A session today, we will not be making any specific comments regarding particular customers or suppliers. I know you're very interested to know what suppliers might be most impacted, what business sectors might be most impacted, what customers might be -- suffer to the highest level of consequence. That is completely speculative at this point. There's no reason for us to think that Jabil's experience, if there is a significant supply chain disruption, that our experience would be any different than anybody else in the electronics industry, no better and no worse. In fact, I think our diversification probably helps us in that regard. And we're not in a position to predict or help you predict what areas of the industry may be least affected or most affected. So we will be making -- we will have no responses to these specific questions in that regard. Second near-term challenge in Italy and France. We're working on a sustainable, profitable business plan. We think the impact of margins will be minimal. And this was a difficult decision that we made on behalf of significant strategic customers, as well as protecting our reputation within the communities that we do business. I think it provides a significant opportunity for us, though, to differentiate Jabil's customer service during a period of high stress, both in terms of acquiring sites that were struggling on behalf of strategic customers, as well as proactively working with our customers and suppliers to mitigate and minimize any supply chain disruption due to the events in Japan. I think it's an opportunity for Jabil to use its skilled resources in the area of component engineering and design resources, as well as our global supply chain management capabilities, particularly those capabilities in Asia. Jabil's also well capitalized to support customers during this period of high stress. And we think it's a great reason for the customers that we serve to do business with large scale, well-capitalized and well-funded companies like Jabil over other players in the industry that may not be as well positioned to support them during this period of high stress. We take this opportunity to fine-tune our service, support customers and, pursuant to that, build market share and scale in targeted markets. Our growth in Diversified Manufacturing Services is exceeding our long-term targets and we're building share in Enterprise & Infrastructure and very gratified by that. So in summary, there are some near-term challenges. There's no reason to think that those near-term challenges will be extended into any type of permanent challenge. In fact, Jabil has operated in highly-allocated component markets many times, in my experience at Jabil. And there will be short-term disruptions, may or may not be severe, we don't know at this point. They are temporary disruptions, and there's no reason to think that it will be any better or worse for Jabil, and no reason to think that it will extend beyond the next quarter or two. So it's a great opportunity for Jabil to differentiate ourselves with customers and the industry and to continue to grow on target markets. And in summary, our long-term strategic plan is on track and we're very pleased with our progress.