Jerry Rebel
Analyst · Barclays Capital
Thank you, Linda, and good morning. Now all of my comments this morning regarding per share amount refers to diluted earnings per share. Third quarter earnings were $0.44 per share compared to $0.57 last year. As you saw in the press release, third quarter results were negatively impacted by approximately $0.06 per share by several items that were not included in our previous guidance for fiscal year 2010. We had three items that impacted our SG&A line. Impairment charges of approximately $0.03 per share, and mark-to-market adjustments on investment supporting our non-qualified retirement plans of approximately $0.02 per share were partially offset by insurance recovery related to Hurricane Ike of approximately $0.02 per share. An increase in workers' compensation reserves negatively impacted payroll and employee benefit costs by approximately $0.02 per share. Higher workers' compensation costs are expected to continue in the fourth quarter as the cost per claim is trending higher, even though our number of claims is trending down. We wrote off approximately $500,000 in deferred financing costs in connection with the refinancing of our debt during the quarter. The charges included an interest expense and negatively impacted earnings per share by approximately $0.01 in the quarter. The 9.4% decrease in same-store sales was 1.4% lower than the midpoint of our guidance, and our restaurant operating margin was approximately 200 basis points below our internal expectations. 50 basis points of that was due to the increase in workers' compensation reserves, and the remainder was due primarily to deleverage from lower same-store sales. Our average check declined approximately 2.5% during the quarter as value promotions had a negative impact, which more than offset price increases of 1.2%. Versus last year, restaurant operating margins decreased 420 basis points to 14.2% of sales. We estimate that sales deleverage negatively impacted third quarter margins by approximately 280 basis points. Adjustments to workers' compensation reserves accounted for approximately 100 basis points of decline versus last year. And commodity inflation of approximately 2% was in line with our expectations, but negatively impacted margins as compared to prior year when we experienced about a 1% deflation in commodity costs. Even though SG&A was impacted by several items discussed in the press release, our refranchising strategy and planned overhead reduction resulted in about a $3.2 million decrease in the quarter and $12.3 million year-to-date versus last year. With the sale of 58 Jack in the Box restaurants, we crossed the 50% milestone and we're 51% franchised at quarter end, and we remain on track to achieve our goal of being in the 70% to 80% franchised by the end of fiscal 2013. We do not provide any financing for the seven deals that closed during the quarter, and we are maintaining our full year guidance with respect to the number of restaurants we expect to sell, although there is one large transaction included in our guidance where the closing is less certain. During the quarter, we opportunistically acquired 16 franchised Qdoba restaurants in the Boston area, which is consistent with our strategy of company-operated growth in larger, more urban markets. At a total purchase price of approximately $8.1 million, we acquired these restaurants for less than the build-out costs. Before I review our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year, I'll provide an update to our commodity cost outlook for the remainder of the year. Overall, we expect commodity costs for the full year to decrease by approximately 1%, reflecting our fourth quarter expectations of approximately 4% inflation compared to prior year when commodity costs declined by 5.5%. The increase in the fourth quarter is being driven by higher beef costs, which account for approximately 20% of our spend and higher pork costs, which account for approximately 5% of our spend. We expect beef costs to be up approximately 15% in the fourth quarter compared to a decrease of 17% in last year's fourth quarter. We have 50% of our import 90s covered through October at $1.54 per pound, with some additional coverage spread into February of next year versus approximately $1.30 last year and current market price is in the $1.52 to $1.55 range. Pork costs are expected to be up more than 30% in the fourth quarter. The increase in beef and pork costs will be partially offset by lower chicken, shortening and bakery costs, which, combined, account for approximately 23% of our spend and are expected to be about 7% lower for the fourth quarter. Now let's move on to our guidance for the balance of the year. For the fourth quarter, we expect same-store sales for Jack in the Box company restaurants to decrease 4.5% to 5.5%, and system-wide same-store sales in Qdoba to increase from 3% to 4%. Our same-store sales guidance reflects trends we've experienced in the first four weeks of the quarter. For the full year, same-store sales for Jack in the Box company restaurants are expected to decrease approximately 9% and increase approximately 2% at Qdoba. We've reduced our full year guidance for restaurant operating margins at a low 14% range, reflecting the impact of our lower sales guidance and the corresponding deleverage of approximately 90 points, as well as higher commodities and workers' compensation. As a result of the lower sales and margin guidance and the items that impacted the third quarter, earnings per share are expected to range from $1.55 to $1.75 per share. Lastly, I want to talk for a moment about the refinancing we completed in June. Under the terms of our new agreement, we had a $400 million five-year revolving credit facility, of which, $148 million was outstanding at the end of the quarter and a $200 million five-year bank term loan. The interest rate was LIBOR plus 225 basis points to 275 basis points with no floor, and the current spread is at 250 basis points. The spread is based upon our debt to EBITDA ratio. The new agreement provides us with a longer-term capital structure to support our strategic plan. We've also increased flexibility, with a greater portion now under the revolver and substantially higher basket for returning cash to shareholders of up to $500 million. We also have substantially lower required principal amortization than our previous agreement, with only $40 million of required payments through calendar 2012. That concludes our prepared remarks. I'd now like to turn the call over to Stacy to open up for questions.